Personal housing loan to the bank risk management research 金融学毕业论文.doc

personal housing loan to the bank risk management researchpart i. problem statementin this part, i will give a detailed introduction of industrial and commercial bank of china and the information about the individual housing loan. certainly, the problem formulation is the most important one i want to discuss.1 introduction to icbc and issuesindustrial and commercial bank of china ltd. (icbc) is the largest bank in the world by profit and market capitalization. it is one chinas big four state-owned commercial banks (the other three being the bank of china, agricultural bank of china, and china construction bank. it was founded as a limited company on january 1, 1984. as of march 2010, it had assets of rmb 12.55 trillion (us$1.9 trillion), with over 18,000 outlets including 106 overseas branches and agents globally. in 2011, it ranked number 7 on forbes global 2000 list of worlds biggest public companiesindustrial and commercial bank of 1991 established the department of real estate credit, for individual housing credit business, and made a worker housing mortgage loan management approach.1.1 individual housing loanindividual housing loan of bank credit to the self is the source of funds for personal loans to property buyers. also known as the commercial individual housing loans, banks name are not the same, the construction bank known as the individual housing loans, industrial and commercial bank of china and agricultural bank known as the personal housing loan guarantee1.2 the credit riskthe real estate industry is a high risk industry, housing credit business hides the bigger risk.it is the banks own risks. commercial banks as credit parties, in groups through the internal division of the mutual cooperation, a part of any mismanagement may cause potential risks into reality, caused the loss of assets. credit risk caused by characteristic is the banks themselves, but it can avoid, reduce and prevent the credit risk, which is the focus of the work2. problem formulationhow to decrease the credit risks of personal housing loan of icbc?3.interpretation of the problem formulationthe credit risk of individual housing loan risk is highest among species, including the borrower solvency risk of insufficient and guarantor solvency risk two kinds. on the loan applicant for credit investigation is the bank consumer credit business as an important link. because of chinas personal credit system has not yet been established, on the personal credit status and lack of reasonable criteria, the bank can only be to the borrower unit written proof of income and other materials as the basis of credit evaluation, its authenticity, timeliness is difficult to determine, on the personal income verification of high cost. individual housing loans up to a maximum of 30 years, in such a long time span to the borrower economic status was lasting monitoring, stage of commodity housing prices higher, the monthly repayment of principal and interest burden is heavy, once the borrower unemployment or regular income to reduce possible default risk. due to the development of real estate industry is a high risk, high profit industry, developers operating status, ability to pay is also very difficult to grasp, it is easy to produce risk.part ii. methodologyi collect the information and data with a individual housing loan business of icbc. i get some financial data i can use and find some theories to resolve the problems. i use the comparative analysis and the stp method to target and analyze the problems. and i use some theories such as mm theory and hedging theory to analyze the problems faced by icbc. in additional, i use some methods to analyze how to reduce the risks.part iii. analysis1. introduction of icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan risk management1.1 icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan statuson october 28, 2005, industry and commerce bank was renamed industrial and commercial bank of china co., ltd., the overall reform of the wholly state-owned commercial banks for joint stock commercial banks. on october 27, 2006, industry and commerce bank a shares and h shares listed on success, become chinas largest assets, customer base the most extensive, informationization level, business growth of the highest good public joint stock commercial banks. at the end of 2009, industry and commerce bank total assets of 117850.53 one hundred million yuan, total liabilities ll 1, 06.119 billion yuan, total market capitalisation of $269 billion, the worlds first listed banks; that year 3094.54 business income is one hundred million yuan, a net profit of 1293.50 one hundred million yuan, the worlds most profitable bank straight; bad loans outstanding and bad loans for the first ten years keep double down, defective rate reduced from 1.54% to; capital adequacy ratio and core capital ratios were 12.36% and 9.9096, in the process of rapid business growth still keep a good adequate capital level. china personal loans 12068.50 one hundred million yuan, up 45.5%, with the increase of 2768.70 personal housing loan one hundred million yuan, up 46.3%, and all of the first one. industry and commerce bank individual loan balances the proportion of the total outstanding balance of the loans is rising year by year, the end of 09 has reached to 21.1%, among them a personal housing loan balance of all personal loan balance was 72.4%.personal housing loanthe icbc shanghai branch head office is one of the branch, the head office is in the system in the top of every business, in recent years the head office system comprehensive assessment has ranked top. by the end of december 2009, icbc shanghai branch of local deposit, loan balance respectively for $954.2 billion and $369.5 billion respectively 18.93% and 20.43% than at the growth, including personal housing loan balance of 55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.3%, accounting for 14.9% of all loans; all the bad loans outstanding 4.084 billion yuan, defective rate 1.11%, 12 consecutive years realized the double down, including personal housing loan defective rate 0.24%, much lower than selling loans defective rate; middle business income is 4.818 billion yuan and the growth rate 35%, and record the same period; book profit is 15.184 billion yuan, overfulfilled year-round. icbc shanghai branch to trade leaders, optimum system, the world first-class for strategic development target, in recent years to the formidable strength, prudent business, of the spirit of innovation, through the reasonable layout of the marketing network, a wide range of high quality customer base, obvious advantages of innovative products, advanced electronic banking services, and realize the fast growth the scale of operation, the profit level leap in a new stage, and the quality of the assets reached a new level in shanghai, banks of in a leading level, including personal housing loan business development especially rapidly, 2009 icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan balance and increment of the trade in shanghai than were 14.06% and 14.71% in the first half year of 2201 accounts for incremental than rose to 23.1 l %1.2 1.1.1 icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan business overall development situationin the 2007 years, icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan began to reason stabilising,but growth is not big, to the end of 2008 at the end of 2005 to restore basic level. beginning in 2009, as all national encourage spending and investment policy influence, the real estate market supply and demand and the present situation of the two popular, peoples silverbank of individual housing loan interest rate policy further relax, therefore icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan realizedthe unprecedented growth situation, to the end of 2010 is expected to personal housing loan balance can reach 750one hundred million yuan, personal loans outstanding expected to exceed 80 billion yuan. table1.1 the personal housing loan balance table (amount units: ten thousand yuan)figure 1.1 icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan development situation (amount units: ten thousand yuan)1.1.2 icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan business features1. the individual housing loan balances the proportion of amount of personal loans is on the risefrom the table 1.2 shows, icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan balance personal loan balances of the proportion of basic between 90% 95%, and since 2007 the proportion of the rising trend. due to personal housing loan loan uses clear, the bank loan funds can be directly into developers or the sellers account to control the housing loan to capital flows, and shanghai branch has rich real estate development loan resources, so in recent years has been the shanghai branch of personal housing loan as a personal loan business development the important direction, and constantly compression personal comprehensive consumer loans, personal car loans, personal business loans, and other consumer loan business. table1.2 share tables2. second-hand housing loans fast growthin recent years, icbc shanghai branch second-hand housing loans to the rapid growth of the end of june by the year 2010, used a personal housing loan balance has reached nearly 31.8 billion yuan, is the end of 2005 the balance of 4.5 times, accounting for personal housing loan balance by 2005 the share of jumped from 17.7% 47.6%, already present and a basic personal housing loan divide the world situation, and according to the trend of increase in the first half of 2010, by the end of 2010 is likely to more than a personal housing loan balances. icbc shanghai branch second-hand individual housing loan was partly due to the rapid growth of the shanghai housing market in recent years the abnormal prosperity, on the other hand is shanghai branch and a lot of real estate agent established cooperative relations, according to statistics, until june 2010, since 2009 have loans cooperation agency has reached 185figure 1.2 the icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan constitute (amount units: ten thousand yuan)icbc shanghai branch of credit asset quality improving trends present the year after year, especially since listing reform, icbc shanghai branch of credit asset quality has the advanced international level of bank. the figure 3.2 shows, personal loan asset quality better than corporate loans, by the end of june 2010, personal loans non-conforming rate is only 0.38%, far below the legal person loan defective rate 1.01%, and personal loans due to high quality personal housing loan asset quality. personal housing loans accounted for more than 90% of personal loans, the direct impact on the quality of the assets of the whole individual loan nonconformities.figure 1.3 the icbc shanghai branch the quality of loan assetsfrom the table 1.3 know, icbc shanghai branch in developing a personal housing loan business at the same time always adhere to execute all the risk management measures, and maintain the individual housing loan quality the quality of the assets, and bad loans and bad balance realize the double down, and by the end of 2006 respectively the $167.57 million and 0.45% lower in 2010 to the end of june 137.39 million yuan and 0.21%.table 1.3 the icbc shanghai branch individual housing loan classification of category (amount units: ten thousand yuan)2. icbc shanghai branch personal housing loan risk management present situationthe first part of a detailed analysis on the icbc shanghai branch of individual housing loan main risk sources, secondly introduced the related risk assessment indexes, the last key to introduce the individual housing loan risk management aspects of the four marked characteristics: the organization, system construction, the overall process management, electronic information degree is higher.21 what are the sources of personal housing loan riskfrom the personal housing loan business process to see, this business is not only related to the sales contract, sign a building to apply for loans, bank loan survey and examination, loans of the contract, to deal with guaranty to register, insurance, notarization, loans, loan examination numerous links, they also involve building buyers and sellers, agency, banks, insurance companies, etc. therefore, many factors can cause individual housing loan risks, the causes of the complex and changeable.2.1.1 comes from the borrowerfrom the risk of the borrower, bank individual housing loan is the most main sources of risk, is mainly refers to the borrower of the moral risk and reimbursement ability and reimbursement intend to change brings the risk.1. the borrower of moral hazard.because at present our country personal credit registry system is not perfect, asymmetric information, and that the individuals various dishonest behavior should not punished, so the bank loans to the examination and approval of the phenomenon occurs when the adverse selection. icbc shanghai branch at present in the disposal process of bad loans personal, found that the borrower of the moral risk of the embodied in the following aspects: one is the borrower to provide fake documents, or to steal other people id card or property right card for false estate trade, using the name of others to apply for a loan to malicious cheating bank loans; 2 it is the borrower to provide false proof of earnings or tax return, intentionally improve personal income, in order to achieve the bank lending requirements; three is the borrower malicious exploiting legal loopholes, many malicious escape bank debt borrowers and the raising of their family members have no other place, or man-made themselves and their families live without raising the fact that other, resolute dont move out of their homes, the bank even win legal proceedings, the court is not the mortgage of execution. the above situation most by the borrower and real estate developers or property intermediary company common collusion operation.2. the borrower reimbursement ability to drop, also called the forced default. in real business, the more common situation: first is the borrower unemployment or business failure. the once unable to normal servicing, will give the bank caused great risk.second.it is the borrowers own or immediate relatives a major disease, bank loans will face can be retrieved, and the court does not carry out the risk.three is the borrower violate the law sentenced, once by the borrower violate the law be judicial authorities held or sentence, the loan default rate almost close to 100%.3. when the borrowers payments intend to change. the borrowers payments will repay the loan is referred to the subjective initiative, is to ensure that the main factors of safety bank loans, when the borrower malicious escape the behavior of existing debt, the banks often need to spend a lot of manpower and time and financial resources to settle the part of the loan risk.when the borrower marriage (or love) broken relationships. bank loans in daily demanded overdue process, often will meet the borrower is not willing to accept the obligation of reimbursement. as long as when there is a party would not owing on the loan, and the other party in most cases is also not willing to loan payments, even if one party willing to loan payments, usually in a certain proportion owing on the loan, not a full return, so the bank will still take greater risks. and the marriage of the property of the segmentation under general is more difficult, the bank also provides borrowers cant do change, so in that case, unless the parties can talk things over solve the property right of the building belongs and loan problems, otherwise the bank can only be resolved through legal channels. when it is rational to breach of contract. when home prices to fall or rapidly rising interest rates to a larger extent, continue to repayment of cost more than give up reimbursement of income, the borrower will be rational breach. the most active breach may occur in the loan contract after the signing of the first two years, as the default opportunity cost is lower, the loss of just head, transaction cost and part of the loan principal and interest2.1.2 from real estate developers1. real estate developers fraudwhen real estate developers funds, and then cant obtain bank development loan, often used intentionally to improve mortgage prices down to open or false starts to help borrowers receipt diddle bank loans.2. real estate developers with the other bad behaviorof course developers in addition to the fraud risk, and you may be because of his bad behavior trigger loan risk. for example, the building lousy tail, developers of volume and walk; developers illegal building, which could deal with produce evidence2.1.3 from secondhand the room the sellerthe risk of the seller from secondhand room, is mainly refers to the seller for bank capital fingerprint secondhand the room and not the real business of a risk. this kind of situation commonly known as the real, namely heart to the seller of secondhand the room often still lived in the house, and the houses have loans back by the vendor rather than the borrower. this is mainly due to the customer manager in loan survey only paying attention to check the borrower when reimbursement ability, ignore understand the authenticity of transactions in the house.2.1.4 from increased risk of intermediary institutions. from the organizations risk assessmentfrom the organizations risk assessment, is mainly refers to assess the risk of due diligence evaluation agency does not. property values of assessment is correct or not, relates directly to the bank in the future when the mortgaged property can pay of full specified amount dispos