外资物流类企业在中国的选址决策研究

外资物流类企业在中国的选址决策研究提纲1.简介2.计量模型及数据来源3.回归结果4.结论和启示2001年物流成本占中国GDP的20%左右.物流外包业务在过去三年中拓展25%以上(BoltonandWei2003).一些城市致力于成为区域级物流中心城市.1.简介

自从90年代初以来,巨大的市场潜力吸引了大批外资物流公司进驻中国(Hong,ChinandLiu2004).该研究的目的/主要贡献:研究外商直接投资在一个转轨经济中的选址行为

了解外资物流企业的选址决定因素

探讨公司特质对其选址的影响提纲1.简介2.计量模型及数据来源3.回归结果4.结论和启示计量模型：假定公司ｉ在城市ｊ的利润方程为：如果随即变量独立地、等同地服从Weibull分布,公司ｉ选择城市ｊ的概率为:数据来源：（1）公司水平数据：

全国第二次基本单位普查，2001（2）城市水平数据：

中国城市统计年鉴，1993-2002

中国交通统计年鉴，1993-2002中国统计年鉴，1993-2002中国城市年鉴，1993-2002ProvinceCityNumberProvinceCityNumberBeijingBeijing77GuangdongGuangzhou135TianjinTianjin220

Shenzhen168LiaoningShenyang11

Zhuhai29

Dalian58

Shantou5

Yingkou9

Foshan12ShandongJinan14

Jiangmen7

Qingdao61

Zhanjiang5

Yantai7

Heyuan6

Rizhao

5

Qingyuan5ShanghaiShanghai637

Dongguan14JiangsuNanjing40

Zhongshan6

Wuxi6

Shaoguan13

Suzhou44

Chaozhou7

Nantong14HainanHaikou18

Zhenjiang8HubeiWuhan12

Lianyungan5ChongqingChongqing12ZhejiangNingbo9SichuanChengdu7

Hanzhou6YunnanKunming6AnhuiHefei

5XinjiangWulumuqi5FujianFuzhou20

Xiamen47

表1.外资物流类企业在1992至2001年间的分布表2．被解释变量的定义和描述VariablesSymbolDefinitionMeanMini.MaxiTransportfactorsBERTHDUM1forseaport;0forothers

0.500.001.00

LROADENNLofurbanroadwaydensity

2.38

-2.61

5.57

LROADEN1NLofprovincialroaddensity

3.45

0.30

4.36

LRAIDEN1NLofprovincialrailwaydensity

-0.25

-2.52

1.92MarketsizeLINDOUT1NLofprovincialindustrialoutput

8.55

4.64

9.55LPRIVATE1NLofprovincialpercentageofprivateemployment

0.98

-1.83

3.38Laborconsideration

LTECHPOPNLofurbanpercentageoftechnicalworkers

-3.80

-6.50

0.00AgglomerationeconomiesLTERTNLofemploymentpercentageofthetertiaryindustry

3.60

2.56

4.29

LFDINLofnumberofFDI

5.751.798.66Government’spolicyFTA1forfreetradezone;0forothers

0.23

0.00

1.00

CAPITAL1forBeijingorthecapitalofaprovince;0forothers

0.53

0.00

1.00提纲1.简介2.以前的研究3.计量模型及数据来源4.回归结果5.结论和启示VariablesParametertvalueBERTHDUM:Seaport(dummyvariable)0.55***5.05LROADEN:roaddensityinthecity0.30***6.83LROADEN1:roaddensityintheprovince0.141.18LRAIDEN1:railwaydensityintheprovince0.48***9.74LINDOUT1:provincialindustrialoutput0.41***6.42LPRIVATE1:privateemploymentpercentage0.25***4.12LTECHPOP:technicalworkerspercentage0.22***4.17LTERT:employmentpercentageofthetertiaryindustry0.28*1.65LFDI:numberofforeigndirectinvestments0.43***9.63FTA:freetradezones(dummyvariable)0.66***5.07CAPITAL:capitalcities(dummyvariable)0.35***3.01Observations1775Log-likelihood-4575RestrictedLog-likelihood-6548

2

adjusteda0.301模型回归结果表3外资企业特质对选址的影响:外资公司的选址决策因素可能会随着时间的推移而改变(Zhouetal.2002)FDI选址因素可能会随着其来源地区的不同而改变(He2003)独立公司（或总部）和分公司的选址考虑因素可能会不同(IhlanfeldtandRaper1990;Ono2003)

BranchIndependentBERTHDUM:Seaport(dummyvariable)0.71***0.41***LROADEN:roaddensityinthecity0.44***0.24***LROADEN1:roaddensityintheprovince-0.220.40***LRAIDEN1:railwaydensityintheprovince0.38***0.51***LINDOUT1:provincialindustrialoutput0.38***0.40***LPRIVATE1:privateemploymentpercentage0.19*0.26***LTECHPOP:technicalworkerspercentage0.030.29***LTERT:employmentpercentageofthetertiaryindustry-0.270.43**LFDI:numberofforeigndirectinvestments0.67***0.33***FTA:freetradezones(dummyvariable)-0.291.24***CAPITAL:capitalcities(dummyvariable)1.38***-0.20Observations5451230Log-likelihood-1446-3081RestrictedLog-likelihood-2010-4537

2

adjusteda0.2800.321表四.外资物流企业选址:组织结构的影响

Non-HMTHMTBERTHDUM:Seaport(dummyvariable)0.69***0.46***LROADEN:roaddensityinthecity0.29***0.35***LROADEN1:roaddensityintheprovince-0.140.38**LRAIDEN1:railwaydensityintheprovince0.83***0.24***LINDOUT1:provincialindustrialoutput0.51***0.40***LPRIVATE1:privateemploymentpercentage0.15*0.27***LTECHPOP:technicalworkerspercentage0.23***0.18***LFDI:numberofforeigndirectinvestments0.44***0.40***FTA:freetradezones(dummyvariable)0.41**0.99***CAPITAL:capitalcities(dummyvariable)0.59***0.07Observations863912Log-likelihood-2127-2389RestrictedLog-likelihood-3184-3364

2

adjusteda0.3320.290表五.外资物流企业选址:来源地区的影响

pre-1997after1997BERTHDUM:Seaport(dummyvariable)0.38**0.97***LROADEN:roaddensityinthecity0.020.34***LROADEN1:roaddensityintheprovince-0.141.06***LRAIDEN1:railwaydensityintheprovince0.54***-LINDOUT1:provincialindustrialoutput0.52**0.08**LPRIVATE1:privateemploymentpercentage-0.000.51***LTECHPOP:technicalworkerspercentage0.30***0.08LFDI:numberofforeigndirectinvestments0.55***0.50***FTA:freetradezones(dummyvariable)1.32***-0.38**CAPITAL:capitalcities(dummyvariable)-0.271.27***Observations7651010Log-likelihood-2067-2499RestrictedLog-likelihood-2822-3726

2

adjustedb0.268