物流战略方案外文翻译.doc

附件1：外文资料翻译译文全球物流战略方案:前方为欧洲吗?文摘介绍当前全球危机和其他社会经济和政治事件突出需要一种更好了解未来(中等的/长期)的发展在运输和物流系统和网络世界各地背景下的可持续发展。出乎意料的是,他们,尽管运输和物流是相当相关部门在全球增长和贸易、文学对未来的情况的物流系统,开发潜在代理人的变化和预测新趋势的全球模式中/长期的物流,原来是相当有限的。而纯粹的定量预测的物流参数和变量都很容易找到从各种各样的来源,我们发现吗研究用定性和战略的途径建设未来的情况是大多数发达的领域除了物流和运输(如制造)。因此需要解决这一问题的scenariobuilding全球物流领域的通过一个有效率战略的方法。虽然一些研究最相关的被lapide的麻省理工学院sc2020项目:供应链期货)迄今为止采用了它的战略规划方法(spa)提供这样的方法。方法本文试图填补这一差距采用基于quali-quantitative方法论水疗提供的许多中期场景的宏观领域的全球物流和评估欧洲的影响区域。综合文献资料后,一个初步网格变化的主要驱动力,推导了焦点小组提出了分析。这些组代表供给和需求方面都在全球物流方面的工作。结果以一种半结构化分析在那里有好些采访格式的战略的情建立了全球物流-每个场景中定义的条件相结合的战略的司机。特别是,结果显示个特定的模式,对宏观层次-对称的全球物流模型(sglm)-将有可能获胜从全世界范围来看,这两个基本sub-components(本地/全球)将起到决定性的作用。影响然后sglm的战略评估问候欧洲物流系统。结论在结论中,欧洲有可能面临一个加强既是其物流和工业的能力虽然在不同的发展脚步就浮出水面经济体在一个环境,在北非和东部欧洲市场将在productionlogistics中发挥基础性作用平台。关键词 :全球物流研究、 物流网络、scenario-building、网络设计全球物流战略方案的一些建议在这部分中,我们首先讨论一些初步的成果修正了一些分,从分析出来的专业范围到目前为止,通过司机进行文学、聚焦小组和面试。这样的初步结果然后有用和里程碑有效结合司机为了设计的情况。作为我们将会看到,我们最终macroscenario指定的一个普遍全球物流的两sub-scenario内组件可能发挥了作用。记住每一情况下,一般来说,是一个连贯的图片可能状态的世界。此外back-to-history的空壳公司的情况下,一些物流公司有效利用温泉。例如,ups使用类似的技术来描述场景到201746。从分析30 - 40因素、ups减少一对夫妇的维度。四个可能的情况最后导出了可管理性和相关性的基础上该公司。很明显,在我们的研究中,我们不要采取company-based未来物流的视觉,但那句话是很重要的,看看怎么样,在快结束的时候,即使最初的司机数目认为是相当高的,最后的场景最终只是一个一些。初步结果表明我们的战略资源的费用-最重要的是能源ones-will发挥的决定因素在re-designing作用的全球物流网络,领先它们朝着更有效率和更短。同时,专业化将是一个很大的要求和生产物流链,以及对效率的强大压力。此外,它会受到强烈必要的公司和机构是对齐的国际标准。ofworld人口增长将会是别人的决定因素司机。它将意味着,一方面,消耗的增加水平,另一方面,一个越来越大的压力资源利用从而培养一个趋势所有部门的效率物流链。当前的经济和金融危机肯定会决定减少全球的流动情况将持续相当一段时间,注意力更加集中的物流市场。然而,不构成一个经济结构的变化。创新过程扩散模型将采取一个全球性的问题规模,同时系统的作用将是非常重要的只要将竞争力提到先进的创新物流系统管理和信息。另外,作为全球经济增长的传播,要求规则来讲,永续发展,绿色物流和人情人权问题将变得越来越重要。总的来说,scenario-building过程(例如,结合司机)强调以下普遍宏观的力量确定未来物流网络模式:l 物流网络的缩短(战略重新设计；l 一个强大的压力对效率、专业化、可持续发展；l 美国的制度,围绕巴西、墨西哥和美国,有相关未来所扮演的角色；l 欧盟体系,又一个有关一个首先去的移民流动的程度将会被看作是一个基本的生产和消费驱动34,将面临重大挑战,管理动态移民的流动。因为它能紧抓住这样的作为一个经济驱动的机会,无论是工业未来,一个重要的角色(消费市场的趋势对人口老龄化的和消费停滞的状态因此可以预见概念)在一个吗扩大欧盟地区。 结论 1、全球空间物流:一些新见解 总结的主要结果,我们会说,从非对称的全局模式消失的空间物流、制造、一个宏观表征用更对称空间分布的生产消费平台可以被看作是最有可能macro-scenario - sglm:对称全球物流模型。一般来说，全球流入会逐步增加在未来的日子里，因为它来自司机analysis.21sub-scenarios就可以建造的方式有关这样的扩散模型的关系发展的主流部队或宏观驱动。l 当地的一个场景:生产就在附近消费;l 和一个全球性的情景:生产不会必然靠近消费我们认为,这两个场景组件将最终确定一个普遍的方案(最可能)使得系统,以及可能的发展高程度的特化(或者,我们应该说,超级在特定的工业和专业化物流行业,这就可能成为全球领导(取决于市场客户服务的约束条件。这两个场景组件应该再被视为互补,至今我们会有一个普遍可能多模式(局部)全球化趋势和一些可能在特定的行业全球宏观空间logistics-sglm 和它的两个可能的物流动态和特征(一个更容易发生比其他)表示出一个主要的结果我们研究、与以往的研究相比。它很明确,没有反映了共同愿景的无尽的全球化趋势在制造和物流活动以来,比如,它支持通常缩短而不是全球物流链的长度,以及(宏观)制造和物流活动的区域化而不是全球化。相反的,12,37下划线全球生产网络的特点(gpns)越来越分散在全球水平。区域发展,然而,的确是考虑在全球网络嵌入9。同时,它突出gpns如何变得越来越依赖全球的销售网络而一个全球化的进一步扩大被看见在发展的全球物流服务商。现在公认,全球化背后的条件设置支持长途运输链将会改变未来。然而,仅仅是把重点能源价格的作用,因为他们将会决定一个模态转移向更效率的运输方式。2、欧洲物流竞争:一些策略影响很多明显的战略影响欧洲物流源自上述情景分析与发展sglm的。有什么具体的影响sglm吗在欧洲吗?什么将是主要的物流平台(采购,生产、销售)在欧洲和动力学交通流?首先,缩短物流链和相关的战略重新定位中的物流和生产平台随着全球竞争的增加具体行业将会导致加固欧洲的作为生产/工业世界地区。两个变量在这里应该突出:首先,欧洲已经有了吗有关的角色(以绝对值衡量)为全球市场;其次,在欧洲经济增长将低于其它新兴经济体。更确切地说,当地的场景组件描述战略趋势重新定位中的生产platforms-as和物流的人在欧盟区域功能三个方面欧盟物流相关和欧盟的决赛市场。根据结构趋势已在进行中,最有吸引力的地区未来的生产和物流将这些北非和东欧,23吗有关end-customerswestern欧洲市场。许多全球物流的球员(特别是,积分器和航运公司)已经experiencing24有关重新定位中的物流平台过程中向那些地区。 附件2：外文原文（复印件）abstract introduction the current global crisis and other socio-economic and political events highlight the need for a better understanding of future (medium/long term) developments in transport and logistics systems and networks worldwide in a context of sustainability. quite surprisingly, although transport and logistics are rather relevant sectors in global growth and trade, literature on future scenarios of logistics systems, identifying potential agents of change and forecasting new trends in global patterns of medium/long term logistics flows, turns out to be quite limited. while purely quantitative forecasts of logistics parameters and variables are easily available from a variety of sources, we found that studies using qualitative and strategic approaches in the building of future scenarios are mostly developed for sectors other than logistics and transportation (e.g., manufacturing).therefore there is the need to address the issue of scenariobuilding in the field of global logistics through an efficient strategic method. although few studies (the most relevant being lapides mit sc2020 project: supply chains futures) have thus far adopted it, the strategic planning approach (spa) provides just such methodology. methods the paper seeks to fill this gap by employing a quali-quantitative methodology based on the spa to provide a number of macro medium term scenarios in the field of global logistics and assessing the impacts on the european area. following a comprehensive literature review, a preliminary grid of main drivers of change is derived to be presented for focus groups analyses. the groups are representative of both supply and demand perspectives within the global logistics sector. results the analyses are conducted in a semi-structured interviews format where a number of strategic scenarios for global logistics are built each scenario defined in terms of a combination of strategic drivers. in particular, results show how a specific model at the macro level symmetric global logistics model (sglm) will be likely to prevail on a global scale, in which two fundamental sub-components (local/global) will play a determinant role. the impact of the sglm is then strategically assessed with regards to european logistics systems.conclusion in conclusion, europe is likely to face a strengthening of both its logistics and industrial capabilities though at a different pace of development with respect to emerging economies in a context in which north african and eastern european markets will play a fundamental role in productionlogistics platforms. keywords：global logistics 、logistics networks 、scenario-building .、network design1 strategic scenarios of global logistics: some proposals as previously mentioned, scenario-building (spa) methodologyrequires combining driverswhose meanings and roles have been specified and discussed previouslyto produce and defining a number of scenarios (states of the world).in this section we first discuss some preliminary resultsand fix some points that come out from the analysis of majordrivers carried out so far through literature, focus groupsand interviews.such preliminary results and milestones are then useful toeffectively combine drivers in order to design scenarios. aswe will see, we end up specifying a prevailing macroscenarioof global logistics within which two sub-scenario components could possibly play a role.remember that each scenario, generally speaking, is acoherent picture of a probable state of the world. in additionto the shell corporations back-to-history case, some logistics companies effectively use the spa. for instance, ups used similar techniques to depict scenarios to 2017 46. starting from the analysis of some 3040 factors, ups reduced them to a couple of relevant dimensions. four probable scenarios were finally derived on the basis of manageability and relevance for the company.clearly, in our study we do not adopt a company-based vision of future logistics, but the remark is important to seehow, at the very end, even if the number of drivers initially considered are quite high, final scenarios end up to be just a few.preliminary results show us how the cost of strategic resourcesmost importantly energy oneswill play a determinantrole in the re-designing of global logistics networks, leadingthem toward more efficient and shorter ones. simultaneously,specialization will be a major requirement for production andlogistics chains, as well as a strong pressure for efficiency.furthermore, it will be strongly necessary for companies andinstitutions to be aligned to international benchmarks.the growth ofworld population will be another determinantdriver. it will imply, on one hand, an increase in consumptionlevels, and, on the other hand, an increasing pressure on resource utilization thereby fostering a trend toward moreefficiency in all sectors of the logistics chains.the current economic and financial crisis will certainlydetermine a decrease of global flows that will last for quitesome time, and more concentration of logistics markets. however,it will not constitute a structural economic change.innovation processes will follow a diffused model on globalscale, while the role of it systems will be very important forcompetitiveness as long as it will refer to advanced and innovativesystems managing logistics flows and information.moreover, as global growth spreads, requirements interms of regulation, sustainability, green logistics and human rights issues will become more and more important. overall, the scenario-building process (e.g., combiningdrivers) highlights the following prevailing macro forcesdetermining the future patterns of logistics networks:l a shortening of logistics networks (by strategic redesign);l a strong pressure toward efficiency, specialization and sustainability;l the american system, centered around brazil, mexico and the us, with a relevant role in the future;the eu system, again a relevant one above all to the extent to which immigration flows will be regarded as a fundamental production and consumption driver ,will face important challenges to governing the dynamics of immigration flows. as it will be able to seize upon such an opportunity as an economic driver, both an industrial future and an important role as a consumer market (trends )toward aging of population and consumption stagnation will thus be counterbalanced) can be envisioned within anenlarged eu area. conclusions1. global spatial logistics: some new insightsto summarize the main results, we would say that from the disappearing of an asymmetric global model of spatial logistics and manufacturing, a macro-model characterized by a more symmetric spatial distribution of production andcon sumption platforms can be seen as the most likely macro-scenario - sglm: symmetric global logistics model. generally, global flows will steadily increase in the future, as it results from the driver analysis.sub-scenarios can then be built related to the way in which such a diffused model can develop in relation to the prevailing forces or macro drivers.l local scenario: production will be near consumption;l global scenario: production will not necessarily be near consumption we think that the two scenario components will ultimately determine a prevailing (most likely) scheme of regionalized systems, along with the possible development of high degrees of specialization (or, should we say, superspecialization) in specific industrial and logistics sectors, in which global leaderships could emerge (conditional on market constraints in terms of customer service). the two scenario components should then be viewed as complementary, since we would have a prevailing and more likely pattern (local) and some probable global trends in specific industries.the macro-model of global spatial logisticssglmand its two possible logistics dynamics and features (one more likely to occur than the other) represent a major result of our study, compared with previous studies. it clearly does not reflect the common vision of an endless trends of globalization in manufacturing and logistics activities since, for instance, it supports generally the shortening rather than lengthening of logistics chains worldwide, and the (macro) regionalization of manufacturing and logistics activities rather than globalization. by contrast, underline the character of global production networks (gpns) as being more and more fragmented at global level. regional developments, however, are indeed considered as they are embedded in global networks . also, it is highlighted how gpns rely more and more on global distribution networks, while a further extension of globalization is seen in the development of global logistics providers. it is recognized that the conditions behind globalization that were supported by the setting of long distance transport chains will change in the future. however, emphasis is put merely on the role of energy prices as they will determine a modal shift toward more efficiency modes of transport.2. europeans logistics competitiveness: some strategic impactssome clear-cut strategic impacts on the european logisticsstems from the above scenario