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visual tracking ying wu electrical on the other hand, if the estimation is not confi dent (i.e., pi is big), or the observations are confi dent (i.e., i is small), the kalman innovation, i.e., yi fisi|i1, will contain critical information, and we need to use large kalman gain to update the state vector. 3 after some mathematical manipulation, we have: p1 i = p1 i|i1 + ft i 1 i fi this equation is quite interesting: it means that when the observation applies, i.e., after the correction step, the confi dence of the estimation of state vector increases, since pi will always be smaller than pi|i1. it implies that the observation will contribute to the error reducing. 5.2example: tracking feature point below is an example of kalman fi ltering: we want to track a point location in video sequences. let assume that through template matching, we can obtain observations of such a point in images, i.e., at any time instant, we can detect a location yi= x,yt, where x,y are image coordinates. obviously, such detected locations through template matching could be quite noisy. what we want to do is to estimate the true locations of the point, such that the tracking can be made more stable. although important issue here is that kalman fi lter can provide a certain predictions, which will largely reduce the search range for template matching. here, since the video capturing rate is 30hz, we can assume the time interval between two consecutive frames is 33ms, i.e., let = 33. we assume the dynamic model is a constant velocity motion model, so, the state vector si= x y x y , h = 100 010 0010 0001 , f = 1 000 0100 10 figure 3 shows an example of kalman fi ltering, in which the ground truth of the point 050100150200250300350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 051015202530 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 051015202530 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 (a)(b)(c) figure 3: an example of kalman fi ltering. movement is a constant velocity motion. the truth locations are represented by *s. we use +s to represent the observations, i.e., the measurements of the point in images, and os the estimated locations by kalman fi ltering. figure 3(a) shows the x-y plot, i.e., the trajectory of the point; figure 3(b) shows the x-t plot, and figure 3(c) shows the y-t plot. from these fi gures, we can see that the measurements are quite noisy. xy 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060 7070 8080 9090 100100 110110 120120 130130 140140 150150 160160 170170 180180 190190 200200 210210 220220 230230 240240 250250 260260 270270 280280 290290 300300 310310 xoyo 30.659940.6570 8.959537.2423 39.264315.4473 44.498046.7913 38.328520.9157 51.810369.8884 45.5302105.2615 77.991348.7215 102.2182129.7523 111.0600113.2396 119.4624123.4715 147.6434133.6459 155.1059150.1607 152.6376155.6021 140.3430141.1183 169.7388177.0869 162.1058196.2422 192.1907244.6329 208.2216173.8628 217.6761219.9901 209.7843224.6984 218.0435230.4154 248.3889263.8221 265.4243197.1156 265.7086276.5219 269.8376287.1688 295.4958306.1189 314.6301309.1713 266.9090280.1921 323.7047290.5026 x y 9.335412.3793 11.753926.8315 27.039126.2632 39.241639.2492 43.796435.8081 51.699052.7601 54.352977.0825 67.030974.3303 83.747398.0150 98.5564110.2223 111.8412121.9352 129.6134133.2564 145.1032146.0370 156.0213156.9505 160.5396160.9462 170.9846172.7870 176.5518186.7463 188.0920210.2524 200.9893210.0129 213.2579220.6773 220.3365229.7289 227.3068237.6911 240.1309252.1379 254.4077245.4367 265.3985259.7380 274.5736273.7378 287.9503289.5938 303.1626302.7000 302.0697304.8545 314.9902308.1957 where x,y are the ground truth, xo,yo are observations, and x, y are the estimation of kalman fi lter. we can see from the fi gures and data that kalman fi lter gave a quite reason- able result. homework: you can use the same set of data to play with a kalman fi lter. you can use diff erent settings. 11 6sequential monte carlo as described in previous sections, the visual tracking problem could be formulated in a prob- abilistic framework by representing tracking as a process of conditional probability density propagation. denote the target state and observation at time t as xtand zt, respectively, and xt= x1,.,xt,zt= z1,.,zt. the tracking problem is formulated as p(xt+1|zt+1) p(zt+1|xt+1)p(xt+1|zt)(10) although closed-form solutions of dynamic systems are generally intractable for many cases, monte carlo methods off er a way to approximate the inference and to characterize the evolution of the dynamic systems. in statistics, sampling techniques are widely used to approximate a complex probability density. sequential monte carlo methods for dynamic systems are also studied in the area of statistics 8, 14, 15. a set of weighted random samples (s(n),(n),n = 1,.,n is properly weighted with respect to the distribution f(x) if for any integrable function h(), lim n pn n=1h(s (n)(n) pn n=1(n) = ef(h(x)(11) in this sense, the distribution f(x) is approximated by a set of discrete random samples s(n), each having a probability proportional to its weight (n). since the a posteriori density p(xt|zt) is represented by a set of weighted random samples (s(n) t ,(n) t ), such a sample set will evolve into a new sample set (s(n) t+1, (n) t+1) representing the posterior p(xt+1|zt+1) at time t+1. in this sense, tracking could be characterized by the evolution of such a set of weighted samples in the state space. 6.1factored sampling to represent the a posteriori density p(xt|zt), a set of random samples x(n) t ,n = 1,.,n could be drawn from a prior p(xt|zt1), and weighted by their measurements, i.e., (n) t = p(zt|xt= x(n) t ), such that the a posteriori density p(xt|zt) is represented by a set of weighted random samples s(n) t ,(n) t . this sampling scheme is called factored sampling in statistics. it could be shown that such a sample set is properly weighted. this sample set will evolve to a new sample set at time t + 1 and the new sample set s(n) t+1, (n) t+1 represents the a posteriori density p(xt+1|zt+1) at time t + 1. this is the sequential monte carlo method employed in the condensation algorithm 4, 10, 11. condensation achieved quite robust tracking results. the robustness of monte carlo tracking is due to the maintaining of a pool of hypotheses. since each hypothesis needs to be measured and associated with a likelihood value, the computational cost mainly comes from the image measurement processes. generally, the more the samples, the better the chance to obtain accurate tracking results, but the slower the tracking speed. consequently, the number of samples becomes an important factor in monte carlo based tracking, since it determines the tracking accuracy and speed. unfortunately, when the dimensionality of the state space increases, the number of samples increases exponentially. 12 this phenomenon has been observed, and diff erent methods have been taken to reduce the number of samples. a semiparametric approach was taken in 5, which retained only the modes (or peaks) of the probability density and represented the local neighborhood sur- rounding each mode as a gaussian distribution. this approach eliminated the need for a large number of samples for representing the distribution around each mode nonparametri- cally. diff erent sampling techniques were also investigated to reduce the number of samples. in 17, a partitioned sampling scheme was proposed to track articulated objects. it was basically a hierarchical method to generate the hypotheses. a similar approach was taken in 21 to track multiple objects. in 7, an annealed particle fi ltering scheme was taken to search the global maximum of the a posteriori probability density. in 16, an exclusion scheme was proposed to approach the occlusion problem in multiple target tracking. 6.2importance sampling in practice, it might be diffi cult to draw random samples from the distribution f(x). sam- ples could be drawn from another distribution g(x), but their weights should be properly adjusted. this is the basic idea of the technique importance sampling. when samples s(n) are drawn from g(x), but weights are compensated as (n)= f(s(n) g(s(n) (n) then it can be proved that the sample set s(n),(n) is still properly weighted with respect to f(x). this is illustrated in figure 4. g(x) f(x) figure 4: importance sampling. samples that are drawn from another distribution g(x) but with adjusted weights could still be used to represent density f(x). to employ the importance sampling technique in dynamic systems, we need to let ft(x(n) t ) = p(xt= x(n) t |zt1), where ft() is the tracking prior, i.e., a prediction density. so, when we want to approximate the posterior p(xt|z), we could draw random samples from another distribution gt(xt), instead of the prior density ft(xt). but the sample weights should be compensated as (n) t = f(x(n) t ) g(x(n) t ) p(zt|xt= x(n) t )(12) 13 to evaluate ft(xt), we have ft(x(n) t )=p(xt= x(n) t |zt1) = n x k=1 (k) t1p(xt = x(n) t |xt1= x(k) t1) to approximate a posterior p(xt|zt), instead of sampling directly from the prior p(xt|zt1), samples s(n)could be drawn from another source gt(xt), and the weight of each sample is (n) t = ft(s(n) t ) gt(s(n) t ) p(zt|xt= s(n) t )(13) where ft(s(n) t ) = p(xt= s(n) t |zt1). we should notice here that in order to sample from gt(xt) instead of ft(xt), both ft(s(n) t ) and gt(s(n) t ) should be evaluatable. the importance sampling technique is an important part in the proposed co-inference tracking in 27. a dynamic system could be formulated in a probabilistic framework, and sampling techniques could be used to approximate probabilistic inferences. references 1 y. azoz, l. devi, and r. sharma. reliable tracking of human arm dynamics by multiple cue integration and constraint fusion. in proc. ieee conf. on computer vision and pattern recognition, pages 905910, santa barbara, california, june 1998. 2 stan birchfi eld. ellitical head tracking using intensity gradient and color histograms. in proc. ieee conf. on computer vision and pattern recognition, pages 232237, santa barbara, california, june 1998. 3 michael black and allan jepson.eigentracking: robust matching and tracking of articulated object using a view-based representation. in proc. european conf. computer vision, volume 1, pages 343356, cambridge, uk, 1996. 4 andrew blake and michael isard. active contours. springer-verlag, london, 1998. 5 tat-jen cham and james rehg. a multiple hypothesis approach to fi gure tracking. in proc. ieee conf. on computer vision and pattern recognition, volume 2, pages 239244, 1999. 6 dorin comaniciu, visvanathan ramesh, and peter meer. real-time tracking of non- rigid objects using mean shift. in proc. ieee conf. on computer vision and pattern recognition, volume ii, pages 142149, hilton head island, south carolina, 2000. 7 jon deutscher, andrew blake, and ian reid. articulated body motion capture by an- nealed particle fi ltering. in proc. ieee conf. on computer vision and pattern recog- nition, volume ii, pages 126133, hilton head island, south carolina, 2000. 14 8 arnaud doucet, s. j. godsill, and c. andrieu. on sequential monte carlo sampling methods for bayesian fi ltering. statistics and computing, 10:197208, 2000. 9 greg hager and peter belhumeur. real-time tracking of image regions with changes in geoemtry and illumination. in proc. ieee conf. on computer vision and pattern recognition, pages 403410, san francisco, ca, 1996. 10 michael isard and andrew blake. contour tracking by stochastic propagation of condi- tional density. in proc. of european conf. on computer vision, pages 343356, cam- bridge, uk, 1996. 11 michael isard and andrew blake. condensation conditional density propagation for visual tracking. intl journal of computer vision, 29:528, 1998. 12 michael isard and andrew blake. icondensation: unifying low-level and high-level tracking in a stochastic framework. in proc. of european conf. on computer vision, volume 1, pages 767781, freiburg, germany, june 1998. 13 baoxin li and rama chellapa. simultaneous tracking and verifi cation via sequential posterior estimation. in proc. ieee conf. on computer vision and pattern recognition, volume ii, pages 110117, hilton head island, south carolina, 2000. 14 jun liu and rong chen. sequential monte carlo methods for dynamic systems. j. amer. statist. assoc., 93:10321044, 1998. 15 jun liu, rong chen, and tanya logvinenko. a theoretical framework for sequential importance sampling and resampling. in a. doucet, n. de freitas, and n. gordon, editors, sequential monte carlo in practice. springer-verlag, new york, 2000. 16 john maccormick and andrew blake. a probabilistic exclusion principle for tracking multiple objects. in proc. ieee intl conf. on computer vision, pages 572578, greece, 1999. 17 john maccormick and michael isard. partitioned sampling, articulated objects, and interface-quality hand tracking. in proc. of european conf. on computer vision, vol- ume 2, pages 319, 2000. 18 l. rabiner. a tutorial on hidden markov models and selected applications in speech recognition. proceedings of the ieee, 77:257286, 1989. 19 y. raja, s. mckenna, and s. gong. colour model selection and adaptation in dynamic scenes.in proc. of european conf. on computer vision, pages 460475, freiburg, germany, june 1998. 20 christopher rasmussen and greg hager. joint probabilistic tec

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