房地产行业摘要：估值仍然合理，股价回落带来重新介入的良机-130206.ppt

,2013 年 2 月 6 日 中国：房地产 证券研究报告 估值仍然合理；股价回落带来重新介入的良机 (摘要) 市场对调控政策的担忧导致股价回落，重新介入的良机逐渐显现,市场对调控升级的猜测使得地产股继前几个月强劲表现后自上周起加大波动。虽 然短期内股价仍将频繁震荡，但我们认为调控升级对基本面影响有限，行业估值 也仍然合理 （买入评级的股票估值具有吸引力），所以股价进一步回落提供买入,两种情景假设下的盈利敏感性 underlying profit 2013e 2014e,良机。,offshore listed cogo,test 1 test 2 test 1 test 2 -1% -6% -1% -13%,yanlord,-1%,-4%,-4%,-18%,政府不太可能出台大规模调控政策；定点调控对基本面影响有限 在我们看来，调控升级应仅限于一线和少数二线城市，因为这些市场的房价在供应 有限、需求稳定的情况下有较大的上涨压力。我们认为中国大部分地区没有调控升 级的必要，因为历史及目前的供应增速已经远超过了短期需求增速，房价不太可能 持续快速上涨。但基于政策的不确定性，我们还是构建了两种销量情景假设来分析 调控升级对于我们所覆盖公司盈利和净资产价值的影响：(1) 测试 1：只有一线城 市的销量回落至 2011 年的谷底水平；(2) 测试 2：所有城市的销量均回落至 2011 年的谷底水平。在测试 2 这一相对较严厉的情景假设下，2013 年净资产价值中值 和 2013/14 年核心每股盈利分别下降 5%和 7%/15%。在测试 1 下，开发商所受影,shimao greentown ehouse longfor evergrande cg franshion coli kwg r&f crl agile sunac shui on land poly property (h),-1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -2% -3% -3% -4% -4% -4% -5% -5% -5% -5%,-11% -5% -7% -4% -8% -16% -5% -7% -7% -10% -4% -8% -8% -10% -9%,-1% -2% -1% -3% -1% -2% -14% -4% -15% -7% -4% -10% -10% -9% -6%,-15% -11% -7% -15% -19% -20% -16% -10% -18% -17% -9% -18% -19% -13% -15%,响非常有限，分别为 1%和 4%/5%。此外，由于开发商财务状况明显好于一年,sino-ocean offshore median,-8% -3%,-11% -8%,-15% -20% -4% -15%,前，我们预计即便调控升级扩展到全国范围，我们覆盖范围公司的财务状况所受影,onshore listed,响也较为温和，大多数开发商在 13 年仍拥有资金盈余（未计入目前到 13 年底新 收购项目的可能）。 估值处于/低于周期中值；增速预测保守 我们认为，开发商良好的财务实力应是板块估值避免重演 2010-2011 期间大幅向 下的重要因素。此外在我们看来，当前估值仅计入了开发商财务状况和增长/回报,zhongnan risesun smc worldunion vanke cmp gemdale poly oct bcd,0% 0% -1% -1% -4% -4% -5% -6% -6% -7%,-1% -6% -6% -7% -6% -6% -7% -8% -8% -9%,0% 0% -1% -3% -5% -6% -7% -7% -7% -19%,-8% -18% -12% -15% -10% -10% -14% -11% -10% -21%,的温和复苏的预期。我们认为我们研究范围内的开发商将在本轮周期中继续扩大 其市场份额，因此未来增长表现有望好于预期。同时，我们还观察到，在房价增,onshore median -4% 资料来源：高华证券研究预测,-7%,-5%,-12%,长持续受到抑制的环境下，我们覆盖的开发商在过去三年中已逐渐缩小项目收购,和投资规模，以期加快资产周转并保持净资产回报率，这可能会带动销量超预期 增长。我们的首选股（位于强力买入名单）是万科 a、龙湖地产和绿城房产。风 险：政府调控政策之严超出预期从而引发房价普遍下跌。 *全文翻译将随后提供,相关研究 中国：开发商：涨势可能因政策风险加剧回调；建议择机吸纳， 2013年1月9日 中国：房地产：2013年 - 良性循环的开始；上调目标价；强力买 入万科a，2012年12月4日,王逸, cfa 执业证书编号: s1420510120004 +86(21)2401-8930 北京高华证券有限责任公司 李薇 执业证书编号: s1420510120012 +86(21)2401-8926 北京高华证券有限责任公司 杜茜 执业证书编号: s1420511100001 +86(10)6627-3147 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司,北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企 业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当 考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视 本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要 信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。 投资研究,2,4,5,7,9,10,2,2013 年 2 月 6 日,中国：房地产,table of contents supply outpaces demand in most cities; no new tightening needed our base-case assumptions factor in expectations of tightening sales in tier-1 cities: c. 30% in value, but only 19% in volumes volume sensitivity: limited impact on nav/earnings cash flow position strong enough to weather tightening impact valuation below or at mid-cycle; still upside to growth expectation the prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of february 4, 2013. the authors would like to thank olivia xiao for her contribution to this report. supply outpaces demand in most cities; no new tightening needed except in tier-1 cities, where we think property prices may continue their strong recovery driven by the supply and demand dynamics in these cities our analysis of supply in other hpr (home purchase restriction) cities, which have registered strong volume recovery in the past one year, suggests land supply has been maintained at above 2009-2010 average level in the past two years. this means that unless volume continues to grow from peak levels in these cities, property prices outside tier-1 cities and select tier-2 cities are unlikely to sustain a strong increase in coming years. in our view, with hpr limiting the longer-term buying potential from local residents still the key buyers in tier-2/3 cities (unlike in beijing/shanghai, half of the buying from non- local buyers) the likelihood of volumes surpass last peak volume levels in these cities is low. in addition, we expect the recovery in land sales to continue, driven by developers stronger balance sheets. this should support supply growth into 2014 and beyond and prevent rapid property price appreciation. in light of these dynamics, we think there is no need to bring in new tightening measures nationwide, but to confine them to tier-1 and maybe select tier-2 cities. exhibit 1: we see greater price appreciation pressure in the four tier-1 cities vs. the rest of top 100 cities.tier-1 cities price index vs. top 100 cities,4.0%,beijing,shanghai,shenzhen,guangzhou,top 100 cities,3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% source: soufun/cia, gao hua securities research. 高华证券投资研究,70,100,3,2013 年 2 月 6 日,中国：房地产 exhibit 2: .which is likely to continue given the tight supply outlook there in the coming 18 months estimated residential gfa supply in coming 1-1.5 years based on land sales in the past : tier-1 cities,(mn sqm),12mth rolling land gfa transacted (moving 1yr forward),12mth rolling land gfa transacted (moving 1.5yr forward),gs forecast,60 max 50 08-12 gfa sold range 40 2009-11 avg supply,30,min,20 10 0 note: 1) 2008-2012 gfa sold include social housing. 2) tier 1 cities are beijing, shanghai, shenzhen and guangzhou. source: soufun/cia, nbs/ceic, gao hua securities research estimates. exhibit 3: but we see sufficient supply in tier-2 cities estimated residential gfa supply in coming 1-1.5 years based on land sales in the past: tier-2 cities,(mn sqm),12mth rolling land gfa transacted (moving 1yr forward),300 250 200 150,max,12mth rolling land gfa transacted (moving 1.5yr forward),gs forecast,08-12 gfa sold range,2009-11 avg supply,min 50 0 note: tier 2 cities included in the analysis above are nanjing, xiamen, dalian, tianjin, chengdu, hangzhou, wuhan, xian, changsha and qingdao. source: soufun/cia, nbs/ceic, gao hua securities research estimates. 高华证券投资研究,4,2013 年 2 月 6 日,中国：房地产 exhibit 4: .as well as supply in tier-3 cities estimated residential gfa supply in coming 1-1.5 years based on past land sales: tier-3 cities,(mn sqm),12mth rolling land gfa transacted (moving 1yr forward),250 200 150,12mth rolling land gfa transacted (moving 1.5yr forward) max 08-12 gfa sold range,gs forecast 2009-11 avg supply,100 min 50 0 note: tier 3 cities included: urumqi, nanning, nanchang, hefei, hohhot, harbin, taiyuan, ningbo, kunming, shenyang, jinan, haikou, shijiazhuang, fuzhou, guiyang, zhengzhou, yinchuan, changchun and lanzhou. source: soufun/cia, nbs/ceic, gao hua securities research estimates our base-case assumptions factor in expectations of tightening our base-case price/volume assumption is listed below (for details, see 2013 outlook: start of a virtuous cycle; raising targets, vanke a to cl-b; dec. 4). we believe our price increase/volume assumptions are conservative, offer room for upside. even in the more difficult market of 2011, our coverage universe achieved 17% yoy increase in volume.,exhibit 5: we expect a 5-10% price increase in 1h13, then no growth till 2014, based on our expectation of possible govt intervention to control pace of price appreciation our base-case price assumption for our coverage,exhibit 6: we assume 7% yoy volume growth in 2013e vs. 32% in 2012 for our coverage universe our base-case volume assumption for our coverage universe,200 180,180,base-case,167,167,167,(mn sqm) 120 100,total gfa sold (lhs),total number of projects selling (rhs) +7%yoy +32%yoy 1,836,2000,160,162,80,+17%yoy,1,502,1500,150,151,1,206,140,138,60,1000,40,120 100,100,20,500,beginning- end-09 09,end-10,end-11,mid-12,end-12,mid-13e,end-13e,end-14e,0,2010,2011,2012,2013e,0,source: gao hua securities research estimates. 高华证券投资研究,source: company data, gao hua securities research estimates.,5,2013 年 2 月 6 日,中国：房地产,sales in tier-1 cities: c. 30% in value, but only 19% in volumes our off/onshore coverage universe 2013e presales exposure to tier-1 cities is on average 33%/30%, but their volume exposure is smaller at 19% as shown in exhibit 7-10.,exhibit 7: for offshore coverage on average, 33% of 2013e contract sales are contributed by tier 1 cities. 2013e contract sales exposure by city tiers for offshore coverage,exhibit 8: .but 19% in terms of 2013e gfa sold 2013e volume exposure by city tiers for offshore coverage,tier 1,tier 2,tier 3,tier 1,tier 2,tier 3,100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% source: gao hua securities research estimates. exhibit 9: for our onshore coverage an average 30% of 2013e contract sales are contributed by tier 1 cities 2013e contract sales exposure by city tiers for onshore coverage,100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% source: gao hua securities research estimates. exhibit 10: .but 19% in terms of 2013e gfa sold 2013e volume exposure by city tiers for onshore coverage,tier 1,tier 2,tier 3,tier 1,tier 2,tier 3,100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% source: gao hua securities research estimates.,100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% source: gao hua securities research estimates.,low contagion risk from tier-1 tightening with prices likely just flat, not down, we believe the impact from tightening in tier-1 cities (i.e. volume correction) will not spill over much to other cities. historical evidence indicates that the spillover effect of volume contraction in tier-1 cities to their regional hinterland is very limited (exhibit 11). 高华证券投资研究,6,2013 年 2 月 6 日,中国：房地产,exhibit 11: little correlation between volume changes in the tier-1 cities and their respective regions. we see relatively less volume volatility in bohai rim/prd vs. beijing/guangzhou & shenzhen during past cycles % yoy volume change comparison during 2000-2012,100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%,beijing,rest of bohai rim,100% 80%,shanghai,rest ofyrd,100% 80%,guangzhou & shenzhen,rest of prd,60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% -20%,-40% -60%,-20% -40%,note: the rest of bohai rim refers to tianjin, hebei and shandong, the rest of yrd refers to jiangsu, zhejiang and anhui, and the rest of prd refers to guangdong, fujian and hainan. source: ceic, gao hua securities research. 高华证券投资研究,50,0,7,2013 年 2 月 6 日 volume sensitivity: limited impact on nav/earnings volume sensitivity analysis (exhibit 13) test 1: 2013e volumes in the four tier-1 cities retreat to 2011 trough level. test 2: 2013e volume in all cities retreat to trough level.,中国：房地产,exhibit 12: 2011 was the trough in volumes for the four tier-1 cities since 2006 annual aggregate gfa sold in 4 tier-1 cities 2006-2012,exhibit 13: key assumptions under our two volume sensitivity scenarios,(mn sqm) 60,aggregate volume in tier-1 cities,city,2013 volume assumptions test 1 test 2,volume back to 2011 40,30,trough volume level,.implied volume change from our current estimate,20,only tier-1 cities,all cities,beijing,-37%,-37%,10,shanghai guangzhou,-22% -30%,-22% -30%,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,note: we use gfa sold excluding affordable housing in those 4 tier-1 cities.,shenzhen other cities,-26% 0%,-26% -20%,note: other cities refer to ceic top 40 cities and exclude beijing, shanghai, shenzhen and guangzhou.,source: soufun/cia, gao hua securities research.,source: soufun/cia, ceic, gao hua securities research estimates.,our sensitivity analysis shows that in our test 1 scenario, the impact is as follows: offshore developers: end 2013e nav down 1% and underlying profit down 3%/4% in 2013e/14e onshore developer: end 2013e nav down 2% and underlying profit down 4%/5% in 2013e/14e ever under our test 2 scenario, the impact on our end-2013e nav and 2013e-2014e underlying profit estimates will be still modest at: offshore developers: end 2013e nav down 5% and underlying profit down 8%/15% in 2013e/14e onshore developer: end 2013e nav down 5% and underlying profit down 7%/12% in 2013e/14e 高华证券投资研究,8,2013 年 2 月 6 日 exhibit 14: our coverage developers nav, presales, earnings sensitivity on our two volume scenarios,中国：房地产,nav (rcy),contract sales (rmb bn),underlying profit (rcy mn),end-2013e,2013e,2014e,2013e,2014e,offshore agile cogo coli crl cg evergrande franshion greentown r&f kwg longfor poly property (h) shimao shui on land sino-ocean sunac yanlord ehouse,base-case 19.2 12.5 27.5 29.5 6.6 9.3 4.4 24.9 20.4 10.2 26.3 12.5 25.4 7.8 11.3 12.1 2.4 n.a.,test 1 -1% -1% -1% -1% 0% 0% -2% -1% -2% -3% -1% -2% -1% -1% -2% -2% -2% n.a.,test 2 -5% -4% -3% -3% -7% -8% -4% -5% -5% -6% -3% -6% -5% -3% -5% -6% -4% n.a.,base-case 32 14 99 57 47 94 17 45 32 14 50 23 48 8 34 44 13 140,test 1 -5% -6% -6% -6% -2% -1% -22% -2% -12% -16% -5% -7% -1% -9% -11% -13% -11% -3%,test 2 -21% -23% -23% -22% -20% -20% -23% -19% -23% -25% -22% -21% -20% -21% -24% -24% -25% -20%,base-case 33 15 94 57 45 95 17 49 36 15 47 24 45 9 35 46 13 144,test 1 -4% -7% -6% -8% -1% 0% -17% -3% -11% -14% -6% -5% -2% -7% -13% -9% -12% -3%,test 2 -21% -23% -22% -22% -20% -20% -19% -21% -23% -24% -22% -21% -20% -21% -25% -23% -25% -20%,base-case 5,052 2,675 14,706 8,684 7,705 9,025 2,452 5,441 4,085 2,132 6,519 2,372 5,405 1,298 2,695 3,324 1,070 41,test 1 -5% -1% -3% -4% -2% -1% -3% -1% -4% -4% -1% -5% -1% -5% -8% -5% -1% -1%,test 2 -8% -6% -7% -4% -16% -8% -5% -5% -10% -7% -4% -9% -11% -10% -11% -8% -4% -7%,base-case 5,545 3,003 15,919 10,907 8,008 10,180 2,616 5,149 4,002 2,273 7,864 2,750 5,728 1,385 2,604 4,251 1,136 55,test 1 -10% -1% -4% -4% -2% -1% -14% -2% -7% -15% -3% -6% -1% -9% -15% -10% -4% -1%,test 2 -18% -13% -10% -9% -20% -19% -16% -11% -17% -18% -15% -15% -15% -13% -20% -19% -18% -7%,median,-1%,-5%,-6%,-22%,-6%,-21%,-3%,-8%,-4%,-15%,onshore bcd cmp gemdale oct poly risesun smc vanke zhongnan worldunion,base-case 27.6 45.7 12.1 11.7 18.2 16.6 22.2 20.0 27.0 n.a.,test 1 -4% -3% -3% 0% -3% 0% 0% -2% 0% n.a.,test 2 -6% -5% -6% -1% -6% -4% -3% -5% -3% n.a.,base-case 20 37 34 19 107 19 11 170 11 251,test 1 -25% -15% -6% -15% -8% 0% -2% -10% 0% -4%,test 2 -32% -25% -22% -21% -22% -20% -20% -23% -20% -21%,base-case 23 39 36 19 107 20 12 172 12 295,test 1 -25% -15% -6% -14% -9% 0% -1% -8% 0% -4%,test 2 -31% -24% -22% -20% -23% -20% -20% -22% -20% -21%,base-case 2,377 4,294 3,611 4,330 10,374 2,493 1,426 16,315 1,650 250,test 1 -7% -4% -5% -6% -6% 0% -1% -4% 0% -1%,test 2 -9% -6% -7% -8% -8% -6% -6% -6% -1% -7%,base-case 2,803 5,479 4,221 4,874 12,774 2,909 1,588 19,903 2,189 312,test 1 -19% -6% -7% -7% -7% 0% -1% -5% 0% -3%,test 2 -21% -10% -14% -10% -11% -18% -12% -10% -8% -15%,median,-2%,-5%,-7%,-21%,-7%,-21%,-4%,-7%,-5%,-12%,note: 1) for ehouse, we use non-gaap net profit. 2) contract sales for ehouse and worldunion are referring to primary agency sales. source: gao hua securities research estimates. 高华证券投资研究,9,2013 年 2 月 6 日,中国：房地产,cash flow position strong enough to weather tightening impact under our base case, the median level net debt to equity ratio in 2012e and 2013e for our coverage universe is 58% and 38% respectively (without factoring in any new acquisitions from now and onwards). these levels are better than they were in 2011 (median level at 62%). in addition, all of them will be in funding surplus in 2013, whereas half had a funding gap in 2012. our sensitivity test shows that their financials (in terms of funding surplus/(gap) remain largely intact under scenario 1 and would be only moderately impacted in scenario 2 (exhibit 15). exhibit 15: our coverage developers funding gap and gearing sensitivity on our two volume scenarios,funding surplus/(gap) (rmb bn) 2013e,funding surplus/(gap) as % of total equity 2013e,net gearing 2013e,offshore agile cogo coli crl cg evergrande franshion greentown r&f kwg longfor poly property (h) shimao shui on land sino-ocean sunac yanlord ehouse median onshore bcd cmp gemdale oct poly (a) risesun smc vanke zhongnan worldunion median,base-case 14.7 3.5 42.9 27.8 24.0 19.6 8.6 8.4 10.1 5.2 20.9 3.5 13.2 1.4 5.1 9.4 2.8 0.6 9.0 base-case 11.8 17.2 17.6 6.8 13.9 2.6 2.8 69.8 2.9 0.7 9.3,test 1 13.1 2.7 36.7 24.2 23.3 18.6 4.8 7.5 6.2 2.9 18.3 1.8 12.5 0.7 1.3 3.8 1.4 0.6 5.5 test 1 6.9 11.7 15.6 3.9 5.7 2.6 2.7 53.5 2.9 0.7 4.8,test 2 7.8 0.3 19.9 15.1 14.6 0.5 4.7 (0.3) 2.6 1.7 9.9 (1.6) 3.6 (0.3) (3.2) (1.4) (0.4) 0.6 1.1 test 2 5.5 8.1 10.3 2.8 (10.1) (1.1) 0.6 30.6 0.7 0.7 1.8,base-case 46% 42% 54% 43% 57% 37% 29% 24% 35% 31% 54% 14% 28% 4% 12% 57% 9% 14% 33% base-case 71% 54% 47% 26% 23% 22% 17% 65% 29% 42% 36%,test 1 41% 32% 46% 38% 55% 35% 17% 22% 21% 17% 47% 7% 27% 2% 3% 23% 4% 14% 22% test 1 42% 37% 42% 15% 10% 22% 16% 50% 29% 42% 33%,test 2 25% 3% 25% 24% 35% 1% 16% -1% 9% 10% 26% -6% 8% -1% -7% -9% -1% 13% 8% test 2 33% 26% 28% 11% -17% -10% 3% 29% 7% 41% 18%,base-case 51% 6% 2% 27% 23% 53% 31% 49% 62% 62% 29% 86% 42% 80% 44% 62% 22% -14% 43% base-case 56% 14% 17% 74% 90% 41% 34% -23% 21% -37% 28%,test 1 57% 16% 10% 33% 25% 55% 44% 51% 76% 76% 36% 93% 44% 83% 54% 84% 26% -14% 47% test 1 86% 31% 23% 86% 105% 41% 35% -8% 21% -36% 33%,test 2 74% 45% 31% 47% 47% 90% 50% 74% 89% 84% 58% 107% 64% 86% 64% 106% 32% -13% 64% test 2 95% 43% 37% 91% 132% 75% 48% 13% 43% -35% 46%,source: gao hua securities research estimates. we compare our coverage universe historical total cash flow before financing (exhibit 16), with cash flow under our test 2 scenarios. we also add in the refinancing undertaken from 2h12 to 2013 ytd (although information on this is not fully available for all the names we cover). under this scenario, our coverage universes financial positions are still a lot better than they were during 2007-2008 and 2010-2011. we also note that in this sensitivity analysis, we have assumed no adjustment to capex from our base-case assumption. 高华证券投资研究,2013 年 2 月 6 日,中国：房地产 exhibit 16: our coverage developers total cash flow before financing under our volume sensitivity analysis total cash flow before financing,(rmb bn),total cash flow before financing,test 1,test 2,200 150 100 50 0,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,1h 2012,2012e,2013e,-50 we add offshore,-100 -150,coverage developers end-1h12 to ytd refinancing already made rmb 76bn to total cash flow before,financing under test 2 -200 source: company data, gao hua securities r