面向未来的长寿经济-创新与关键趋势

IncollaborationwithMercer

Future-ProofingtheLongevityEconomy:

InnovationsandKeyTrends

WHITEPAPER

MARCH2025

Images:GettyImages

Contents

Foreword3

Executivesummary4

Introduction5

1Buildingresilientpublicretirementsystems8

1.1Thecaseforaction9

1.2Understandingthechallenges9

1.3Spotlightsoninnovation11

1.4Apathforward13

2Fromaccumulationtodecumulation14

2.1Thecaseforaction15

2.2Understandingthechallenges16

2.3Spotlightsoninnovation18

2.4Apathforward20

Feature:TechnologyandAIinthelongevityeconomy21

3Roleofemployersinfinancialwell-being23

3.1Thecaseforaction24

3.2Understandingthechallenges25

3.3Spotlightsoninnovation26

3.4Apathforward28

Feature:Extremeheat,climatechangeandthelongevityeconomy29

4Economicsofcaregivingandlong-termcare31

4.1Thecaseforaction32

4.2Understandingthechallenges32

4.3Spotlightsoninnovation34

4.4Apathforward36

Feature:Thefutureofthelongevityeconomy37

5Pathwaysforeconomicgrowth39

5.1Thecaseforaction40

5.2Understandingthechallenges41

5.3Spotlightsoninnovation42

5.4Apathforward44

Actionsforimpact45

Conclusion49

Contributors50

Endnotes53

Disclaimer

ThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinaretheresultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhose

resultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.

Inthispaper,manyareasofinnovationhavebeenhighlightedwiththepotentialtosupport

thelongevityeconomytransition.ThefactthataparticularcompanyorproductishighlightedinthispaperdoesnotrepresentanendorsementorrecommendationonbehalfoftheWorldEconomicForumorMercer,andshouldnotbereliedonforsuchpurposes.

Future-ProofingtheLongevityEconomy:InnovationsandKeyTrends2

Future-ProofingtheLongevityEconomy:InnovationsandKeyTrends3

MARCH2025

Future-ProofingtheLongevityEconomy:

InnovationsandKeyTrends

Foreword

HalehNazeri

Lead,LongevityEconomy,WorldEconomicForum

Theworldappearsincreasinglyfragmented,but

oneuniversalrealityconnectsusall–ageing.

Acrosstheworld,peoplearelivinglongerthanpastgenerations,insomecasesbyupto20years.Thislongevityshift,coupledwithdecliningbirthrates,

isreshapingeconomies,workforcesandfinancialsystems,withprofoundimplicationsforindividuals,businessesandgovernmentsalike.

Ascountriestransform,thesystemsthatunderpinthemmustalsoevolve.Today’srealityincludesa

wideninggapbetweenhealthspanandlifespan,theemergenceofamultigenerationalworkforcewith

fivegenerationsworkingsidebyside,andtheneedforstrongerintergenerationalcollaboration.

Oneofthemostimportanttopicstoconsider

duringthisdemographictransitionistheeconomicimplicationsoflongerlives.Thispaperhighlights

fivekeytrendsthatwillinfluenceandshapethefinancialresilienceofinstitutions,governments

GrahamPearce

SeniorPartner,

GlobalDefinedBenefit

SegmentLeader,Mercer

andindividualsintheyearsahead.Italso

showcasesinnovativesolutionsthatarealreadybeingimplementedbycountries,businessesandorganizationstoprepareforthefuture.

Whilethechallengesaresignificant,theyalsopresentanopportunitytodevelopsystemsthataremore

inclusive,equitable,resilientandsustainableforthelongterm.Thisisachancetostrengthenpensionsystemsandsocialprotections,notonlyforthosewhohavetraditionallybenefited,butalsoforthosewhowereleftoutofsocialcontractsthefirsttime.

Wearegratefultoourmultistakeholderconsortiumofleadersacrossbusiness,thepublicsector,

civilsocietyandacademiafortheircontributions,inputsandcollaborationonthisreport.Welookforwardtoseeinghowotherswillcontinueto

buildontheseinnovativeideastofuture-proofthelongevityeconomyforabrighterandmoreprosperoustomorrow.

Future-ProofingtheLongevityEconomy:InnovationsandKeyTrends4

Executivesummary

Theworldisatapivotalmomentinitsdemographictransition.

Morethanoneinfourpeopleworldwidenowresideinacountrywherethepopulationhasalready

peakedinsize,signallingaprofoundshiftinlabourmarketsandeconomicsystems.1Meanwhile,globallifeexpectancyhasincreasedsignificantlyoverthepastcentury;however,thisprogressmasksstark

disparitieslifeexpectancycanexceed80yearsinhigh-incomecountriesyetremainbelow60insomelow-incomenations.2Asbirthratesdecline,someoftheworldsmostadvancedeconomieswouldneedtoatleastdoubletheirproductivitygrowthratestosustainhistoricalimprovementsinlivingstandards.3

Thesedemographicshiftsintersectwithtwootherdefiningtransitionsofourtime:therapid

accelerationoftechnologicaladvancesandartificialintelligence,aswellastheescalatingimpactof

climatechangeandextremeheat.Takentogether,theseforcescreatebothanurgentchallengeand

anunprecedentedopportunitytorethinkfinancial

resilienceandeconomicparticipationacrossalllifestages.Governments,businessesandcivilsocietymustactnowtobuildsystemsthatenablepeopleofallgenerationstothrive.

Buildingonthe

LongevityEconomyPrinciples

,

thispublicationsynthesizesfivekeytrends

shapingfinancialresilienceandhighlightsscalableinnovationsthatcanbeadaptedtodifferentnationalandsectoralcontexts.

Thequestion

isnotwhether

changewillcome–butwhether

stakeholderswill

shapeitorbe

forcedtoreacttoit.

Buildingresilientpublicretirementsystems

Aspopulationsage,publicretirementsystemsfacegrowingchallengeswithregardtofinancialsustainability.

Fromaccumulationtodecumulation

Theglobalshiftfromdefinedbenefittodefinedcontributionplansplacesgreaterresponsibilityonindividualstomanagetheirownfinancialsecurity.

Roleofemployersinfinancialwell-being

Supportingfinancialwell-beingisnotjustaninvestmentinemployeesitisaninvestmentinorganizationalresilienceandsuccess.

Economicsofcaregivingandlong-termcare

Thegrowingdemandforcareservicesrequiresurgentpolicyandworkplacesolutionstosupportbothcarersandcarerecipients.

Pathwaysforeconomicgrowth

Flexiblesocialsystemsareessentialforenablingindividualstonavigateeconomictransitions,whichinturnallowsthemtocontinuecontributingmeaningfullytolong-termeconomicgrowth.

The“future”ofthelongevityeconomyisnotinsomedistantmomentitisalreadyhere.Aroundthe

world,innovativesolutionsareemergingtomeet

thechallengesofthisdemographictransition,and

thesecanbescaled,adaptedandintegratedinto

broaderfinancialandsocialframeworks.Byinvestinginresilientfinancialsystems,inclusivepolicies

andsustainablesupportstructures,stakeholdersacrossthepublicandprivatesectorscanshapealongevityeconomyinwhichpeopleofallages

canthrive.Withoutboldaction,theworldrisks

financialinstability,overwhelmedcaresystemsandaworkforceunpreparedforthefuture.

Thequestionisnotwhetherchangewillcomebutwhetherstakeholderswillshapeitorbeforcedto

reacttoit.Thisreportservesasbotharoadmapandacalltoactionempoweringdecision-makersto

takeboldstepsinreimaginingfinancialresilienceforgenerationstocome.

Future-ProofingtheLongevityEconomy:InnovationsandKeyTrends5

Introduction

Societyhas

anopportunity

toproactively

addresstheseismicdemographic

transitionand

co-designan

environmentin

whichbothyoungandoldcanflourish,benefitingall.

Demographicshiftsarereshapingtheworldinprofoundways,drivingunprecedented

changesinsocialandeconomicsystems.

Asglobalpopulationsageandbirthratesdecline,

societymusturgentlyadapttothechangingrealities.Allregionsoftheworldwillbeaffectedbythis

seismicdemographictransition.Thestatisticsaresoberingandhighlighttheurgencyofthisshift:

By2080,individualsaged65orolderareprojectedtooutnumberchildrenundertheageof18.4

By2060,Asiawillhave60%oftheworldspopulationaged65andolder.5

By2050,theglobalpopulationaged65and

olderwillreach1.6billion,withoneinsixpeopleover65.6InEuropeandNorthAmerica,this

ratiowillrisetooneinfour;insomecountries,suchasJapan,SouthKoreaandItaly,thisratioisprojectedtoexceedoneinthree.7

By2050,sub-SaharanAfricaisprojectedto

haveanetincreaseof740millionpeople,

experiencingthefastestincreaseinthetraditionalworking-agepopulationofallregions.8

Asof2025,oneinfourpeopleresideinone

ofthe63countriesthathavealreadypeakedinsize,accountingfor28%oftheworlds

population.9China,previouslytheworldsmostpopulouscountry,sawitspopulationdeclinein2022forthefirsttimeinsixdecades.10

Thetraditionalbalancebetweentheyearsspent

inproductiveemploymentandretirementis

rapidlybecomingunsustainable.Fordecades,the“demographicdividend”theeconomicbenefit

resultingfromalargeandincreasingworking-age

populationcomparedtoretireeshashelpedfuel

growthinmanynations.However,aslifeexpectancyincreasesandbirthratesdecline,countriesnow

facethedualchallengeofmaintainingtheresilienceofeconomicsystemswhileensuringyounger

generationsarenotoverburdenedwithfuturefinancialstrain.

Thesedemographicchangesnotonlynecessitateare-evaluationofeconomic,retirement,healthcareandcaresystemsbutalsoinfluenceindividualsfinancialpathwaysandtheroleofemployersinsupporting

amultistagelife,creatingacomplexwebof

interdependenciesthatmustbeaddressedholistically.

Yetsocietyasawholeislargelyunpreparedforthissignificantdemographicshift,eitherdueto

inadequatesavings,lackofcareerflexibilityor

outdatedpensionsystemswithmandatedretirementages.Inmanyregions,particularlyinlow-and

middle-incomecountries,barriersincludinglimitedjobopportunities,economicinstabilityandinadequate

infrastructurecanaddfurthercomplications.

Reframingthedemographicdividend

Theideathatanageingsocietyisaburden,andwilldepleteresourcesandtaxsocialservices,needs

tobereframed:inamultistagelife,everyonecan

contributeandbenefitatdifferenttimesdependingontheircircumstances.Thechallenge,then,is

creatingsystemsthatallowpeopletocontributetosocietyatvariousstagesoflife,whetherthatmeanstransitioningintoentrepreneurialventures,shifting

careersorengagingininformalcareprovision,

whilealsoincreasingthenumberofyearsinwhichpeoplearehealthyenoughtomakeapositive

contributiontotheeconomy.Facilitatingthese

transitions,ensuringfinancialsecurityateachstageandpromotinghealthyageingunlocksopportunitiesforallgenerationstothrive,whileatthesametimeincreasingtheoverallsizeoftheeconomy.

Aninclusiveandfinanciallyresilientfutureisnotjustaboutmakingadjustmentstoexistingsystems,butaboutrethinkinghowindividualscanbesupportedintheireconomicrolesovertime.Whetherwhat

isneededisprovidingaccesstolifelonglearning,supportingcarersorensuringadequateretirementsavings,thefutureofwork(andlife)andthe

financialsystemsthatsupportitneedstobeflexibleandinclusive.

Theworldisatapivotalpoint,onewherethe

longevityeconomyoffersimmensepotential.

Societyhasanopportunitytoproactivelyaddress

thisseismicdemographictransitionandco-designanenvironmentinwhichbothyoungandoldcan

flourish,benefitingall.Aprofoundpublicdebate

aboutthefutureofthelongevityeconomyin

whichasound,resilientpensionsystemisjust

oneaspecthasbeenlargelyabsentfromglobal

discourse.Thispaperaimstopromotethisdialogueandbringtogetherstakeholdersfromthepublicandprivatesectorsandcivilsocietytocollaboratively

exploreinnovativesolutionstofuture-proofthelongevityeconomy.

Future-ProofingtheLongevityEconomy:InnovationsandKeyTrends6

FIGURE1Globalpopulationpyramids

Ages

+100

50-54

0-4

1950200020502100

●Men●Women

NOTE:Medium-fertilityscenario.Onlycountriesandareaswithapopulationofatleast1millionareshowninthelinechart.Theboundaries,colours,

denominationsandanyotherinformationshownonthemapdonotimplyanyjudgementonthelegalstatusofanyterritoryoranyendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.

SOURCE:UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs.(2024).Worldpopulationprospects2024.

/wpp/

–Economicsofcaregivingandlong-term

care:Providingcare,forbothchildrenandolderrelatives,disproportionatelyaffectswomenandhaslong-termimplicationsforfinancialstability.Thissectionhighlightshowsystemsmust

evolvetosupportcaringrolesandaddressgapsinsavingsandincome.

–Pathwaysforeconomicgrowth:Examininghowfinancialsystemsmustadapttosupportpeoplethroughdifferentlifestages,career

changesandcaringresponsibilities,thisfocusareaexploressolutionstohelpbuildboth

financialresiliencefortheindividualandlong-termgrowthfortheeconomy.

Manyreportsonlongevitynaturallyemphasize

healthasanimportantpillar.Thispaper

complementsthatperspectivebyfocusingon

financialresilience,highlightingthesystemictrendsandinnovationsthatcanenableindividualsto

thrive.Additionally,thepaperexploreshowbroadertrendsandchallengesarereshapingthelongevityeconomy.Technologyandartificialintelligence

(AI)aretransformingindustries.Atthesametime,extremeheatandotherclimate-relatedchallengesarealreadyaffectingvulnerablesectorsofsociety.

Finally,lookingaheadtothefutureofthelongevityeconomy,thepaperexamineshowevolvingsocietalattitudestoageing,work,financeandhealthcan

createnewopportunitiesforeverygeneration.

Innovationsandemergingtrendsofthelongevityeconomy

ThispaperbuildsupontheWorldEconomic

Forum’s2024insightreport,

LongevityEconomy

Principles:TheFoundationforaFinanciallyResilient

Future.

Thesectionsandfocusareasoutlinedbelowinvestigatethemultifacetedchallengesandthe

opportunitiesforinnovationstosupporttheworldthroughthissignificantdemographictransition:

–Buildingresilientpublicretirementsystems:Thisfocusareatacklestheurgentneedto

reformpublicretirementsystemsinlightofdemographicchanges,ensuringtheyarefinanciallysustainableandinclusive,and

thattheymeettheneedsofanincreasinglypopulationwithdiverserequirements.

–Fromaccumulationtodecumulation:With

peoplelivinglonger,traditionalretirement

systemsmustberevampedtoensurethat

retirementsavingscansustainindividuals

throughouttheirlifetimes.Thissectionexaminesinnovativesolutionsforturningretirement

savingsintoreliablelifetimeincomeandfocusesonthe“decumulation”phaseofretirement.

–Roleofemployersinfinancialwell-being:

Employerscanplayacrucialroleinenhancingfinancialwell-beingthroughprogrammesthatprovidesupportforemployeesatallstagesoftheirlives.

Future-ProofingtheLongevityEconomy:InnovationsandKeyTrends7

Thereexists

amyriadof

innovativesolutionsthatarereadyto

spread,scaleandadapttodifferentnationaland

sectoralcontexts.

Buildingtowardsamoreinclusiveandfinanciallyresilientfuture

Thesolutionsoutlinedinthispaperprovidea

blueprintforhowsocietiescanembracethe

longevityeconomy.Thetransitionfromalinear

toavariedmultistagelifeapproachwillnotonly

helpimprovequalityoflifeandfinancialsecurity

forindividualsbutalsoharnessthepotentialofanincreasinglyolderworkforcetofuelinnovationandeconomicgrowth.

Thefollowingsectionsexploreachievablestrategiesandbestpractices,offeringavisionforthefutureinwhichfinancialpathwaysaredesignedtosupport

individualsateverystageoftheirlife–helpingto

ensurenotjustfinancialresiliencebutalsofulfilling

careersandmeaningfulparticipationinsociety

throughoutaperson’slifespan.Inmanyways,the

“future”isalreadyhere,asthereexistsamyriadof

innovativesolutionsthatarereadytospread,scaleandadapttodifferentnationalandsectoralcontexts.Thegoalofthisworkistodevelopaworldinwhichpurposefulcontribution,meaningfulconnectionandfinancialresilienceareintegratedthroughoutalllife

stages,creatingnewopportunitiesforengagement,economicgrowthandcollectivewell-being.

Summaryofthesixprinciplesofthelongevityeconomy

TABLE1

Ensurefinancialresiliencethroughimportantlifeevents

Nearly40%ofpeoplegloballyfacefinancialinstabilityafterunplannedcareerinterruptions,including

breaksintheircareers,illnessorunexpectedretirement.11Public–privatecollaborationiscrucialtosupportindividualsnavigatingthesechallenges.

Provideuniversalaccesstoimpartialfinancialeducation

Only33%oftheglobalpopulationisdeemedfinanciallyliterate,12contributingtowealthinequalitiesthatareinturnstronglycorrelatedwithlifeexpectancyinequalities.Comprehensive,impartialfinancialeducationenablesindividualstomakeinformedfinancialdecisions.

Prioritizehealthyageingasfoundationalforthelongevityeconomy

Aroundone-fifthoflifeisexpectedtobelivedwithillness,13with80%ofadultsindevelopingcountriesconcernedaboutthecostofmedicalexpenses.Equitableaccesstohealthservicescanfacilitatewell-beingforboththeindividualandbroadersociety.14

Evolvejobsandlifelongskill-buildingforamultigenerationalworkforce

Globally,upto25%ofindividualsaged55andolderwishtoworkinoldagebutfacebarriersinfindingopportunities.15Demographicshiftsandtechnologyinnovationsrequirejobsandskill-buildingtoadaptandevolve,enablingindividualstoextendtheirworkingyearsasdesired.

Designsystemsandenvironmentsforsocialconnectionandpurpose

Socialconnectionisintegraltohealthylongevity.Sociallyisolatedolderadultshaveahigherriskofpoorhealthandearlierdeath.Designingsystemsandenvironmentsforsocialconnectioncanmitigatetheseimpacts.

Addresslongevityinequalities,includingacrossgender,raceandclass

Thebenefitsoflongevityarenotdistributedequitably.Promotingpayandpensionequity,aswellas

supportforinformalcarers,aresomeofthecrucialstepsthatcoulddelivernecessarychangeinthisarea.

Future-ProofingtheLongevityEconomy:InnovationsandKeyTrends8

1

Buildingresilientpublicretirementsystems

Modernizingpublicretirementsystemstobemoreresilientisnotonlyamoralimperativebutalsoacriticalsteptowardsachieving

economicstabilityandsocialcohesion.

Aspopulationsageandlifespansincrease,

retirementsystemsworldwidefacemountingchallengestoremainsustainableandinclusive.

Withoutsignificantreforms,thesesystemsrisk

insolvency,exacerbatingpovertyamongolderadultsandplacingunduestrainonyoungergenerations.

Future-ProofingtheLongevityEconomy:InnovationsandKeyTrends9

1.1

Resilient

systemscan

beachieved

throughinnovativereformsthat

expandcoverage,ensureequitablecontributionsandalignbenefits

withlong-termdemographicrealities.

Thecaseforaction

Resilientpublicretirementsystemsareessentialforeconomicstabilityand

intergenerationalequity.

Publicretirementsystemsareacornerstoneof

economicsecurity.Aslifeexpectanciesincreaseandbirthratesdecline,thesesystemsfaceunprecedentedchallenges.Addressingthesechallengesrequires

innovativesolutionsthatensurefinancialstability,

intergenerationalequityandinclusionforallworkers,particularlyininformalsectors.

–By2050,theglobalpopulationaged65and

olderwillmorethandouble,reaching1.6billionpeople,creatingunprecedentedpressureon

retirementsystemstosupportlongerlifespans.16

–Morethanhalftheworld’sworkforceoperatesininformaleconomies,withnoaccessto

pensionsorretirementsavings,leavingmillionsunpreparedforfinancialsecurityinoldage.17

–By2060,governmentsgloballycouldface

deficitsaveraging9.1%ofgrossdomestic

product(GDP)ifageing-relatedfiscalpoliciesarenotreformed.Emergingmarketsare

particularlyvulnerable,withpotentialdeficitsreaching15.9%ofGDPcomparedto5.6%inadvancedeconomies.18

Retirementsystemsvarysignificantlyamong

countriesintheirdesign,fundingmechanisms

andrelianceonprivatesavings.CountriessuchasFranceandsomenorthernEuropeannationsrelyontaxation-based,risk-pooledstatepensions,while

theUnitedStatesandmanyemergingeconomiesexpectworkerstoaccruetheirownsavingsthroughprivateretirementaccounts.Thesedifferences

shapethelevelofindividualfinancialresponsibilityandthedegreetowhichgovernmentinterventionisnecessarytoensurefinancialsecurityinlaterlife.

Withoutrobustpublicretirementsystems,

millionsofretireescouldfacepoverty,andthe

broadereconomycouldsufferfromreduced

consumerspendingandincreasedhealthcare

costs.Countriesthatfailtoactriskgrowing

intergenerationaltensionsasyoungerworkers

bearthefinancialburdenoffundingunsustainablesystems.Thesepressuresareparticularlyacuteinemergingmarkets,wherecoveragegapsandfiscalconstraintsexacerbatevulnerabilities.

However,thereisapathforward.Resilientsystems

canbeachievedthroughinnovativereformsthat

expandcoverage,ensureequitablecontributionsandalignbenefitswithlong-termdemographicrealities.

Byintegratingpublicpolicywithprivate-sector

innovations,countriescancreatesustainablesystemsthatmeettheneedsofeveryone.Thesereforms

requireboldaction,cross-sectorcollaborationandacommitmenttoequityandsustainability.19

1.2

Understandingthechallenges

Demographicshiftsand

fiscalstrainarecreating

unprecedentedchallengesforpublicretirementsystems.

Aspopulationsage,thenumberofretireesrelyingonpublicpensionsystemsisincreasingdramatically,

whiletheworking-agepopulation,whose

contributionsfundthesesystems,isshrinking.Thisdemographicshiftplacesimmensepressureon

pay-as-you-gosystemsinwhichcurrentworkers’contributionsfundretirees’benefits.

Combinedwithlongerlifespans,thisdemographicshiftmeansindividualswillrelyonpensionsfor

moreyearsthaneverbefore,strainingpublic

finances.Withoutreforms,manysystemsfacetheriskofinsolvency,jeopardizingthefinancialsecurityofmillions.

Transitioningfromtraditionalpensionmodelstomore

sustainablesystemsis

complexandrequirescarefulmanagement.

Transitionsfrompay-as-you-gosystemstofundedschemes,orfromdefinedbenefitto(collective)

definedcontributionplanscantakeyears,if

notdecades,andnecessitatecompromiseson

intergenerationalredistribution,clearcommunicationandlong-termpoliticalcommitments.

Gradualchangesratherthanabruptshiftsare

necessarytohelpmitigatedisruptionsandallowindividualsandorganizationstoadjusttonew

rulesovertime.Successfulexamples,suchasthecurrenttransitionintheDutchoccupationalsector(seeSection1.3),demonstratethatwiththerightstrategiesthesechallengescan