汽车行业供应链报告（英文）.ppt

,CIMITServicesMarketOutlook:GlobalAutomotiveIndustry,BusinessIntelligenceGroupAugust2003,Contents,ExecutiveSummaryAutomotiveIndustryBusinessChallengesGlobalRegional:US,Europe,Asia-Pacific,RestofWorldAutomotiveITSpendingTrendsGlobalOpportunitiesforCRMMostmanufacturingverticals,includingAutomotive,havebeenoperatingin“survivalmode”,spendingverylittleoncapitalandoperationalexpenses;ITspendinghassufferedasaresult.TheNorthAmericanmanufacturingmarketconstitutesapproximately45%ofthetotalworldmanufacturingITspend.,ExecutiveSummary,CurrentlyintheautomotiveindustrythereislesssignificanceplacedontheroleofITinsupportingbusinessstrategies,especiallyincomparisontoindustrieslikeFinancialServicesorHealthcarepayerindustries.ThisisalargedeterminantofITbudget.Inordertounderstandtheirnear-termsalesvolume,optionmixandpricesensitivity,automakershavetostartunderstandingtheircustomersbetterthroughthemanysignalstheyseefromtheirconsumersinteractions.MuchofthiscanbeaccomplishedthroughCRMinitiatives.Whiledealerincentiveshavebeenusedbymostofthemajorautomakers,especiallyintheUS,companiesleveragingtheirexistingCRMmightbeabletogetmoreforless.Thedatagatheredfromincentiveprogramsflowingbacktomanufacturersanddealerscanallowfollow-upcampaignsthatbridgethegapbetweensalesandmarketing.ERPvendorsareturningtheirfocustodeliveringextendedapplicationsinareasofSCM,CRMandPLMtocompensateforthelossofrevenuefromlarge-scaleprojects.CompetitorsandAlliancesDeloitteConsultinghasajointinitiativewithSAPtosupporttheautomotiveindustryinthedeploymentofthemySAPAutomotivesolutiononaworldwidebasis.Aspartofthisinitiative,DCandSAParedevelopingmethodsforcustomer-specificanalysisonfeasibility,cost-benefit,andROI.IBMencouragestheirengineerstorotateinandoutofthefield,spendingtimesolvingreal-lifeproblemswhilenotabandoningtheirinsideresearch.IBMhascreatedaninnovationservicesgroupwithinitsresearchunitdedicatedtoworkingonautomotivecustomerproblems,makingthemcapableoftakingtheirresearchandapplyittobusinessissues.IntheEuropeanautomotiveindustry,SAPiscurrentlyfocusingoncrossfunctionalprocesses,packagingtheirSCM,PLMandCRMallinone,usingdifferentmodules,approachingitfromtheperspectiveofthebusinessprocessesthatcrosstheseareas.,GlobalAutomotiveIndustry:BusinessChallenges,GlobalAutomotiveIndustryisonaGradualSlide,Theworldsautomotiveindustryhasbeenonagradualdownwardslideoverthepastyear,acceleratedtosomedegreebythelikelihoodofamajorbankruptcyandfurtherrestructuringoftheindustry.Inhibitorsincludeweak(regional)consumerconfidence,highunemploymentanduncertainglobalequitymarkets,allofwhichhaveledtolowersales.InEurope,thefirstfivemonthsof2003sawsalesdropby4%whilenewregistrationsforMayfellthelowestinfiveyears.TheUSmarketisforecasttoshrink4%thisyear.Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Muchoftheover-capacityisduetoeachindividualcompanyexpectingtogrowfasterthanitsrivals.Andwhilethe90sshowedstrongreturns,manyautomakersinvestedinadditionalcapacity,createdriskymodels,builtmorefactoriesandenteredintoemergingmarketsthathadmorelongtermpromisethanshortterm.Formanyyearsthelargesttruckandcarmakershavecontinuallysustainedlossesoutoftheirprimarybusinessesofcarsales,oftenmakingprofitsthroughmoneymadefromsellingsparepartsatinflatedprices,throughfinancingbusinessesorthroughexchangerates.Thisstructureisincreasinglyexposedinadownturn,especiallywhenincentiveslike0%financinghavehamperedthefinancingbusiness.Carpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risingcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,makingthepressureevengreateronprice.IntheUS,incentiveslike0%financingormoneybackhavekeptvolumeupbuthavealsopressuredprices.Whileincentivesareexpensive,wheneverautomakerspushpricesbackuptheirvolumescollapse.,GlobalAutomotiveIndustryisonaGradualSlide,Asidefromproductissues,TheBig3haveunder-fundedpensionliabilitiesandhealth-carebenefitsforretirees.Fordislosingcashandtheirbondshavebeendowngradedtojunkstatus.IftheUSmarketcontinuestoslidealarge-scalecompetitiverestructuringcouldoccur.Europeancarmakers,likeFiat,whichisladenwithdebtandproductionissues,couldbepurchasedbyothercompanieslikeGM(thatowns20%),oreventuallybeboughtoutbythestate.TheindustryupsidesfortheBig3:GeneralMotorswillcontinuetopursueitsgrowthstrategiesinordertoremaincompetitive.DaimlerChryslersisinthemidstofitsimprovedcoststructure,allowingittobettercompetewithGM.Fordisspendingalotofmoneyoncapitalexpenditures.Ifthecompanydoesnotexecute,itmaybeincrisis.TheBig3productshavehigherqualitythanever,althoughtheperceptionofqualityisnotashighasitshouldbe.,Pensionandhealthcaresource:MSDW,BasedonMmgt.Discussions,TotalUSPensionFundandHealthcareLiability(inMM),USAutomotiveMarket:Slowing,butStilltheLargest,TheUSautoindustryisthemostimportantonetotheglobalindustrysincetherewere16.7MregistrationsintheUnitedStatesin2002(downbymorethan3%fromthealltimehighin2000).TheUSmarketforlighttrucksandSUVs(8.6Mregistrationsin2002)surpassedthecarmarketin2002(8.1Mregistrations).ThelowlevelofUSfueltaxesboostedSUVsalesfarmorethaninanyothercountry,althoughrisingoilpricesandenvironmentallegislationcouldreducesales.In2002,roughlyone-fifthofthecars,lighttrucksandSUVsregisteredintheUnitedStateswereforeign.Californiahasthehighestrateofpassengercarpurchases,accountingforroughly13%ofthetotal.TheUSindustry,regardlessofitshighnumbers,iscurrentlysaturated.Thestockofpassengercarsperheadwastheninthlargestintheworldin2002.Withnearly500carsper1000ofthepopulation,theUShasmorecarsperheadthantheUnitedKingdom,butslightlyfewerthanItalyandGermany.CarusageisextremelyhighintheUnitedStatesoverothercountriesintheworld.TheaveragepersonintheUnitedStatestravelsabout9,000kmperyear,comparedto6,000kminWesternEuropeand4,000kminJapan.,Big3ContinuetoLoseMarketSharetoJapan,Astheautomotiveindustrygetsmorecompetitive,AmericanconsumersarebuyingmoreJapaneseautomobilesduetotheirreputationforqualityandvalue.Toyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Thistrendstartedin1998,whendomesticmanufacturersstartedtolosenearly10pointsofshare,andtheJapanesegainednearly5.Industry-wide,carandlight-trucksalesweredown2.5%throughJune,to8.2M.However,thethreebiggestJapanesemanufacturerssold100,000morevehicles,andthedomesticBigThreesold200,000fewer.MarketshareforallJapanesebrandsisatanall-timehighof28.5%,anddomesticbrandshaveshrunktoahistoriclowof60.5%.,TheeconomicdownturnhasfavoredautomakerslikeToyotasinceconsumershavebecomemorestingyanddiscriminatingwiththeirpurchases,thusfavoringqualityandvalue,whicharethemajorsellingpointsformostJapaneseautomakers(versus,forexample,luxuryautos).TheJapanesecontinuetograbbiggerchunksofthemarketdespiterecordspendingonincentivesbytheirdomesticrivals.AtthebeginningofJune,incentivesforChrysler,FordandGMaveraged$3,389pervehicle,versus$1,062forJapanesebrands.Koreanmakesaveraged$1,371andEuropeanbrandsaveraged$1,945.,USCar/TruckShare1996vs.2003,Source:TheEconomist,June2003,Big3ContinuetoLoseMarketSharetoJapan,TheBig3sincentives(14%ofsaleprices)arelikelyunsustainable.TheirdependenceonincreasinglylargeincentivestooffsetthelowerresalevalueofUScarsreflectsperceivedproblemswiththeirlong-termqualityanddurability.Forexample,ToyotaandGMcarscanbevirtuallyidentical(sometimesmadeonthesameassemblylineaspartofaGM-Toyotajointventure),butbecauseGMsellsintheused-carmarketfor15-20%lessthanToyota,2GMroutinelyofferspurchaseincentivesof$1,000acar,fourtimesmorethanToyotasgivebacks.3TheBig3continuetoconcentratetheirtestingeffortsonthedefectratesofproductcomponents.However,thisfocusdoesntincreasethelikelihoodofproducingamoreappealingcar.FortheBig3,testsratethecarscomponentsbutwithlessemphasisontheperformanceoftheentirecarasmeasuredbythedesiredattributes(suchasquietness).Conversely,Japaneseautomakersareparticularlyeffectiveattestingfortheattributesthatexcitetheirtargetcustomers.TheHondaCivic,forexample,istestedextensivelyforthreekeyattributes:fuelefficiency,initialproductquality,anddurability.Theresultingvehicleismorethanacollectionofdefect-freesubsystems;itisacarthatperformswellintheareasthatcustomershavecometoexpectfromHonda.TheupsidefordomesticautomakersisthatitisdoubtfultheJapanesecancontinueincreasingtheirshareatthesamepace.FewersegmentsareleftfortheJapanesetoinvade.TheToyotadivision,forexample,offersafulllineofvehiclescomparabletoFordorChevrolet,andithasarangeofmodelsintheLexusluxurydivisionthatincludessedans,SUVs,andsportscars.ProfitabilityisalsopressuredattheBig3comparedtoAsianmanufacturers.Forexample,Hondaaverages$1,581inprofitpervehicle(soldintheUS)andToyotagets$1,214.GeneralMotors,however,earnsonly$701whileChryslerGroupmakesonly$226.Fordlosesanaverageof$114oneachvehiclesoldlastyear.,GlobalAutomotiveIndustry:MarketSharebyRevenue,Theglobalautomotiveindustryishighlyconcentratedwhilemarketshareisshifting.DaimlerChrysler,FordMotor,andGeneralMotorsmakeup44%oftotalglobalsales.However,thisisonepercentlessthanlastyear,indicatingtheBig3slossofmarketsharetosmallercompetitors.WhileToyotahasgreatlyincreaseditsmarketshareintheUS,thecompanyhasalsolostapercentageofmarketsharesincelastyear.ImportstoNorthAmericaarethehighesttheyvebeensincethelate80s.OfparticularconcerntoAmericanmanufacturers,lighttrucksales,oncethemajorprofitgenerator,arelosingsharetoforeigncompetitorslikeToyotaandNissan.,Source:StandardAndPoors,2003,IndustryProfitabilitySeverelyPressured,ThelargeautomakershavebeenfightingthedownturnandtryingtosustainsaleswithlargerebatesandeasycreditintheUSandincreasinglyinEurope.However,thesestrategieshaveseriouslypressuredprofits.DaimlerChryslerreportedinJuly2003thatnetincomefellworsethanithassincetheindustryslastpoorearningsperiodinlate2001.Mitsubishipromotedeasycredit,includingloansthatdeferredpaymentsforayeartoconsumerswithweakcreditbuthaverecentlyrescindedthispromotionduetoprofiterosion.PSAsprofitwashitmostlyduetotheriseoftheEuro,especiallyagainsttheBritishPoundandBrazilianReal,Brazilbeingwhereithasoneplant.Someautomakersareattributingthisspanofpoorearningstothebottomofthecurrentcycleofslowdown,howevermanyarestillseekingstructuralimprovementsandbetterpricingpowertobufferthiscycle.,Source:WallStreetJournal,EarningsReports,AutomakersStillPooratAligningSupplyandDemand,ProfitsintheglobalautoindustryaresufferingsinceOEMscannotaligntheirsupplywithconsumerdemand.Whileconsumerdemanddataisreadilyavailable,carmakersfollowlaggingindicatorsandtheresultisineffectiveadvertisingandrebatesandinventoryoverstocks.Thecurrentmethodsthatautomakersusetosatisfydemandareoutofalignment.Inrecordsalesyears(suchas2001),profitsintheautomobileindustryaveragedamere1.2%andonlythreecompaniesBMW,HondaandMagnaInternational-had5%profit.Forecastsoftenmissactualdemand.Forexample,demandforDaimlersPTCruiserfarexceededsupplywhenitcameonthemarket.ThenDCXrampedupcapacityto230Kunits,makingitordinaryandbuyersmovedon.Rightnowthefactoryisdiscountingthemodel,furthererodingthemodelsimage.Suppliersarehurtbyvariation.WhenanOEMplansincorrectlyonaparticularplatformvolume,ofabout10-15%,thefactoryhastoraiseorlowervolumesuddenly.In2002saleswerethelowestinfouryears,leavingvehicleinventoryat70days.Seventydaysofinventorycanmean$40Bincapitalsittingonlots.MeanwhiledealersandOEMsspend$3Band$11B,respectively,everyyearonadvertisements.Theloopfromproductionplanningtomanufacturetosaleandbacktakesupto6months,whichistoolongtofixoverproductionofanunpopularconfigurationortoinformsuppliersofsurgesindemand.Withalaggingmarket,intensecompetitionandmorerapidlyshiftingconsumertastes,thispooralignmenthasbeenmoreobviousintheindustrythanever.Automakersarestillapplyinglastyearssalesresultstothecurrentyearspre-plannedvolumewithoutconsiderationofhowmanydaysittooktosellspecificvehicles.,USAutomotiveDistribution:InefficientNetwork,DealersaccountfornearlyallUScarandcommercial-vehiclesales,butthesenetworksareincreasinglyinefficient.Automotivecompanieshavenotbeenabletorelocateorshutdownpoorperformersduetostatelaws.However,itispossibletoreshapedealernetworksbyorchestratingaseriesofownershipchanges,encouragingweakperformerstoexitthemarket,helpingtopperformerstoexpand,andencouragingdealerstoimprovesalesskills.Giventightprofitmargins,manufacturerscandefinitelyusetheextraprofitthatamoreefficientdistributionsystemcoulddeliver.U.Sdealernetworkswerebuiltinanincrementalanduncoordinatedwayoverseveraldecadescreatingroomforconsolidationaswellasotherefficiency-enhancingimprovements.Manufacturershaveawardedfranchisestothousandsofindependentowner-operatorsrangingfromsmallfamilybusinessestolargescalenationalchains.Onceadealershipopensforbusiness,themanufacturercantexertmuchdirectcontroloveritandmustbecontent,essentially,withtheroleofproductandfinancingsupplier.Multi-brandmanufacturersfacetheadditionalcomplicationofdealingwithseveraloverlappingnetworksthatworkagainstoneanother.Adealerhassubstantialpowertoputamanufacturerstopandbottomlinesatriskforexample,bycuttingbackitsinvestmentinfacilities,pushingthebrandsofcompetitors,orpursuingfewerbuthigher-marginsalesattheexpenseofthemanufacturersvolumegoalstherebyoptimizingitsprofitsandunderminingthoseoftheOEM.USautomotivemanufacturersrelyalmostentirelyondealerstodistributetheirproducts.In2001,dealershipshadsalesofmorethan$800billioncloseto100%ofthemanufacturerstotalvehiclesales.Themanufacturersalsodependontheirdealernetworkstoprovidetheafter-salespartsandservicesthatarefundamentaltotheirsuccess.,Source:McKinseyQuarterly,Strategyinothers,manufacturerscantcloseorrelocatepoorlyperformingdealershipsandmustsettleforisolatedandrelativelysuperficialstore-levelimprovements(remodelingshowroomsorprovidingadditionalsalesandservicetraining).Ifthemanufacturerswereallowed,manywouldhavealreadyrestructuredtheirdealernetworks,consolidatingtheirpresenceinsomemarketsandexpandinginothers.Amoreintegratedapproachwheredealersandmanufactuersworktogether,sharingsalesdata,trendsandinformationislikelythebestsolutionfordealersandautomotivemanufacturers.AmongtheBigThree,FordandDaimlerChryslereachhasmorethan4,000dealerlocationsintheUnitedStates;GMhasmorethan7,500.Assessingtheperformanceofeachdealership,settingitsgoalsforthefuture,andoverseeingthenecessarychangesisathree-tofive-yearprocess.Manufacturerscanstartbymappingthebestlocationsfortheirshowroomsandservicecentersineverylocalmarketbyanalyzinghistoricandprojectedsalesdata,demographics,andmarkettrends.Mostmanufacturershavenotundertakenthesesteps,andthuscantidentifydealersthathaveboththeskillsandtheresourcestoaddbrandstotheirfranchisesortosucceedinnewlocations.Tohaveanoptimallyconfigurednetwork,themanufacturermustputthebestdealersincontrolofit.Thismaybeaccomplishedbyusingnegotiatorstofacilitatethetransferofownershipamongdealersineachmarket.Manufacturerswillneedtoworkthroughdealerstoforgeaconsensusthatbenefitsboththemandthedealerstoovercomeregulatoryimpediments.,Source:McKinseyQuarterly,Strategynewcarregistrationsdroppedby6.5%inthefirsttwomonthsoftheyear.Theoutlookfornewcarsalesbeyond2003isbetter,reflectingrobusteconomicgrowth(albeitweakerthanin1998-2000).SpanishincomelevelsandconsumertastesaregraduallymovingtowardEUnorms,whilethePreverschemehasbeenextended.TheSpanishgovernmentintroducedthePreverschemetogiveautomobilebuyerswhoturnintheiroldautomobilea$533salestaxrebateonthepurchaseofanewautomobile.Carownershipisstilllowandthenumberofoldcarsremainingontheroadishigh,offeringpotentialforcatch-upgrowth.,Source:EIU,WesternEuropeanShareLosersandWinners(1Q03),Source:EIU,UnitedKingdom:StrongSellingMarket,PricingFalling,Despiteaweakereconomyandtworecordyearsin2001and2002,themarketfornewcarsintheUnitedKingdomisstillstrong.Fleetsalesusuallydrivethemarket,butinJune2003privatesalesledtheway.TheUKmarketisnowoneofthecheapestinEurope,offeringattractivedealstotheindividualcustomer.Newcarregistrationsincreasedby15.8%intheUKforthemonthofJunecomparedtoayearago.Justover240,000carsweresoldovertheperiodandnearly63,000ofthesewerediesel-powered.Nearlyhalfofthetotalsaleswenttoprivate-buyers.TheFordFocusremainsthebiggestseller,forthe38thmonthinarow,butthenewRenaultMeganehashadabigimpact,takingsecondplace.Thehighproportionofprivatesaleshasledtoanincreaseinnichevehiclessuchas4x4sandMPVs,whicharelesslikelytobeusedasfleetvehicles.Thefirst-halfperformancehasbeenstrongwiththemarketnowexpectedtototal2.45Munitsin2003.Thiswouldmakeitthethirdhighestyearofcarsalesbyvolumeonrecord,after2002and2001.Continuingcompetitioninthenewcarmarketplaceissqueezingpriceseverlower.This,coupledwithafallingpoundagainsttheEuro,ismakingnewcarsmoreaffordableandtheUKmarketamuchbettervaluethanotherEuropeanmarkets.NewcarssaleswillprobablycontinuetobestrongasconsumerstakeadvantageoftheUKsnewlyfoundpositionasoneofthecheapercountriesinEuropeforautomobiles(madeintheUK).Importershavesufferedastheiradvantageonpriceshrinksandthepropositionofanewcarfromatraditionaldealerbecomesmoreattractiveandaffordable.Theusedcarmarketcouldalsostruggleasresidualvaluesareforceddown.,Source:EIU,EasternEurope:SlowerEUDemand,DomesticDemandRemainsStrong,Surginglocalcurrencies,notablyintheEUaccessioncountries,haveloweredthecostofimportsandsqueezedexportmargins.NewcarsalesinEasternEuropehaveremainedbuoyant,notablyinHungary,buttheregionaccountsforonlyafractionofsalesinWesternEurope.Meanwhile,exportshavetakenahitthankstoslowgrowth.TheCzech-basedSkoda,ownedbyVolkswagen,isE.Europeslargestautomaker;itsawits2002netprofitdrop14.5%yearonyeartoKc1.8bn($65.5M),whilesalesfellby3.2%,to445,525units.Thecompanydoesnotanticipateaquickrecovery,andexpects2003resultstobeflat.Onthesupplyside,EasternEuropestillcontinuestohavepotentialfortheWest.East-CentralEuropeinparticularoffersanappealingcombinationoflow-costskilledlabor,proximitytoWestEuropeanmarketsandapotentiallylucrativemarketinitsownright.EasternEuropehassophisticatedsupplynetworks-componentsmakersintheCzechRepublicsupplysome22internationalcarfirms.EasternEuropecouldalsoeventuallybealargerpartoftheupcomingChinesemarket.Forexporters,thehighershippingcost