金融危机的国际经验及现实思考

WorldwideLessonsfromFinancialCrises

金融危机的国际经验及现实思考VinodThomas,Director-General&SeniorVicePresidentIndependentEvaluationGroup,WorldBankChinaCenterforEconomicResearchPekingUniversityFebruary19,2009TableofContentsTheCrisisPolicyResponsesOutlook2I.TheCrisisThesub-primemortgagebubbleintheUSwasthedetonatorofthecurrentcrisisTheextensiveuseofderivativesmadetheexposuretothemortgagecrisisexplosiveThechainreactionwasglobalizedbecauseof:ThelinksamongthefinancialsectorsinOECDandemergingcountriesThehighdependenceofinternationaltradeonUSdemand3TheextentofdamagesofarDeepeningrecessionsincemid-2008withmultipledownwardsrevisionsofgrowthContagionfromthedevelopedtoemergingandlessdevelopedeconomiesDownwardcyclethroughTradeandweakeningdemandCapitalflowRemittanceCommoditypriceReinforcingexpectationforglobaldepressionanddeflation4Thesharpestglobaldeclinesince1970GDPGrowth5BothOECDandemergingmarketsfall–nodecouplingSource:WorldDevelopmentIndicators2008andIMFWorldEconomicOutlookUpdate,January28,2009

6DramaticfallinAsia’srapidgrowthChina:Growthpracticallygroundtoahaltin2008Q4--Annualgrowthratein2009expectedtofallto6.7%from9.0%in2008Exportsplunged17.5%year-on-yearinJanuary2009—thelargestdropinalmost13yearsImportsdown43%year-on-year,partlyexplainedbyadjustmentininventory.Singapore’sGDPfellatanannualizedrateof17%andSouthKorea’sat21%inQ42008Industrialproductioninthe12monthstoDecember,2008isdown21%inJapan,14%inSingapore,19%inSouthKoreaSource:IMFWorldEconomicOutlookUpdate,January28,20097ExportsandcapitalflowscrumbleChinaJordanMexicoIndiaSource:NationalAgenciesthroughThomson/Datastream.Source:InstituteforInternationalFinance:“CapitalFlowsToEmergingMarketEconomies.”01/27/09.Exports(Volumes,Change%3mmay/y)PrivateNetCapitalFlowstoEmergingEconomies

8HightradeshareswithsharpdeclinesinGDPgrowth…

(currentepisode)Source:WorldDevelopmentIndicators2008andIMFWorldEconomicOutlookUpdate,January28,2009

9…AlsohightradeshareswithstrongrecoveryofGDPgrowth

(pastepisodes)Source:WorldDevelopmentIndicators2008Note:CrisiseventsareArgentina(1999-2002);Indonesia,Korea,Russia,Thailand,andBrazil(1997-1998);Mexico(1994)andTurkey(2000-2001)10II.PolicyResponsesPolicyresponseShort-termLong-termCountrylevelSimilarresponsesacrosscountries—FiscalandmonetarypoliciestostimulateaggregatedemandDiverseresponsesdependingontheinitialconditions—savingrates,currentaccountbalanceSustainablegrowth—poverty,environment,educationGlobalresponseCoordinatedresponses—bankingsector,financialsystem,liquidity,interestrates,opentraderegimeInternationalpolicycoordinationmechanisms—surveillance,environment,climatechangeAframeworkforassessment11FiveAreasforActionFiscalTrade

PovertyEnvironmentConsumptionInvestmentsLiquidityFinancialsystemMarketconfidenceSustainablegrowthSocialstabilityharmonyTermsoftradeValuechainCRISISFinancial12Financialsector

Fire-fightingandbeyondOftenreceiveearlyattentionU.S.Housingmarket:3millionforeclosures(2008)U.S.Bankingsector:$1-$2trillionnetcostofbailoutWorldstockmarkets:Almost50%lossinthetotalcapitalizationin2008--$30trillionofwealthdisappearedNeededmeasures:AdequateprudentialregulationswiththeincreasingsophisticationanddynamismofglobalmarketsCapturethefullriskimplicationsofsecuritizedmortgageloansandderivativesSounddevelopmentofthefinancialsectorindevelopingcountries13Fiscalpolicy

EffectiveeconomicstimulusStimuluspackages–astarkdifferencefromthe1990sUS:Taxcutsandpriorityinvestments–around$800bnJapan:Threepackages--$112bnGermany:Twopackagesforinfrastructure,taxcuts,cleanenergy--$106bnUnitedKingdom:VATreduction,capitalspending-$27.8bnChina:Infrastructure,housing--$586bnIndia:Exportincentives,guarantees,refinancefacility--$4.1bnShort-termvs.long-termchoices:CountrieswithlowornegativesavingsneedmorethansustainedfiscalstimulustoemergefromthecrisisCountrieswithhighsavingsratescancombinetheshort-termfiscalstimuluswithalonger-termexpansionarypolicy14TradePolicy

AvoidingthedangerofclosinginThemultipliereffectsoftheslowdownthroughthetradesystemChina:Decreasedexportdemand,20millionmigrantfactoryworkerswithoutjobsMomentumtowardsprotectionismgainsforceincrisesUSA:“BuyAmerican”requirementsRussia:raisedtariffonimportedcarsIndia:5%dutyonselectsteelandironproductsArgentinaandBrazil:approvedtariffsonwineandtextilesChina:increasedexport-taxrebateson3,700goodsProtectionismwillworsentheglobalcontractionStronginternationalcommitmenttoresistclosingincritical15Poverty

Nottobeseenasanafter-thoughtSocialandpovertyimpactofcrisesshouldbeanticipated1%reductioninGDPtrapsanother20millionpeopleinpoverty,100millionmorepeopleinpovertywiththeglobalrecessionMillionsliveveryclosetothepovertyline,soevensmallGDPchangesproducevastswingsinpovertyPastresponsestocrisesignoredpovertyimpactintheearlystagesMoreattentionneededtovulnerablegroups—potentialareafortheWorldBankGrouptocontributeImpactonimmigrantlabor:Foreignanddomesticmigration,remittances16Environment

The“Cinderella”ofthecrisis?Tensionsbetween:Short-andlongtermobjectives—economicrecovery,mitigation,adaptationDomesticandglobalobjectives—globalpublicgoodsThesetensionsincreaseincrisisperiods30-50%reductioninwindandsolarinstallationsinU.S.SupportforclimatefundsunderthreatintheEUandelsewhereDangerofbacktrackingonenvironmentalpolicies17FivelessonsfromresearchEarly,rapidandsizeableresponsesarekeySocialsafety-netandpro-poorpoliciesneedsupportfromtheoutsetPoliciesneedtoaccountforbehaviorandthepoliticaleconomyImmediateresponsescannotignoreimplicationsfordevelopmentGlobalcrisisneedsaglobalsolution—targetstimuliwherethemarginalimpactwillbethegreatest**HowtoSolvetheGlobalEconomicCrisis—JustinYifuLin,SeniorVicePresidentandChiefEconomist,WorldBank18SevenlessonsfromevaluationEmphasizenotonlyvolume,butalsoqualityFocusonpovertyfromtheoutsetBuildintheenvironmentandclimatechangeSeekselectivityandadaptabilityofresponseStresscoordinationamongpartnersFocusonmonitoringandevaluationOrganizeforearlywarning19TheWorldBankGroupandthecrisisTheWBGhasakeyrolethrough:FinancialsupportPolicyadviceandknowledgesharingCatalyticroleincross-countrypolicycoordinationHelpingtobalancenationalandglobalgoalsLongtermpartnershipwithcountries,evenwhenitsshareinrescuepackagesismodest20IV:Outlook:Uncertaintyatanall-timehigh21

“…allconsequentialeventsinhumanhistoryhavecomefromunexpected,rareoccurrences” NassimNicholasTalebUnusualTimes22Tripledanger

Economic,social,environment

GlobaleconomicdownturnOutlookhighlyuncertainThetimingoftherecoverydependscriticallyonpolicyactionsRisingpovertyworldwideThesituationexacerbatedbygrowingunemploymentClimatecrisisEnvironmentaldevastationandglobalwarmingcanderailallprogress

Thiscouldbeaninflectionpointforourplanet

Anewdevelopmentparadigmisneeded

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Whenacrisispromptsaction

危机–DangerandOpportunityBrazil’sfiscalresponsibilitylaw;India’s1991reforms;Korea’sfinancialsectoractions….ChinarevitalizedaftertheAsiancrisisLiberalizationofthehousingmarketEasingrestrictionsonprivatizationofmediumSOEsAccelerationoftheentrytoWTOInvestmentinreleasingbottlenecks--highway,portfacility,telecommunication,higheducationChinatoday…Opportunitiesinhumancapital;privatesector;openness;infrastructure*Newwaysofgreeninvestments*DavidDollar,Sustaininggrowth:China’sneedforanewgrowthmodel,November19,200824LookingtoglobalopportunitiesOpportunityoffiscalstimulustoimproveinvestmentsTargethighgrowthareasImproveefficiencyandraiseproductivityPromotegreeninvestments

OpportunityofpoliticalsupportduringcrisistoreformthedomesticeconomyFinancialandregulatoryreformAddresslongtermmacroimbalancesMaintainopentradepoliciesDeepensocialsafety-netandinclusivegrowthBreakthroughintheenvironmentandclimatechangeOpportunityforglobalactionsInternationalregulatoryframeworkfortrade,investmentandfinanceGlobalactiononclimate,e