【William Blair】2025年二级市场报告-2025 Secondary Market Report

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MamGa

InThisReport

2024WasaRecordYearforSecondariesMomentumExpectedtoContinue,

AccordingtoMarketInsiders

HighlightsandAnalysisFromWilliamBlair’sPrivateCapitalAdvisoryTeam

2025SecondaryMarketReport

ThesecondarymarketsetrecordsforbothGP-and

LP-ledsin2024,propellingexpectationshigherfor

2025andbeyond.

BroaderMarketImproves;SecondariesImproveMore

2024wasanexceptionalyearfor

thesecondarymarket,withvolumes

growingapproximately40%comparedto2023,notchinganall-timehighof

$155billion.Thatgrowthoutpaced

sponsor-relatedM&Avolumes,whichimprovednearly25%year-over-year,aswellasglobalIPOactivity,whichfell4%year-over-year.2

Marketinsiderswhorespondedto

WilliamBlair’s2025SecondaryMarketSurveyarebullishaboutthecoming

yearandpredict$175billionintotal

activity—13%higherthan2024’s

recordtotal—ledbya$12billion

jumpinGP-leds.Aswe’lldiscuss,

largeinvestorsareactivelyseekingtodeployrecentlyraisedcapital,andnewinvestorsareemergingtomeetthe

continuedsupplyoftransactions.

Demand,SupplyConvergeforRecordTotals

Akeydriverbehindthesecondaries

boomisincreaseddemand.Secondaryinvestordrypowderincreasedby

morethan50%inthepastfiveyears

WilliamBlairPrivateCapitalAdvisory2025SecondaryMarketReport

GlobalSecondaryMarketVolume(in

Billions)1

$73

$24

$49

2018

$80

$51

$42

$8

$40

$7

$33

2015

$26

$35

$28

$2

$26

2013

$14

$9

$26

2016

$37

2017

$54

$34

2014

2019

$60

$32 $28 2020GP-Led

$134

$68

$66

2021

$105

$50

$55

2022

$175*$156

$110

$50

$60

2023

$76

$80

2024

$88

$86

2025E

LP-LedDealVolume

andagainexceeded$200billionlast

year.3Thistrendhasbeensupportedbyrecentrecordfundraisesacrossmanyofthelargestsecondaryfunds,including

Ardian($30billion),Blackstone($25

billion),LexingtonPartners($26

billion),HarbourVestPartners($15

billion),andothers,aswellascapital

flowsinto’40Actfundsmanagedby

firmssuchasHamiltonLane,Carlyle,

Apollo,Ares,Pantheon,andStepStoneGroup,amongothers.Furthermore,anexpandingcohortofmarketentrantsistakingshape,whichincludesavarietyofprivateequityfirms,assetmanagers,andotherrecentlyformedindependentsecondaryinvestmentfirmswithdirectinvestmentexperience.

DealVolume

*Estimatedamount

Theimpactofcapitalformationon

marketactivityhasbeensignificant.

Investorcapacitytomakelarger

commitmentstotransactionsaslead

investorshasgrownsignificantly;

simultaneously,thesyndicationmarkethasalsodeepened,aschecksizes

haveincreasedandnewparticipants

haveemerged.Thesetrendshave

supportedefficientexecutionoflargertransactions.Additionally,anewbreedofinvestorsemployingnarrower

mandatesfocusedonspecificsectors

orsecondarytransactionprofileshas

developed,enablingtransactionactivitytargetingcompaniesandsituations

thatotherwisemaynothavecometomarket.

SecondaryInvestorDryPowder(in

Billions)4

$74

$78

$97

$121

$127

$13

$1750

$175

$189

$246

$202

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

201

92020

2021

2022

2023

2024

1.Source:WilliamBlairEstimates;2025WilliamBlairSecondaryMarketSurvey.

2.Source:S&PGlobal,“Privateequity,venturecapitaldealvaluejumps25%in2024,”January14,2025.

3.Source:Preqin.

4.Source:Ibid.

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Largeinvestorsare

activelyseekingtodeployrecentlyraisedcapital,

andnewinvestorsareemergingtomeetthecontinuedsupplyoftransactions.

Meanwhile,thesupplyoftransactionsremainsstrong,asLPscontinuetoseek

liquidityfromtheirprivatemarketportfolios,andGPsrecognizethebenefits

secondarytransactionsofferfortheirfunds,LPs,andportfoliocompanies.The

followingreportdetailstrendsfrom2024andlooksaheadto2025withafocusontheGP-ledmarket.Weconcludewithananalysisofrespondents’bullishoutlook—includingpredictionsof$300billioninsecondaryvolumeby2030.

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HighlightsandAnalysisFromWilliamBlair’s2025SecondaryMarketSurvey

GlobalGP-LedSecondaryMarketVolumebyDealType(inBillions)

What’sBehindtheGP-LedSurge?

$68

$10

$12

$50

$34

$13

$30

$22

$20

$32

$25

$17

$11

2024A***

$21

2021

$20

2023

$32

$9

$12

$65

$10

2022

2020

2024E**

30%

30%

3%

$35

$50

$8

TheGP-ledmarkethadarecord2024

2020-2024A

CAGR

Single-AssetMulti-AssetOther*

intermsofvolumeandnumberof

launcheddeals,supportedbygrowing

+52%$76

24%

appetitefromGPsandavailablecapital.Volumegrewforeverytransaction

categoryundertheGP-ledumbrella,

withsingle-assetcontinuationfunds

(“SACF”)againemergingasthemost

popularstructure,representing45%ofGP-ledvolume.SACFvolumeswere13%higherthanrespondentstoourprevioussurveyexpectedandincreased54%

year-over-yearwithatotalof73in2024.Anuptickinlargemulti-asset

continuationfunds(“MACF”)wasa

keydriverof2024volumes.While

MACFvolumewas28%higherthan

respondentstoourprevioussurvey

*‘Other’includesannexfunds,NAVloans,stripsales,andtenderoffers.

**Estimatedtotalfrom2024WilliamBlairSecondaryMarketSurvey.

***Actualtotalfrom2025WilliamBlairSecondaryMarketSurvey.

expectedandup60%year-over-year,thenumberofMACFtransactionsbroughttomarketdeclinedto33in2024,indicatinganincreaseinaverageMACFdealsize.

AverageNumberofDealsReviewed

OtherGP-ledtransactionstructures

20232024

SACF

54

73

suchasannexfunds,NAVloans,andstripsalesgrewinvolumeasGPscontinuetoseekinnovativestrategiestogenerate

MACF

37

33

liquidityandprovidegrowthcapitalfortheirportfolios.

TheEvolvingUseofContinuationFunds

ContinuationfundsareincreasinglybecomingafavorableconstructforGPsandtheirLPs,asthesetransactionsenableDPI

acceleration,createshareholderliquidity,raisefollow-oncapitalforM&Aandgrowth,anddeepenLPrelationships.Through

favorablepricingandeffectivecommunicationoftransactionrationaletoLPs,manyGPshavegeneratedsuccessfuloutcomesandhaverecurringusersofthecontinuationfundtoolkit—oursurveyfoundthatrepeatsponsorsrepresented42%of2024volume.

42%

58%

2024CFVolume

First-TimeSponsorRepeatSponsor

67%

31%

oflarge-capGPscompletedormarketedaGP-led

secondarytransaction

ofmidcapGPscompletedormarketedaGP-led

secondarytransaction

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ContinuedStrengthintheMiddleMarket

MostofthecapitalinvestedinGP-ledtransactionsin2024wenttowardthemiddlemarketandthelowermiddlemarket,with

thetrendespeciallypronouncedwhenlookingatshareofdealcount.Investorsaredrawntothemiddlemarketasitoffersa

compellingcombinationofattractivepotentialreturns,oftenlowerentryvaluations(whencomparedtolarge-captransactions),strongGPalignment,andamultitudeofpathstoliquidityandexits.

TotalCapitalInvestedinCFsbyDealSize

64%

SACFs

6%

27%

29%

37%

DealSize

$100M-$500M$500M-$1B

$1B-$2B

$2B+

12%

27%17%

MACFs

44%

71%

CheckSizesGrow,ParticularlyforDiverseTransactions

Withchecksizesincreasinglastyear,nearlytwiceasmanyinvestorsmadeMACFcommitmentsgreaterthan$300million,ascomparedtoSACFs,demonstratingtherelativelydeeperpoolofcapitalabletobedeployedatscalefordiversetransactions.Atthesametime,leadinvestorsrepresentedonlyabout50%ofcontinuationfundtransactionvolume,accordingtosurveyrespondents,asaveragetransactionsizecontinuedtoincrease.

2024LargestCFCheckSize

9%

2%2%

5%

15%

SACFs

28%

49%

CheckSize

<$50M

$50M-$149M

$150M-$299M

$300M-$499M

$500M-$750M+

$750M+

17%

2%4%

11%

4%

48%

31%

MACFs

OrganicGrowthBecomesInvestors’TopPriority

Respondents’topinvestmentcriterionin2024wasorganicgrowth,unseatingGPalignment,lastyear’stopchoice.Investors

todayareprioritizingassetquality,asdemonstratedbytheincreasedfocusonasset-levelcharacteristicssuchasorganicgrowth,limiteddownsiderisk,andabilitytoexit.Still,GPalignmentandrelationshipcontinuetobeprioritized.Simultaneously,target

returnsforcontinuationfundsstayedgenerallyinlinewithrecentexpectations.

TargetReturnsforCFs

Single-AssetCF

2023

2.2x

21%

2024

2.1x

20%

2023

1.9x

18%

2024

1.9x

19%

Multi-AssetCF

NetMOIC

NetIRR

MostImportantTransactionCriteria

20232024

StrongOrganicGrowth

GPAlignmentWithCF

StrongOrganicGrowthGPAlignmentWithCF

LimitedDownsideRisk

GPRelationship/Angle

LimitedDownsideRisk

GPRelationship/Angle

ResilienceThroughCyclesExitFeasibilityandTiming

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ContinuedEvolutiononSectorPreferences

SecondaryinvestorscontinuedtoleanintoprofessionalservicesandIT/software/hardwareandawayfromconsumer

productsandretail/restaurantsectors.ThefavorabletailwindsinAIanddigitaltransformationspurredincreasingdemand

forsoftwaresolutions,cybersecurity,andITinfrastructure.Thesebusinessesalsocontinuetobenefitfromattractivemarginsandrecurringrevenuemodels,whichnaturallyalignwithsecondaryinvestorpreferences.Additionally,professionalservicesbusinesssuchasconsulting,legal,andaccountingfirmscontinuetoshowresilienceduringtimesofeconomicuncertainty.

Whilethesesectorscontinuetogaintractionamonginvestors,theoverallmarkethasbeensofterinfirstquarter2025,drivenbytariffconcernsandpublicmarketvolatility.Thecontinueduncertaintymayslightlyimpactthebroadermarket,including

thosesectorsonwhichsecondaryinvestorsarebullish.Regardlessofrecenttrends,factorssuchasinflationanditsimpactonconsumerconfidenceandspendingbeyondthemostaffluent,laborcosts,supplychainchallenges,andhigherinterestrates

haveimpactedtheperceptionofcertainpocketsoftheconsumerproductsandretail/restaurantssectors.Inaddition,ongoingtechadvancementande-commercegrowthcontinuetodisruptcertainconsumerproductsandretailbusinesses.

Investors’LatestSectorPreferences5

ProfessionalServices

IT/Software/HardwareAerospaceandDefense

OtherIndustrial/ManufacturingFinancialServices

Healthcare–ServicesDistribution

Healthcare–LifeSciencesHealthcare–MedTech

Education

Packaging

Energy/EnergyServicesConsumerServices

FoodandBeverageChemicals

ConsumerProducts

BuildingProducts/ConstructionAutomotive/Transportation

RetailandRestaurant

Media

MoreCautiouslyMoreAggressively

(52%)

24%

(2%)20%

(9%)16%

(5%)14%

(5%)14%

(24%)14%

(7%)12%

(14%)9%

(10%)9%

(10%)5%

(5%)5%

(20%)5%

(35%)3%

(17%)3%

(14%)3%

2%

(24%)2%

(22%)2%

(41%)

(5%)

(3%)

Q22024(MoreCautiously)Q22024(MoreAggressively)

OverallPricingImproves

BothSACFsandMACFsexperiencedpricingimprovementcomparedto2023.OftotalSACFtransactionsin2024,91%pricedat90%ofparorbetter,comparedwith73%atthatlevelin2023.ForMACFs,69%oftransactionspricedat90%ofparorbetterin2024,comparedwith41%atthatlevelin2023.

SACFPricingMACFPricing

91%ofdeals

pricedat

69%ofdeals

pricedat

90%+ofNAV

36%17%

47%36%

31%

90%+ofNAV

13%

<80%ofNAV

8%

2%

>100%ofNAV

4%5%

80-89%ofNAV

90-99%ofNAV

100%(Par)ofNAV

<80%80-89%90-99%100%(Par)>100%

ofNAVofNAVofNAVofNAVofNAV

5.ThischartincludesdatafromWilliamBlair’sannualsurveyaswellasdatafromasurveyof50-plussecondaryinvestorsconductedinQ22024.

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ContinuationFundTerms

ContinuationfundscontinuedtoofferGPsfavorableeconomictermswhileprovidingexistingLPsadiversesetofrolloveroptions.

WhilestapledcommitmentstoaGP’sflagshipfundsaregenerallyuncommon,in2024,approximately60%ofsecondaryinvestorsinoursurveycommittedprimarycapitaltoaprivateequityfirm’snewflagshipfollowingacontinuationfund.Theaverageprimarycommitmentfromsecondaryinvestorsinthesescenarioswasapproximately$15million.

Terms,Unfunded,andManagementFees

Asa%oftotalnumberofCFs

ManagementFees

>100bps

50-100bps

<50bps

16%

69%

15%

UnfundedCapitalfor:

ExistingPortfolio

New

72%

Investment

17%

Terms

PremiumCarryTier

PreferredTerms

forRollerLPs

13%

15%

LPOptions

Asa%oftotalnumberofCFs

LPRolloverOptions

ReinvestmentOnly

32%

ModifiedStatusQuo

35%

TrueStatusQuo

22%

PartialSale/

Roll

70%

InvestorsStillPrioritizeAlignmentWithGPs,Management

Nearly90%ofcontinuationfunddealsinvolvedactivemembersoftheGProlling100%oftheiravailableproceedsintothecontinuationfund.Additionally,23%ofSACFssawtheGPinvestwiththeirflagshipfundalongsidethecontinuationfund,and50%ofthosedealsinvolvedGPsmakinganincrementalcommitmenttothecontinuationfund.Whilealignmentwithmanagementisapriority,wecontinuetoseemoreflexibilityformanagementteammemberstotakematerialliquidityincontinuationfundtransactions.

GPLiquidityinContinuationFundsManagementLiquidityinContinuationFunds

84%

88%

2023

%ofTotalCFs

2024

12%

17%

2%

0%

1%0%

0%1%-25%26%-50%51%+

Liquidity%

45%

2023

2024

38%

41%

%ofTotalCFs

30%

25%

20%

2%

3%

0%1%-25%25%-50%51%+

Liquidity%

Record2024forLP-LedSecondaries

With$80billioninvolume—effectivelyhalfthemarket—theLP-ledmarketalsosetrecordslastyear.

In2024,sellersenjoyedthebestpricingenvironmentsinceearly2022,largelydrivenbyrecentcapitalformationacrossthe

secondarymarket.ScaledLPportfoliopurchaseswereabletoserveasthefoundationforrecentlyraisedclosed-endfunds,

whileallowingthesegroupstodiversifyaroundtheirrecentGP-ledtransactions.Atthesametime,theproliferationandgrowthof’40ActFundsspurredincreaseddemandforlarge,diversifiedopportunities.Whileapopularsentimentholdsthat’40Act

Fundsconsistentlyoutbidtraditionalfundsin2024,thedistinctionwaslargelymoot:themajorityof’40Actvehiclesexistunderthesameroofastraditionalclosed-endfunds,andpurchasesareoftensyndicatedacrossbothstructures.

Still,ascomparedwiththeopportunitysetonthesellsideanditsbreadthofunderlyingstrategies,geographies,managers,andvintageprofiles,thereremainsroomfornewentrantsandcertainlymorecapitalonthebuyside.

Whiledealflowbrieflyslowedintheearlyweeksof2025,activityhaspickedupsharply,andwehavegoodvisibilityintothepipelineofupcomingprogrammaticsellingactivity,spanningfund-of-funds,publicandcorporatepensions,andendowments.Further,thestrongpricingenvironmenthaspiquedtheinterestofpotentialfirst-timesellers,whethertowinddownmore

matureinvestmentprogramsorsimplytogainexperience,shouldtheywanttobepreparedforalarge-scalesaleinthefuture.

Projectionsofa$300BillionSecondaryMarketby2030

Investorsinoursurveybelievethesecondarymarketisstillinitsinfancy,withpredictionsthatvolumewillhit$300billionby

2030.Forsomeperspective,thatwouldbenearlydouble2024’srecordtotals.

What’sbehindthebullishness?Investorsseefurtheradoptionofcontinuationfundtechnologyamonglarge-cap(approximately70%penetration)6andmiddle-marketGPs(approximately30%)7aswellasagrowingtrendtowardGPsasrepeat,recurring

issuers.Simultaneously,secondaryinvestorshavedevelopedimpressivetrackrecordsduetostrongcontinuationfund

performances,resultinginlargersuccessorfundsizesforexistinginvestorsaswellastheentranceofnewsecondaryinvestors.ThatdovetailswithacontinualneedforLPliquidityinprivatemarkets,particularlywiththeentryofmoreretailinvestors.

Retailcapitalinflowsarepoisedformoregrowthgiventhesecular“democratizationofalternatives,”aswellasthepotentialofopeningupoftheU.S.401(k)market,valuedinthetrillions.

GlobalSecondaryTransactionVolumes(inBillions)

1.7x

$300

LP-Led

Multi-Asset

Single-Asset

2.9x

OtherGP-Led*

$175

$12

$40

$37

$60

$86

$9$12$11

$27

20202025E2030E

*‘Other’includesannexfunds,NAVloans,andstripsales.

6.Source:WilliamBlairResearchconductedinlate2023.

7.Source:Ibid.

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LearnMoreAboutWhat’sDrivingtheSecondaryMarket

WilliamBlair’sPrivateCapitalAdvisoryteamwouldwelcometheopportunitytoshareourperspectivesanddiscusshowthesemarketthemesaffectyou.Pleasedonothesitatetocontactusifyouareinterestedinlearningmoreaboutour

surveyorcontinuingtheconversationaboutkeythemesinthemarket.

WilliamBlair’sPrivateCapitalAdvisoryTeam

MikeCustar

/p>

mcustar@

QuinnKolberg

/p>

qkolberg@

TomMarking

/p>

tmarking@

KyleMcManus

+12122372706

kmcmanus@

JakeStuiver

/p>

jstuiver@

Appendix:SurveyDetails

FromDecember2024throughJanuary2025,WilliamBlairsurveyed72secondariesinvestors:40%werededicated

secondaryinvestors,nearlyhalf(49%)werecombined

primaryand