市场下跌时,如何评估住宅房地产.ppt

1,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,AppraisalofResidentialRealEstateinDecliningMarkets市场下跌时,如何评估住宅房地产,主讲人:MarkRattermann,MAI,SRA联系方式MarkE,2,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,SeminarLearningObjectives主要内容,Recognizegeneralsourcesofmarketinformationthatmaygiveindicationsofmarkettrends.识别反映市场趋势的市场信息Recognizeadeclineinalocalmarketwhenitoccurs.及时发现当地市场出现的下跌趋势Measurethevaluelossesinlocalmarkets.估算市场中的价值损失Applythemeasuredrateofchangeintheanalysisofrealestateusingthecostapproach,incomecapitalizationapproach,andsalescomparisonapproach.在使用成本法,收益法,市场比较法分析房地产时,如何考虑价值的变化Illustratethetoolsnecessarytoshowyourclientstheresultsoftheresearchandanalysis(numericandgraphic).给客户演示研究和分析结果的工具(数字和图表)Applyvariousmethodstorecognizeandadjustformarketchange.使用不同的方法,分析和调整市场的变化Applythesetechniquesinsimulatedrealestatesituationsthroughcasestudies.案例分析,Slide2,Pagevii,3,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide3,Section1第一部分,Part1.DecliningMarkets下跌的房地产市场Part2.GeneralMarketData市场数据Part3.IdentifyingtheMarket深入了解市场Part4.MeasuringtheMarketTools市场分析的工具Part5.CaseStudies(optional)案例,4,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide4,Part1.DecliningMarkets第一节:下跌的房地产市场,Introducestheissues简介Definestheterms定义Discussespossiblereasonsfordecliningmarketsandassociatedproblems.市场下跌的原因和相关问题Recognizethesignsofadecliningmarket.识别反映市场趋势的市场信号Recognizetheproblemscreatedforrealestatebuyersandsellersbydecliningmarkets.认识买方和卖方在下跌市场中存在的问题Recognizetheimpactoffallingvalueonequityinterests.了解价值下降对自有资金收益的影响Identifytheappropriatelocationsonthecommonlyusedresidentialappraisalformstoexplainmarketconditions.通用表格式估价报告中如何说明市场市场条件,5,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide5,“LasttoKnow”,Appraisersstudyhistoricaldatatosupportcurrentvalues.通过研究历史数据,研究当前的价值Weneedtorecognizeexistingtoolsandexplorenewones.现有的工具和开发新的工具来分析市场变化Useacombinationoftools(oldandnew)同时使用各种工具(新,旧)Appraisersneedtobeabletodevelop“trendanalysistools”.估价师应该有能力开发“分析市场的工具”.,6,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Recognizeeconomicproblemswhentheyoccur.及时发现经济中存在的问题Analyzetheimpactonrealestateofgeneraleconomicchanges.分析经济变化对房地产市场的影响Reconcilethemixedmessages.综合考虑各类信息Reportyouropinion.在估价报告中说明你的观点,Slide6,AnalyticalToolsHelpAppraisers分析工具对估价师的帮助,7,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Itismoredifficulttoovervalueaproperty.很难不高估房地产的价值Theeffectivedateofvaluereflectsthemarketconditions估价时点反映了市场条件Itisalsocommonforappraiserstobe“forgiven”whenpricesareincreasing.See1.1Example.当价格上升时,估价师的错误经常被掩盖.见下一案例,WhenaMarketIsAppreciatingRapidly市场快速上升时,8,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Anappraisererroneouslyappraisesapropertyfor￥300,000thatisworthonly￥275,000.Inthismarket,valuesareincreasingat10%peryear.Lessthanoneyearaftertheoriginaldateofappraisal,thepropertyisnowworth￥300,000.Anypreviouscomplaintaboutovervaluingisdiminishedbyitscurrentworth.Thisappraisalmightberegardedasaproblembytheappraiserspeers,butnotbythepublic.,1.1ExampleAppreciationCuresaLotofIlls,9,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Itisnaturaltoovervalueaproperty.高估是正常的Anoverpricedpropertyonthemarketforalongtimemovesfurtherawayfrommarketvalueeachday.See1.2Example.高估的市场价值每天都在减少,WhenaMarketIsDeclining市场下跌时,10,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Thesubjectisinamarketwherepricesarefallingbyabout3%peryear.Thepropertywascorrectlyappraisedat￥300,000,butitwasoverpricedanddidnotsell.Theselleraggressivelyloweredthepriceby.25%eachmonth.Asaresultofthedecliningmarket,thesellerkeptevenwiththechanges.Thepropertywasneverpricedwithinthiscompetitivemarket.,1.2ExampleChasingtheValueDowntheHill,11,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Optimisminadecliningmarkethasitscosts.Inadecliningmarket,anaccuratevalueopiniontodaymaynotbevalidtomorrow.,1.2ExampleChasingtheValueDowntheHill,12,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Ifthereisnegativeequity,sellingthepropertyandpayingoffthemortgagemaynotbeanoption.Thereisanoldrealestateaxiom,“Negativeequitybreedsforeclosure.”Theonlyoptionmaybetoholdthepropertyaslongaspossibleandthenallowaforeclosure.Decliningvaluesbringtolightmanyproblemsthatareotherwisehiddenbyappreciation.Evenifthebrokercansellthepropertyformorethanthemortgageamount,theremaynotbeapayday.See1.3Example.,NegativeEquity,13,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,1.3ExampleNegativeEquityBreedsForeclosure,Thesubjectpropertyislistedforsaleat￥349,900.Thebrokerthinksitwillsellfor￥345,000inthismarket.Thebrokerfeeis6%andothercostsadd1%.Thebrokerturneddownthelistingbecausethesellersdidnothaveanymoremoney.Thebrokerdidnotthinkshecouldsellthepropertyformorethan￥345,000.,14,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Inotherwords,thesellersdidnothavethemoneytoclose.,1.3ExampleNegativeEquityBreedsForeclosure,15,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Part2.GeneralMarketData第二节:市场数据,LearningObjectivesDefinemarketdataterms.市场数据的定义Identifysourcesofgeneralmarketdataforappraiserstoresearchmarketconditions.市场数据的来源Definetheweaknessesofapplyinggeneralmarketdatatoaspecificmarket.市场数据中存在的缺陷Illustratehowsomemarketsfunctionwhentherearesignificantsupplyanddemandswings.分析供需变化,16,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,ContractRateon30-YearFixed-RateHomeMortgages贷款的浮动利率和固定利率,Theabove-listedinterestratesarefairlyhighintheearly1980s.Theratesgenerallydeclinein19821983,1986,1994,and19992000.,Page2-18,17,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,ContractRateon30-YearFixed-RateHomeMortgages,Anapplicantwhoqualifiesfora￥1,000permonthmortgagepaymentata6%interestratecouldborrow￥166,791.61.At14.5%,thatsameapplicantcouldborrowonly￥81,662.26.HigherinterestratesinhibitdemandbecausebuyersdonotwanttopayhigherratesBuyersmayevenchoosetowaitforlowerrates.,18,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,NationalAssociationofRealtors(NAR),nationaldatabaseofsalesandlistings,19,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,MedianSalePrice-ExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(NAR),20,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,MedianSalePriceExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(000somitted),21,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,ExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(NAR),Page2-20,22,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide22,AllStateData(NAR),CityMedianSalePriceTrends,24,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,TrackingBuildingPermitscangiveacluetoachangeindemandinthebeginningofadownturnmarket.Ifthemarkethaschangedforawhilepermitsbottomoutandthenarenotagoodclue.,25,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,TrackingBuildingPermitsfromDept.ofCommerce.,26,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,NewPrivatelyOwnedHousingUnitPermitsx1,000,27,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,WhatKindofMarketsExist?,Thefirstmarketinthisgraphisavolatileonewherelargeincreasesinpricesoccurandthenlargedeclines.,28,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,“Althoughthisgeneraldataisinteresting,howcanitbeappliedtoappraisalpractice?”Whencombinedwithdatafromothermarkets,cannotbeusedtodiscernlocalmarketconditions.AppraiserscanrelyonthesedatasourcestohelpidentifyachangeinmarketconditionsthatCOULDbehappeninglocally.ThisisexcellentdataforunderwriterswhoreviewappraisalsthroughoutChina.Itispossibleforalocalmarkettobesubstantiallydifferentduetochangesinemployment,housing,orevenschoolratings.Thelocalmarketdatamaybemisleadingifthestatisticsarenotcalculatedonanongoingbasis.,RelevanceofGeneralDatatoLocalAppraisers,29,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Part3.IdentifyingtheMarket深入了解市场,Identifycriteriathatbuyersusetoselectapropertytopurchase分析买方购买物业的原因Recognizethatanoversupplyinonemarketmaynotmeananoversupplyinanothermarketorsubmarket一个城市供给过度另一个城市供给并不一定过度Beabletodivideamarketintosubmarketstoidentifytrendsthataffectonesegmentbutnotallofthem将市场细分,分析局部对整体的影响,30,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,IsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?一个市场的信息可以应用到另一个市场吗,Ifanappraiserseespricesfallinginonemarket,canitbeassumedtheyarefallinginallpartsofthesamegeographicarea?Inanymarket,pricescanincreaseordecreasesignificantlyifabasiceconomicfactorchanges.Isthemarketinoneprovinceorregionthesameasinotherprovincesorregions?Thereisonlyonethingcertaininthisdiscussionthereisno“onesizefitsall”market.,31,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,IsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?,Arethesamemarketconditionsapplicabletoallcommunitieswithinthesameregionofaprovince?Increasingordecliningpricesresultfromshiftsinsupplyanddemandintheshortrun.Therearemanyfactorsthatwillimpactonecommunitymorethananother.,32,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Aremarketconditionsinacommunityapplicabletoallpriceranges?Thefactorscausinghighorlowdemanddonothavetobeapplicabletoalldemographics.Isthemarketforfour-bedroomhomesthesameasthemarketfortwo-bedroomhomes?Sincethedemographicisdifferent,themarketconditionscouldalsobemuchdifferent.,IsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?,33,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,MarketsandSubmarkets市场和市场细分,Anopinionofmarketvalueviasalescomparisonisresearchbasedonwhatpriormarketparticipantshavedone.Thisrequirestheappraisertoidentifythemarketandanysubmarkets.Thepossiblecriteriausedtoidentifyandsegregateamarketreflectthecriteriabywhichbuyerschoosepropertiestoview.Anappraisercannotcountthenumberofbuyersandsellerswithoutknowingtheircriteria.,34,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,ExamplesofCriteriaUsedinPurchaseDecisions,SchoolsystemMunicipalgovernmentservicesParkdistrictLibrarydistrictLocationFireprotectiondistrictsPolicedistrictsLotsizeUtilitiesavailable,Page3-39,35,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,ExamplesofCriteriaUsedinPurchaseDecisions,QualityofimprovementsAgeofimprovementsConditionofimprovementsSizeofimprovementsBasementandbasementfinishEnergyefficiencyCarparkingOtherfeatures,Page3-39,36,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Searchtoolscancompiledatafromasmall,localmarketarea.Someofthisdataiscompiledandgraphedforthebrokerorappraiserasshownonthefollowinggraph.,Part4.MeasuringtheMarketTools-LocalDatabases市场分析的工具,37,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,37,LocalDatabaseInformationpre-calculatedanalysis,Page2-22,LocalDatabaseInformation当地数据信息,Somedatabasesallowappraiserstodownloadlargeamountsofsalesinformation.Thisdatacanbeinterpretedandpresentedbytheappraisertosupportconclusions.Therearegraphictoolsandregressiontoolsavailable.Forexample;,38,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,39,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,39,LocalDatabaseInformationforaspecificsubdivision.,40,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,40,Graphwithregression(trend)linefromlocaldatabaseinformationforaspecificsubdivision.,Page2-23,41,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,LocalDatabaseStatisticsCarmelIndiana,41,42,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,ToolsSupplyandDemandStudy,Thefirstsignofachangingmarketcanbeverifiedbytheappraiserwhiledevelopingthesupplyanddemandstudy.Measurethemonthlysalesrate,e.g.theannualnumberofsalesinthemarketdividedby12.Dividethenumberofcurrentforsale(listings)bythemonthlysalesrate.,43,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Assesstheattributesofthesubject.Decidewhothetypicalbuyerisinthedesignatedmarket.Designasearchtocountthenumberofcompetingpropertiesforeachpotentialbuyer.,ToUseThisTool,theAppraiserMust,44,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,CountthenumberofCurrentlistingsavailablewithinthosebuyercriteriaComparablesalesthathaveclosedinthelast12monthsDividethenumberoflistingsbythemonthlyabsorptionrate.Eitheranexcessoralackofpendingsalescouldindicateachange.Pendingsalesandexpired/withdrawnlistingsdonothavetobeincluded.Thisanalysiscanbedonefor6or12months.,ToUseThisTool,theAppraiserMust,45,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,4.1ExampleSupplyandDemandAnalysisofOversupply,Thesubjectpropertyisimprovedwithatwo-storyhousebuiltin1997withafullbasementandanattachedtwo-cargarage.Theappraisersanalysisindicatesthehomeshouldsellforabout￥350,000.,46,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,4.1ExampleSupplyandDemandAnalysisofOversupply,Thisisprobablythebesttoolavailabletoeasilyresearch,analyze,andreportanoversupplyproblem.Thedataimpliesthatthereiscurrentlya37-monthsupplyofhomesforsaleinthismarket.Appraiserswhofeeltheneedtoreporttheperimetersofthesearchshouldnotincludebedrooms,aschoolsystem,orotherattributesthatmaycausefairhousingconcerns.,47,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,4.2ExampleSupplyandDemandAnalysisofUndersupply,Thesubjectisaone-storyhomebuiltonslabwithadetachedfour-cargarage.Itwasconstructedin1930.Theappraiserhasvaluedthehomeat￥550,000.,48,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide48,Thisexampleshowsamarketfavoringsellersthatwouldprobablycausepricestoincrease.Ifthecomparablesalesusedinanappraisalarerecent,theywouldalreadyreflecttheimpactofsuchamarket.Thequestionraisedbyboth4.1Exampleand4.2Exampleis,“Doesthisreflectthemarketforthesubjectasoftheeffectivedateofappraisal?”,4.2ExampleSupplyandDemandAnalysisofUndersupply,Page4-50,49,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide49,ToolsUsingComparableListingsinAdditiontoSales,Anothertoolusedbymanyappraiserstoensuretheyareawareofadeclineinthemarketisincludingtwoorthreecurrentcomparablelistingsintheanalysis.Anexampleofananalysiswithcomparablelistingsappearsonthenexttwoslides.,Page4-50,50,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Comparables1and2,51,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Comparables3,4,and5,52,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Noticetheoldersalesindicateahighervaluethanthemorerecentcomparable3.Listings4and5showamuchloweradjustedvalue.Inamarketwherethiskindofdatadoesnotexist,theappraiserusesthedataavailableandlooksfortrendsafteradjustmentsaremade.Insomedownturnmarkets,thenumberoflistingsisplentiful,butthenumberofrecentcomparablesalesislimited.,ToolsUsingComparableListingsinAdditiontoSales,53,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,ToolsUsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio,Twomoretoolsusedbyappraisersaredaysonmarket(DOM)andlistpricetosalepriceratioforunitssoldinaspecificmarket.Thiswillgivesomeindicationofthecurrentmarket.See4.3Example.,54,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,4.3ExampleDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio,ThesubjectislocatedinamarketwherethefollowingdatawasfoundintheMLScomputer.Thedataalonewouldimplyachangeinmarket.Thebargraphonthenextslideillustratesthisaswell.TheDOMisforsoldunits.,55,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,4.3ExampleDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio,56,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide56,ToolsUsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio,Thestudyofdaysonmarket(DOM)canbeagoodtool.Itcanalsobemanipulatedbyrealestatebrokerswhoaretryingtomaketheirlistingslookasrecentaspossible.See4.4Example.,Page4-56,57,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide57,4.4ExampleDaysonMarket(DOM),Thesubjectisaverylargehomeinasmalltown.Ithasbeenonthemarketfornearlythreeyears,butappraiserswhofindtheMLSlistingpagewillthinkithasbeenonly45days.Thebrokerhashadthelistingforalongtime,andeachtimeitexpires,itisrelistedwithaslightlydifferentaddress.Theactualaddressofthepropertyis2929WestSouthlakeBoulevard.Thefirsttimeitwaslisted,theaddresswasspelledoutinfull.Thesecondtime,theword“West”wasabbreviatedas“W.”Thethirdtime,“Boulevard”wasabbreviatedas“Blvd.”Thefourthtime,“Southlake”waslistedastwowords,“SouthLake.”,Page4-56,58,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide58,Thestudyoflistpricetosalepriceratioscanalsobemisleading.See4.5Example.,ToolsUsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio,59,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Thesubjectwaslistedfor￥499,000for30days.After60days,thepricewasloweredto￥475,000.After90days,Itwasloweredagainto￥449,000.Finally,afterthepricewasreducedto￥439,900,itsoldfor￥435,000.Thefinallistpricetosalepriceratioseemsquitereasonable,butthatisbecausethelistpricewasreducedsomanytimes.Thisratiosometimesshowsabigdiscountbecausesellersaremoreaggressiveintheirnegotiationsinadowntownmarket.Itshouldalsobepointedoutthatwhenconcessionsaremorecommon,thelisttosalepriceratiowillbeskewed.Insomesituations,thisratiomayexceed100%becauseoftheinclusionofconcessions.,4.5ExampleListPricetoSalePriceRatio,60,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Appraiserswillfindthatthecostapproach,afterdeductingonlyphysicaldepreciation,showsahighervalueindicationthanthesalescomparisonapproach.Thecostapproachdoesnotinherentlyrecognizeexternalproblems.Ahighervalueconclusioncouldalsobeduetounrecognizedfunctionalproblems,bias,orerrorsinthecurrentcostorsitevalueestimates.,ToolsComparingtheCostApproachtotheSalesComparisonandIncomeCapitalizationApproaches,61,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide61,FannieMaerequiresaone-yearsaleshistoryforthesubjectpriortotheeffectivedateforthecomparablesales.USPAPrequiresathree-yearsaleshistory.Thisisanexcellenttoolifthedataisavailablebecauseitshowstheactualchangesinamarket.Thesaleandresaleofthesamepropertyeliminatesanylocationaldifference.Thesaleshistorytellsappraisersifamarkethasahighappreciationrateordecliningvalues.Thetableonthenextslideshowsvariousitemsforconsiderationwhenusingthesaleandresaleofthesamepropertyasanindicationofmarketconditions.,ToolsAnalysisofaSale,ResaleoftheSameProperty,Page4-57,62,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,AnalysisoftheSaleandResaleoftheSameProperty,Page4-58,63,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide63,4.6ExampleAnalysisofComparableSalesHistory,Thesubjectisanolderhomeinahistoricdistrictwherebuyersareconstantlyupgradingproperties.Theappraiserdeterminesthatthemarketisweak,butallthesalesandresalesindicatesignificantappreciation.Theappraiserthenfurtherverifiesallthesalesandfindsthedatashowninthenextslide.,Page4-61,64,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,4.6ExampleAnalysisofComparableSalesHistory,65,ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents,Slide65,Part4.MeasuringtheMarketTools,cont.,ToolsStatisticalAnalysisoftheMeanorMedianSalePriceInsomesituatio