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本科毕业设计(论文)开题报告题目: 贵阳“铜古岁月”总部基地营销策划方案课 题 类 型: 设计 实验研究 论文 学 生 姓 名: 学 号: 专 业 班 级: 学 院: 建筑工程学院指 导 教 师: 开 题 时 间: 2014年3月1日2014年3月1日 一、本课题的研究意义、研究现状和发展趋势(文献综述)1研究意义房地产营销策划是指运用整合营销概念,从观念、设计、区位、环境、房型、价格、品牌、包装、推广上对开发建设项目进行整合,合理确定房地产目标市场的实际需求,在深入了解潜在消费者深层次及未来需求的基础上,为开发项目规划出合理的建设取向完全符合消费者的要求,并通过消费者的满意使开发商获得利益的过程。据统计,2010年1-3月,全国完成房地产开发投资6594亿元,同比增长35.1%,高于同期固定资产投资增速9.6个百分点,占同期固定资产投资的比重为29.2%。全国房地产业的日趋繁荣逐渐成为固定资产投资增长的主要力量,也逐渐成为国民经济持续增长的重要因素。大力发展房地产业,对于解决旧城改造,改善人民的居住水平,乃至城市的发展,具有十分重要的意义。中国房地产营销业的兴起和发展,为加速房地产的循环创造了条件。从当初的“一无所有”到现在的“无处不在”,可以说,营销观念的树立以及各种营销方式的使用,是房地产业蓬勃发展的一个见证。房地产营销与房产开发有着密切的关系。房地产业的蓬勃发展使营销业空前兴旺,同时由于现代市场营销理论在房地产销售中的应用,使房地产业的发展又上了一个新台阶。随着房地产开发微利时代的趋近,房地产业的理性化发展与市场的不断成熟,对房地产营销策划的深入,竞争激烈的房地产营销时代已经到来。2研究现状(1)房地产营销策划的现状房地产营销策划逐渐得到业界的广泛关注与相当程度的认可,尽管普遍认为房地产营销方式已经从单一化趋同全面化,营销服务已经从表面趋向追求内涵,营销推广已经从杂乱无章趋向规范有序,但纵观现今楼市营销策划很多地方仍然值得深思。许多营销商、开发商对营销的认识仍留于肤浅,甚至有的由于理解的偏颇导致在实际运作中使营销策划走入误区。如何理性认识营销的内核,促进房地产业的健康发展是摆在中国房地产营销界面前的一个迫在眉睫的问题。随着国家不断出台各种宏观调控政策,我国房地产市场已经由卖方市场过渡到买方市场,行业间的竞争也越发激烈。为了能使自己的企业在市场上占有一席之地,并获取更大的利润,开发商纷纷意识到房地产营销策划的重要性。各种营销理念粉墨登场,如品牌营销,生态住宅,欧式住宅等。各种营销手法层出不穷,例如“形象代言人”,“一口价开盘”,“通过房地产模特促销”和在短时间内采用大手笔广告投放,引起市场轰动,从而迅速树立楼盘市场形象的“集束广告投放”等。在广州和深圳,房地产营销更是达到登峰造极的阶段,出现了“直升机看楼”,“热气球派送单”,“百万富翁送大奖”等。世界著名管理学大师彼得德鲁克曾精辟的指出:现代企业最重要的职能只有两个,一个是创新,一个是营销。这一结论也完全适用于我国房地产业。目前,营销策划的不断求新、求变、求异,的确发挥了很大的作用,有效地推动了住宅消费的需求,激发了市场热点,促进了房地产业大力发展。但还需要进一步完善与发展。(2)房地产营销策划存在的问题1)市场调研不足,难以把握市场需求。凡是策划类事务不是靠冲动和想当然进行的,而是以大量的真实准确的市场信息为依据。而掌握市场信息就必须依靠科学的市场调研,据此帮助企业进行市场定位,进一步了解同行业状况,分析竞争对手,窥探市场需求等情况。然而,纵观现今房地产业,许多房地产开发商缺乏广泛而有深度的市场调研,脱离实际,使得营销策划成为空中楼阁,经不起时间的推敲和市场的考验。如调查方式单一、缺乏相互印证、不论楼盘大小,取样总是一个常量;调查数据针对性不足,对项目规模、位置、特点等消费对象的关系缺乏整体把握;样本数量不足,以偏概全,导致结果与实际差距很大。有时调查中混淆了有效需求与潜在需求的差异。潜在需求是无经济购买能力的欲望和需求。有效需求是具有经济购买能力的现实需求。不重视潜在需求和有效需求的区分,导致定位“缪之一厘,差之千里”,造成调查时需求者众,开盘后购买者寥寥无几的局面。房地产产品的销售对象是有经济购买能力的现实需求者,只有具有购买能力的一部分潜在需求才能成为有效需求。尽管潜在需求会转化成有效需求,但他们的消费偏好往往不同,因此必须严格区分有效需求与潜在需求,做合理的甄别。2)目标市场不明,市场定位比较模糊。目标市场和市场定位这两个概念是市场营销的基础,没有明显的目标市场和清晰的市场定位,一切策划和营销就会变得无的放矢和摇摆不定。目标市场是指企业对市场经过比较、选择、细分后,决定作为服务对象、确定自己的产品所要进入的相应的子市场。市场定位则是指企业设计出自己的产品和形象,从而在目标消费者心中确定与众不同的有价值的地位,即在潜在消费者心里奠定企业产品的位置和印象。简单说,先确定目标市场,才有市场定位。实践中有时会混淆这两个概念,对目标市场的特征和偏好尚未明了,就直接做市场定位,使得市场定位缺乏实在可靠的支撑。随着人民生活水平的提高,消费者对高档住宅的需求虽然在逐步增长,但由于消费者群体社会地位、收入水平和文化素养的差异,其需求也会表现出多层次性的特点。许多房地产开发商并未全面充分地认识到这种市场需求的差异,不顾当地经济及实力和居民的承受能力,甚至毫不顾及企业自身的资源条件,没有明确的目标,不进行科学的市场定位,盲目兴建高档公寓、别墅、办公楼和商业住房,最终导致诸多楼盘滞销,而适应广大中低收入家庭的经济住房却十分短缺。3)忽视全程营销,过分关注企业收益a.房地产营销策划介入过迟。多数房地产开发商只注重后期推销,不重视前期营销和企业形象设计。涉及企业长期发展战略的形象策划大多都没有引起足够的重视,即便有也是围绕某一开发项目或为销售某一产品不得不进行的一种活动。由于营销策划介入过晚,导致投资决策失误,开发产品不对路,以至于到中期尽管投入了大量的人力物力宣传推销,仍然有大量商品房滞销。尽管房地产开发主管部门多次为消化空置商品房采取了不少措施,但空置商品房量仍呈上升态势。b.房地产公司仅注重销售结果。房地产营销策划的成败单纯以销售结果作为评价指标,不注重真正的全程营销过程,主要以广告投入为主。 营销策划重心在营销而非策划。房地产广告看得多了,房地产公司任何人都能说出几个,但深入程度仅仅局限于楼盘名称。德式设计、美国小镇、江南水乡、欧式风格,一味追逐市场流行,而抛弃了真正的文化根基。c.房地产公司只考虑企业利润。在目前的中国房地产市场,最普遍的一个营销现状就是功利味太重。这种功利营销在目前房地产市场的主要表现:轻前期规划设计,重后期营销推广,这是功利营销的一个非常显著的特点。一个开发项目,往往卖点很多,规划、房型、景观、配套、物业等等都可以成为卖点。然而,许多的开发商和“策划大师们”通常将一系列的卖点罗列,以推销自己的产品。这种方式不但缺乏对客户细分的研究,更对产品的细分不够,因而达不到预期的目标。与此同时,近年来,我国房地产界炒作“概念”之风盛行,有生态、区位的,有人文、智能的,还有欧陆风情、北美庭廊的。从市场营销的角度来看“概念”是十分有效的,它作为与竞争者相区别的符号系统,在传播中具有高度的识别性和心理冲击力。但是,房地产界近年来竟提出了“卖房地产就是卖概念”的理论,开发商和“策划大师们”不再去寻找消费者的需求,而是热衷于概念炒作,以概念来制造“卖点”。不少房地产开发商一味地想制造轰动效应,大肆炒作,做足了表面功夫,但忽视了消费者实际需求。这实际上是营销策划失误所致。3.房地产营销策划的发展趋势(1)以人为本房地产开发企业面临的是要问题是使开发的房地产商品适应顾客的需要,从而促进商品房的销售,增加利润,加快资金周转。因此,房地产开发一定是首先强调以人为本的营销策划。企业的一切经营活动,都必须围绕消费者的愿望、需求和价值观念来展开,这是房地产营销的根本所在。(2)房地产营销是各种理念的复合理念是营销策划的灵魂,当代房地产营销策划的主导理念一般包括:a.人性理念。房地产营销首先讲求以人为本,中国自古的儒家仁爱思想和西方的人本主义思潮为房地产营销的人性理念提供了坚实的文化基础。b.生态理念。近代以来,地球环境污染加重,客观上要求房地产开发必须树立起可持续发展的生态理念,这不仅仅为目前的人类提供了更加适宜的生存空间,也为我们后代的发展铺平了道路。c.智能理念。人类科技水平的迅速发展使房地产开发逐渐从传统的砖瓦营造习惯转向各种新兴材料的应用,而在建筑的功能上也走向了多元化,提供给了人们更多的服务。d.投资理念。投资不动产越来越成为更多人选择的投资保值手段。(3)策略和手段是营销的生命楼盘最终需要通过市场的反应去实现自身的价值,由此,营销中采用的合理策略、手段则成了检验真理的试金石。通过各种营销策略,如产品策略、定价策略、促销策略、渠道策略等的组合,再依靠营销手段使其具体化,那么最终产生的结果也将是令人满意的。 (4)发展商由重视营销策划、重视概念打造到重视前期研究和产品定位多年以来,大多数房地产开发项目均把重点放到营销策划上,市场的热点也在营销策划上。营销策划在很大程度上已经被视为项目制胜的关键。项目前期市场研究和策划受到空前的重视。系统细致的市场研究导出的市场机会发掘、项目竞争优势分析、客户定位、产品定位、价格定位、开发策略、规划设计指导思想、经济测算、营销方案等等,均在项目前期细加研究,慎重决定。(5)开发周期逐步缩短,产品更新换代速度加快,项目针对性更强2003年之后,北京、上海、广州和深圳等大城市逐渐出现了三个浪潮:一是居住郊区化;二是住房消费平民化;三是产品更新换代速度加快。某些地区的房地产产品已经出现了“住房如时装,一年一个样”的状况。社会消费心理的不稳定以及发展商为突破市场重围而刻意采取的求新求变,使市场上的产品出现不断升级的现象。以上三个浪潮,在西方发达国家早已形成,反映出我国入世后房地产市场与国际接轨的事实。(6)大型住宅项目不断出现,开发主题更为明显,具有延续性出于面对竞争、将自己做强作大的需要,大型开发项目在各大城市不断涌现。在当前,大型项目或许并不等于一切,但从长远来看,大型项目几乎就意味着一切,其开发与营销具有其突出的特点。产品多元化、客户多元化、开发主题的连贯性、品牌经营的系统性,均是营销工作的新课题。(7)市场细分仍有可为,出现了更新换代产品和市场未被满足的产品无论多么成熟的市场,始终会有市场缺口和未被充分满足的市场机会。风靡南北的Townhouse和“第五代住宅”就是非常好的例子。目前我国城市的楼市尚处于起步阶段,市场的缺口和机会更多。因此国内的房地产企业面对国外同行的竞争时应树立一定的信心,要充分利用自己相对熟悉市场的优势,善于发掘,开发出高盈利的产品。二、研究方案及工作计划(含工作重点与难点及拟采用的途径)1.研究和解决的问题本课题的研究任务是对房地产项目进行营销策划。其主要工作流程包括:产品的调研,市场的调研,企划的定位,推广的策略及创意的构思,传播与媒介策略的分析,阶段性推广总体策略,阶段性广告与媒介宣传,阶段性促销活动的策略,阶段性公共关系的策略,定期广告效果跟踪和信息反馈,定期跟踪竞争对手的广告投放以及推广成本预算和费用监控。工作重难点首先在于目标客户的定位,如果目标定位准确,市场的反响将事半功倍,反之亦然。定位是应从客户对地域喜欢程度、楼盘档次选择程度、楼盘户型要求程度、小区环境满意程度,物业管理程度等予以考虑。目标客户定位,从楼盘营销的角度来看,是选择有针对性,有目的性、有意识地去锁定精准的客户群,但这是一件很难的事,也做不到一个非常明确的市场划分。其定位,对于楼盘的整个营销来说,显得相当重要。其次是楼盘产品的定位,说起来容易,做起来却很难,这完全是由于楼盘产品特殊性所决定。因为做楼盘不同于做一般商品,它存在着销售周期较长的问题。这就要求在楼盘开发过程中对产品本身的设计需有一定超前性,不会因为市场的变化是产品变得过时或滞销。同时还要做好营销策略,如果营销策略不成功,不能夺人眼球,那么产品的销售将是一个问题。2.研究手段包括SWOT分析(态势分析),STP理论(Segmenting、Targeting、Positioning,即市场细分、目标市场、市场定位),调查分析房地产市场的总体情况以及其竞争环境分析。项目定位通常在可行性研究阶段进行,一般客群需求调查,采用问卷结合座谈的形式。研究途径主要是先对项目的周边状况进行分析,包括项目的地址,周边的交通条件及设施配套情况,建设的自然条件等等。其次是要对房地产市场进行调查,进行项目分析,对产品实施定位,调查过程中需注意消费者潜在需求与实际需求的差别,避免调查结果产生太大的差距。可以通过调查分析类似项目来考虑现有项目这种方法,确保分析结果的准确性。最后在调查分析的基础上进行市场细分和目标市场的选择。3.工作计划1) 寻找项目及编写开题报告 0102周2) 确定项目及查阅文献 0304周3) 市场调研及分析 0507周4) 项目分析及产品定位 0809周5) 项目细分及目标市场选择 1011周6) 竞争环境分析 1213周7) 项目推广成本预算 1415周8) 准备答辩 1516周三、主要参考文献1张芳,陈利君.浅谈房地产营销策划的几个问题J.绍兴文理学院学报2002,22(2):17-192 朱兴凤.浅析房地产营销策划J.中国科技信息,2009,14(1):14-163 丁若玉.房地产营销策划的有效实施J.市场营销,2004,9(3):3-54 张建华.房地产营销策划浅谈J.房产市场,2004,8(5):6-95 张传勇.房地产营销亟待突围J.市场观察,2008,12(1):11-136 朱玉荣,王菊花.房地产的营销误区及实施全程营销J.营销顾问,2004,3(2):15-177 吴迅.对房地产营销策划的理性思考J.中国房地产,2002,7(5):9-118 杜书云.房地产营销的基石前营销J.中国房地产报,2002,12(4):20-219 潘彤.房地产营销策划的STP模式J.番禺职业技术学院学报,2005,3(3):2-410 武银燕.浅析房地产营销策划及策略J.中国有色建设,2008,1(2):14-1611 谭继存.房地产营销策划M.北京:中国城市出版社,2007 12 杨雪.房地产营销理论的发展及实践研究D.重庆大学,2006 13 李春.房地产营销策划研究D.中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007,(4)14 王馨.房地产营销策划的问题及对策D.南京农业大学,2008 15 刘自磊.对中国房地产发展及未来趋势的研究J.中国房地产,2003, 6(3):5-716 Philip Kotler ,Gary Armstrong 著,Principles of MarketingM.北京:机械工业出版社,2008,(9)17Connie Robbins Gentry 著,Real Estate Technology & SolutionsJ.Chain Store Age,2010,86(7):20-23附:外文原文Research on Chinese Real Estate Development and the Future TrendsZilei LiuMBA Center, Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and TechnologyShanghai 200093, ChinaLi Chen (Corresponding author)MBA Center, Business school, University of Shanghai for Science and TechnologyShanghai 200093, ChinaE-mail: i5_Received: June 15, 2011 Accepted: July 6, 2011 doi:10.5539/ass.v7n9p207AbstractAfter nearly 20 years development, Chinese real estate industry shows the evidence of increasing both in scale and price. But resent years, China citizens began to complain more about the high price of housing, and government also pays more attention to the real estate industry. This article first analyzes the Chinese real estate development in recent years, and then based on the life cycle theory, the paper discusses Chinese real estates stage in the life cycle as well as the problems in this stage, at the end of the paper, the future trends of Chinese real estate are predicted.Keywords: China, Real estate, Life cycle, Trend1. IntroductionReal estate industry includes the investment, development, operation, management, and service in the real estate and belong to the 3rd industry. Usually, real estate industry in China is looked as a basic, guiding, driving and risking industry. As a very fundamental industry, real estate industry plays a very important role not only in a countrys economic life but also in peoples daily life, thus attract many research interests. Kaklauskas (2011) gives comparative description of crisis management for real estate in developed countries, and makes general recommendations for improving crisis management efficiencies in these countries real estate sector, also tries to give multiple criteria analysis of crisis management components and selection of the most efficient life cycle version of crisis management in real estate. Wang (2011) points out that Chinas major cities have experienced significant real estate price increase which has been fueled by the sustained growth of the economic fundamentals, the author examined the linkage between urban economic openness, the ratio of trade volume as a percentage of GDP, and urban real estate prices basing on the quality of life theory as well as BalassaSamuelson (BS) effects. Liow and Webb (2009) investigate the presence of common factors in the securitized real estate markets of the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), Hong Kong (HK), and Singapore (SG). The authors found that the degree of linkage across the four securitized real estate markets is much weaker than the strong linkages present across the four economies. These studies show only a fraction of the research in real estate field. Aizenman and Jinjarak (2011) studies the association between current account and real estate valuation across countries, and they found find a robust and strong positive association between current account deficits and the appreciation of the real estate prices/(GDP deflator).And when it comes to China, due to its fast and amazing developing, it seems people are more interested in how it will develop in the future: China real estate began to rise in the 1980s, and since the market-oriented housing reform in 1998, urban real estate prices in China have risen quite rapidly in general. Koetter and Poghosyan (2010) discussed that real estate prices can deviate from their fundamental value due to rigid supply, heterogeneity in quality, and various market imperfections, which have two contrasting effects on bank stability. Their research found that house price deviations contribute to bank instability. This finding corroborates the importance of deviations from the fundamental value of real estate, rather than just price levels or changes alone, when assessing bank stability.Under the Chinas active fiscal policy, the fixed asset investment grows rapidly and the ratio of real estate investment in GDP increased gradually. Accompany with the quick development, the scale and price of real estate in China also experienced rapidly grow. In order to cool down the whole market and keep the price in a reasonable increase rate, the Chinese government issued a series of policies in 2010. Under this macro environment, the development of Chinas real estate industry and its future trends analysis is not only concerned by consumers and government, but also be concerned by many scholars and real estate business company. This paper will first describes the resent status of Chinese real estate, and then based on the life-cycle theory and China static to give a prediction of the future trends.2. Todays Chinese real estate development statusAccording to the data published by China National Bureau of Statistics, all of the indicators of Chinas real estate in 2010 show increase. In 2010, the Chinese national real estate development investment is 4.8267 trillion RMB, increased 33.2% over 2009, among which, the commercial residential investment is 3.4038 trillion RMB and this number increased 32.9% over 2009. At the same time, the proportion of total investment in real estate development is 70.5%. In 2010, the business construction area is 4.055 billion M2, increased 26.6% over 2009, and new construction area is 1.638 billion M2, which also increased 40.7% over 2009. Completed space of houses is 760 million M2, increased 4.5% over 2009, among which, the residential area is 612 million M2, increased 2.7%, over 2009.Table 1 shows the sales of Chinas real estate in 2010, and Figure 1 shows the real estate climate index from January 2009 to December 2010.The investment in affordable housing in 2010 is around 840 billion RMB and the growth rate of investment in real estate development was driven by about 5%. In 2011, 10 million new affordable housing units construction are under planning and 60% is expected to be completed by the end of 2011. If calculation of the average 60 square meters for each affordable house, the new affordable housing will be completed in an area of approximately 3.6 billion square meters. Thus its estimated that about 1.3 trillion RMB affordable housing will be completed in 2011, which will boost real estate development investment increased by about 10%, and boosting China GDP growth by 1%.3. Chinese real estate life-cycle position and the main problemsThe life cycle can be used to observe the behavior of many concepts in business; it is best applied to products and industries. Industry Lifecycle is a concept relating to the different stages an industry will go through, from the first product entry to its eventual decline. There are typically four stages in the industry lifecycle (figure 2).And the first stage can also be divided into early stage and innovation stage. The stages are defined as:(1) Early Stages Phase-alternative product design and positioning, establishing the range and boundaries of the industry itself.(2) Innovation Phase - Product innovation declines, process innovation begins and a dominant design will arrive.(3) Growth (Cost or Shakeout) Phase - Companies settle on the dominant design; economies of scale are achieved, forcing smaller players to be acquired or exit altogether. Barriers to entry become very high, as large-scale consolidation occurs.(4) Maturity Phase - Growth is no longer the main focus, market share and cash flow become the primary goals of the companies left in the space.(5) Decline Phase Revenues declining; the industry as a whole may be supplanted by a new one.Now, the Chinese real estate is experiencing the development from begin phase to the growth phase, due to the following reasons:(1). The Chinese citizens are consuming the real estate product in growing numbers;(2). More and more real estate companies enter into the market, race to offer their own products and gain a share of a growing market.(3). Total sales and profits continue to grow in the Chinese real estate industry. Though it looks very promising, but there are still some problems exist in China real estate industry in this development stage, we analysis and include these problems as the following 4 main parts:Continues expanding of the real estate investment. Real estate investment proportion in the total social fixed assets investment increased year by year. In 1999, the real estate investment amounted is around 401.017 billion RMB, and the number reached 4.8267 trillion RMB by 2010, with an average growth of 400 billion RMB per year. At the same time, the ratio of real estate development investment in GDP also increased year by year.Rapid growth in developing size. The China national real estate construction area in 2010 reach to 4.055 billion square meters, compare with the 568.58 million square meters in 1999, it increased nearly 40 million square meters, an average increase of 300 million square meters per year. And the scale of real estate development also expand gradually, the indicators of real estate development growth is more than 10%, and the highest rate close to 30%.Regional differences in market size and growth rate, both in completed construction area and under construction area, the east of China has a large proportion, while the central of China has leading position in the growth rate (except sales). At the same time, there are regional differences in the level of urban residents living.Continuous high price. Recently, the Chinese real estate market shows a three high” phenomena: High prices, high enthusiasm of residents purchase and high disposable income. In China , the price of live house in 2004 was 2,714 RMB / square meter, but in 2010, the price climbed to 8363 RMB / square meter, the high prices of live house caused many concerns for both residents and government.4. Trends and CountermeasuresAfter nearly 20 years development, Chinese real estate has made great achievements, look back this 20 years development, we can find the following characters:l l China real estate industry is gradually moving toward market-oriented.l l The real estate and capital markets are linked closer.l l China real estate moves into a rapid developing and rapid growth period.l l Chinas Real Estates policy is under gradually improving.With Chinas accession to WTO, Chinas real estate market will follow the international practice and open to other WTO member countries according to the multilateral negotiations of the commitments. Chinas real estate market will be further developed, and the trends are mainly in the following areas:With the accelerated urbanization process and urban population increases, a large number of house renovation and real estate secondary market, the housing market still has more room for development.Given the urban population will have more 10 square per person, it will cause to nearly 40 million square meters demanding. Coupled with the accelerated process of urbanization, which will increase the demand for housing (about 100 million square meters per year), thus in the next 10 years, China will has a sustained development in housing construction.According to some agencies survey, the satisfaction rate of China residents in housing is under 20%, about 48% of the residents are willing
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