2025年液化天然气（LNG）前景报告（英文版）

Shell

LNG

Outlook2025

Cautionarynote

ThecompaniesinwhichShellplcdirectlyandindirectlyownsinvestmentsareseparatelegalentities.InthisLNGOutlook“Shell”,“ShellGroup”and“Group”aresometimesusedforconveniencewherereferencesaremadetoShellplcanditssubsidiariesingeneral.Likewise,thewords“we”,“us”and“our”arealsousedtorefertoShellplcanditssubsidiariesingeneralortothosewhoworkforthem.Thesetermsarealsousedwherenousefulpurposeisservedbyidentifyingtheparticularentityorentities.‘‘Subsidiaries’’,“Shellsubsidiaries”and“Shell

companies”asusedinthisOutlookrefertoentitiesoverwhichShellplceitherdirectlyorindirectlyhascontrol.Theterm“jointventure”,“jointoperations”,“jointarrangements”,and“associates”mayalsobeusedtorefertoacommercialarrangementinwhichShellhasadirectorindirectownershipinterestwithoneormoreparties.Theterm“Shellinterest”isusedforconveniencetoindicatethedirectand/orindirectownershipinterestheldbyShellinanentityorunincorporatedjointarrangement,afterexclusionofallthird-partyinterest.

Forward-LookingStatements

ThisLNGOutlookcontainsforward-lookingstatements(withinthemeaningoftheU.S.PrivateSecuritiesLitigationReformActof1995)concerningthefinancialcondition,resultsofoperationsandbusinessesofShell.Allstatementsotherthanstatementsofhistoricalfactare,ormaybedeemedtobe,forward-lookingstatements.Forward-lookingstatementsarestatementsoffutureexpectationsthatarebasedonmanagement’scurrentexpectationsandassumptionsandinvolveknownandunknownrisksanduncertaintiesthatcouldcauseactualresults,performanceoreventstodiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedorimpliedinthesestatements.Forward-lookingstatementsinclude,amongotherthings,statementsconcerningthepotentialexposureofShelltomarketrisksandstatementsexpressingmanagement’sexpectations,beliefs,estimates,forecasts,projectionsandassumptions.Theseforward-lookingstatementsareidentifiedbytheiruseoftermsandphrasessuchas“aim”;“ambition”;‘‘anticipate’’;‘‘believe’’;“commit”;“commitment”;‘‘could’’;‘‘estimate’’;‘‘expect’’;‘‘goals’’;‘‘intend’’;‘‘may’’;“milestones”;

‘‘objectives’’;‘‘outlook’’;‘‘plan’’;‘‘probably’’;‘‘project’’;‘‘risks’’;“schedule”;‘‘seek’’;‘‘should’’;‘‘target’’;‘‘will’’;“would”andsimilartermsandphrases.ThereareanumberoffactorsthatcouldaffectthefutureoperationsofShellandcouldcausethoseresultstodiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedintheforward-lookingstatementsincludedinthisOutlook,including(withoutlimitation):(a)pricefluctuationsincrudeoilandnaturalgas;(b)changesindemandforShell’sproducts;(c)currencyfluctuations;(d)drillingandproductionresults;(e)reserves

estimates;(f)lossofmarketshareandindustrycompetition;(g)environmentalandphysicalrisks;(h)risksassociatedwiththeidentificationofsuitablepotentialacquisitionpropertiesandtargets,andsuccessfulnegotiationandcompletionofsuchtransactions;(i)theriskofdoing

businessindevelopingcountriesandcountriessubjecttointernationalsanctions;(j)legislative,judicial,fiscalandregulatorydevelopmentsincludingregulatorymeasuresaddressingclimatechange;(k)economicandfinancialmarketconditionsinvariouscountriesandregions;(l)

politicalrisks,includingtherisksofexpropriationandrenegotiationofthetermsofcontractswithgovernmentalentities,delaysoradvancementsintheapprovalofprojectsanddelaysinthereimbursementforsharedcosts;(m)risksassociatedwiththeimpactofpandemics,suchas

theCOVID-19(coronavirus)outbreak,regionalconflicts,suchastheRussia-Ukrainewar,andasignificantcybersecuritybreach;and(n)changesintradingconditions.Noassuranceisprovidedthatfuturedividendpaymentswillmatchorexceedpreviousdividendpayments.All

forward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisOutlookareexpresslyqualifiedintheirentiretybythecautionarystatementscontainedorreferredtointhissection.Readersshouldnotplaceunduerelianceonforward-lookingstatements.Additionalriskfactorsthatmayaffectfuture

resultsarecontainedinShellplc’sForm20-FfortheyearendedDecember31,2023(availableat

/investors/news-and-filings/sec-filings.html

and

).Theseriskfactorsalsoexpresslyqualifyallforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisOutlookandshouldbeconsideredbythereader.Eachforward-lookingstatementspeaksonlyasofthedateofthisOutlook,February25,2025.NeitherShellplcnoranyofitssubsidiariesundertakeanyobligationtopubliclyupdateorreviseanyforward-lookingstatementasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherinformation.Inlightoftheserisks,resultscoulddiffermateriallyfromthosestated,impliedorinferredfromtheforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisOutlook.

Shell’sNetCarbonIntensity

Also,inthisOutlookwemayrefertoShell’s“NetCarbonIntensity”(NCI),whichincludesShell’scarbonemissionsfromtheproductionofourenergyproducts,oursuppliers’carbonemissionsinsupplyingenergyforthatproductionandourcustomers’carbonemissionsassociatedwiththeiruseoftheenergyproductswesell.Shell’sNCIalsoincludestheemissionsassociatedwiththeproductionanduseofenergyproductsproducedbyotherswhichShellpurchasesforresale.Shellonlycontrolsitsownemissions.TheuseofthetermsShell’s“NetCarbon

Intensity”orNCIareforconvenienceonlyandnotintendedtosuggesttheseemissionsarethoseofShellplcoritssubsidiaries.

Shell’snet-zeroemissionstarget

Shell’soperatingplan,outlookandbudgetsareforecastedforaten-yearperiodandareupdatedeveryyear.Theyreflectthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandwhatwecanreasonablyexpecttoseeoverthenexttenyears.Accordingly,theyreflectourScope1,Scope2andNCItargetsoverthenexttenyears.However,Shell’soperatingplanscannotreflectour2050net-zeroemissionstarget,asthistargetiscurrentlyoutsideourplanningperiod.Inthefuture,associetymovestowardsnet-zeroemissions,weexpectShell’soperatingplanstoreflectthis

movement.However,ifsocietyisnotnetzeroin2050,asoftoday,therewouldbesignificantriskthatShellmaynotmeetthistarget.

Forward-Lookingnon-GAAPmeasures

ThisOutlookmaycontaincertainforward-lookingnon-GAAPmeasures.Weareunabletoprovideareconciliationoftheseforward-lookingnon-GAAPmeasurestothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasuresbecausecertaininformationneededtoreconcilethosenon-GAAP

measurestothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasuresisdependentonfutureeventssomeofwhichareoutsidethecontrolofShell,suchasoilandgasprices,interestratesandexchangerates.Moreover,estimatingsuchGAAPmeasureswiththerequiredprecisionnecessarytoprovideameaningfulreconciliationisextremelydifficultandcouldnotbeaccomplishedwithoutunreasonableeffort.Non-GAAPmeasuresinrespectoffutureperiodswhichcannotbereconciledtothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasurearecalculatedinamannerwhichis

consistentwiththeaccountingpoliciesappliedinShellplc’sconsolidatedfinancialstatements.

ThecontentsofwebsitesreferredtointhisreportdonotformpartofthisLNGOutlook.

Wemayhaveusedcertainterms,suchasresources,inthisOutlookthattheUnitedStatesSecuritiesandExchangeCommission(SEC)strictlyprohibitsusfromincludinginourfilingswiththeSEC.InvestorsareurgedtoconsidercloselythedisclosureinourForm20-F,FileNo1-32575,availableontheSECwebsite

.

Shellplc

February2025

2

Summary

LNGenablesloweremissions

Withrisingglobaldemand,

LNGisafuelofchoicetoen-sureenergysystemresilience

•DemandforgascontinuestogatherpaceacrossAsia,withChinaandIndiasignificantlyincreasingtheir

regasificationanddownstreaminfrastructure.

•Morethan170milliontonnesofnewLNGsupplyissettocomeontothemarketby2030,helpingtomeet

growinglong-termglobaldemandforgas.Butprojectstart-uptimingsremainuncertain.

•EuropeandJapanwillcontinuetorequireLNGtofillawideninggapbetweenenergydiversificationambi-

tionsandactualinvestmentlevels.

inhard-to-electrifysectorsandpavesthewayfornet-zero

emissions

•TheglobaltradeinLNGissettorisesignificantlyby2040,drivenbyAsianeconomicgrowth,theneedtodecarboniseheavyindustryandtransportandthe

emerginggrowthintheenergy-intensetechsector.

•LNGisbecomingacost-effectivefuelforshippingandroadtransportthatcanbringdownemissions.Longer

term,existinggasinfrastructurecouldbeusedtoimportbio-LNGorsyntheticLNGandalsorepurposedfortheimportofgreenhydrogen.

NegligiblesupplygrowthandresilientAsiandemandkept

priceselevatedin2024

•GlobaltradeinLNGreached407milliontonnesin

2024,anincreaseofjust3milliontonnesfrom2023,thelowestannualsupplyadditionfor10years.

•DemandforLNGstrengthenedinAsiaduringthefirsthalfof2024asChinatookadvantageoflowerpricesandIndiaboughtmorecargoestohelpmeetstrongpowerdemandduetohotsummerweather.

•Europeanimportsfellby23milliontonnes,or19%,duetostrongrenewableenergygenerationandcontinuedweaknessinindustrialgasdemand.

ShellplcFebruary20253

LNGenablesloweremissionsin

1

hard-to-electrifysectorsandpavesthewayfornet-zeroemissions

Theworldcontinuestoneedmorenaturalgas

2024seesrecordgasdemand,2040forecastsrevisedupwards

Natural

BCM

Natural

demand2024-2040

Demanddrivers

Traditionalbiomass,oilandcoalusefall

Gasswitchinginpowersector

Increaseingasesfortransport

DatacentresandAI

Low-carbon

gases

2024-2040

gas

gassupply

BCM

Bio

Coal

Oil

5,000

5,000

4,500

4,500

4,000

4,000

3,500

3,500

3,000

3,000

2024

Domestic*

Pipeline

LNG**

2040

2024

Power

Industry

Buildings

Transport

Other

2040

Source:Shell’sinterpretationofWoodMackenziedata2024

*Indigenousproductionincludesstockbuild,otherlosses;**excludingLNGliquefactionlossesOtherincludesstockchanges,losses,bluehydrogenproduction

ShellplcFebruary20255

LNGdemandgrowsinhard-to-electrifysectors

ClearcostandenvironmentalbenefitsofLNGinmarinetransportation

Marineorderbookforlower-carbonfuelsLNGdemandin

VesselsMTPA

shipping

Reducingmethaneemissionsinshipping

Shareofenginetechnologybygrosstonnage

18

16

3,500

3,000

14

2,500

12

10

8

2,000

1,500

6

1,000

4

500

2

0

0

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

.LNG.Methanol.Hydrogen圓Ammonia■Other

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Bulkers

ContainersCruise

Tankers

PCTC,Ro-Ro,ferries

Others2023forecast

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Inservice

Onorder

Lower-methaneslipenginesHigher-methaneslipengines

Source:Shell’sinterpretationofClarkson’sdata2025,Other:biofuel,CNG,ethane,LPG,nuclear;PCTC:purecar,truckcarrier;Ro-Ro:roll-on/roll-off

Lowermethaneslipengines:2-strokedualfuelslowspeeddiesel(HP)and2-strokedualfuelslowspeedOttoGen2engines;highermethaneslipengines:2-strokedualfuelslowspeedOttoGen1,4-strokemediumspeedOttoandLBSIengines

Shellplc

February2025

6

ProgressinreducingmethaneemissionsinLNGvaluechain

Effortstoachievenear-zerotargetsfor2030

MeasuringmethaneemissionsofLNG

Methaneintensityofupstreamproduction

Japan

87%

87%ofLNGsupplyinOGMP2.0scope

0.2%

Emissions

0.2%orlower

0.35%

0.30%

0.25%

0.20%

0.15%

0.10%

0.05%

0.00%

2017201820192020202120222023

CollectivemethaneintensityofOGCI*members

SouthKorea

92%

92%ofLNGsupplyinOGMP2.0scope

0.2%

Emissions

0.2%orlower

Source:Shell’sinterpretationofOilandGasClimateInitiative(OGCI)progressreport2024,UNEnvironmentProgramme’sInternationalMethaneEmissionsObservatory2024data*OilandGasClimateInitiativemembers(~30%oftotalglobaloilandgasproduction);emissionsareestimatedtobewithinorbelow0.2%fromwellheadtoLNGloadingarm

ShellplcFebruary20257

Liquefiedbiomethanewillplayagrowingroleintransport

LNGdeliversGHGsavingsandsupportsfuturecompliance

Biomethaneproduction

BCM

20

18

16

13%CAGR

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

EuropeNorthAmerica

LNGbunkeringportsShippingGHGintensitytargets

gCO2e/MJ

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2%

bio-LNG

29%bio-LNG

79%bio-LNG

2020202520302035204020452050

●Availabletoday●Underdevelopment——FuelEUGHGintensitylimitLNGintensity

Source:Shell’sinterpretationofS&PGlobal,,SEA-LNGandFuelEUMaritimedata

ShellplcFebruary20258

LSG:usingexistingLNGinfrastructuretoachievenetzero

CandelivertheenergytosupplyallindustrialdemandinUSA&Japan

Liquefiedsyntheticgas(LSG)productionprocess

CO2fromdirectaircapture,

circularCO2and,inthe

interim,industrialCO2

Surplusrenewable

electricity

RenewableenergyElectrolysisMethanation

ExistinggasandLNGinfrastructure

Gasdemand

Power

Homes

Industry

Vehicles

Shipping

Regasification

Shipping

Storedandexported

asLSG

Transmission

anddistribution

ShellplcFebruary20259

priceselevatedin2024

2

NegligiblesupplygrowthandresilientAsiandemandkept

LNGspotpricesstrengthenedthroughout2024

2024AsiaLNGspotprices*

Q2Δ

Recordheat

inIndiastretched

coalgeneration

capacity,drivingincrease

inspotLNGpurchases,

despiteelevatedprices

$/MMBtu

Q1Opportunisticbuying

inQ1asmildwinterand

highinventoriesoffered

attractiveprices

forendusers,

mostlyinChina

Pricesbelowhighsof2021-2023butunexpectedfactorsfuelledvolatility

15

13

11

9

7

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Q3

Delayedconstruction

ofnewLNGplantsand

decliningdomestic

productioninEgypt

reducedglobalsupply

Q4

Ongoingthreats

ofRussianpipelinesupply

curtailmentviaUkraine

andweakEuropean

storage-fiIltriggered

scarcityfears

Q1Q2Q3Q4

Source:ShellinterpretationofS&PGlobalCommodityInsightsdata

*DailyJapan/KoreaMarker(JKM)prices

Shellplc

February2025

11

2024sawlowestgrowthinLNGexportcapacityin10years

Growthrestrictedbygasproductiondeclinesandconstructiondelays

ChangeinglobalLNGexports*2024(YoY)MTPA

GlobalLNGexportcapacityadditions

MTPA

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5-1.0

-1.5-2.0

-2.5-3.0

Russia

Nigeria

Malaysia

USA

Mozambique

Cameroon

PapuaNewGuinea

TrinidadandTobago

Algeria

Egypt

20

15

10

5

0

20202021202220232024

Source:ShellinterpretationofKplerandWoodMackenziedata

*Representsfreeonboard(FOB)volume;YoY:year-on-yearcomparison

Shellplc

February2025

12

StrongAsiandemandcomesatEurope’sexpense

TheshortfallinlocalsupplymadeEgyptanetLNGimporterin2024

ChangeinLNGimports*2024(YoY)MTPA

LNGimportgrowthvsforecast2024(YoY)

MTPA

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

China

India

Egypt

SouthKorea

Brazil

Netherlands

Belgium

France

Spain

UnitedKingdom

TotalLNGtrade*:407MT

Egypt

Europe

China&India

-25-20-15-10--5051015

ActualConsultantforecastrangein2023

Source:ShellinterpretationofKpler,S&PGlobalCommodityInsights,WoodMackenzieandPoten&Partnersdata

*Representsdelivered,ex-ship(DES)volume;YoY:year-on-yearcomparison

ShellplcFebruary202513

LNGshippingrateshitrecordlowdespitecanalbottlenecks

TankercapacityoutpacedLNGsupplyincreasesduetoprojectdelays

USLNGexportstoAsia

%oftotal,bytransitroute

LNGtankervsliquefaction

%changeYoY

capacity

AverageLNGtankercharterrates*

$1000s/day

2023

2024

38%

25%

37%

6%

9

1%3%

PanamaCapeofGoodHopeSuez

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

2021202220232024

LNGshippingcapacityLNGexportcapacity

500

400

300

200

100

0

JanMarMayJulSepNov

2019-2023range2024

Source:ShellinterpretationofKpler,S&PGlobalCommodityInsights,WoodMackenzie,andFGEdata

*Averageofshippingdailyratesoftri-fueldieselelectricand2-stroketankers

ShellplcFebruary202514

ChineseLNGdemandrecoverynears2021peak

Spotbuyingremainedsteadybutwasreactivetoprice

gas

ChangeinChina’s

BCM

balanceChina’sLNGimports

MTPAShare

China’sspotLNGimportsJKM

MT$/MMBtu

430

420

410

400

390

380

370

360

2023

Domesticprod

Pipedimports

LNGimports

2024

Power

Buildings*

Industry

Transport

2023

Supplychanges

Demandchanges

90

75

60

45

30

15

0

20202021202220232024

aLNGimportsoShareofglobaltotal

5

30%

4

24%

3

18%

2

12%

1

6%

0

0%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

15

12

9

6

3

0

2020-23spotimportsrange2024spotimports

2024JKM

Source:ShellinterpretationofS&PGlobalCommodityInsightsandKplerdata

*buildingsincluderesidentialandcommercialdemand

ShellplcFebruary202515

India’sLNGimportshitrecordlevelin2024

Summerheatwavedrovestrongspotbuyingdespiteelevatedprices

gas

ChangeinIndia’s

BCM

balanceIndia’sannualLNGimports

MTPAShare

India’sspotLNGimportsJKM

MT$/MMBtu

68

67

66

65

64

63

62

61

60

59

58

2023

Domesticprod

LNGimports

2024

Power

Industry

Buildings*

Transport

2023

Supplychanges

Demandchanges

30

24

18

12

6

0

20202021202220232024

aLNGimportsoShareofglobaltotal

2

10%

1.6

8%

1.2

6%

0.8

4%

0.4

2%

0

0%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020-23spotimportsrange2024spotimports

2024JKM

15

12

9

6

3

-

Source:ShellinterpretationofS&PGlobalCommodityInsights,KplerandWoodMackenziedata

*buildingsincluderesidentialandcommercialdemand

ShellplcFebruary202516

Europefacestightgasbalancedespiteweakdemand

LowerinventoriesandlesswindgenerationintensifiedneedforLNGinQ4

gas

ChangeinEurope

BCM

balanceRussian

BCM

pipelineexporttoEurope

Europegasstorage

%full

440

430

420

410

400

390

380

370

2023

Storagechange

Russianpipes

Otherpipes

Domesticprod

LNG

2024

Power

Buildings

Industry

Others*

2023

Supplychanges

Demandchanges

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

LosingUkrainetransitcreates~10MTPA

supplygapin2025

20242025

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Consultantforecastrangeforend-winterstoragelevels

TurkStream

BlueStream

2024

2025

Ukrainetransit2019–2023range

2019–2023average

Source:ShellinterpretationofGasInfrastructureEurope,WoodMackenzie,andBloombergNEFdataEuropeincludesUK+EU27,excludingCyprus

*Includesbluehydrogen,transportandpipelineexports

ShellplcFebruary202517

NewLNGsupplylimiteduntilsecondhalfof2025

Europe’sneedtorefillgasstoragewillcompetewithAsiandemand

ForecastLNGsupplygrowth2025(YoY)

MTPA

30

25

17-26MTPA

20

15

10

5

0

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Total

High

Low

Consultantforecastrange

Source:ShellinterpretationofS&PGlobalCommodityInsights,WoodMackenzieandEnergyAspectsdata

ForecastLNGdemandgrowth2025(YoY)

MTPA

30

25

20

15

10

5

17-26MTPA

0

AsiaEuropeOthersTotal

Consultantforecastrange(total)

ShellplcFebruary202518

LNGisafuelofchoicetodeliverenergysystemresilience

3

Withrisingglobaldemand,

LNGsupplygrowthiscoming,buttimingremainsuncertain

Newprojectdevelopmentfacesmultiplechallenges

GlobalLNGsupplyforecastevolution

MTPA

~30MTPA

550

475

400

Reducedsupplyforecastintwoyears,equivalenttoIndia’sLNGimportsin2024

20242025202620272028

2022forecast2023forecast2024forecast

Delayfactors

Geopolitical

tensions

Regulatory

hurdles

Start-up

risks

Civilunrest

Labour

shortages

Supplychainbottlenecks

2025-28globalLNGsupplyforecastrange

MTPA

60

40

2023

forecast

20

020242025202620272028

High

2024Actual

ConsultantforecastrangeLow

Source:ShellinterpretationofS&PGlobalCommodityInsights,WoodMackenzieandEnergyAspectsdata

Shellplc

February2025

20

RegasificationcapacityinAsia

MTPAUtilisationrate

850

75%

60%

750

45%

650

550

30%

450

15%

350

0%

202020222024202620282030

OperationalApproved

Underconstruction

Capacityutilisationrate

InfrastructureinvestmentsignalsstrongLNGgrowthinAsia

ExpansioninChinaandIndiasettodrivegreatergasuse

Populationconnectedtogasgrid

MillionpeopleShareoftotal

LNG-fuelledheavy-dutytruckfleet

Milliontrucks

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

~180millionmorepeoplewillhaveaccesstogasgrid

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

~30MTPALNGequivalent

202020242030

202020242030

ChinaIndia

IndiaChinaAsshareoftotal(China+India)

Source:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenzie,WorldBank,S&PGlobalCommodityInsights,andNationalInstitutionforTransformingIndiadata

Shellplc

February2025

21

LNGprovidesenergysecurityintransitioningmarkets

EuropeanUnionandJapanfallingshortofpolicyaims

uegasbalance

EuropeandJapanpolicyaims

REPowerEUambitionsvsindustryforecasts

500

400

300

200

100

0

Supplygap

Solar

(GW)

Wind

(GW)

Heat

pumps

(mln)

520

210

600

385

220

480

Hydrogen

(MTPA)

0.2320

224060

6thEnergyPlanambitionsvsindustryforecasts

Nuclear