Krispy Kreme 盈利预测合营企业投资和权购回的财务分析

1、毕 业 设 计（论 文） krispy kreme 盈利预测，合营企业投资和权购回的财务分析学生姓名： 学号： 专业： 财务管理 所在学院： 指导教师： 职称： 摘 要像许多连锁餐厅，krispy kreme的甜甜圈的收入来自公司拥有的两家直营店和加盟商。 2000年4月首次公开招股之后，几家加盟商进入合资企业，开发新的krispy kreme的甜甜圈店。在某些情况下，该公司还收购了其加盟的特许经营权店。这种情况为评估分析师krispy kreme提供对2月3日，2002财务报表盈利预测的机会。通过分析公司的合资企业和购回专营权的脚注披露，你会找出与krispy kreme的业务前景潜力没有在

2、分析报告中讨论的问题。关键词：财务报表分析;经营战略;权益法;专营权;分析师的预测1 案例介绍1999年12月krispy kreme的宣布其首次公开募股计划，该公司是一个有宗教信的公司。两年后，它是一种文化现象。为迎接新店开张，公司急于吸引客户。2001年3月krispy kreme的店在丹佛附近开张，丹佛地处交通要塞。半年后，2001年10月六家新的甜甜圈店在西雅图开幕。在他的品尝第一个热釉面甜甜圈的味道时，一个客户惊呼：“它喜欢吃甜食。”另一位顾客说，“我认为甜甜圈不像温暖的棉花糖，融化在你的嘴”（mulady 2001年）。在西雅图店开幕一周的销售是454 000美元，几乎是开放范奈斯

3、本周在1999年9月的销售236 000美元的两倍和是近四年高达一九九八年3月农民开放在拉斯维加斯121 000美元一周的销售;2002年3月8日，krispy kreme的甜甜圈宣布，截止其第四季度结束，2002年2月3日（4q02）公司每股0.14美元，超过分析师的预算。其截至2月3日，2002年年财务报表每股收益（eps）0.45美元，上年是0.27美元。 krispy kreme的2002财年净的利润率为6.9，4.9fy01和fy00的2.7相比，而其营业利润率增加从2002年的7.8到10.9，在fy01和fy00的4.9。在这种积极的表现之后，krispy kreme的管理提出的

4、有针对性的经营利润率从10至15，并预测2003财年每股收益将增加至每股0.62美元。公司价值是投资者的回报与krispy kreme的股票价格和明年的盈利67倍。华尔街分析师预期“krispy kreme的仍然是一个强大和不断增长的公司在今后许多年里”然而，在未来三年内，krispy kreme的成功故事改变了。经过两年多年的盈利增长，krispy kreme的重申其2003财年和2004财年的财务报表和报告在2005财年和2006财年的巨额损失。几个krispy kreme的专营权及附属公司申请破产保护。证券交易委员会调查中的会计差错和投资者的诉讼，其四面楚歌的首席执行官scott利文古德

5、，于2005年1月辞职。krispy kreme的股票价格下跌了8.78美元，2005年1月31日和10月25日，2005年达到4.05美元。krispy kreme的前景下降可以归因于许多因素，例如，osullivan2005;汤普森和shah2006年，安德森2008年。这项研究争辩，krispy kreme的投资在合资企业和专营权回购的财务分析会透露了其中的一些问题，才最终反映在股票价格。案件始于2002财年的krispy kreme的历史背景，通过描述。接下来，我提供和讨论krispy kreme的2002财年的财务报表和10 - k表格和分析师预测2002财年的盈余公告后发出的摘录。

6、预计的损益表反映krispy kreme的历史表现模式和管理销售和新店开张预测为基础。在提交的财务信息分析师在他们的预测，我目前的脚注披露有关合资和特许经营的回购的，以本公司的投资为标准。 krispy kreme的2002财年的财务报表，包括它的两个综合合资企业和六个松散权益法合资的细节丰富的信息。分析这些脚注披露应该导致分析师的krispy kreme的2002财年的业绩和未来的前景更加复杂和细致入微的。1.1公司背景及描述成立于1937年在北卡罗莱纳州，其热原釉面甜甜圈krispy kreme的是著名的，产生的热和即食在其专卖店。由该公司提供20多个品种的溢价甜甜圈，截至2002年2月3

7、日有218个 krispy kreme的商店，在美国有75个公司，在东南亚主要经营的商店由143个专营店组成。其门店每一个甜甜圈工厂的生产能力从4000打甜甜圈到每天超过10,000打。1.2公司历史之前，其公开发售krispy kreme的历史可追溯到大萧条，当公司创始人弗农鲁道夫开始在一个美国肯塔基州帕迪尤卡，面包店店由他的伯父，以实玛利安德森拥有工作。安德森已取得的权利的酵母提出甜甜圈配方，当他购买乔lebeau也带来了与他从新奥尔良的配方，法国厨师的面包店。在未来的几年中，鲁道夫的家族在南部城市开设批发甜甜圈面包店。 1937年鲁道夫离开他家的糕点生意，开始研究他的甜甜圈配方。最终，他

8、在winston - salem，北卡罗来纳州开设第一家krispy kreme的甜甜圈店。鲁道夫的初衷是krispy kreme的一个区域性的批发业务，提供当地的餐馆和咖啡馆的面团螺母。后来开始停止提供给面包店，人们询问他们是否可以购买热甜甜圈，然而，鲁道夫开始直接向客户销售热原釉面甜甜圈。 在20世纪40年代，krispy kreme授予其第一家专营权，在邻近的南方市场。作为“特许经营协会”，后来被描述这些特许经营权的业主，须做出一切必要的资本投资来经营门店。 krispy kreme的店是通过出售特许经营牌照，能够实现无显著投资。最初增长，加盟从头开始自己的甜甜圈。为了提高一致性，本公司

9、最终出售公司生产的干甜甜圈组合，公司开发的甜甜圈制造设备的专营店。后来，在20世纪60年代，krispy kreme的店通过一个公司拥有的存储战略，再次集中批发糕点生意。在1973年鲁道夫把房地产出售给比阿特丽斯食品公司。比阿特丽斯尝试改变甜甜圈配方和添加新产品，如三明治的菜单，但以失败告终。一组原特许经营协会在1982年，经过多年的含辛茹苦的销售，通过收购杠杆收购该公司。该公司花了，其余大部分这十年还清的杠杆收购债务和不断增长的业务集中在当地的杂货店和超市卖甜甜圈通过两家公司直营店和特许经营直营店收入。到1996年初，该公司已在运行96个 krispy kreme的店，由53个国有单位和43

10、个专营店组成。在这些商店销售混合平均零售大概20和80的批发。不幸的是，自1989年以来企业的收入已经停滞在110至120万美元的范围内。该公司仍然是其所有商店位于美国东南部的区域公司。要重振增长，公司重新调整其战略，从一个强调场外销售的策略，以促进在krispy kreme的网点的零售额。圆环大小增加了40和商店进行了重新设计，使店内甜甜圈制造过程中完全可见。与此同时，该公司发起了一个新的“区域开发”特许经营计划，以扩大全国krispy kreme品牌。打开个人商店出售特许经营权，该公司开始销售打开多个krispy kreme的存储在指定的领土内的独家特许经营权。特许经营协议，要求每个地区的

11、开发，在各自领域内，在指定的时间内打开一个新的商店规定的数额。在1996年6月，在纽约市第一krispy kreme的店开业。到2000年初，开发面积已开设了37个新的商店，并承诺五年内开130家店在其领土内另一。本公司及其特许经营联营公司还开辟了新的商店，krispy kreme的网点总数增加至144个。 1996年和2000年间，年收入翻了一番，达到220万美元，利润增加600万美元。1.3首次公开发行股票和股价表现2000年4月4日krispy kreme的甜甜圈开始在纳斯达克出售，该股票的代号是krem。该公司向公众发行3.45亿股首次公开募股9.34亿股，向现有股东以换取在公司的旧股

12、（包括5.2亿股，16名管理人员和董事发出）。在其初始登记表，krispy kreme的表示，它预计将使用来自首次公开发售所得款项净额（1）偿还借款;（2）向现有股东派发资金;（3）改造和搬迁旧公司的直营店;（4 ）投资组合的生产能力，支持扩展;（5）投资在合资企业与加盟商;（6）财政一般经营活动。在每股21.00美元的首次公开招股超额认购，价格迅速上涨价值。一年后，本公司根据新的股票代码kkd在纽约证券交易所开始抛售股票。通过二二年三月八日，krispy kreme公布其2002财年年度报告的日期，股票分割的两倍和它的价格已攀升一个联合国的分裂基础0.8 brean穆雷研究额定krispy

13、kreme的股票分析师为41.32美元每股或165.28美元，一个“购买”一个目标价为每股48.00美元的。在股票价格的787，超过这个为期两年的增加是相当句话可以考虑它发生，而标准普尔500指数下跌超过22。在股票价格的上升，正好与公司的盈利能力不断提高的期望。大多数分析师的预测在2000年5月，预计在fy01和0.20美元，2002财年的0.25美元分割调整后按年率的每股收益。原来这些年的实际每股收益将在2001年0.27元，在2002财年0.47美元。展品2-4目前krispy kreme的资产负债表，损益表和现金流量表，五年，2002年2月3日结束。2 经营分部kreme的一贯划分为三

14、类其收入来源：公司拥有门店可生产甜甜圈和互补性产品直接销售给客户，特许经营业务，产生版税和费用由加盟商收入，和kkm的库存，供应销售收入和设备加盟商。截至2002年2月3日，五年，每年的折旧和摊销费用以外的收入和直接经营开支。2.1公司商店经营2002年2月3日krispy kreme的店拥有75家门店。这些公司拥有的商店大多是1937年和1996年之间，在东南亚和批发面包店设计。这些店通过关闭楼宇销售产生的大部分销售量比大多数新的krispy kreme的店更大的。2002年2月3日公司在费城拥有9家连锁店和门店，在北加州有两家店，这两个领域的开发商在krispykreme多数所有权权益的合

15、资经营。公司门店经营收入增加了266.2万美元，在2002财年的213.7万美元在2001财，同比增长24.6。可比店面销售额增长11.7。收入增长主要是由于双方的处所和场外销售渠道的销售强劲增长。楼宇销售的增长主要是为更多的客户拜访，推出新产品，和品牌意识的不断增加，由于部分场外销售计划的扩大。该公司还实施了在2002财年第一季度的零售价提高。公司店面销售也积极影响，巩固的销售收入和费用在北加州的9家连锁店和在费城的两家门店在该公司拥有多数股权，并重新获得6个专营店，在萨凡纳，查尔斯顿和巴尔的摩。这些收购有更全面的描述后来的情况下。2.2特许经营联营公司截至2002年2月3日，krispy

16、kreme的23家专营权的联营公司经营的52家门店。特许经营联营公司通常是15年的许可协议，允许他们经营店krispy kreme的系统使用一个特定的领土内的缔约方。联营公司支付特许权使用费，楼宇销售的3.0和1.0，所有其他销售与自有品牌产品的销售，其中有没有版税除外。他们并不需要做出贡献、公共关系或广告。在2000年的4月特许经营联营公司股东之前的初始公开发行专营权协议，延长为20年期以下，提供并在其后自动续期五年期间，除非任何一方终止以前。有两个例外，联营公司没有义务在其领土内的其他商店发展。虽然该公司并不打算授权联营公司的许可协议条款下的任何新的专营权，首次公开招股后的20年的合同延长

17、确保将涉及两个krispy kreme的类型的加盟商多年。financial analysis of krispy kremes earnings forecasts, joint venture investments, and franchise repurchasesabstractlike many restaurant chains, krispy kreme doughnuts earns revenues from both company-owned stores and from franchisee-owned stores. following its april2000

18、 ipo, krispy kreme doughnuts entered into several joint ventures with franchisees to develop new stores. in some situations, the company also re-acquired franchise rights from its franchisees. this case provides you with the opportunity to assess analyst forecasts of krispy kremes earnings following

19、 the release of its february 3, 2002financial statements. through analysis of footnote disclosures on the companys joint ventures and repurchased franchises, you will identify potential problems with krispy kremes business outlook that were not discussed in the analyst reports. keywords: financial s

20、tatement analysis; business strategy; equity method; ration alyssums; franchises; analyst forecasts1 case introductionwhen krispy kreme announced its initial public offering plans in december 1999, the company was a cult favorite. two years later, it was a cultural phenomenon. eager customers would

21、camp overnight to greet new store openings. when krispy kreme debuted near denver in march 2001, traffic was snarled for hours. six months later, cars lined up in six rows to order doughnuts in october 2001 at the opening of its new seattle store. after his first taste of a hot glazed doughnut, one

22、customer exclaimed “it was like eating sweet air.” another customer stated, “i dont think of them as doughnuts; they melt in your mouth, like warm cotton candy” (mulady 2001). the seattle outlets opening week sales were $454,000, almost twice as high as the $236,000 opening week sales in van nuys in

23、 september 1999 and almost four times as high as the $121,000 opening week sales in las vegas in march 1998 glass and farmer 2002; glass and ma 2000 .on march 8, 2002, krispy kreme doughnuts announced that it earned $0.14 per share for its fourth quarter ended february 3, 2002 (4q02), beating consen

24、sus analyst estimates by one penny. its earnings per share (eps) for the fiscal year ended february 3, 2002 fy02 were $0.45, compared with $0.27 the prior year. krispy kremes net profit margin for fy02 was 6.9 percent, compared with 4.9 percent in fy01 and 2.7 percent in fy00, while its operating ma

25、rgin increase din fy02 to 10.9 percent from 7.8 percent in fy01 and 4.9 percent in fy00. in the wake of this positive performance, krispy kreme management raised its targeted operating margin from 10percent to 15 percent and forecast that fy03 eps would increase to $0.62 per share. investors rewarde

26、d krispy kreme with a stock price that valued the company at 67 times next years earnings. wall street analysts expected “krispy kreme to remain a strong and growing company for many years to come”(heaney and ugliest 2002). during the next three years, however, the krispy kreme success story underwe

27、nt some revisions. after two more years of earnings growth, krispy kreme restated its fy03 and fy04financial statements and reported large losses in fy05 and fy06.2several krispy kreme franchises and subsidiaries filed for bankruptcy protection.3its embattled ceo, scott livengood, resigned in januar

28、y 2005 amid sec investigations for accounting errors and investor lawsuits. krispy kremes stock price declined to $8.78 by january 31, 2005 and reached $4.05 on october25, 2005.待添加的隐藏文字内容3the decline of krispy kremes prospects can be attributed to many factors e.g., osullivan2005; thompson and shah

29、2006; anderson 2008. this study contends that a financial analysis of krispy kremes investments in joint ventures and franchise repurchases would have revealed some of these problems before they were eventually reflected in the stock price. the case begins with a description of krispy kremes histori

30、cal background through fy02. next, i provide and discuss excerpts from krispy kremes fy02 financial statements and form 10-k and analysts forecasts issued after the fy02 earnings announcement. the forecasted income statements reflect krispy kremes historical performance patterns and are based on man

31、agement forecasts of sales and store openings. after presenting the financial information that analysts used in their forecasts, i present footnote disclosures relating to the companys investments in joint ventures and franchise repurchases. krispy kremes fy02 financial statements include richly det

32、ailed information on its two consolidated joint ventures and six unconsolidated equity method joint ventures. an analysis these footnote disclosures should lead analysts to a more sophisticated and nuanced view of krispy kremes fy02 performance and future prospects.1.1 company background and descrip

33、tion founded in north carolina in 1937, krispy kreme is famous for its hot original glazed doughnuts, produced hot and ready to eat in its stores. in all, the company offers more than 20 varieties of premium doughnuts. as of february 3, 2002, there were 218 krispy kreme stores operating in the unite

34、d states, consisting of 75 company-owned stores operating mainly in the southeast and 143 franchised stores. each of its stores is a doughnut factory with the capacity to produce from 4,000 dozen to over 10,000 dozen doughnuts daily.1.2 company history prior to its public offering krispy kreme trace

35、s its beginnings to the great depression, when company-founder vernon rudolph began working in a paducah, kentucky bakery shop owned by his uncle, ishmael anderson. anderson had obtained the rights to a yeast-raised doughnut recipe when he purchased the bakery from joe lebeau, a french chef who had

36、brought the recipe with him from new orleans. over the next few years, rudolphs family opened wholesale doughnut bakeries in various southern cities. in 1937, rudolph left his familys bakery business, taking the doughnut recipe with him. he eventually opened the first krispy kreme doughnut shop in w

37、inston-salem, north carolina. rudolph originally conceived krispy kreme as a regional wholesale business, supplying dough-nuts to local restaurants and cafeterias. after people began stopping by the bakery to ask if they could buy hot doughnuts, however, rudolph began selling hot original glazed dou

38、ghnuts directly to customers. in the 1940s, krispy kreme granted its first franchise rights in neighboring southern markets. the owners of these franchise rights, who were later described as “franchise associates,” were required to make all the capital investments necessary to operate the stores. by

39、 selling franchise licenses, krispy kreme was able to achieve growth without significant investment. initially, the franchisees made their own doughnuts from scratch. to improve consistency, the company eventually sold company-produced dry doughnut mix and company-developed doughnut-making equipment

40、 to its franchise stores. later, in the 1960s, krispy kreme adopted a company-owned store strategy as well, but one that again focused on the wholesale bakery business.after rudolph passed away in 1973, his estate sold the company to beatrice foods. beatrice unsuccessfully experimented with changing

41、 the doughnut recipes and adding new products such as sandwiches to the menu. in 1982, after years of languishing sales, a group of original franchise associates acquired the company in a leveraged buyout lbo. the company spent most of the rest of that decade paying off the lbo debt and growing reve

42、nues by focusing its business on selling doughnuts to local groceries and supermarkets through both company-owned stores and franchise associate-owned stores. by the beginning of 1996, the company had 96 krispy kreme stores in operation, consisting of 53 company-owned units and 43 franchise stores.

43、the sales mix in these stores averaged about 20 percent retail and 80 percent wholesale. unfortunately, corporate revenues had stagnated in the$110 to $120 million range since 1989. the company was still a regional firm with all its stores located in the southeastern united states. to reinvigorate g

44、rowth, the company refocused its strategy from one that emphasized off-premises sales to a strategy that promoted retail sales at krispy kreme outlets. doughnut sizes increased by 40 percent and stores were redesigned to make the doughnut manufacturing process completely visible inside the store. at

45、 the same time, the company initiated a new “area developer” franchise program to expand the krispy kreme brand nationwide. instead of selling franchise rights to open individual stores, the company began to sell exclusive franchise rights to open multiple krispy kreme stores within a specified terr

46、itory. the franchise agreement required each area developer to open a prescribed amount of new stores within their area during a specified time period. in june 1996, the first krispy kreme store opened in new york city. by the beginning of 2000, area developers had opened 37 new stores and had commi

47、tted to open another 130 stores in their territories within five years. the company and its franchise associates also opened new stores, increasing the total number of krispy kreme outlets to 144. between 1996 and 2000, annual revenues doubled to$220 million and profits increased to $6 million. 1.3

48、initial public offering and stock price performanceon april 4, 2000, krispy kreme doughnuts began selling on the nasdaq under the stock symbol krem. the company issued 3.45 million shares to the public in an initial public offering and 9.34 million shares to its existing shareholders (including 5.2

49、million shares issued to 16 of its officers and directors) in exchange for old shares in the pre-existing corporation. in its initial registration statement, krispy kreme stated that it expected to use the net proceeds from the ipo to (1)repay borrowings; (2) distribute funds to existing shareholder

50、s;(3) remodel and relocate older company-owned stores;(4) invest in mix production capacity to support expansion; (5)invest in joint ventures with franchisees; and (6) finance general operating activities. the ipo was oversubscribed at $21.00 per share and the price quickly rose in value. a year lat

51、er, the company began selling shares on the nyse under the new ticker symbol kkd. by march 8, 2002 the date that krispy kreme released its fy02 annual report, the stock had split twice and its price had climbed to $41.32 per share or $165.28 on un-split basis .8stock analysts at brean murray researc

52、h rated krispy kreme a “buy” with a target price of $48.00 per share. the 787 percent increase in the stock price over this two-year period was quite remark able considering it took place while the s&p 500 index dropped by over 22 percent. the rise in the stock price coincided with rising expectatio

53、ns of company profitability. in may 2000, most analyst forecasts predicted split-adjusted annual eps of $0.20 in fy01 and $0.25 in fy02. actual eps for these years turned out to be $0.27 in fy01 and $0.47 in fy02. exhibits 24 present krispy kremes balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow state

54、ments for the five years ended february 3, 2002.2 operating segmentskrispy kreme consistently classifies its revenue sources into three categories: company-owned stores that generate revenues from sales of doughnuts and complementary products directly to customers, franchise operations that generate

55、 royalty and fee revenues from franchisees, and kkm&d sales of inventory, supplies, and equipment to franchisees. the revenues and direct operating expenses other than depreciation and amortization expenses from each of these three segments for the five years ended february 3, 2002.2.1 company store

56、 operations krispy kreme directly owned 75 stores as of february 3, 2002. most of these company-owned stores were developed between 1937 and 1996 in the southeast and were designed as wholesale bakeries. these stores generate a majority of their sales volume through off premises sales and are larger

57、 than most new krispy kreme stores. company-owned stores as of february 3, 2002 also include nine stores in northern california and two stores in philadelphia, both of which are operated by area developer joint ventures in which krispy kremeh as a majority ownership interest. company store operating revenues increased to $266.2 million in fy02 from $213.7 million in fy01, an increase of 24.6 percent. compared store sales increased by 11.7 percent. the revenue growth was primarily due to strong growth i