管理会计（第10版） 课件 Chapter 9 Managing risk

Chapter9ManagingriskManagementAccountingforDecisionMakersTenthEditionLEARNINGOUTCOMESYoushouldbeableto:IdentifyandevaluatethemostpopularapproachestoriskassessmentfoundinpracticeExplainthenatureofriskandtheimportanceofconsideringriskwhenmakingdecisionsDiscussthepopularityanduseofthevariousapproachestoriskassessmentfoundinpracticeExplainhowtheoutcomesfromassessingriskcanbeusedRiskandinvestmentdecisionsRelativelylongtimescalesareinvolvedLargescalefundsareofteninvolvedMethodsofdealingwithriskininvestmentappraisalScenarioanalysisExpectedvaluesSensitivityanalysisRisk-adjusteddiscountrateOperatingcostsProjectNPVFinancingcostInitialoutlaySalespriceAnnualsalesvolumeProjectlifeFigure9.1FactorsaffectingthesensitivityofNPVcalculationsFigure9.2ThesensitivityanalysisprocessIdentifythebestestimateforeachinputfactorDerivetheNPV(orotherresult)usingthoseestimatesTakejustonefactorandalteritsvalue,inanegativedirection,untiltheNPV(orotherresult)iszeroRepeatthepreviousstepforeachinputfactorAssessthevulnerabilityoftheprojecttothepossibilitythattheactualvalueforeachinputfactorwillvaryfromitsbestestimateConsiderthelevelofconfidencethatthemoreriskyfactorsmightcausetheprojecttofailMakeadecisiontakingaccountoftheNPV(orotherresult)andperceivedrisk,basedonthesensitivityanalysisFigure9.3NPVsensitivityanalysisoftheMinadoBarrosolithiumprojectSource:SavannahResourcesplc(2018)ScopingStudyfortheMinadoBarrosoLithiumProjectDeliversNPVofUS$356mSolidBasistoFastTracktheProjecttoaFeasibilityStudy,Figure9,p.23.Cashflow

(amongstotherssales,EBITDA,

EBIT)17%40%15%Costofcapital(includingsustainablegrowthrate)28%Both,cashflow

andcostofcapitalNosensitivitiesFigure9.4ConsiderationofsensitivitiesSource:AdaptedfromCostofCapitalStudy2018,KPMG,Figure6,p.11,2018.https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/ch/pdf/cost-of-capital-study-2018.pdf

Cashflows(a)Probability(b)Expectedcashflows(a

b)

£

£Option1800,0000.6480,000Option2120,0000.112,000Option3400,0000.3120,000Expectednet

cashflowsineachyear

612,000ENPVapproachFigure9.5ThedifferentpossibleprojectoutcomesfortheZetaproject(Example9.3)Outcome1Outcome2Outcome3Outcome4Year1(0.6)Year2(0.6)Year1(0.4)Year2(0.4)Year1(0.4)Year2(0.6)Year1(0.6)Year2(0.4)80,00080,00080,000120,000120,000120,00080,000120,000Cashflow

£0.6×0.6=0.360.4×0.4=0.160.4×0.6=0.240.6×0.4=0.24ProbabilityTotal1.00Assigningprobabiliti