耶鲁《金融市场》视频笔记.doc

This is Economics 252,Financial Markerts,这是经济类252号课金融市场and Im Robert Shiller.我是罗伯特.希勒。Let me begin by introducing the teaching fellows for this course;课程伊始，先介绍下课程助教and so I have them up here.我把他们的简历展示在这里We have five teaching fellows at this time本课共有5位助教and theyre from all over.来自世界各地。I like to out their pictures up.我把他们的照片也贴了上来。so youll know who they are.让你们知道他们长什么样。The teaching fellows are very international助教来自世界各地and that reflects my intention to这也反映了我希望此课make this a course that is also very international具有国际化视角because finance is something about the whole world today.因为金融关系到全球各个国家not just the United States.不仅仅局限于美国国内So we cover the world very well with our T.A.s.所以我们的助教来自世界各地Usman Ali is from Pakistan, Lahore.乌斯曼.阿里来自巴勒斯坦的拉合尔and he graduated from the LUMS.他毕业于LUMSLahore University of Management Sciences.也就是拉合尔管理科学大学Hes a PHDcandidate now in Economics他正在攻读经济学博士学位and hes doing his doctoral dissertation他的博士论文方向是on stock analysts recommendations and 股票分析师的建议the relation to returns in the stock market.和其与股票市场回报的关系Hes also interested in behavioral finance.他还对行为金融学感兴趣Which is the application of psychology to finance.也就是心理学在金融上的应用The second teaching assistant I see him right there.第二位助教他就坐在这间教室里if you could raise your hand Santosh Anagol.请举起手来桑托什.阿纳高。who is a representative of the United States.是一位来自美国的代表although he seems to have connections to India as well. 虽然他看起来也有印度血统He actually has a publication already他曾经在美国经济评论杂志上in the American Economic Review发表过文章on the Return to Capital with Ghana.研究的是加纳的资本回报He did this jointly with这是他和耶鲁经济学院院长the Chairman of the Economics Department here, Chris Udry克里斯.尤迪合作完成的and he has spent time in India looking at the village economies.他也曾在印度做过农村经济的研究You were going to be giving away cows, did you do that?你们不是打算送农民奶牛的么？送了吗？No, Im still working on cows没，我还在研究那个奶牛的问题but were not giving them away.但是我们现在不送奶牛了Okay, thats the last time youll hear about cows in this course.好吧，你们不会在课上再听到奶牛这个词了The idea was to give cows away to village farmers他们计划赠与村民奶牛And to observe the outcome.然后观察产出Its a big change in some of these very poor viliages to get a cow.奶牛对这些赤贫的村庄来说可是生财之道Christian Awuku Budu is from Ghana,Accra,克里斯蒂安.阿武库布都来自加纳的阿克拉but he ,again, went to college in但他的大学学业the United States at Morehouse College.是在美国的莫尔豪斯学院完成的He is also a PHD candidate in Economics at Yale他正在耶鲁攻读经济学博士学位and hes been doing research on他目前正在研究financial markets in developing countries.发展中国家的金融市场Yaxin Duan is from China.段雅心来自中国She got her undergraduate degree from Nanjing University.她本科毕业于南京大学No? You are from Nanjing, did I get a detail wrong?不对吗？你来自南京，我记错了吗？Where did you go to college?你在哪上的大学呢？Okay, well Im sorry about that.我很抱歉，我弄错了She is also a PhD candidate in Economics她也在攻读经济学博士学位and is doing research on the behavior of目前正在研究“期权微笑”也就是options prices in a phenomenon called the “Options smile,” 期权隐含波动率微笑现象中的价格变动趋势as shes smilling at me right now她现在正对我微笑呢She is also interested in behavioral finance她也对行为金融感兴趣which is great to me because thats one of my interests很棒，因为这也是我的兴趣之一She is shown here standing precariously on a cliff.照片上的她摇摇欲坠地站在悬崖的边上It makes me nervous to look at it 光看就让我觉着紧张Overlooking Machu Picchu in Peru眺望着秘鲁的马丘比丘山She also loves astronomy她还喜欢天文学which is incidentally an interest of mine too巧合的是，这也是我的爱好之一but you wont hear about it again in this course.但在这节课上我也不会提及Finally, Xiaolan Zhou is our fifth teaching assistant最后，周晓兰是第五位助教and shes also from China, Hubei Province她来自中国的湖北省She graduated from Wuhan University她来自武汉大学and is a PhD candidate in Economics at Yale目前正攻读耶鲁的经济学博士学位She is doing research on bank mergers她目前正从事银行合并的研究Let me say,那个Ive been teaching this course now for over twenty years and我教这门课已经有20多年的时间了Im very proud of all of my alumni我为自己的毕业生所骄傲Many of them are in the field on finance很多毕业生都在金融领域工作In fact, I like sometimes when I give.事实上，我喜欢当自己讲I give a lot of public talks我做过很多公开讲座When I give a talk on Wall Street当我在华尔街做讲座时or even somewhere else in the world或者是世界上其他的地方I sometimes ask my audience有时候我会问我的听众Did you take my course?你们有谁上过我的课吗Its not infrequent that Ill get one or even two people有的时候会有一两个人raising their hand that举起手说they took Economics 252 from me.他们上过我的经济学252号课But Im also proud of my alumni in this course同时我也很为那些选修过这课的who are not in the world of finance.却不在金融领域工作的毕业生们自豪I think this course goes beyond.我认为这门课不仅Its not just for people who are planning careers in finance它不仅为那些立志从事金融业的学生开设because finance is a very important technology因为金融是一门很重要的技术and its very important to know finance只有掌握了金融学的知识to understand what happens in the real world,才能真正了解国际大事的本质Just about any human endeavor involves finance.因为任何人类行为都能与金融沾上些关系Now, you might say.也许你会问I could be a poet and what does that have to do with finance?我想做个诗人，这跟金融有关系吗Well, it probably ends up having something to do with finance它很可能跟金融有关because as a poet you probably want to publish your poetry and因为作为一个诗人，你想要发表诗作youre going to be talking to publishers.那你就得和出版商谈谈Before you know it,不可避免的theyre going to be talking about their financial situation他们会说到自己的财务状况and how you fit into it以及你是否适合在他们公司出版作品I believe its fundamental and very important我相信这是理所当然的，也是很重要的I think you will find this course as not a vocational course.你会发现这不是一门为就业所设计的课程not primarily a vocational course.并不集中探讨业务知识but an intellectual course about how things really work.而是一门关于事物机制的课程I see finance as the underpinning of so much that happens.我将金融视为诸多事物的基础Its a powerful force that goes behind the scene它是一种潜藏在暗处的强大力量and I hope we can draw that out in this course.希望通过此课可以窥得其冰山一角There is another course -we have basic courses还有另外一门课，耶鲁共为In finance for undergraduates at Yale.大学生准备了两门金融方面的基础课程The other one is Economics 251, Financial Theory,还有一门是经济学251号课程，金融理论学this is Financial Markets,这是金融市场课that one is Financial Theory.那是金融理论学Last year it was taught by Rafael Romeu.去年是由拉斐尔.罗梅乌执掌教鞭because John, Geanakoplos因为通常教这门课的who usually teaches the course, was on leave约翰.吉纳科普洛斯请假了and so we had to find someone else.所以我们需要聘请了另一名教授I assume that next fall John Geanakoplos今年秋天约翰.吉纳科普洛斯will be teaching 251 again. 就可以继续教授251号课程了So what happened?怎么回事呢Why do we have these two courses?我们为什么要开设这样两门课呢Well it was something like eight years ago八年前的一件事that we reached the present situation with two finance courses.促使我们同时开设了两门金融类课程John Geanakoplos and I had a meeting约翰.吉纳科普洛斯和我开了个会and we tried to divide up the subject matter of finance 我们将金融这一学科into two courses分为两门课We thought Financial Theory and financial Markets would be the two.我们决定将其分为金融理论学和金融市场But the problem was that both John and I are interested in但问题是，约翰和我both theory and applications.对两者的理论及应用都十分感兴趣John Geanakoplos is actually约翰.吉纳科普洛斯为一家Chief Economist位于康涅狄格州格林威治的for a large investment company名为埃林顿基金的大型投资机构called Ellington Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut,做首席经济学家which youll see a lot in the news这家公司的大名经常见诸报端It has been very successful公司运作十分成功He is very much interested in the real world他对真实世界更感兴趣and I am interested in financial theory而我更倾向于金融理论学so we find it - we decided, after talking about it,所以我们发现在讨论后我们决定that we really cant divide up the subject matter of finance into我们不能将金融这个学科分为separate courses on theory and practice.两个不同的课程，即理论和应用If you tried to do one alone it would not work,非要分开单独来学的话是不可行的so we decided to divide it up imperfectly所以我们只能退而求其次and there may be some repetition between our two courses.分割后的两门课可能会有重复的部分Both of them are self-contained courses,两门课都自成一体so you could take either 251 or 252,你可以在251号和252号中任选一个or you could take both或者都选也行I think maybe the best option is to take both如果你真的对金融很感兴趣的话if youre really interested in the subject matter.我觉得最明智的选择就是都选It is true though that his course is他的课确实比我的more tuned into theoretical detail than min.更加偏向理论细节John is a mathematical economist约翰是个数理经济学家and we both love mathematics,我们都热爱数学but maybe John is going to do more of it than I am.但是约翰会讲授更多关于数学的内容This course actually will not use a heavy amount of mathematics.这门课不会使用太多的数学知识I try to keep it so that我可以保证这一点people who are not comfortable with a lot of math这样不太喜欢数学的同学can take this course也可以选这门课and I wanted to emphasize that this is-Ive said that its-我还想强调的是，我已经说过I think this course is vocational preparation in a sense.某种意义上这门课程也与就业有关I pride myself on the fact that我很骄傲的说people who have taken this course选了这门课的人find it useful in their subsequent lives,会在以后的生活中用到这些知识but on the other hand,而另一方面I think that its really interesting.我觉着这是门有趣的课At least I find it really interesting至少我自己这么觉得and so I hope that you will too但愿你们和我有类似的感觉Now I dont know, I may be different than other people,但我不确定，也许我和他人不太一样呢but I think organic chemistry is really interesting.我认为有机化学很有趣How many of you have that feeling?有多少人有同感呢Can I get a show of hands, who is interested in organic chemistry?对有机化学感兴趣的同学能举下手吗Im not getting a lot of hands raised,挺少的啊Unfortunately, Ive never taken a course in it,遗憾的是，我从未上过有机化学课But Ive started reading it lately但我最近开始读一些out of just my broad intellectual interest这是我广泛爱好中的一种That is a course that has a bad reputation, doesnt it?有机化学这门课的名声不太好，对吧Because people say Ive got to take that if I want to be pre-med.据说想做医学预科生的人才选那门课吧But, you know, to me theres a lot of detail in organic chemistry.但是，对我来说有机化学中有很多细节内容To me, when you read the detail对我来说，但你读到细节时youre getting into something deep and important你就会了解到事物机制中about the way everything works一些深刻并重要的东西了and so I start to find it interesting.所以我觉得它很有趣So I dont know how people feel about taking- 我不知道你们是怎么想的maybe Im turning you off by saying this-也许说这个让你们很倒胃口Theres going to be a lot of detail in this course.本门课中也有很多细节内容Maybe I made a big mistake by likening it也许将其比作有机化学课to an organic chemistry course-是个错误I dont mean to turn you off我不是故意想倒你们胃口的The idea in this course is that这门课的要旨在于by being a financial markets course,一门金融市场课you have to know how the world works,你会从中学到世界运转的方式Were going to be thinking about that我们会学到in connection with Financial Theory,它和金融理论之间的联系 but we have to get into the details;但我们还会学到一些细节内容so we are going to be -所以我们将要-we are going to be learning about facts.我们会学习一些实例Let me start by talking about the textbook.我先说说课本吧So the principal textbook is Frank Fabozzi,首选教材是弗兰克.法博齐的the other authors are Modigliani, Jones and Ferri,合作作者有莫迪利亚尼，琼斯和费里Foundations of Financial Markets and Institutions.金融市场与机构通论This textbook is very detailed and it may be -这本教材编写得非常详细，也许会Ive had some reaction by students-我听到过许多学生的反馈More than you wanted to know,涵盖面实在是太广了I actually had a great experience reading it.但我觉得这本书读来还是很棒的Actually, it was an earlier edition,我看的是早一些的版本when I first assigned this book in the year 2000,2000年我第一次将其指定为教材I took it with me on vacation.我带着这本书去旅行I was going to the Bahamas with my family我们家和杰里米.西格尔一家and with Jeremy Siegels family-一起去巴哈马群岛旅行well come back to Jeremy Siegel in a minute.过会还会提到杰里米.西格尔I sat down by the pool with this book.我拿着这本书坐在泳池边Other people were reading novels其他人在读小说and I dont know what else,我两耳不闻窗外事but I was reading Fabozzi,一心只读法博齐I had such a great time with it.读这本书是种享受so Im telling you my experience.跟你们交流下经验吧Maybe it was because it was filling in gaps in my knowledge-也许是因为它弥补了我知识上的缺陷things Ive always wanted to know and was always curious about.那些知识是我一直想要了解的Thats partly what you have to develop当你对某个领域非常感兴趣的时候when you get interested in a field;你可以培养一种习惯some sense of curiosity about all the details.就是对细节的好奇心So I read the whole book, 650pages,我读完了整本书，足足650页maybe I kind of read fast because I knew a lot of it.也许我读的很快，因为很多内容我都懂It might take you a little longer to get through it.你们读的话可能要多花些时间了but I wanted you to have the same experience.但我希望你们也能体验相同的乐趣Ive been assigning this book,我一直指定这本书为教材now its in another edition and-现在有了新版Fabozzi is working on a fourth or next edition.法博齐正在修订第四或者更往后的版本I forget what number我忘记版本号了Ive been assigning-我一直指定Ive gotten some complaints from students that有些学生向我抱怨说This book is tough going这本书很难because theres so much information in it.因为信息量太大I used to tell people.我过去常常说Im assigning the whole book我要求你们掌握整本书and you have to know everything in the book.你们要全看懂Thats a little ambitious.要求有点高了I finally backed down because我最终还是让步了I met a man on Wall Street,我遇到一个在华尔街工作的人a very prominent Wall Street person, and he said,一个非常杰出的华尔街人士，他说“You know, my son started to take your course.”我儿子原本选了你的课I said, “What do you mean started the course?”我说“原本”是什么意思He said, “Well, he dropped out when he saw this book and the requirements.”他说：他看了这本书和你的要求就退课了。I didnt like that, I dont want students to drop out.我不希望这样，我不希望学生中途退出。So what I decided is that所以我决定了you need to know the whole book in the sense that我把掌握整本书的要求改为you need to know all of the key terms and key points.你需要知道所有的关键词和关键点Now if you look at the structure of this book.如果你看了整本书的结构It has sections that say Key Points and Key Terms.就会看到有个关键点和关键词的部分。Anything thats mentioned there在这部分出现的内容is fair game for me in an exam都可能在考试中出现And thats the way Ive done it.这就是我考试的方式There are key points and key terms.这些关键点和关键词Also, anything in my lecture is 还有我课程中出现的内容of course fair game for the exam.都是可能考到的内容Let me also add that I have a reading list还有一点，我还有个阅读材料列表that has clickable things on it and also things that are on reserve in the library.其中有可点击的网络连接,也有可以在图书馆读到的内容。Anything thats clickable is required reading.可点击内容都需要阅读I dont expect you go to the library, however.我不指望你们去图书馆because I think that were moving into an age.因为我觉得我们进入了一个新时代where you tend to want to be online, right?在这个时代里，人人都想挂在网上吧So the library books are所以图书馆内的书all optional background.都是可供选择的背景资料Fabozzi, a faculty member here at Yale,法博齐是我们耶鲁的一位老师has offered to give me-他提议先给我we have at least one chapter这本尚未发行的新版中from the new edition that hasnt come out yet.至少一个重新编写的章节Im going to put that on reserve in the library;之后我会将它放入图书馆里but again, I think that the edition that you have不过，我认为你们手上的版本is reasonably up to date and so thats all已经包含了最新的信息that Im expecting you to read.我觉得你们看这个就行The other author, Franco M odigliani-in the book,这本书的另一位作者，弗兰克.莫迪利阿尼the second author- was my teacher at MIT.是第二作者，他是我在麻省理工大学的老师He died in 2003他在2003年过世了He is also a Nobel Prize winner and他也是一位诺贝尔奖获得者I think has a remarkable intellect.我认为他有着非凡的才华So this book, Fabozzi, et al.-所以这本由法博齐等人Fabozzi, Modigliani, Jones and Ferri-包括法博齐，莫迪利亚尼，琼斯以及费里is a very solid book about financial markets.这是一本关于金融市场的非常完备的书The second book that Im assigning第二本指定教材是is Jeremy Siegel,杰里米.西格尔所著Stocks for the Long Run.长期股票投资This is an old friend of mine.他是我的一位老友I met him in graduate school.我在读研究生时与他相识Funny story, I met him because at MIT有趣的是，我在MIT遇到他是因为they signed us all up for chest x-rays alphabetically-我们按姓氏字母顺序，排队去照胸透thats the way MIT does things, an orderly way.MIT做事总是用这种有条理的方式Shiller and Siegel are next to each other in the alphabet,希勒和西格尔按字母顺序是相邻的so I was standing in line with him for an x-ray所以我和他站在一起排队照X光and I got to talking with him and Ive known him ever since.我们开始聊天，从此我就认识他了。A funny coincidence is that巧合的是since our names are close in the alphabet-因为我们的姓氏在字母表中排在一起you often find our books right together in bookstores.所以书店里常见到我们的书也摆放在一起because Shiller and Siegel-因为希勒和西格尔if theyre shelving alphabetically-如果书店按字母顺序摆放书籍的话would end up together.我们的书就会放在一起He wrote a book called Stocks for the Long Run, starting in 1993.他1993年开始写这本长期股票投资It just came out with the fourth edition这本书刚发行了第四版and that book was a best seller.这是本畅销书I think it sold over a half million copies.我想它已经卖了超过50万本Im not sure where it is now我不知道销售榜上它排在多少位but it has done very well.不过它已经卖得很好了Its been a perennial classic.它已经成为经典It emphasizes the long run performance of the stock market.虽然这本书着重于股票长期投资but its really a general treatise of financial markets.但它其实是一本关于金融老市场的综合性著作I get very good reaction from students about this book.学生们对这本书的反响很不错This one is very readable.这是本非常易读的书Its not as intense as Fabozzi,et al.它没有法博齐那本书那么难Jeremy Siegel holds the unique distinction-杰里米.西格尔有个独特的荣誉Business Week did a poll asking MBAs商业周刊曾在MBA学生中做过一项调查about their favorite professor.推选他们最喜爱的教授This was about ten years ago.那大概是十年前的事了They ranked business school professors他们根据受欢迎程度according to their popularity.对商学院教授进行排名He came out number one in the United States结果在所有美国商学院教授中as business school propessor.他排名第一I think youll like this book我想你们会喜欢这本书的The next book is my own下一本书是我自己写的and called Irrational Exuberance.非理性繁荣This is the last book-这是最后一本推荐书目Thats a phrase that was coined by Allen Greenspan in 1996“非理性繁荣”是艾伦.格林斯美联领储主席在1996年创造的词and it refers to the stock market boom of the 2000s of the 1990s and the boom and the bust 这个词指的是21世纪初期股市的暴涨其实是20世纪90年代的暴涨和随后的暴跌well I think its related to the bust that came out later, after 2000我认为这种非理性繁荣 正是2000年后股市暴跌的原因I wrote this book in 2000 right at the peak of fortunately right at the peak of the stock market.我2000年写这本书的时候股市正处于最高点But what Im assigning to you is the second edition