内外部成本课件

1、内外部成本,是点金成“铁”还是点“铁”成金,京沪高铁项目的内、外部成本&效益分析,内外部成本,外部成本,内部效益,外部效益,结论,内部成本,内、外部成本&效益分析,内外部成本,高速铁路的成本,从经济学角度讲，高速铁路成本的实质是在运输生产过程中，为完成高速运输服务所消耗的各类要素资源的价值总和。 这里的“资源”除了传统意义上能以货币形式直接表现的经营支出(包括土建、机车车辆、运营成本、财务费用等)外，还应当包括因高速铁路运行所带来的噪声影响、时间价值、环境污染、土地景观破坏等不适于通过货币来计量的隐性外部资源。,杨瑜，王怀相.高速铁路运输综合成本测算研究J. 铁路工程学报，2009：1,内外部

2、成本,京沪高铁的内部成本,土建成本,运营成本,财务成本,内部成本可以理解成是项目投资方为了完成项目所消耗的成本,内部成本,内外部成本,京沪高铁固定资产构成表,邢智超.京沪高铁项目估值研究D. 北京交通大学，2009，6.,内外部成本,土建成本,邢智超.京沪高铁项目估值研究D. 北京交通大学，2009，6.,内外部成本,设备购置成本,旅客发送服务成本,列车运行维护成本,轨道线路运转成本,电务牵引供电成本,运营成本,运营成本是指高速铁路为完成旅客运输任务所消耗的以货币形式表现的所有费用支出.,运营成本,岳红.高速铁路运营成本计算方法的研究D. 北方交通大学，2001，2.,内外部成本,外部成本,事

3、故/危害成本,使用者成本,外部环境成本,土地经营破坏成本,京沪高铁的外部成本,内外部成本,环境外部成本,噪声影响,空气污染,高速铁路噪音外部成本估算比较困难，主要是其对人的影响具有一定的差异性。目前比较可行的方式，是利用特征价格法来核算，或是采用工程计算方式，由路线周边的资产价值变化来代表铁路噪音影响的环境外部成本。,环境污染主要是空气污染，其中主要是温室气体部分，以CO：为主。我国大陆学者参照欧洲和日本各种运输方式噪音和空气污染的社会成本，推算出高速铁路的环境外部成本约为00351元pkm,环境外部成本,噪音污染,空气污染,周新军.告诉速铁路助推中国低炭经济发展J. 铁路工程学报，2010：

4、11,内外部成本,土地经营破坏成本,直接影响,不同土地的年平均外部成本在17108570美形英亩的范围，并建议以年平均外部成本为3 500美形英亩为代表值，换算为人民币则为每年63750形公顷,间接影响,京沪高铁,在间接影响部分，年外部成本为8000美形英亩，换算为人民币为每年146750形公顷,据粗略估计，京沪高速铁路全线用地面积总计约5000公顷则高速铁路的土地直接影响成本为00045元pkm，间接影响成本为00103元/pkm。,杨瑜，王怀相.高速铁路运输综合成本测算研究J. 铁路工程学报，2009：1,内外部成本,使用者成本,使用者成本,根据世界各国主要高速铁路系统的运营经验来看，高速

5、铁路在准点率方面有较好的表现。,旅行时间成本是依照人们对旅行时间的评价而决定的。具体旅行时间价值为多少，与使用者的所得以及旅行目的有密切的关系。,京沪走廊旅客1996年的时间价值约为92/h，根据时间价值与收入同比例增加的规律，预测2015年旅客的时间价值为259/h，则旅行时间成本为003198元pkm。,杨瑜，王怀相.高速铁路运输综合成本测算研究J. 铁路工程学报，2009：1,内外部成本,预测,国外的历史数据,我国的历史数据,事故/危害成本,杨瑜，王怀相.高速铁路运输综合成本测算研究J. 铁路工程学报，2009：1,内外部成本,京沪高铁的成本效益分析(1),工程建设成本：2209亿，有1

6、109亿为资金成本，1100亿为银行贷款，利率为6%，分20年还清，每年归还利息为66亿，每年归还本金为55亿。 运营成本：每年高铁需要运营成本为30亿。 环境成本：参照欧洲和日本的经验数据推断我国高铁的环境外部成本约为00351元pkm。利用年客流量*里程数*单位成本可得年环境成本：28.3亿。 土地经营成本：通过估算，京沪高铁全线占地面积总计约5000公顷，高速铁路土地直接影响成本为0.0045元/pkm，间接影响成本为0.0103元/pkm。利用年客流量*里程数*单位成本可得年土地经营成本：12.1亿。,内外部成本,京沪高铁的成本效益分析（2）,经济效益分析 客运效益：根据统计，京沪高铁

7、线的稳定日客流量平均在17万【经济观察报】，票价按500元计算，可以算出年的客运收益，500*170000*365，约310亿。 时间节约效益： =0.5*19.5 *1.7846*108=l 73(亿元)由此可见，若2010年高速铁路建成，则仅每年乘客由普通铁路转乘高速铁路这一项所带来的时间节省效益就达到173亿元。【京沪高速铁路的社会经济影响研究】 货运效益：既有轨道货运能力大增，年增5000万吨货运量。 刺激第三产业：客流量的诱发率平均为2025。旅客人次的增加，无疑会对沿线的餐饮业、商业、服务业等第三产业的发展带来益处。,内外部成本,Add your text in here,Add

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