时尚简约风金融投资理财债券投资培训教育课件ppt模板

1、,企业培训课程,汇报人： 财务部,金融投资理财债券投资,适 用 于 互 联 网 / 科 技 / I T / 通 信 / 金 融 / 房 地 产 / 汽 车 / 电 子 等 公 司,目录,No need to have a reason to love you. Anything can be a reason not to love you.,01.,02.,03.,04.,债券市场整体状况分析,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,债券投资策略,If someone loves a flower, of which just

2、one single,债券投资理论的具体运用,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,实际操作中的风险控制,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,01.,债券市场整体状况分析,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,债券市场业务,现券业务,利率产品,国债、政策性金融债、央票等,信用产品,短融、中票、企业债、资产支持证券等,资金业务,信用拆借,回 购,质押式,买断式,衍生业务,远期交易,利率互换,债券借贷

3、,国债期货,01.,债券市场整体状况分析,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,债券市场业务分类（续）, 债券借贷,债券借贷是指债券融入方以一定数量的债券为质押物，从债券融出方借入标的债券，同时约定在未来某日期归还所借入标的债券，并由债券融出方返还相应质押物，同时债券融入方向债券融出方支付一定费用的债券融通行为。,盘活存量债券；降低融入方的杠杆融资成本。,提供了合理有效的做空手段。, 国债期货,市场反应快于现货市场。,对短期波段操作有很好指引意义。,1.1,If someone loves a flower, of which

4、just one single,发行、流通监管机构,1.2,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,债券价格的获取方式一级市场,1.3,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,价格获得方式： 1.BROKER（RM） 2.QB/WIND 3.QQ 4.CFETS,债券价格的获取方式二级市场,1.3,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,4.CFETS,1.BROKER（RM）,3.QQ,2.QB/WIN

5、D,投资者,02.,债券投资理论的具体运用,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,债券投资理论分析角度,2.1,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,两个层面,宏观方面,微观方面,基本面：,政策面：,资金面,行业地位,企业情况,资金供应+债券供给,货币政策+财政政策,经济增长+通货膨胀,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,Fa

6、r far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,如何观测经济增长,基本面指标,2.1.1,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,领先观测指标,月度观测数据,季度观测数据,PMI 社融数据 信贷数据,工业增加值 房地产数据 进出口数据,GDP, M2领先通货膨胀指标12个月，当期紧缩/宽松政策会对未来1年通货膨胀产生影响。, 同时要注意的是，实际预测要考虑多种因素。,如何观测通胀指标,基本面指标（续）,2.1

7、.1,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,货币 政策,法定准备金率,基准利率,公开市场操作,再贴现/再贷款,汇率,信贷/窗口指导,另外是公开市场和汇率层面，首先结合目前市场情况说说公开市场操作，央行在上两周重启了逆回购，其中7的利率定在3.85%，但我们会发现这个水平是高于去年全年7天回购3.6%的平均水平和目前市场3.7%的水平，因此这个利率下调的可能性比较大。另一个，汇率，大家都说今年市场波动会加大，我个人建议大家今年做波段操作多关注汇率的波动，因为美国加息预期强劲和人民国际化的趋势使汇率波动加大，进而加大对国内利率和流动

8、性的影响。,政策面,2.1.2,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the co

9、untries Vokalia and Consonantia,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,政策面（

10、续）,2.1.2,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries

11、 Vokalia and Consonantia,财政政策,资金来源：基础货币投放、存款增量、理财资金增量； 债券供给： 国债到期量相对平稳，净融资量与发行量走势一致，表现为一季度偏低，二、三季度走高，四季度回落的特征； 金融债发行也较有规律，二、三季度发行量较大； 短融、中票等发行受当期市场利率影响大一些。,另一方面，债券的供给情况，主要有这几个特征，利率产品的供给主要集中在二 、三季度，而信用债的供给受当期市场利率水平的影响。我们可以来看下面几张图。,资金面,2.1.3,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,利率债发行情况,

12、资金面债券供给,2.1.3,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,输入标题文本,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,资金因素造成市场“股债齐涨” 的现象,上证综指从 1959点上涨至2347点,收益率从 4.43%下行

13、至3.97%,输入标题文本,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,资金面（续）,2.1.3,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,资金因素造成市场“股债双杀” 的现象,收益率从 3.91%上行至5.43%,上证综指从 2

14、247点下跌至1963点,资金面（续）,2.1.3,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,输入标题文本,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,资金因素造成市场“股债齐涨” 的现象,道指从 6763.29上涨至15224.

15、69,美国10年国债收益率从 3.91%下行至1.78%,资金面（续）,2.1.3,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,输入标题文本,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,债券投资分析角度微观层面,2.2,If som

16、eone loves a flower, of which just one single,行业的发展前景，其对于国民经济的重要性,行业景气度，与经济周期的关系,行业政策，国家扶持还是打压,行业的竞争程度，是否有进入壁垒,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,行业地位,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,Far far

17、away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,Far far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia,债券投资分析角度微观层面,2.2,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,企业情况,运营管理能力：存货周转率、 应收账款周转率、营业周期,负债比率：资产负债比 有形资产债务率,流动性：经营性活动现金流

18、、 现金到期债务比、现金流动负债比,盈利能力：ROE、ROA、 销售毛利率、销售净利率,负债比率：资产负债比 有形资产债务率,03.,债券投资策略,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,利率变化,仓位选择,时点选择,交易机会,宏观经济周期研究,货币财政政策变化,年,策略 研究,公开市场利率、信用利差等,季度,交易 研究,短期资金利率、发行利率等,月,债券投资实战策略逻辑,3.1,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,过热期,滞涨期,衰退期,复苏期,债券贬值,现金贬

19、值,股票次之,商品为王,通货膨胀,债券次之,股票暴跌,商品次之,现金为王,经济危机,商品暴跌,股票疲软,现金次之,债券为王,降息周期,商品低迷,现金贬值,债券次之,股票为王,经济加速,通胀上升,配置重点：商品为王,经济过热以及较高的通货膨胀使大,宗商品成为收益最高的资产，,而在股票中，与大宗商品相,关的股票是较好的选择。,经济增长疲软,配置重点：现金为王,现金是最佳选择，,股票中需求弹性小,的公共事业，医药等,是较好的选择，能源股,对石油价格敏感，在滞涨,阶段前期表现较好。,矿产股对金属的价,格比较敏感，在,经济过热阶段表,现较好。,通胀下降,配置重点：债券为王,货币宽松导致,收益率曲线急剧下

20、,行，债券是最佳选择,而在股票中金融股是较,好选择。,经济增长强劲,配置重点：股票为王,股票投资的“黄金时期”，由,于经济复苏往往伴随着,高科技技术出现、,基础材料研究,的突破，因此,是超配行 、,高新技术,业。,债券投资策略实战逻辑美林投资时钟,2.2,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,债券投资实战策略,3.2,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,收益率曲线策略,息差（杠杆）策略,债券借贷做空策略,纯债策略,套利策略,个券互换策略,TF套利,IRS套利,跨

21、市场套利,组合管理的原因 久期的限制 市场供给有限 风险管理的要求：集中度、流动性、敏感性指标、信用等级要求 具体配置结构： 子弹型（3年+5年）、哑铃型（1年+10年）,纯债策略组合运用,3.3,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,子弹型配置（3年+5年）,哑铃型配置（1年+10年）,2014年持有期损益分析：,子弹型,哑铃型,纯债策略组合运用（案例）,3.3,If someone loves a flower, of which just one single,采取前快后慢 拉长久期操作,采取前慢后快 缩短久期操作,采取匀速配置 适中久期操作,纯债策略久期运用,3.4,If som