经济学人双语阅读8.doc

经济学人杂志双语阅读：Microfinance微型金融Microfinance微型金融Sub-par but not subprime“微”而不“次”Mar 19th 2009 | LONDON AND TOKYO2009年3月19日伦敦、东京From The Economist print edition摘自经济学家打印版Lending to the poor has held up well but it is not as safe from the credit crisis as its champions hoped适逢信贷危机，面向贫困者的贷款业务还算稳定，不过也没能像拥护者们期望的那样独善其身A GLOBAL credit crisis caused by subprime mortgages is hardly the ideal backdrop for a business making unsecured loans to poor people without a credit history. Yet big microfinance companies, which do exactly that, seem to be in rude health. Mohammad Yunus, the unflappably optimistic founder of Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, a microfinance institution for which he won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006, is adamant that business remains unscathed. “We have not been touched in any way by the financial crisis,” he said on a recent visit to Japan. “The simple reason is because we are rooted to the real economy-we are not paper-based, paper-chasing banking. When we give a loan of $100, behind the $100 there are chickens, there are cows. It is not something imaginary.”虽然次级抵押贷款引发的全球信贷危机很难成为开展面向穷人的无抵押品贷款业务的理想条件，但是那些经营该业务的大型微型金融注1公司看起来却异常稳健。位于孟加拉国的格莱珉银行注2就是一家提供微型金融服务的机构，其创始人穆罕默德尤努斯因为成立该机构，于2006年获得了诺贝尔和平奖。沉稳、乐观的尤努斯坚信公司业务未受影响，并在最近一次日本之行中表示：“我们在金融危机中毫发无损，原因很简单，我们扎根于实体经济，而不是有价证券，也不是纸片追逐游戏注3式的银行模式。当我们贷出100美元的时候，这笔钱要么用来养鸡，要么养牛，都是些看得见摸得着的东西” 。He is not alone in thinking that microfinance is insulated from the problems of the global economy. Its proponents argue that any similarity with subprime loans is misleading. Microfinance institutions (MFIs) lend relatively small sums of money to people in developing countries to start small, profitable businesses, not to buy overpriced homes. Many of those businesses serve local needs, which has more merit at a time when exports are collapsing. And microfinances reliance on peer pressure for repayment must be the envy of any mainstream banker struggling with rising foreclosures and “jingle mail”; delinquency rates are microscopic.并非尤努斯一人认为微型金融可以在全球经济陷入困境时独善其身。追随者们认为，任何在微型金融和次级贷款之间寻求共性的举动都是一种误导。微型金融机构提供数额较小的贷款，发展中国家的人们以此做些有利可图的小买卖，而不是购买充满泡沫的房产。许多这类小买卖主要是为满足当地需求，一旦出口萎缩，其优势也就体现出来了。另外，微型金融依靠的是竞相还贷的趋同心理，这也必定让主流银行家们眼红，因为他们要疲于应付日渐增多的抵押贷款违约(表现为日益上升的止赎率注4和越来越多的寄钥匙的包裹注5)，而微型金融的违约率微乎其微。Some MFIs, however, do not enjoy the same isolation that their borrowers do. Many of them are funded internationally. According to the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP), a research centre in Washington, DC, foreign-capital flows into microfinance tripled between 2004 and 2006. About half the industrys funding comes from aid budgets, but the share of private money is growing. The World Banks private arm, the International Finance Corporation (IFC. gave 55% more each year to microfinance lenders between 2004 and 2007. MFIs, especially those in eastern Europe and Central Asia, also borrowed from foreign banks. Meanwhile the microfinance portfolios of private investment funds grew from $600 m in 2004 to $2 billion in 2006.不过有些微型金融机构并不像他们的借款人那样轻松，这些机构中很多都是跨国融资的。扶贫协商小组(CGAP)是一家设在美国华盛顿特区的研究中心，据该小组称，2004年2006年间流入微型金融的外国资本增长了两倍。微型金融机构的资本约有一半来自援助预算，不过民间资本的比重正在增加。2004年2007年间，世界银行所属的国际金融公司(IFC.每年为微型融资机构提供55以上的融资。微型融资机构也从外国银行贷款，尤其是东欧和中非的微型融资机构。同时微型融资机构的资本组合中，民间资本也由2004年的6亿增加到2006年的20亿。Funding from development institutions like the IFC is likely to be stable, but aid budgets are being cut and other sources of funding are threatened, too. Kimanthi Mutua, who runs K-Rep Bank, a big Kenyan microlender, says that in 2007 he fielded calls from prospective investors every couple of weeks. For the past six months he has not had a single call. According to CGAPs Elizabeth Littlefield, borrowing costs have risen by up to four and a half percentage points in some markets. Foreign-currency borrowers may have exchange-rate fluctuations to cope with. And some global banks are pulling out altogether. Even MFIs that borrow locally may find their banks funding is constrained by global conditions.从发展援助机构融资可能比较稳定，不过援助预算正在削减，其他的融资渠道也受到威胁。齐曼西穆托(Kimanthi Mutua)在肯尼亚经营一家较大的微型金融机构，名为K-Rep银行，他说2007年的时候每隔几周就会接到潜在投资者的电话，然而过去的六个月里，他一个电话也没接到。据来自扶贫协商小组(CGAP)的伊丽莎白.利特菲尔德(Elizabeth Littlefield)称，有些市场借款成本增加了4.5。借外币的人要应对汇率波动的问题。一些跨国银行完全撤出这一市场。全球形势甚至令在本地融资的微型金融机构在贷款时也受到了限制。An even more pressing concern is refinancing existing debt. Most MFIs have loans with one-or two-year tenures. According to the IFC, there is a potential refinancing gap of $1.8 billion over the next 18 months. The IFC and the German government have put together a $500 m fund to help microfinance firms with refinancing.更为紧迫的一个问题是债务再融资。多数微型金融机构都背负12年期的贷款。据国际金融公司(IFC.称，未来18个月可能出现18亿美元的再融资缺口。国际金融公司(IFC.和德国政府共同设立了一个5亿美元的基金以帮助这些微型金融机构再融资。All this, some experts argue, should encourage the institutions to start raising funds by collecting deposits rather than relying on fickle markets or donors. In Africa many MFIs already do this. The slow slog of attracting depositors can be off-putting, however, and may become harder if the crisis deepens. The World Bank estimates that worsening economic conditions could push an additional 65 m people under the $2-a-day poverty line. These people-formerly known as the “nearly poor”-were just the sort whose savings deposit-taking MFIs had hoped to target.一些人认为，所有这些都应该促使这些微型金融机构通过吸收存款来筹集资金，而不是单靠变数过多的市场和捐赠。许多非洲的微型金融机构已经这么做了。或许老牛拉车般吸收存款有些恼人，然而一旦危机进一步恶化，想让人存钱也难。世界银行估计，江河日下的全球经济可能再将6500万人推到每天2美元的贫困线以下。这些此前被列入“准贫困”行列的人，恰恰是微型金融机构吸收存款的对象。The squeeze on credit could expose additional frailties in the microfinance model. Many observers suspect that at least some microfinance loans actually finance consumption, not investment, and that borrowers use new loans from one MFI to pay off their debts with another. As long as new credit is readily available, this strategy works-much as paying off one credit card with another once did in the rich world. But the credit crunch may expose this as a problem, reckons Justin Oliver, who runs the Centre for Microfinance, a research centre in Chennai, India. Meanwhile, the IFC reports that data from the top 150 microfinance institutions show that the share of borrowers 30 days delinquent on their loans has increased from 1.2% before the crisis to between 2% and 3% now. This is still very low by most standards and Mr Yunus says that repayment rates at Grameen remain impeccable.But the worry is that a prolonged credit crunch could make microfinance clients start to look more like those hapless subprime borrowers.信贷的收紧可能令微型金融模式暴露出新的弱