产量潜力与产量差研究进展及其对绿色增长的启示

产量潜力与产量差研究进展及其对绿色增长的启示为什么研究作物产量潜力与产量差？我国三大作物单产变化（1）作物产量提升空间还有多大？作物和区域之间有多大差异？（2）限制产量提升的主要技术途径等是什么？中国农业统计年鉴，2016缩小产量差58%改变饮食结构28%其它途径（减少储存损失、浪费等）14-94%未来保证粮食安全的主要途径进一步提高单产是绿色增长的需求！农业部关于大力开展粮食绿色增产模式攻关的意见日期：2015-02-04发布单位：农业部种植业管理司目标任务：努力实现“三个提高”，提高土地产出率，力争到2020年粮食单产平均每年提高1个百分点；提高劳动生产率，力争到2020年重点粮食作物耕种收综合机械化率提高10个百分点；提高投入品利用率，力争到2020年化肥、农药利用率提高到40%以上，农田废旧地膜回收率达到80%以上。努力实现“两个零增长”，力争到2020年，实现粮食和农业生产的化肥、农药使用量零增长。研究进展研究概况主要进展小麦产量差案例2.主要启示主要内容“Yieldpotential”“Yieldgap”产量潜力和产量差文章发表统计46%（基于Webofknowledge数据库，2016/08/08）70%文章发表杂志TopJournalSub-topJournalKeyJournalNatureNatureCommun.FieldCropRes.Agric.Syst.Agron.J.------Annu.Rev.Environ.Resour.GCBCurrentOpinioninEnvironmentalSustainability经典文章列单Muelleretal.,2012.Closingyieldgapsthroughnutrientandwatermanagement.Nature490,254-257.Foleyetal.,2011.Solutionsforacultivatedplanet.Nature478,337-342.Grassinietal.,2013.Distinguishingbetweenyieldadvancesandyieldplateausinhistoricalcropproductiontrends.NatureCommunications4,2918.Rayetal.,2012.Recentpatternsofcropyieldgrowthandstagnation.NatureCommunications3,187-190.Lobelletal.,2009.Cropyieldgaps:Theirimportance,magnitudes,andcauses.AnnualReviewofEnvironmentandResources34,179-204.Cuietal.,2013.Closingtheyieldgapcouldreduceprojectedgreenhousegasemissions:acasestudyofmaizeproductioninChina.GlobalChangeBiology19,2467-2477.Liuetal.,2012.MaizepotentialyieldsandyieldgapsinthechangingclimateofnortheastChina.GlobalChangeBiology18,3441-3454.VanIttersumetal.,2013.Yieldgapanalysiswithlocaltoglobalrelevance-areview.FieldCropsResearch143,4-17.Fischeretal.,2015.Definitionsanddeterminationofcropyield,yieldgaps,andofratesofchange.FieldCropsResearch182,9-18.Fischeretal.,2014.Cropyieldsandglobalfoodsecurity—willyieldincreasecontinuetofeedtheworld?In:ACIARMonographNo.158.AustralianCentreforInternationalAgriculturalResearch,Canberra.研究进展研究概况主要进展小麦产量差案例2.主要启示主要内容（1）相关概念界定进一步清晰YIELDGAPVanIttersumandRabbinge,1997DefinitionsYieldpotential(Potentialyield)-Yp:yieldofacropcultivarunderdefinedweatherconditions,whengrownwithnonutrientandwaterstressandbioticstresseseffectivelycontrolledWater-limitedyield-Yw:sameasYp,butwatersupplyislimiting(andhencesoiltypeandtopographymatter)Actualyield–Ya:Average(past5+years)yieldachievedbyfarmersinagivenregionunderdominantmanagementpracticesandsoilpropertiesYieldgap–Yg:differencebetweenYp(orYw)andYaCropwaterproductivity–WP:ratiobetweenyieldandseasonalwatersupply(PAWatplanting+in-seasonrainfall+irrigation–PAWatharvest)MartinvanIttersumandKenCassman,2011Liuetal.,2016,Agron.J.Itisdefinedhereastheyieldattainedbyafarmerfromaveragenaturalresourceswheneconomicallyoptimalpracticesandlevelsofinputshavebeenadoptedwhilefacingthevagariesofweather.Althoughitisnoteasytoestablishanappropriateattainableyield,generalexperiencesuggeststhatitwillbe~20–30%belowPYinsituationswhereworldpricesandreasonabletransportcostsoperate.EconomicyieldExploitableYG（2）研究方法进一步明确，并趋向标准化第一届产量差会议第二届产量差会议（北京，2011.8.31-9.1）（武汉，2014.4.8-9）FieldCropsResearch专刊主题：Yieldgapanalysis-Rationale,methodsandapplications-IntroductiontotheSpecialIssuePotentialyield各级产量水平的测定PYasdefinedhereisobtainedfromtwosources:comparativevarietytrialsandsinglevarietyexperiments.ThesecondsourceofPYdatacomesfromcarefulfieldexperimentsconductedbycropphysiologists,oftentocalibrateand/orvalidatecropsimulationmodelsthatarelargelydrivenbysolarradiation,temperatureandwatersupplyappliedtokeycropphysiologicalprocesses.CropmodellingisthenoftenusedtopredictPYinotherenvironments.AttainableyieldAlthoughitisnoteasytoestablishanappropriateattainableyield,generalexperiencesuggeststhatitwillbe~20–30%belowPYinsituationswhereworldpricesandreasonabletransportcostsoperate.Fischeretal.,2014.CropyieldsandglobalfoodsecurityHowgoodisgoodenough?Datarequirementsforreliablecropyieldsimulationsandyield-gapanalysisGrassinietal.,2015,FCRInfavourableenvironments,10yearsofweatherdataaresufficienttoestimateanaverageyieldandCVthatarewithin±10%oftheestimatesobtainedwiththeentire30-yeardatabase.Thenumberofrequiredyearsincreasesto15to20yearsinlessfavourableenvironments.Hence,dependinguponwatersupply,10(irrigatedorfavourablerainfedenvironments)to20yearsofdailyweatherdata(harshrainfedenvironments)areneededforreliableestimates.GYGA：Agro-climaticzonesEwertetal.,2011,AEEFromfieldtoatlas:upscalingoflocation-specificyieldgapestimatesVanBusseletal.,2015,FCREstimatednationalwater-limitedyieldpotentialswerefoundtoberobustifdatacouldbecollectedthatarerepresentativeforapproximately50%ofthenationalharvestedareaofacrop.Inasensitivityanalysisforrainfedmaizeinfourcountries,assumingonly25%coverageofthenationalharvestedcroparea(torepresentcountrieswithpoordataavailability),nationalwater-limitedyieldpotentialswerefoundtobeover-orunderestimatedby3to27%comparedtoestimateswiththerecommendedcropareacoverageof≥50%.产量潜力模拟/about-us/2011-present：243papersRelativevariationbetweenobservedandaverageyieldsimulatedwithnrandomlyselectedmodelsamong19at4worldsites,asafunctionofn.Bassuetal.,2014,GCBLietal.,2014,GCBUncertaintiesinpredictingriceyieldbycurrentcropmodelsunderawiderangeofclimaticconditions（3）不同尺度研究结果取得重要进展全球国家和区域尺度农户Muelleretal.,2012,NatureRayetal.,2012,NatureCommun.Cuietal.,2013,GCBLiuetal.,2012,GCBHochmanetal.,2013,FCRVanIttersumetal.,2013Zhaoetal.,2015,FCR研究进展研究概况主要进展小麦产量差案例2.主要启示主要内容NENW-RNW-INCP-INCP-RMLYSWNortheastChina(Springwheat,Rainfed)NorthwestChina(Winterwheat,Irrigated)NorthChinaPlain(Winterwheat,Irrigated)MiddleandlowerreachesoftheYangzeriver(Winterwheat,Rainfed)SouthwestChina(Winterwheat,Irrigated)NorthChinaPlain(Winterwheat,Rainfed)NorthwestChina(Winterwheat,Rainfed)Sevenwheatagro-ecologicalsubregionsinChinaLiuetal.,2016,Agron.J.YieldpotentialestimationbasedonfieldmeasurementsHighestrecordedyield:searchedfromliteratures,primarilygeneratedbyagronomistsinhighyieldingorvarietytestingexperiments.548datapointsfrom213sitesalloverChina.Attainableyieldestimationaccordingtothebestfarmers’yieldBestfarmers’yield:themeanyieldof94thto99thdecileoffarmers’yield,227bestfarmers’yieldfrom4552farmsurveys.Averagefarmers’yieldassessmentbasedonthefarmsurveyPotentialYield(PY)AttainableYield（AY）AverageFarmers’Yield(FY)3.4tha-19.0tha-18.0tha-15.6tha-12.4tha-1WheatyieldpotentialandyieldgapinthewholeChinaFY/PY=62%FY/AY=71%Liuetal.,2016,Agron.J.研究进展研究概况主要进展小麦产量差案例2.主要启示主要内容一、未来提高产量潜力，缩小产量差靠什么？Fischeretal.,2014.Cropyieldsandglobalfoodsecurity增产途径历史作物产量变化气候变化可能在10年后导致全球饥荒在考虑干旱、缺水、气温过高和对玉米生长有影响的其它四个因素气候模型后,到2030年,当前的玉米品种将无法在非洲绝大多数国家正常成长。新玉米品种由育种家育成、农场主掌握平均需要20到30年,届时非洲的气候变化将以更快速度进行。因此,学者们警告,如果现在不开始研发适应“新环境”生活的新玉米品种,那么在未来30到40年内,等待地球的将是粮食危机。我国小麦和玉米的产量潜力和产量差产量潜力农户产量产量差80%产量潜力增产潜力增产比率16.5Mgha-17.9Mgha-18.6Mgha-113.2Mgha-15.3Mgha-167%9.0Mgha-15.6Mgha-13.4Mgha