Class6技术1风险识别的工具和方法

Tools and Methods for Risk Identification,工程项目风险管理与保险,双语课,Section 1 Introduction of RI,Notions Studies for knowing the possibility of some loss occurring, including two types of works:Hazard identificationAccidental cause analysis Main tasks： What are these potential hazards, what are the kinds? What is the main failure modes? What is the main reasons causing these failures?What is the possible effects of the failures?,Section 2 The methods of RI,Delphi method Brainstorming Insurance compilationAssets - Loss Analysis Analysis of financial statements Decomposition Fishbone diagramChecklistFEMA,Comparison of Insurance compilation and Assets-loss method.,Insurance compilation ：Risk managers analyze risk based on the comparison of the kinds of insurance sold and Enterprise Status. Disadvantage： having limitations for some uninsurable risk identification. Advantage：Highlights the investigation on insurable risk of risk management body.,Assets - loss method: form is divided into two parts, one assets (tangible and intangible) list, but they face potential losses. Features: Analyzing all risks from the overall business perspective. Advantages: Considering both insurable risks and uninsurable risks.,Analysis of financial statements,Balance Sheet (资产负债表): The latest status of the main risk of a reaction point in time.,Income Statement（损益表）: It is an accounting period of income, expenses and profits, showing a variety of factors influencing the net income.,Changes in financial position（现金流量表）: Prompt changes in net working capital, changes in the use of funds will reflect the main potential risk of projects.,Decomposition method,单项工程,单位工程,分部工程,分项工程,A case: The construction process of concrete floor Step 1,Step 2,Step 3,Step 4,Step 5,Step 6,Step 7,Checklist for case,搅拌站 ： 砂子的含泥量高； 砂子级配不合理； 石子的含泥量高； 石子级配的合理性和强度差； 水泥性能差。,施工现场：,运输过程,钢筋、PVC管线绑扎不牢，模板处理不净；振捣漏振、欠振；没有及时的二次抹压；,夏天温度高、风大，有水养护不到位；混凝土浇筑完毕后短期内便上人或施加其他荷载，扰动了混凝土。气候寒冷时，混凝土没有覆盖保温。,施工,养护,随意稀释；塌落度控制不严。,Fishbone diagram for case,商品混凝土制备,运输,绑扎钢筋,浇筑,振捣碾平,养护使用,材料选择不当,配制强度,搅拌机选择,搅拌制度,从搅拌站至工地现场,泵送运输时,钢筋不合格,保护层厚度不准确,接头部分不当,绑扎不牢,先后浇筑,浇筑速度不同,模板刚度不足,其他因素,拌合物不密实,振捣方式,振捣时间,硬化前振捣不足,碾平,养护早晚,过早拆模,冬期施工,过早负荷,水化热大,运输工具,运输时间,道路交通,泵送方式,泵送工具,Section 3: FEMA method,Potential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, abbreviation-FMEA. A systematic team activities, for: -Potential failure mode and the impact analysis to assess product / process.-These faults are sorted to determine its priority .-Determination of measures to eliminate or reduce the failure.,FEMA-related issues,Potential failure modes: means form or problems that may occur do not satisfy the requirements of the process for some projects. It may be caused by potential failure modes under a process, and it may be the consequence of a previous process failure modes.The consequences of failure: refers to the adverse effects of the failure mode to product quality or customer.Cause of failure / mechanism: refers to the failure about how it happened, and should be described on basis of the principle that control can be corrected.,Procedure of FEMA,FEMA- Severity” S”,Severity S- for consequences / issues Severity corresponds to the consequences. Generally only design changes can change the severity of the consequences. Severity established links between failure modes and level of risk, and focus on high severity, play a guiding role in resources. Divided into 1-10 severity level of a failure mode, choose the consequences maximum calculated RPN.,FEMA- Frequency “O “,Frequency O Frequency refers to the frequency of failure cause / mechanism is expected to occur, points 1-10. Preventive measures can reduce the frequency of occurrence.,FEMA- Detection “ D “,Detection D Assessment the possibility of failure discovery for the existing control methods. In doing Detection Evaluation, the assumption that failure mode has occurred must be done.Control measures may be considered as follows: inspection and testing procedures, control of nonconforming product program, mistake proofing techniques, statistical process control, process control plans. Divided into 1-10.,FEMA- Risk Priority,Risk priority number (RPN) is a product of formula related to serious degree (S), the number of frequencies (O) and the number of detecting (D) RPN = S O D Risk priority number is a measure of risk. RPN value between 1-1000, if you are at high risk priority numb