北京市环境经济评估的意愿调查评估法研究.doc

北京市环境经济评估的意愿调查评估法研究北京市环境经济评估的意愿调查评估法研究-案例研究及1996与2000年数据的比较张懿导师：胡大源 教授摘 要随着经济的发展，环境与人类的关系越来越密切。在发展经济的同时，人们开始注意资源的合理利用和环境保护。环境的经济评估值已成为衡量经济是否可持续发展的重要指标。本文先分析了环境经济评估的重要意义及困难所在，然后介绍了几种经济评估方法，阐述了意愿调查评估法（Contingent Valuation Method）的理论基础、优越性和局限性。接着以北京市为例，系统的研究了意愿调查法的实施步骤、调查技术以及偏差的消除方法，从分析结果中，估算除了北京市环境改善的经济效益，并分析了影响居民愿付值(Willingness to Pay)的经济变量。最后，比较了2000年与1996年的调查数据并用Bootstrapping法进行了显著性检验。研究结果表明，居民对环境的愿付值受到居民的收入、受教育程度等因素的影响，同时也取决于对政府行为的信任程度，因此，发展经济以及加强环境教育都是改善北京环境质量的根本途径。关键词：环境经济评估 意愿调查评估法 愿付值 Bootstrapping法The Study of Contingent Valuation Method About Economic Evaluation OF environment in Bei Jing-The Case Study and Comparison between Data of 1996 and 2000 Zhang YiDirected by Prof. Dayuan HuAbstractWith the development of economy, the relation between environment and human being has become closer and closer. While developing economy, people have paid attention to reasonable use of resources and environment protection. And Economic Evaluation of Environment has become an important index to measure if development of an economy is sustainable.The paper analyzes the importance and difficulties of Economic Evaluation of Environment, introduces some methods of Economic Evaluation Environment and indicates the theoretic foundation, strength and weakness of the Contingent Valuation Method. Taking Bei Jing as an example, the paper studies the Contingent Valuation in a systemic way, including process, survey technology, and the remove of bias. From the study, the paper estimates the benefits in the environmental improvement of Bei Jing. And analyzes the economic values which influence the Willingness to Pay of inhabits. In the end, the paper compares the data of 2000 with that of 1996 and makes significant test with Bootstrapping Method.The conclusion of study indicates that the Willingness to Pay is influenced by some factors of inhabits, such as income, educational level and the confidence in the action of government. Thus, the fundamental method to solve the environmental problems of Bei Jing is to strength the environmental education and to develop economy. Key Words: Economic Evaluation of Environment, Contingent Valuation Method, Willingness to Pay, Bootstrapping Method 目 录导论.1环境经济评估概述.1环境经济评估的作用.1环境经济评估的困难.2环境经济评估的方法.3意愿调查评估法（CV法）简介.4理论基础和模型构造.4CV法的优越性和局限性.6北京市环境经济评估的意愿调查评估法的案例实施.8存在的问题和研究的意义.8调查的实施步骤.9调查偏差的消除111996年调查WTP的数据计算与分析.12WTP分布结果统计.12WTP占收入百分比分布结果统计.13WTP与社会经济变量的关系分析.142000年调查WTP的数据计算与分析19WTP分布结果统计.19WTP占收入百分比分布结果统计.20环境价值的估算21WTP与社会经济变量的关系分析.21七、1996年与2000年WTP的比较