浅析日本泡沫经济溯源与启示（Analysis of the origin and Enlightenment of Japan's bubble economy）

1、浅析日本泡沫经济溯源与启示（Analysis of the origin and Enlightenment of Japans bubble economy）Beijing Kun Rui control, as the countrys sensor development, production, leading enterprises, can fully meet your requirements. We have the industrial performance and application quality of the most advanced internationa

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3、of World War II, Japan fully exploited the advantage of backwardness and made use of the international background of the cold war, creating a miracle of high-speed economic growth for a long time, and rapidly becoming the worlds second largest economy after the United states. From the second half of

4、 1980s to the beginning of the 90s, it was a turning point for Japans economic development. Asset prices, such as stocks and real estate, rose sharply and inflated sharply, and the Japanese bubble economy grew rapidly during this period and continued to expand. But the bubble suddenly burst, not onl

5、y caused the rapid shrinking and the bad debts of financial institutions increased rapidly, and hit the Japanese economy, the economy stagnated, a large number of enterprises closed down, rising unemployment, a serious shortage of consumer and deflation and other vicious spiral all kinds of conflict

6、s are intertwined. Japans economic weakness, the economic development from peak to trough, and into long-term depression or depressed, has been delayed.More seriously, the collapse of the bubble economy of Japan government to stimulate economic recovery and long-term expansionary fiscal policies not

7、 only have little effect, but the cause of expanding the deficit, crocodile effect has become increasingly prominent, sovereign debt continues to expand, more difficult to change, now risk heavy Japanese sovereign debt crisis undoing. The international community generally in the fiscal balance accou

8、nted for the proportion of GDP and debt accounted for two of GDP indicators to measure a countrys sovereign debt since 1985, observed changes of Japans sovereign debt can be found, since the collapse of the bubble economy of Japan after long-term government deficits, the annual deficit accounted for

9、 the proportion of GDP increased continuously, except for a few years, in the late 1990s so far this proportion has remained at around 6%, is two times the internationally accepted safety standards. Especially since 2009, the fiscal deficit has expanded rapidly, and the fiscal deficit of three years

10、 is 411 trillion yen, 376 trillion yen and 418 trillion yen, accounting for 8.73%, 7.81% and 8.93% respectively in the same period of GDP. At the same time, the Japanese government debt has risen steadily, with an average annual growth of more than 40 trillion yen. By 2011, the total debt of Japan w

11、as close to 1000 trillion yen, accounting for more than 200% of the GDP in the same period, setting a record high, which means that Japans per capita burden of 7 million 216 thousand yen. Sovereign debt is high, resulting in huge risks to Japan and the world economy. At present, Japan has become the

12、 lowest sovereign credit rating in all developed economies.The formation and collapse of Japans bubble economy is not accidental, but in the ups and downs of the international situation, the domestic economic development of long-term hidden dangers in the absence of appropriate economic policies sti

13、mulated by the outbreak.First, the structural problem in Japans economic development is the root cause of the formation of the bubble economyAfter Japan, the command economy plan, administrative guidance and industrial policy adopted by the Japanese government pursued the strategy of catching up wit

14、h the government,While promoting rapid economic development and catching up with other developed countries, its structural problems are becoming increasingly prominent. Effective configuration such as the excessive dependence on external demand, the competitiveness of the industry downturn, corporat

15、e ownership structure is not reasonable in the economic development of the structural problems of distorted the resources, resulting in the real economy investment opportunities are scarce, free from large amounts of capital in the real economy, and excessive focus on foam industry. This has become

16、the root cause of the bubble economy.1., relying too much on external demand weakens Japans ability to respond to its currency appreciation. Facing the limited domestic market demand, Japan has implemented the strategy of trade for the country since 1970s, with export as the national policy, and the

17、 economy needed to lead the transformation. In the late 70s, the contribution of exports to economic growth remained at around 30%, except for individual years. In the first half of 80s, Japans dependence on foreign demand was not only increasing, but also more dependent on the US market. From 1983

18、to 1984, Japans exports to the United States accounted for 29.2% and 35.3% of its total exports respectively. As Japans trade surplus with the United States continues to expand, trade frictions between the United States and Japan are growing as they face deficits and trade deficits, and the United S

19、tates urges the yen to appreciate. The Plaza Accord, imposed in September 1985, forced the yen to appreciate sharply. The Japanese yen hit exports rely on low cost and low price advantage, total exports declined by 41 trillion and 960 billion yen in 1985 to 35 trillion and 290 billion yen in 1986, 1

20、987 further dropped to 333 thousand and 100 yen. The traditional export industries, such as textiles and steel, have been seriously hampered and dragged down the whole economy. The yen appreciation caused the depression to spread throughout japan.The lack of the 2. industry development target and th

21、e lack of technological innovation ability hinder the promotion of industrial competitiveness. With the transition of economy to internationalization and the maturity of most industries, Japan, which has been catching up with Japan, has lost its definite goal of industrial development. In the crossr

22、oads of Japans industrial policy is no longer actively, actively seeking potential industry, improve the competitiveness of the industry, but negatively and passively formed relying on export-oriented manufacturing advantages, forming a competitive 10% industry supporting the lack of competitiveness

23、 of the 90% industry fragile structure. At the same time, lack of technological innovation capability has increasingly become a stumbling block to enhance the competitiveness of industries. Japan is Japans industrial technology innovation system performance Committee known as the dynamic enhanced ad

24、aptability is based on on the basis of the introduction of technology, dependence and independent development of technology is very low. In 1980s, with the overall technical level to catch up with Europe and the United States and trade frictions intensified, foreign technology supply has been unable

25、 to meet the needs of Japans technological development. However, the weak basic research can not support Japan to get rid of the mode of import technology and imitation technology development. Technological innovation can only focus on the middle and low level of technology, and lack of high technol

26、ogy development ability. At the same time, manufacturing technology and information technology with competitive advantages also fail to grasp the direction of development correctly or indulge in their own advantages and miss the opportunity of innovation, which results in the collapse of their indus

27、tries.ThreeThe two is a variety of financial products free interest rate liberalization process, provides the convenience for a lot of money in stocks and land speculation, but also for Europe and the United States and Japan enterprises engaged in financial speculation to create opportunities and co

28、nditions; three is already very careful financial liberalization has neglected to the financial institutions to establish effective supervision and risk prevention mechanism, this just can not stand broken financial liberalization is exacerbated by the expansion of financial risk.2., financial insti

29、tutions have become the most important promoter of the bubble economy. For a long time, the Japanese government has implemented the so-called convoy style protection of financial institutions, thus the myth of Japans banks will not go bankrupt has been permeated throughout the Japanese financial sys

30、tem. Under this kind of excessive protection structure, the Japanese financial institution risk consciousness is extremely weak, lacks the effective supervision seriously, has lost the survival competition mechanism of the survival of the fittest, and the financial profession generally exists the mo

31、ral hazard. In the never bankrupt confidence support, banks and other financial institutions to expand credit blindly, participate in stock and real estate investment, and become the most important promoter of the bubble economy.Three, the frequent failure of the governments macro-control policies i

32、s the direct cause of the formation and collapse of the bubble economyIn mid 1980s, in order to cope with the appreciation of the yen, US economic policy coordination, the Japanese economy began from external demand led to major changes in domestic demand, export-oriented economic growth model is no

33、t sustainable, Japan must expand domestic demand. To this end, Japan adopted a fiscal, monetary and loose policy combination, with a view to adjusting the structure of economic growth and seeking the status of political power. However, due to financial liberalization, internationalization and global

34、ization of business around the macro policy choice and adjustment, and policy makers and stakeholders with foam cover political corruption and rent-seeking, resulting in excessive expansion of Japans fiscal policy and long-term monetary policy not only failed to achieve the expected, but to the alre

35、ady overheated add fuel to the flames directly induce bubble economy.1., the continuous increase in public investment and the gradual implementation of tax reform have greatly stimulated land prices, encouraging the enthusiasm of the public to participate in financial speculation. Large-scale public

36、 investment, especially the implementation of the metropolitan reconstruction plan, has directly promoted the rising of urban land prices, and created land myth that land prices will not go down. At the same time, the government has steadily lowered its tax rate on personal income tax and even inten

37、ds to implement a tax cut of up to 4 trillion and 800 billion yen in 1987. Under the stimulation of the governments public investment plan and tax reform, financial institutions and ordinary people have followed up, the land has become the main object of speculation, land prices increased.2., the lo

38、ng and loose monetary policy adopted in response to the yens appreciation has intensified bubble creation and expansion. In the late 1980s, the Bank of Japan continued to cut interest rates, with official benchmark interest rates down from 5% in 1985 to a record low of 2.5% in 1987 and continued thr

39、ough May 1989. At the same time, Japanese banks invested heavily in money, starting in 1986 for four consecutive years, the average annual growth rate of money supply remained at around 10%. What surprised the Japanese government was that.,The money supply in Japan long-term low inflation did not ab

40、sorb the super relaxation rate and the soaring, resulting in a large number of surplus funds in the free commodity market outside the influx of the stock market and real estate market, the capital ready conditions for the formation of the bubble economy.3., the hard landing policy led to the collaps

41、e of the bubble economy. In the face of the continuing boom in the stock and real estate sectors, the Bank of Japan reversed the direction of monetary policy in May 1989, raising the central banks discount rate again and ending the era of ultra-low interest rates that had been maintained for over tw

42、o years. Then, in April 1990 the Japanese Ministry of finance control of real estate financing measures, and strict control of the bank window. At the same time, the government in 1991 enacted a land tax to curb rising property prices and land speculation transactions. This series of tough fiscal au

43、sterity policies punctured the bubble at one stroke. Since 1990, as stock market expectations reversed, share prices slipped and fell to rock bottom in 1992. Since then, as the land price control policies have become increasingly evident, the real estate market prices have loosened, and in the overa

44、ll economic contraction began to fall sharply in 1992, the collapse of the bubble economy.Four, Japans bubble economys Enlightenment to ChinaChinese the current economic situation and Japans bubble economy period has some similar signs, such as overheated real estate development, investment overheat

45、ing, excessive money supply and bank non-performing assets is too high; especially in the mode of development and deep-seated economic structure has similarities. Chinese would step in Japans bubble economy in the footsteps of scholars unable to agree on which is right. In depth analysis of the reas

46、ons for the formation of Japans bubble economy, a comprehensive comparison of China and Japan in the social system and economic structure of the difference, drawing on experience and lessons learned, for China to avoid repeating the mistakes of great benefit.1., grasp the opportunity to adjust the e

47、conomic structure, and realize the transformation of the development model from catching up to leading. During the period of rapid development in Japan, the old policy ideas and development models have achieved great success while their inherent shortcomings have not attracted enough attention from

48、the government. Japan, intoxicated with economic advancement, seems to have failed to realize the big turning point. This makes the Japanese economy catch-up model ended, did not promptly foster self exploration and development capabilities and mechanisms, missed the opportunity to combine abundant

49、capital and technological innovation, industrial innovation. This is the most profound lesson of Japans bubble economy.Similar to that of Japan, China is also a government led input driven growth model. Although the economic strength has been ranked second in the world, at this stage Chinese remains

50、 a powerful force in pursuit of rapid economic growth, but China development unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable issues are still outstanding, the adjustment of economic structure, change the mode of development has become a major problem to resolve urgently China economy. Especially in the

51、face of the increasingly complicated international economic situation, it is an important way to realize the transformation of the development model from catching up to leading.2., step by step to promote financial liberalization and establish a sound financial regulatory system. Financial liberaliz

52、ation is a double-edged sword, and the complex and changeable international and domestic economic situation can easily affect a countrys fragile financial system,And then give birth to bubbles. Especially now facing the turbulent international financial system, Japans rapid financial liberalization

53、tells us that Chinese financial liberalization must be gradual, not only the broken and . Only by deepening the reform of the financial system and strengthening financial supervision can we establish a mature and open confidence financial market so as to form a Chinese characteristic financial syste

54、m based on a sound banking system.3., give full play to the governments role in regulating the financial market, and rationally guide the flow of investment. The development of modern economy needs not only the function of market mechanism, but also the macro intervention of the state. The Japanese

55、government ignored the blindness of the self-regulation of the financial market under the condition of imperfect market mechanism, which brought about the possibility of the bubble economy and financial crisis. Therefore, the government must give full play to the role of financial markets is scienti

56、fic, effective and forward-looking, can in the economy at risk status when fully grasp the potential direction of macro-control policies, to avoid mistakes. At the same time, the government should give reasonable guidance to investment, especially to pay close attention to the investment in the bubb

57、le economy sector. Judging from Japans lesson, luxury consumer goods and speculative investment are the most vulnerable to a bubble economy. Therefore, in the domestic industrial base is not solid background, the government should adopt macro-control means, through preferential policies to guide inv

58、estment in emerging industries need funds and weak industries, such as high-tech industry, agriculture and so on, to avoid a lot of speculative capital.4., we should deepen the reform of the tax system and develop the property market steadily. First, deepen the reform of the tax system, and effectively solve the local governments dependence on land finance. During the period of Japans bubble economy, the land based financing system greatly contributed to the expansion of the land bubble. Similar