2025全球投资战略：经济衰退迫在眉睫+A+Recession+Is+Imminent

March6,2025

GlobalInvestmentStrategy

ExecutiveSummary

USTradePolicyUncertaintyHas

SurgedToTheHighestLevelOn

Record

ARecessionIsImminent

StrategyReport

InthisIssue

•wera,sedour12>monthus

2TheUSEconomy:recess,onprobab,l,tyfrom65%

LessResilientThanto75%follow,ngtheelect,on

BeforelastNovember.TodayBweare

3AboutThatAtlantarea般rm,ngtheseodds.weexpecta

FedEstimaterecess,ontomostl,kelybeg,nw,th,n

6JustALittlethenextthreemonths.

Disruption?•Althoughthemetr,cstheNBER

7Dogeballtrackstodeterm,nerecess,onstart

8NonlinearitiesNeardatesst,lllookedreasonablyben,gn

theKink,nJanuaryBmorerecentdatasuggest

8TheRiskofanFCIthattheuseconomy,sreach,ngstall

DoomLoopspeed.

9Europe:CurbYour•convent,onalest,matesunderstate

Enthusiasmthel,kely,mpactoneconom,c

13MacroQuantSoursact,v,tyfromthetradewarand

onStocksDoGEcuts.Th,s,mpl,esthatgrowth

w,llslowmorethanexpected.

•Thep,ckup,nmanufactur,ngact,v,ty

outs,detheusw,llnotlastbecause

,thasbeenlargelydr,venbythe

front>runn,ngof,mportpurchaseseBCResearch2025

aheadoftar,fs.

•onecandebatewhether,ncreasedfiscalspend,ng,nEuropew,llboostgrowthover

themed,um>to>long>termBbut,ntheneartermBtheprospectoflargerbudgetdefic,ts

hasledtoat,ghten,ngoffinanc,alcond,t,onsviah,gherbondy,eldsandastronger

euro.

EditorialBoard•ourMacroQuantmodelfurthercut,tsrecommendedallocat,ontoequ,t,es,nthefirst

frlitrategistfewdaysofMarch.cons,stentw,thourownsubject,vev,ewB,t,snowunderwe,ght

stocks.

MelanieKermadjian

ManagingAnalyst

BottomLine:Theuseconomy,ssettoenterarecess,onw,th,nthenext

fewmonths.stayunderwe,ghtequ,t,esandoverwe,ghtcash.Lookto,ncrease

fixed>,ncomedurat,onexposureoverthecom,ngmonths.Theeuro,sl,kelyto

strengthenandEuropeanstocksshouldoutperformusstocksoverthenext

monthorsoBbutthesetrendsw,llreversebythem,ddleofth,syear.

MiroslavAradski

AssociateVicePresident

ChanhyuckLee

ResearchAnalyst

AllenLi

ResearchAnalyst

AyaanSohhel

ResearchAssociate

MathieuSavary

ChiefEuropeanStrategist

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GlobalInvestmentStrategy

StrategyReport

ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

ARecessionIsImminent

TheUSEconomy:LessResilientThanBefore

Recess,onsoftenbeg,nwhenaneconomybecomesvulnerabletoadownturnand,sthenh,tbyashock.oncethathappens,

feedbackloopstyp,callyemergethatre,n-forcethedownwardpressureongrowth.Today,theusfinds,tselfonthevergeofsuchacascadeofbadeconom,cnews.

contrarytopopularpercept,on,theus,satgreaterr,skofarecess,onthan,twas,nearly2022.Backthen,whenwewerest,llopt,m,st,congrowth,theuseconomyhadplentyof,nsulat,onaround,t:Jobopen-

,ngswereplent,ful;householdsheldmorethan$2tr,ll,on,nexcesssav,ngs;and

manyhomeownershadrefinancedthe,rmortgagesatverylowrates.

Threeyearslater,that,nsulat,onhaswornth,n:Thejobopen,ngsratehasreturned

topre-pandem,clevels;excesssav,ngs

havebeendepleted;and18%ofmortgagescarryarateabove6%,upfrom4%of

mortgages,nearly2022(Chart1).Mean-wh,le,cred,tcard,autoloan,andcommer-c,alrealestatedel,nquenc,eskeepr,s,ng

(Chart2andTable1).consumerconfi-dencehasnose-d,ved.Layofannounce-

mentshavesp,ked.Newhome,nventor,esareatthe,rh,ghestlevels,nceAugust

2009(Chart3).

CHART1

TheJobOpeningsRateHasReturnedToPre-PandemicLevels,Excess

SavingsHaveBeenDepleted,AndMortgagesAreExpensive

2025

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CHART2

DelinquenciesAreRisingForCreditCardsAndAutoLoans...

2025

"SHOWNASA4-

AboutThatAtlantaFedEstimate

TheAtlantaFed’sGDPNowmodelest,matesthatGDP,sontracktodecl,neby2.4%,n

Q1(Chart4).Th,s,salmostcerta,nlytoopess,m,st,c.

Importsjumped,nJanuary,nant,c,pat,onof,ncreasedtar,fs.conceptually,h,gher

,mportsshouldnotreduceGDP,ftheyalsoshowup,nconsumpt,on,,nvestment,or

,nventor,es.Perhapsduetodatal,m,ta-

t,ons一espec,ally,nthecaseof,nventor,es一theo般c,alstat,st,csdonotappeartofullycapturethewhereaboutsofthose,mports.Th,s,spart,cularlytrueforgold,mports,

wh,chhavesurgedoutoffearthatTrump

w,lllevyatar,fonbull,onsh,pments(ashehasalreadydoneor,sthreaten,ngtodoformanyothercommod,t,es).

TABLE1

…AndInTheCommercialRealEstateSector

MONTH

CREDiQOVERALLDISTRESSEDRATESBYPROPERTYTYPE*

DELINQUENTAND/ORSPECIALLYSERVICEDLOANS

OFFICEMULTIFAMILYRETAILHOTELINDUSTRIAL

SELF

STORAGE

*ASOFFEBRUARY28,2025.SOURCE:CREDiQ.

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ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

CHART3

consumerconfidenceHasNose-Dived,JobLayoffsAreup,AndNewHome

InventoriesAreElevated

2025

25

AsofJanuary,w,ththeexcept,onofreal

consumerspend,ng一wh,chmayhave

beend,stortedbybadweather一theser,es

CHART4

TheAtlantaFed’sGDPNowModelEstimatesThatGDPIsOnTrackToDeclineBy2.4%InQ1

2025

2025

trackedbytheNBERd,dnotyetpo,ntto

anoutr,ghtrecess,on(Chart5).Thatsa,d,growthappearedtohaveslowedfurther,n

February,asev,dencedbythedecelerat,on,nGoldman’scurrentAct,v,tyInd,cator.

Andw,ththefull,mpactofthedouble-shockofthetradewarandDOGEcutsyettocome,,t,sh,ghlyl,kelythatgrowthw,llslowevenmore.Th,sw,lltranslate,ntofall,ngpayrollsandr,s,ngunemploymentdur,ngthesecondquarterofth,syear.

InourAnnualOutlook,wepostulatedthat

therecess,onwouldbeg,n,nMay2025.Thatst,llfeelsr,ghttous.

GlobalInvestmentStrategy

StrategyReport

ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

CHART5

withTheExceptionofRealconsumerspending,TheseriesTrackedBYTheNBERDoNotyetSignalARecession

*SOURCE:BUREAUOFECONOMICANALYSIS(BEA).

**SOURCE:BUREAUOFLABORSTATISTICS(BLS).

***SOURCE:BUREAUOFLABORSTATISTICS(BLS).LATESTDATAPOINT

REMOVESTHEEFFECTSOFTHEJANUARY2025POPULATIONUPDATEFROMTHECENSUSBUREAU.

NOTE:ZERODENOTESBUSINESSCYCLEPEAKSOFDECEMBER1969,

NOVEMBER1973,JANUARY1980,JULY1981,JULY1990,MARCH2001,ANDDECEMBER2007.DATAINCURRENTCYCLEALIGNEDASSUMINGBUSINESSCYCLEPEAKOCCURREDINDECEMBER2024.THEFIRSTMONTHOFA

RECESSIONISTHEMONTHFOLLOWINGTHENBER-DEFINEDBUSINESS

CYCLEPEAK.REBASEDTO0%ATTHEBUSINESSCYCLEPEAK.

2025

*SOURCE:BUREAUOFECONOMICANALYSIS(BEA).

**SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVE.

NOTE:ZERODENOTESBUSINESSCYCLEPEAKSOFDECEMBER1969,NOVEMBER1973,JANUARY1980,JULY1981,JULY1990,MARCH2001,ANDDECEMBER2007.

DATAINCURRENTCYCLEALIGNEDASSUMINGBUSINESSCYCLEPEAKOCCURREDINDECEMBER2024.THEFIRSTMONTHOFARECESSIONISTHEMONTH

FOLLOWINGTHENBER-DEFINEDBUSINESSCYCLEPEAK.REBASEDTO0%ATTHEBUSINESSCYCLEPEAK.

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ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

JustALittleDisruption?

Mostconvent,onalest,matesfindthath,ghertar,fsw,llhaveonlyamodestcontract,onaryefectonusgrowth.Th,s,snotsurpr,s,ng,

g,venthattheus,safa,rlyclosedeconomy一goodsexportsand,mportsaccountfor

only6.9%and11.1%ofGDP,respect,vely.

Nevertheless,westronglysuspectthat

convent,onalest,matesunderstatethel,kelygrowthh,ttotheusfromh,ghertar,fs.

Therearethreema,nreasonsforth,s.

F,rst,mostest,mates,gnorethesupply-s,de

efectsofh,ghertar,fs,focus,ng,nsteadon

thedemand-s,de,mpl,cat,onsofr,s,ng,mportpr,cesonreal,ncomes.Thesupply-s,de

,mpactofh,ghertar,fscouldturnouttobequ,telarge.Morethanhalfoftrade,nNorth

CHART6

IntermediateGoodsConstituteThe

Lion’sShareOfNorthAmericanTrade

BCOResearch2025

SOURCE:CANADIANCHAMBEROFCOMMERCE,DATALAB(2023).

Amer,ca,s,n,ntermed,ategoods(Chart

6).Theauto,ndustry,swellknownfor,ts

complexsupplycha,nwh,chspansMex,co,canada,andtheus.However,thereare

manylesser-knownexamples.For,nstance,about8o%ofsem,conductorsmanufacturedintheUSundergoadvancedtest,ngand

assemblyatIBM’sfac,l,ty,nBromont,Quebec.

second,thehaphazardwaythatthetar,fs

arebe,ngrolledouthascreateds,gn,ficantuncerta,ntyamongthepubl,candthebus,-nesscommun,ty.TheTradePol,cyuncer-

ta,ntyIndexhassurgedtotheh,ghestlevelonrecord(Chart7).TheIMFhasdocu-

mentedthatuncerta,ntyovertar,fpol,cy

canhaveasdamag,nganefectongrowthasthetar,fsthemselves.

CHART7

USTradePolicyUncertaintyHas

surgedToTheHighestLevelonRecord

BCαResearch2025

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GlobalInvestmentStrategy

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ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

CHART8

TheFedHasLessScopeToPermitAnotherInflationovershoot…

2025

Th,rd,h,ghertar,fsw,lltemporar,lypushup,nlat,on,mak,ngtheFedlessw,ll,ngtocutrates.In2o18,whenTrumplaunched

thefirsttradewar,thePCEdelatorwas6%belowwhere,twouldhavebeen,f,nlat,onhadaveraged2%s,nce2oo8(Chart8).

Today,thePCEdelator,s1.2%above,tslong>termtrendl,ne.Th,smeansthattheFedhaslessscopetoperm,tanother,nla>t,onovershoot,espec,ally,fsurvey>based,nlat,onexpectat,onsr,sefurther,astheyalreadyhave,ntheun,vers,tyofM,ch,gansurvey(Chart9).

CHART9

…EspeciallyIfsurvey-BasedInflationExpectationsRiseFurther

2025

Dogeball

Asw,thtrade,convent,onalest,matesunder>stateDOGEcsl,kely,mpactontheusecon>omy.Thetyp,calest,mate,nvolvestak,ng

the,ncomelostbysomeonefiredfrom

the,rgovernmentjobandcomput,ngtheknock>onefectsonaggregatedemand.

Asanexampleofhowtheseconvent,onal

est,mateswork,supposeafiredworker

rece,vesasalaryof$1oo,oooand,ssubjecttoa3o%,ncometaxratewh,lespend,ng

9o%ofthe,rafter>tax,ncome.Forevery

dollarof,ncomelost,thatworkercsspend,ng

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StrategyReport

ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

woulddropbyo.7*o.9o,or63cents.S,nce

oneperson’sspend,ng,sanotherperson’s

,ncome,fortheeconomyasawhole,thetotalloss,ndemandwouldbe$1oo,ooo*(o.63/1-o.63)orroughly$17o,ooo.

Not,cethatth,sest,mate,mpl,c,tlyassumesthatDOGE’sact,onsdonothaveanyefect

onsav,ngsbehav,or.Th,s,salmostcerta,nlyfalse.Thecapr,c,ousnatureofDOGE’s

dec,s,on-mak,nghassentach,llthrough

the1om,ll,onorsoworkerswhorelyonthegovernmentforthe,rl,vel,hoods(Chart10).Iftheseact,onscauseworkerstol,ftprecau-t,onarysav,ngs,the,mpactonaggregate

demandcouldbefarlargerthantyp,callyassumed.

NonlinearitiesNeartheKink

ThefactthattheuSlabormarket,snear

thek,nk,ntheBever,dgecurve一thepo,nt

whereanyfurtherdecl,ne,njobopen,ngs

wouldcorrespondtor,s,ngunemployment一addstother,sks(Chart11).

Ins,tuat,onswhereprecaut,onarysav,ngs

r,se,nresponsetoasoften,nglabormarket,a$1decl,ne,n,ncomecouldleadtoagreaterthan$1decrease,naggregatedemand.

Th,scouldproduceanouts,zedh,ttoGDP.Indeed,,t,sposs,bleforaggregatedemandtofallpermanentlyeven,ftheshockto

,ncome,stemporary(Chart12).

wh,lethere,snoguaranteethatsuchanoutcomew,lloccurth,st,mearound,,t,sacred,bler,sk.Asev,dence,notethatthesav,ngsratejumpedfrom3.5%to4.6%,nJanuary,thelastmonthofava,labledata.

CHART10

Roughly10MillionWorkersEither

workForTheFederalGovernmentorRelyonGovernmentcontracts

2025

SOURCE:PLEASESEEPAULC.LIGHT,"THETRUESIZEOFGOVERNMENTISNEARINGARECORDHIGH,"BROOKINGSINSTITUTION(OCTOBER,7,2020).

TheRiskofanFCIDoomLoop

Ther,skthatfall,ngspend,ngleadstoless,ncome,result,ng,nevenlowerspend,ng,,soneexampleofafeedbackloopthatusuallyemergesdur,ngeconom,cdownturns.Butthere,sanotherfeedbacklooptoworry

about一onethat,spart,cularlypert,nenttoday:afeedbackloop,nvolv,ngfinanc,alcond,t,ons.

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ARecessionIsImminent

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CHART11

JobopeningsAreNearThe"kink"InTheBeveridgecurve

2025

UNEMPLOYMENTRATE(%)

Usfinanc,alcond,t,onshavet,ghtened

s,ncelastseptember,ma,nlybecauseof

the,ncrease,nbondy,elds.Asaresult,the,mpulsefromfinanc,alcond,t,onstoGDPgrowthhasmovedfromata,lw,ndtoa

modestheadw,nd(Chart13).

Look,ngout,ther,sk,sthatfinanc,alcond,>t,onst,ghtenfurther.Desp,tetherecent

decl,ne,nstockpr,ces,thes&P5oo,sst,ll

trad,ngatelevatedlevelsrelat,vetoearn,ngs,sales,andbookvalue(Chart14).Cred,t

spreadsarealsonearh,stor,clows,even

thoughdefaultrateshaver,sen(Chart15).

Afurtherdecl,ne,nequ,typr,cesalongs,deaw,den,ng,ncred,tspreadswouldleadto

at,ghten,ng,nfinanc,alcond,t,ons.T,ghterfinanc,alcond,t,ons,,nturn,wouldleadto

slowergrowth,therebycaus,ngequ,typr,cestofallandcred,tspreadstow,denfurther.

Europe:CurbYourEnthusiasm

InvestorshavegottenbulleduponEuro>

peanstocks.TheMsCIeuroarea,ndex,sup11.9%,nlocal>currencytermsand16.3%,nUsdollartermss,ncethestartoftheyear.

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AD

AD

CHART12

Double-crossed:MultipleEquilibriaInAkeynesianDemandModel

STANDARDKEYNESIANDEMANDMODEL

AD1

Inastandardkeynesiandemandmodel,

theeconomyconvergestowardsastable

equilibrium(E1).TotheleftofE1,aggregate

demand(AD)exceedsoutput(y),implying

E1

AD2

thatinventoriesarefalling.Thisleadstomoreproduction.TotherightofE1,inventories

arerising,whichleadstolessproduction.

E2

Iftheeconomyishitbyanegativedemand

shock,theaggregatedemandcurvewillshiftdownfromAD1toAD2.Theeconomywillthenconvergetowardsasecondstableequilibrium(E2).

45°

Y

MULTIPLEEQUILIBRIA

AD

KEYNESIANDEMANDMODEL

EH

underamultipleequilibriamodel,the

economycanconvergetowardstwostable

U

equilibria:Ahigh-incomeequilibrium,EH,andalow-incomeequilibrium,EL.Forexample,

whenaggregatedemandisbelowoutput,

asisthecasebetweenELandtheunstable

EL

equilibrium,u,inventoriesarerising,leadingtolessproduction.

45°

Y

AD

EH

AD1

AD2

MULTIPLEEQUILIBRIA

KEYNESIANDEMANDMODEL

IfaneconomyatEHishitbyan

adverseshock,theaggregatedemand

curvewillshiftdownfromAD1

toAD2.Eventually,theaggregate

EL

demandcurveshiftsbackuptoits

originalposition,buttheeconomy

stillremainsatthelow-income

equilibrium.

45°

Y

Y3

Y2

Y

Y1

MULTIPLEEQUILIBRIAKEYNESIANDEMANDMODEL

Y1

Y3

Y2

2025

TIME

11

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GlobalInvestmentStrategy

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ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

CHART14

Thes&p500IsExpensive

CHART13

TheImpulseFromFinancial

conditionsToGrowthHasMovedFromATailwindToAModest

Headwind

2025

Twoforceshavedr,ventherebound.F,rst,recentdataonEuropeanmanufactur>

,ngact,v,tyhavecome,nstrongerthan

expected.second,Trumpcs,solat,on,stpol,>c,eshavegalvan,zedEurope,nto,ncreas,ngfiscalspend,ng,espec,allyondefense.

W,threspecttobetterEuropeanmanufac>tur,ngdata,ourstrongsusp,c,on,sthat

muchofthe,mprovementhasbeendr,ven

bytar,ffront>runn,ng.Domest,cdemand

2025

rema,nsanem,c,asev,dencedbythesurpr,s>,ngdrop,nreta,lsalesacrosstheeuroarea

,nJanuary.

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ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

CHART15

creditspreadsAreNearHistoricLows,EvenThoughDefaultRatesHaveRisen

2025

*OPTION-

Asfarasfiscalspend,ng,sconcerned,onecandebatewhether,tw,llboostgrowthoverthe

med,um>to>longterm.Increased,nfrastructurespend,ngw,llcerta,nlyhelp.However,h,gherdefensespend,ng,wh,le,mportantfornat,onalsecur,ty,w,llnotaugmenttheeconomycs

supply>s,decapac,ty.

Debtsusta,nab,l,ty,salsoaconcern.AlthoughGermanyhastheab,l,tytospendmore,

CHART16

EuropeanFinancialConditionsHaveTightenedInRecentDays

2025

governmentdebt,salreadyover1oo%ofGDP,nFrance,Italy,spa,n,andtheuk.

Inanycase,,nthenearterm,theprospectoflargerbudgetdefic,tshasledtoat,ghten,ngoffinanc,alcond,t,onsviah,gherbondy,eldsandastrongercurrency(Chart16).Th,s,sl,kelytowe,ghongrowth.

MacroQuantSoursonStocks

ourMacroQuantmodelfurthercut,ts

recommendedallocat,ontoequ,t,es,nthefirstfewdaysofMarch.cons,stentw,th

ourownsubject,vev,ew,themodel,snow

13

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ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

underwe,ghtstocks(Chart17).Adeter,o>rat,on,nthegrowthand,nlat,oncompo>nentswasthema,ndr,verofthedowngrade(Chart18).

wh,lethemodel,stact,callyneutralondurat,on,nfixed>,ncomeportfol,os,,t,smorepos,t,veondurat,onr,skovera12>monthhor,zon.weagreew,ththemodelcsassessment.

Themodelexpectstheusdollartocont,nueweaken,ngoverthenextfewmonths.It

tact,callyprefersnon>usstocks(espec,ally

theeuroarea)overtheus.weconcurw,th

themodelcsnear>termcurrencyandreg,onalequ,tyallocat,onv,ewsbutcaut,onthatthesetrendsarel,kelytoreversebythem,ddleofth,syear.

CHART17

MacroQuantIsNowunderweightstocks

2025

14

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ARecessionIsImminent

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CHART18

ADeteriorationInTheGrowthAndInflationcomponentswasTheMainDriverofTheDowngradeToTheEquityscore

2025

PeterBerezin

ch,efGlobalstrateg,st

peterb@

Followmeon

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March6,2025

GlobalInvestmentStrategyViewMatrix

TheGlobalInvestmentStrategyteam(GIS)summarizesitsviewsviaamatrixfeaturingrecommendationsovera

tactical1-to-3monthhorizonandacyclical6-to-12monthhorizon.WhileGISusestheMacroQuantmodelasoneofseveralinputsintoitsdecision-makingprocess,theGISviewsshowninthismatrixmaydiferfromtheMacroQuantmodel'srecommendationsshowninthededicatedmonthlyMacroQuantreports.

GlobalInvestmentStrategyViews

1-To-3Month

6-To-12Month

GlobalAssetAllocation

-0+-0+

Equities

FixedIncome

Cash

GlobalEquities(Region)*-0+-0+

US

EuroArea

UK

Canada

Australia

Japan

EM

-0+

0+

-

GlobalEquities(Sectors)*

CommunicationServices

ConsumerDiscretionary

ConsumerStaples

Energy

Financials

HealthCare

Industrials

InformationTechnology

Materials

RealEstate

Utilities

-0+

0+

-

GlobalFixedIncome**

Government

InvestmentGrade

HighYield

Duration

InflationProtection

0+

-0+

-

Currencies***

USD

EUR

GBP

CHF

JPY

CAD

AUD

EMCurrencies

-0+

0+

-

Commodities(vsUSD)

Energy

Base/BulkMetals

Gold

LEGEND:

–CURRENT

口–PREVIOUS

1(MOSTLEFT)–STRONGSELL

2–SELL

3–NEUTRAL

4–BUY

5(MOSTRIGHT)–STRONGBUY

*RELATIVETOMSCIACWI(CURRENCYUNHEDGED).

**RELATIVETOBLOOMBERGGLOBALAGGREGATE(CURRENCY-HEDGED).

***INTRADE-WEIGHTEDTERMS.

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ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

SpecialTradeRecommendations

Th,stableprov,destraderecommendat,onsthatmaynotbeadequatelyrepresented,nthematr,xonthepreced,ngpage.

Trade

Inception

Level

Initiation

Date

Return-To-Date*StopLoss

Comments

MacroQuantSectorSelectorModelTradeRecommendation:LongTop-RankedSector/ShortBottom-RankedSector**

(LongSPDRCommunicationServicesETF(XLC)/ShortSPDRRealEstateETF(XLRE))

100

Jan31/2025

-5.0%

Rolledovereach

monthbasedonthe

latestMacroQuant

MonthlyUpdate

report**

LongSPDRS&P500ETF(SPY)June30,2025PutContract(StrikePrice$550)

$11.00

Nov8/2024

31.0%

Forhedging

purposes

LongiShares20+YearTreasuryBondETF(TLT)

$88.87

Sept26/2023

8.0%-10%

Closedhalfofthe

positionfora7.6%

gainonDecember

12/2024

ShortUSDJPY

144.82

June29/2023

-11.0%None

Long-termTrade;

returnsincludecarry

ShortBitcoin***

$63,267

Oct21/2021

34%

None,butkeep

theposition

smalltominimize

risk

SpecialShorting

Technique***;closed

halfoftheposition

fora97.6%gainon

May10/2022

*THEMARK-TO-MARKETCALCULATIONSAREBASEDONTHECLOSEOFEVERYWEDNESDAY,EXCEPTTHESPYPUTTRADEWHICHISBASEDONTHETHURSDAYCLOSE,ANDTHEBITCOINTRADEWHERETHECALCULATIONISBASEDONTHEMARKETPRICEOFBITCOINAT4:00PM(EST)THURSDAY.

**THETRADEISUPDATEDANDROLLEDOVEREACHMONTHBASEDONSECTORSELECTOR'SRECOMMENDATIONS,WHICHAREPUBLISHEDINTHELATESTMACROQUANTMONTHLYUPDATEREPORT.

HISTORYOFRECOMMENDATION:LONGXLF/SHORTXLP(JAN31,2025REPORT).

***THEPERFORMANCEOFTHESHORTBITCOINTRADEISMEASUREDUSINGASHORTINGTECHNIQUEDESCRIBEDINTHEGLOBALINVESTMENTSTRATEGYREPORTTITLED“HOWTOSHORTBITCOIN,ORANYTHINGELSE,WITHOUTLOSINGYOURSHORTS,”DATEDAPRIL30,2021.

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GlobalInvestmentStrategy

StrategyReport

ARecessionIsImminent

March6,2025

ArchiveofpreviousReports^GlobalInvestmentstrategy

Pleaseclickonthelinksbelowtoviewreports:

1.MacroQuantModelUpdate:Crossroads-February28,2025

2.HowMuchDoesTheRestOfTheWorldOweAmerica-February20,2025

3.EuropeIsNoLongerAValueTrap-February14,2025

4.MacroQuantModelUpdate:LivingDangerouslyNearTheKink-January31,2025

5.StillOnTheTightrope-January23,2025

6.GeopoliticalStrategy:FiveBlackSwansFor2025-January10,2025

7.TheUSStockMarketRallyIsRunningOutOfFuel-January9,2025

8.MacroQuantModelUpdate:RisingBondYieldsAndStretchedValuationsPoseRisksToStocks-January3,2025

9.WhatElseToRead?AcademicEdition-December18,2024

10.StrategyOutlook:DispatchesFromTheFuture(January2,2026):The2025Recession-December12,2024

11.MacroQuantModelUpdate:IntroducingMacroQuantMultiverseEdition-November29,2024

12.TheRisksOfAFiscalCrisis-November15,2024

13.RaisingOurUSRecessionProbabilityFollowingTrump’sVictory-November8,2024

14.MacroQuantModelUpdate:EveryoneHasAPlanUntil…-October31,2024

15.TheSimpleEconomicIdentityHauntingChina-October24,2024

16.FiveMythsOfTheUkraineWar-October17,2024

17.HasTheUSLaborMarketTurnedTheCorner?-October10,2024

18.MacroQuantModelUpdate:IsThisTimeDifferent?-September30,2024

19.FourthQuarter2024StrategyOutlook:SoftLandingOrQuicksand?-September27,2024

20.Japan: