开放经济的宏观经济学：基本概念.ppt

2019/7/19,1,11 THE MACROECONOMICS OF OPEN ECONOMIES,31,Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts 开放经济的宏观经济学：基本概念,2019/7/19,3,Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts开放经济的宏观经济学：基本概念,Open and Closed Economies A closed economy is one that does not interact with other economies in the world. 封闭经济是一个不与其它经济相互交易的经济 There are no exports, no imports, and no capital flows.没有出口，没有进口，也没有资本流动 An open economy is one that interacts freely with other economies around the world. 开放经济是一个与世界其他经济自由交易的经济,2019/7/19,4,Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts开放经济的宏观经济学：基本概念,An Open Economy An open economy interacts with other countries in two ways. 一个开放经济以两种方式和其他经济相互交易 It buys and sells goods and services in world product markets.它在世界产品市场上购买并出售物品与劳务 It buys and sells capital assets in world financial markets. 它在世界金融市场上购买并出售股票和债券这类资本资产,2019/7/19,5,THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS AND CAPITAL物品与资本的国际流动,An Open Economy The United States is a very large and open economyit imports and exports huge quantities of goods and services. Over the past four decades, international trade and finance have become increasingly important.,2019/7/19,6,The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports物品的流动：出口、进口以及净出口,Exports are goods and services that are produced domestically and sold abroad. 出口是在国内生产而在国外销售的物品与劳务 Imports are goods and services that are produced abroad and sold domestically. 进口是在国外生产而在国内销售的物品与劳务,2019/7/19,7,The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports物品的流动：出口、进口以及净出口,Net exports (NX) are the value of a nations exports minus the value of its imports. 进出口是该国的出口值与进口值的差额 Net exports are also called the trade balance. 进出口又称为贸易余额,2019/7/19,8,The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports物品的流动：出口、进口以及净出口,A trade deficit is a situation in which net exports (NX) are negative.贸易赤字是净出口为负 Imports Exports A trade surplus is a situation in which net exports (NX) are positive.贸易盈余是净出口为正 Exports Imports Balanced trade refers to when net exports are zeroexports and imports are exactly equal. 贸易平衡是指净出口为零，即它的出口和进口完全相等,2019/7/19,9,The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports物品的流动：出口、进口以及净出口,Factors That Affect Net Exports 影响净出口的因素 The tastes of consumers for domestic and foreign goods.消费者对国内与国外物品的嗜好 The prices of goods at home and abroad. 国内与国外物品的价格 The exchange rates at which people can use domestic currency to buy foreign currencies. 人们可以用国内通货购买国外通货的汇率,2019/7/19,10,The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports物品的流动：出口、进口以及净出口,Factors That Affect Net Exports 影响净出口的因素 The incomes of consumers at home and abroad.国内与国外消费者的收入 The costs of transporting goods from country to country.从一国向另一国运送物品的成本 The policies of the government toward international trade.政府对国际贸易的政策,2019/7/19,11,Figure 1 The Internationalization of the U.S. Economy,Percent,of GDP,0,5,10,15,1950,1955,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1990,1985,2000,1995,Exports,Imports,Copyright 2004 South-Western,2019/7/19,12,The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital Outflow金融资源的流动：资本净流出,Net capital outflow refers to the purchase of foreign assets by domestic residents minus the purchase of domestic assets by foreigners. 资本净流出指本国居民购买的外国资产与外国人购买的国内资产之间的差额 A U.S. resident buys stock in the Toyota corporation and a Mexican buys stock in the Ford Motor corporation.一个美国公民购买了丰田公司的股票和一个墨西哥人购买了福特汽车公司股票,2019/7/19,13,The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital Outflow金融资源的流动：资本净流出,When a U.S. resident buys stock in Telmex, the Mexican phone company, the purchase raises U.S. net capital outflow.当一个美国居民购买了一家墨西哥电话公司Telmex的股票时，这种购买增加了美国的资本净流出 When a Japanese residents buys a bond issued by the U.S. government, the purchase reduces the U.S. net capital outflow. 当一个日本居民购买了美国政府发行的债券时，这种购买减少了美国的资本净流出,2019/7/19,14,The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital Outflow金融资源的流动：资本净流出,Variables that Influence Net Capital Outflow 影响资本净流出的因素 The real interest rates being paid on foreign assets.国外资产得到的真实利率 The real interest rates being paid on domestic assets.国内资产得到的真实利率 The perceived economic and political risks of holding assets abroad. 持有国外资产可以觉察到的经济与政治风险 The government policies that affect foreign ownership of domestic assets. 影响国外拥有国内资产的政府政策,2019/7/19,15,The Equality of Net Exports and Net Capital Outflow净出口和资本净流出相等,Net exports (NX) and net capital outflow (NCO) are closely linked. 净出口和资本净流出密切相关 For an economy as a whole, NX and NCO must balance each other so that: NCO = NX 对整个经济而言，资本净流出总等于净出口 This holds true because every transaction that affects one side must also affect the other side by the same amount. 这个等式之所以成立，是因为影响这个等式一方的每一次交易也必然完全等量地影响另一方,2019/7/19,16,总结,当一国有贸易盈余时（NX0），它出售给外国人的物品与劳务多于外国人购买的。从国外的物品与劳务的净销售中得到的外国通货必定用于购买外国资产。因此，资本从一国流出（NCO0） 当一国有贸易赤字时（NX0），它向外国人购买的物品与劳务多于向外国人出售的。在世界市场上它如何为这些物品与劳务的净购买筹资呢？它必定在国外出售资产。因此，资本流入国内（NCO0）,2019/7/19,17,Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the International Flows 储蓄、投资及其与国际流动的关系,Net exports is a component of GDP: Y = C + I + G + NX National saving is the income of the nation that is left after paying for current consumption and government purchases: Y - C - G = I + NX 国民储蓄是在支付了现期消费和政府购买之后剩下的国民收入：Y - C - G = I + NX,2019/7/19,18,Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the International Flows 储蓄、投资及其与国际流动的关系,National saving (S) equals Y - C - G so: S = I + NX or,2019/7/19,19,Figure 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment,Percent,of GDP,20,18,16,14,12,10,1960,1965,1995,1990,1985,1980,1975,1970,(a) National Saving and Domestic Investment (as a percentage of GDP),2000,Copyright 2004 South-Western,2019/7/19,20,Figure 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment,Percent,of GDP,4,4,3,2,1,0,1,2,3,(b) Net Capital Outflow (as a percentage of GDP),1960,1965,1995,1990,1985,1980,1975,1970,2000,Copyright 2004 South-Western,2019/7/19,21,THE PRICES FOR INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: REAL AND NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES 国际交易的价格：真实汇率与名义汇率,International transactions are influenced by international prices.国际交易受国际价格的影响 The two most important international prices are the nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate. 两种最重要的国际价格：名义汇率和真实汇率,2019/7/19,22,Nominal Exchange Rates 名义汇率,The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another. 名义汇率：一个人可以用一国通货交换另一国通货的比率,2019/7/19,23,Nominal Exchange Rates 名义汇率,The nominal exchange rate is expressed in two ways:名义汇率可以用两种方法来表示 In units of foreign currency per one U.S. dollar. 每单位美元能够购买到的外国通货量 And in units of U.S. dollars per one unit of the foreign currency. 每单位外国通货能够购买到的美元数量,2019/7/19,24,Nominal Exchange Rates 名义汇率,Assume the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar is 80 yen to one dollar.如果汇率是1美元兑80日元 One U.S. dollar trades for 80 yen. 1美元兑80日元 One yen trades for 1/80 (= 0.0125) of a dollar. 1日元兑0.0125美元 直接标价法：是以一单位的外国货币为标准来计算应付出多少单位本国货币，包括中国在内的世界上绝大多数国家目前都采用直接标价法。在国际外汇市场上，日元、瑞士法郎、加元等均为直接标价法。 间接标价法：在国际外汇市场上，欧元、英镑、澳元等均为间接标价法。,2019/7/19,25,Nominal Exchange Rates 名义汇率,Appreciation refers to an increase in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy.升值：按所能购买到的外国通货衡量的一国通货的价值增加 Depreciation refers to a decrease in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy.贬值：按所能购买到的外国通货衡量的一国通货的价值减少,2019/7/19,26,Nominal Exchange Rates 名义汇率,If a dollar buys more foreign currency, there is an appreciation of the dollar. 如果1美元能买到更多的外国通货，那么这种变动称为美元升值 If it buys less there is a depreciation of the dollar.如果1美元能买到的外国通货减少，那么这种变动称为美元贬值,2019/7/19,27,Real Exchange Rates 真实汇率,The real exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the goods and services of one country for the goods and services of another.真实汇率：一个人可以用一国物品与劳务交换另一国物品与劳务的比率,2019/7/19,28,Real Exchange Rates真实汇率,The real exchange rate compares the prices of domestic goods and foreign goods in the domestic economy.真实汇率比较的是国内商品与国外商品的价格 If a case of German beer is twice as expensive as American beer, the real exchange rate is 1/2 case of German beer per case of American beer.,2019/7/19,29,Real Exchange Rates真实汇率,The real exchange rate depends on the nominal exchange rate and the prices of goods in the two countries measured in local currencies.真实汇率取决于名义汇率和用本国通货衡量的两国物品的价格,2019/7/19,30,Real Exchange Rates真实汇率,The real exchange rate is a key determinant of how much a country exports and imports.,2019/7/19,31,Real Exchange Rates真实汇率,A depreciation (fall) in the U.S. real exchange rate means that U.S. goods have become cheaper relative to foreign goods. 美国真实汇率下降意味着相对于外国物品而言，美国物品变得便宜了 This encourages consumers both at home and abroad to buy more U.S. goods and fewer goods from other countries. 这种变化鼓励国内与国外消费者更多地购买美国物品而更少地购买外国物品,2019/7/19,32,Real Exchange Rates真实汇率,As a result, U.S. exports rise, and U.S. imports fall, and both of these changes raise U.S. net exports.结果美国出口增加而进口减少，这两种变化都增加了美国的净出口 Conversely, an appreciation in the U.S. real exchange rate means that U.S. goods have become more expensive compared to foreign goods, so U.S. net exports fall.相反，美国真实汇率上升意味着相对于外国物品而言，美国物品变得昂贵了，因此，美国的净出口减少了,2019/7/19,33,A FIRST THEORY OF EXCHANGE-RATE DETERMINATION: PURCHASING-POWER PARITY 第一种汇率决定理论：购买力平价,The purchasing-power parity theory is the simplest and most widely accepted theory explaining the variation of currency exchange rates.购买力平价理论是一种最简单的、用于解释汇率变化的广为接受的理论,2019/7/19,34,The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity购买力平价理论的基本逻辑,According to the purchasing-power parity theory, a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries.根据购买力平价理论，任何一单位通货应该能在所有国家买到等量的物品,2019/7/19,35,The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity购买力平价理论的基本逻辑,The theory of purchasing-power parity is based on a principle called the law of one price. 购买力平价理论是根据一价定律的原理提出 According to the law of one price, a good must sell for the same price in all locations. 根据一价定律，一种物品在所有地方都应该按同样的价格出售,2019/7/19,36,The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity购买力平价理论的基本逻辑,If the law of one price were not true, unexploited profit opportunities would exist. 如果一价定律不成立，未被利用的可以获取的利润机会就会存在 The process of taking advantage of differences in prices in different markets is called arbitrage. 利用不同市场上价格差的过程称为套利,2019/7/19,37,The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity购买力平价理论的基本逻辑,If arbitrage occurs, eventually prices that differed in two markets would necessarily converge. 如果套利发生，最终两个市场有差异的价格将必然相同 According to the theory of purchasing-power parity, a currency must have the same purchasing power in all countries and exchange rates move to ensure that.根据购买力平价理论，一种通货必然在所有国家都具有相同的购买力，汇率的变化会确保它的出现,2019/7/19,38,Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity购买力平价理论的含义,If the purchasing power of the dollar is always the same at home and abroad, then the exchange rate cannot change. 如果1美元的购买力在国内和国外总是相同的，那么，真实汇率-国内物品和国外物品的相对价格-就不会变 1/P=e/P* 1=eP/P* The nominal exchange rate between the currencies of two countries must reflect the different price levels in those countries. 名义汇率必然反映这两个国家的物价水平,2019/7/19,39,Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity购买力平价理论的含义,When the central bank prints large quantities of money, the money loses value both in terms of the goods and services it can buy and in terms of the amount of other currencies it can buy. 当中央银行印发了大量货币时，无论根据它能买到的物品与劳务，还是根据它能买到的其他通货，这种货币的价值都减少了,2019/7/19,40,Figure 3 Money, Prices, and the Nominal Exchange Rate During the German Hyperinflation,10,000,000,000,1,000,000,000,000,000,100,000,1,.00001,.0000000001,1921,1922,1923,1924,Exchange rate,Money supply,Price level,1925,Indexes,(Jan. 1921,5,100),Copyright 2004 South-Western,2019/7/19,41,Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity购买力平价理论的含义,Many goods are not easily traded or shipped from one country to another. 许多物品是不容易进行贸易的 Tradable goods are not always perfect substitutes when they are produced in different countries.即使是可贸易品，当它们在不同国家生产时，也并不总能完全替代,2019/7/19,42,问题与应用 1,a. When an American art professor spends the summer touring museums in Europe, he spends money buying foreign goods and services, so U.S. exports are unchanged, imports increase, and net exports decrease. b. When students in Paris flock to see the latest movie from Hollywood, foreigners are buying a U.S. good, so U.S. exports rise, imports are unchanged, and net exports increase. c. When your uncle buys a new Volvo, an American