英文 2024年全球休闲旅游产业复兴前瞻-趋势洞察与增长策略报告

Global

Leisure

Perspectives

2024Examiningtherevivalofthetraveland

leisureindustry,offeringinsights,trends,andstrategiesfor

growth.KPMG

Internationalkpmg.cominorganicgrowth,performanceimprovement,technologyenablementandcustomer-centricity.KPMG’sglobalnetworkofprofessionalsworkswithtravel

and

leisure

companies

—and

their

investors,

suppliersandecosystempartners

—invirtuallyevery

sectorandgeographyaroundtheworld.

Wehelpthemfacesomeoftheirgreatestchallenges,plan

andexecuteamazingtransformationsandunlock

unprecedentedvaluecreationopportunitiestohelp

travelandleisurecompaniesgrowandthriveinchallengingenvironments.Giventhisdepthofexperienceandinsightsavailable

acrossournetwork,Iaskedmycolleaguesaround

theworldtosharetheirinsightsonthesefourkeytopics—inorganicgrowth,performanceimprovement,

technologyenablementandcustomer-centricity.

Iaskedthemtoproviderealexamplesofclientexperiences.Iencouragedthemto

sharechallengesandopportunities.

Ichallengedthem

toprovidereaderswithactionabletakeawaysandnext

steps.

Andtheydelivered.Thetravelandleisuresectorisslowlybouncingback

fromthechallengesofCOVID-19,highinflationandeconomicuncertainty.Globalinvestmentinthesector

is

expected

to

rise25percent

this

year(year-on-year)

.1

Hotelsareenjoyingrecord-highrevenuesper

availableroom

.2

Globaltravelandtourismrevenuesare

projected

to

rise

by8.3percent

in2024—to

reachnearly

US$1trillion.Yetmanychallengespersist.

Inmostmarkets,interest

ratesremainhigh—impactingthecostoffinanceandleadingtoconcernsaboutpotentialrecessions.

Consumerconfidence,whileupfromthelowsof2022,remains

below

the

long-term

average.3

Global

economicgrowthisanemiccomparedtothedecade

priortothepandemic.4Inthisenvironment,travelandleisureorganizations

andinvestorsarelookingforopportunitiestounlock

value,drivegrowthandbuildcustomerrelationships.

Andthatisleadingtoafocusonfourkeyareas:Thispublicationisintendedtohelptravelandleisuresectorexecutivesanddecision-makerssurfacenewideasandexploreexistingopportunitiestodrive

growth.Inthisreport,

youwillfindarticlesonawide

rangeofimportanttopics

—supportedbyactionable

insightsandexamplestohelpyouunlockgrowthina

challengingenvironment.Ihopeyoufindthestories

inspiringyetpractical.Onbehalfofmycolleaguesaroundtheworld,I

encourage

you

to

contact

any

of

the

authors

listed

in

thispublicationoryourlocalKPMGfirmtolearnmore

aboutthesetopicsortofindouthowKPMGcanhelp

yourorganization.Foreword1

JonesLang

LaSalle

IP,“2024GlobalHotelInvestmentOutlook“,

January2320232

Ibid.3

OECD,“Consumerconfidenceindex(CCI)“,

January20244

OECD,“OCEDEconomicOutlook,

Volume2024Issue

1“,

May2024Will

HawkleyLead

of

Global

Leisure&HospitalityKPMGInternationalPartner,KPMG

inthe

UKwill.hawkley@kpmg.co.uk©2024CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentities

provide

noservicestoclients.

Allrights

reserved.About

KPMG’s

Travel

and

Leisure

networkGlobal

Leisure

Perspectives2024

|2Performance

improvementTechnology

enablementInorganic

growthCustomer

focus04

2434

46

62ContentsPerformanceTechnologyCustomerAbout

KPMG’s

Travelimprovementenablementfocusand

Leisurenetwork©2024CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentities

provide

noservicestoclients.

Allrights

reserved.InorganicgrowthGlobal

Leisure

Perspectives2024

|3Dealactivityinthetravel

andleisuresectorremains

downfromthe

highsof2021.Yetsigns

ofa

revivalare

emerging.

Inthissection,professionalsfromKPMG’snetworksharetheirinsightsintotheresurging

M&Amarket

globally

with

spotlights

oncurrentinorganicgrowthtrends

in

China,India,JapanandGermany.Inorganic

growth©2024CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentities

provide

noservicestoclients.

Allrights

reserved.About

KPMG’s

Travel

and

Leisure

networkGlobal

Leisure

Perspectives2024

|4Performance

improvementTechnology

enablementInorganic

growthCustomer

focusMacroeconomic

outlook:

Slowing

inflation

and

lower

interest

rates

to

support

consumersByMeaganSchoenberger,

SeniorEconomist,

KPMGin

the

USThe

past

few

years

have

seen

consumers’financeshitbythedualchallengeofhighinflationandhighinterest

rates.Savings

accumulated

during

lockdownsprovided

a

temporary

buffer

but

now

have

all

but

run

out.

Meanwhile,eligibilitycriteriaforconsumercredithave

tightened,addingto

financialstrain.Thathasnotstoppedconsumers

frompursuing‘revengetravel’.The

phenomenon

has

shown

up

in

recordTransportation

Security

Administration(TSA)throughputforairlinepassengers,aswellasasharpreboundintheair

transportationindustrysince

thepandemic.Whilefaresfordomestictravelhaveabatedinmostcountries,internationalairfareshavebeguntoriseonce

again.In

the

US,for

example,the

import

priceindex

for

airfares

increased9.0percent

5

in

the

monthof

June

for

US

travelers

abroad,with

prices

to

Europe,AsiaandLatinAmericaallcontributingtotheincrease.

Meanwhile,exportpricesforvisitorstotheUSwasup

10.6percent

in

the

same

month.6Global

growth

is

forecast

to

expand3.1percent

in2024,the

same

pace

as2023.In2025,growth

isexpectedtoslowto2.9percentbeforeacceleratingto

3.3percent

in2026.The

US

has

outperformed

in

theglobaleconomybutisexpectedtoslowlaterthisyear.

TheEurozoneandUKareemergingfromrecessions,

withagradualrecoveryinincomesforhouseholdswhichshouldhelpconsumerspending.Meanwhile,Asia

is

forecasted

to

perform

well

in2024and2025on

improvedgrowthinChinaandIndia.GrowthinLatinAmericaisexpected

toexpandmorein2025asinflationcomes

in

closer

to

targets

in

the

largest

economies

of

theregionsuchasMexico,BrazilandChile.Meagan

SchoenbergerSeniorEconomistKPMG

in

the

USmeaganmartin1@kpmg.com5

BureauofLaborStatistics,“USImportandExpert

Price

Indexes“,

June20246

BureauofLaborStatistics,“USImportandExpert

Price

Indexes“,

June2024©2024CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentities

provide

noservicestoclients.

Allrights

reserved.About

KPMG’s

Travel

and

Leisure

networkGlobal

Leisure

Perspectives2024

|5Performance

improvementTechnology

enablementInorganic

growthCustomer

focusLowerglobalinflationshouldhelp

consumerspendingAsinflationsoared,therisingcostsofnecessities,

likeenergyandfood,forcedconsumerstocutbackelsewhere.‘Delayables’,suchasnewcarsandhouseholdgoods,aswellasdiscretionaryspendingon

socialactivities,likediningout,borethebruntofrising

costs.

Aslowdownintheeconomyfromthepaceof2021contributedtomorescrutinybyconsumerson

purchases.Itisworthnotingthatinflationtypicallycausesincreasedselectivenessfromconsumers,whilerecessionscauseamoresignificantpullbackinspending.From

1960to2019,average

US

consumerexpendituresonairfares,recreationservicesandhotels

and

motels

grew

by6.5percent,4.3percentand4.5percent

year-over-year,respectively.7Ouranalysissuggeststhosegrowthratesshrink

to-0.41percent,3.5percent

and

-1.26percentduringrecessions.Duringperiodsofhigh

inflation,consumerspullbackonairtransportandhotelpurchaseswithexpenditurerisingjust4.0percentand

3.2percent

respectively.8Belt-tighteningisconfirmedbyrecentsurveys

.

Around

two-thirdsofUKhouseholdssaytheyhave

reducedspendingonnon-essentials,whileonethirdareusingsavings

to

bridge

the

gap.9

Meanwhile,in

the

US,58percentofconsumersacrossnearlyeveryincome

bracketsaytheyarecuttingbackonnon-essential

spendduetorisinggrocerycosts.10ThegoodnewsisthatKPMG’smostrecentglobal

outlooksuggeststhatinflationisexpectedtofallfrom

a4.9percent

annual

pace

of

growth

in2024to3.4percentin2025.

Thatmeansconsumers,whohave

beenlookingforabreak,willhavemoredisposable

incomeavailablefordiscretionaryspendingliketravel

andrecreation.CentralbanksconsiderratecutsCentralbanks’responsetohighinflation

istoraiseinterestrates,amovethatswiftlyimpactshomeownersonvariable-ratemortgagedeals.

Toreducethemonthlyburden,borrowersareseekingtoextendtheirmortgageterms—35-yearloandeals

are

increasingly

popular

in

the

UK—or

toswitchtemporarilytointerest-onlypayments.

TheUS

consumerhasbeenmoreprotectedfromthepinchof

higherratesduetothenumberofhomeownerswho

lockedinlowratesbutarestill

impacted

by

high

rates

oncreditcardsandotherloans.Central

banks

around

the

world

have

either

alreadybegun

to

cut

rates

or

are

considering

rolling

backrestrictivepolicyasinflationapproachestheirrespectivetargets

and

labor

markets

have

softened.Outlook

for

travelConsumersarereluctanttoforegotheirannual

holidays.International

arrivals

in2023were

up20to30percent

on

the

previous

year

in

some

markets,with

AsiaPacificgrowingespecially

strongly.Staycations,popularizedduringthepandemic,

continuetothrive,offeringcost-friendlyalternativestointernationaltravel,whilegiving

localeconomiesawelcomeboost.Businesstravelisstillstrugglingtomakeacomebackasemployersseekstocuttheircarbon

footprints.Hybridworkgivesmoreopportunities

forvirtualconnections,ratherthanin-person.7

BureauofEconomic

Analysis.8

KPMGEconomicscalculationfromBureauofLaborStatistics9

ONSwebsite,ONS,Publicopinionsandsocialtrends,GreatBritain:householdfinances,27Marchto7

April2024.Accessed

April202410

PYMNT

website,“58%

of

consumers

cutback

on

nonessentials

due

to

rising

grocery

costs“,

Accessed

March2024©2024CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentities

provide

noservicestoclients.

Allrights

reserved.About

KPMG’s

Travel

and

Leisure

networkGlobal

Leisure

Perspectives2024

|6Performance

improvementTechnology

enablementInorganic

growthCustomer

focusTheEuropeanCentralBank,theBankofEngland,theBankofCanada,andseveralcentralbanksinLatinAmerica

including

the

banks

in

Mexico,Chile,Peruand

Brazil

have

already

begun

to

cut

interest

rates.TheFederalReserve(Fed)cutby50basispointsattheirSeptembermeeting;our

forecastssuggest

they

willcutbyanadditional50basispointsbytheendof2024.TheexceptionsareEast

Asiancountries,

which

weremoreprotected

from

theearlyroundsofinflation

that

theglobal

economy

experienced.

Japan

has

begun

to

raiserates

amid

recent

elevated

inflation,but

the

central

bank

ofChinahasbeencuttingonandoffsince2019.Geopoliticalandeconomicheadwindscontinue

to

threatengrowthGeopolitical

tensions

add

risks

to

global

stability

andeconomicgrowth,as

wellas

volatility

tomarkets.Over

40percent

of

the

global

population

will

have

gone

tothe

polls

in2024

to

elect

new

leaders,addingto

theuncertainty.Weather-related

disasters

could

throw

a

wrench

in

travelplans

this

year.The

National

Oceanic

and

AtmosphericAdministration

forecasts

a

record-breaking

hurricaneseason,

whichcouldcurbtravelintheCaribbean,USandLatinAmerica,

whileheatwaves,

firesand

floodingkeep

consumersathomeelsewhere.Risks

are

to

the

downside

in

ourforecasts.Thereare

signs

that

the

labor

market

could

cool

more

thanexpected.The

last

mile

on

inflation

is

expected

to

behard.

Any

signs

of

a

resurgence

in

inflation

could

causecentral

banks

to

reverse

course.These

are

not

part

of

our

base

case

but

still

pose

risks

to

the

global

consumer.BottomLineAmid

many

economic

challenges,there

are

reasons

tobeoptimistic:inflationiscomingintoalignment

withcentral

bank

targets

around

the

world.That

should

helphouseholds

that

have

been

burned

by

inflation

andwill

allow

central

banks

to

begin

to

cut

interest

rates,providinga

tailwind

forgrowth.Mosteconomiesareexpected

to

achieve

a

soft-ish

landing

from

inflation,avoidingdeeprecessions.Those

factorsshouldsupportthe

leisure

and

hospitality

industry,

which

has

historicallybeenmoresensitive

todownturns.of

the

global

population

willhavegone

to

thepollsin2024

toelect

new

leaders,addingto

theuncertainty.Formoreinformation,visittheKPMGEconomics

websiteOver40%©2024CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentities

provide

noservicestoclients.

Allrights

reserved.About

KPMG’s

Travel

and

Leisure

networkGlobal

Leisure

Perspectives2024

|7Performance

improvementTechnology

enablementInorganic

growthCustomer

focusFacingtheheadwindsThepast

18monthshavebeenparticularlychallenging

fordealmakersinthetravel,leisureandhospitalitysector.

Annualtotaldealvalueandvolumeinthesectorhit

historic

lows

in2023.11

The

first

half

of2024has

notchangedtheequationsignificantly,astheUSFederal

Reserveholdstheirmonetarypositionandhighfinancingcostsremain.In

fact,our

analysis

of

the

first

half

of2024showsthat—while

deal

volume

is

up8.1percent

over

thesame

period

of2023—deal

value

has

plummeted45.4percent

in

the

absence

of

any

large

deals(justone

deal

of

more

than

US$1billion

was

announcedin

the

half—Everi

Holdings’merger

with

the

GlobalGamingandPlayDigitalbusinessofInternationalGame

TechnologyPLC(andsubsequentannouncementofApollo’sequityinvestmentintothecombinedentity).12M&A

in

a

down

market:What

to

watchByBradenMark,

Partner,Advisory,FinancialDueDiligence,

KPMGin

the

USM&Aactivityinthetravel,leisureandhospitalitysegmentremainssubduedwithstrategicinvestorsand

privateequityholdingbacktheirdrypowder.

Yetsome

activityremainsinthemarket.

Andallsignssuggestan

uptickinactivitybytheendoftheyear.Here’swhatto

expectfromthemarketgoingforward.11

KPMGInsights,“GettingCreative:M&Atrendsintravel,leisure,andhospitality“,

202312

KPMGInsights,“Afamiliarposition:H1‘24M&Atrendsintravel,leisure,and

hospitality“,

2024BradenMarkPartner,Deal

AdvisoryKPMG

in

the

USbmark@kpmg.com©2024CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentities

provide

noservicestoclients.

Allrights

reserved.About

KPMG’s

Travel

and

Leisure

networkGlobal

Leisure

Perspectives2024

|8Performance

improvementTechnology

enablementInorganic

growthCustomer

focusgrowthinanactivelabormarketwillcontinuetoprovide

strongtailwindsfortheeconomy,keepinginflationary

concernsalive.Asforthestructuralchallengesfacingthesector,wemayseesomepositivedevelopmentsthisyear.

Thetight

labor

conditions

that

drove

wage

inflation

in2023arebeginningtoease.Boththeunemploymentrateandthenumberof

jobopeningsintheUSLeisureand

Hospitalitysectorhavebeenfallinginthefirsthalfof2024,showing

that

while

workers

still

hold

the

upperhand

in

the

labor

tug

of

war,companies

are

inchingbacktowardsequilibrium.

Thatsaid,therewerestill

just

underamillion

jobopeningsintheUSsectorattheendof

the

first

quarter.13Flyingon

tailwindsWebelievewewillbegintoseegreatermomentumfor

M&A

building

into2025.One

potential

tailwind

forM&Ain

thehospitalitysectorcouldcome

from

thegrowing

need

for

maintenance

and

renovation

capitalacrossassets,

which

wasoftentimesdeferredduring

thechallenging

operating

environment

of2020–2021.Rather

thancommittingsignificantadditionalcapital

toexistingassets,

we

believe

some

owners

may

choose

to

recyclethatcapital

through

thesaleofexistingproperties

tonew

ownership

which

wouldcomplete

therenovation.Anotherarea

thatmaydriveM&Aactivity

for

theindustryis

thepowerof

theleisurespender.

Wherecompanies

once

coveted

business

travelers,the

slowpath

back

to

corporate

spending

has

shifted

the

focustopleasingconsumers

withahostofpropertiesandservices

tailored

toindividual

tastes.Thatis

true,

too,

ofcompaniesofferingoutdoorrecreationproductsand

services.

As

people

try

to

live

active,healthy

lifestyles,demand

in

this

segment

has

increased

dramatically.ExploringotheroptionsWithM&Adepressedacross

thesector,somecompanieshave

foundcreativenew

waystoimprovetheir

product

offerings

and

expand

customer

reachthrough

unique

partnerships,such

as

InterContinentalHotel

Group’s

partnership

with

Iberostar

Hotels&Resorts

whereIberostarretainsownershipofitsassets,

while

folding

up

to70all-inclusive

resorts

intothe

IHG’s

portfolio.14Ourviewsuggeststhatthetravel,leisureandhospitalitysectorwillstayinawait-and-seemodeonlargestrategictransactionsfornow,untilthefinancingenvironmentimprovesandvaluationsbeginto

make

sense

again.Private

equity,too,will

wait

outthischallengingcycle,preparedtodeployamassive

stockpileofcapitalonceviableopportunitiesemerge.While

the

Fed

has

been

holding

on

rate

cuts

longer

than

manyhadonceanticipated,therearegrowingsignsthat

one

or

two

cuts

may

still

be

possible

in2024.That

wouldreducethecostoffinancingandunlockdealcapital.However,there

are

also

signs

that

real

wageThe

firsthalfof2024hasnotchanged

theequationsignificantly,

astheUSFederalReserveholdstheirmonetarypositionandhigh

financingcostsremain.13

U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,IndustryataGlance:

Leisureand

Hospitality,

AccessedJuly

10,202414

IHGPLCwebsite,“IHGandIberostarsignastrategicallianceforresortandall-inclusivehotelsintheCaribbean,

Americas,SouthernEuropeand

NorthAfrica“,

AccessedNovember2022©2024CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentities

provide

noservicestoclients.

Allrights

reserved.About

KPMG’s

Travel

and

Leisure

networkGlobal

Leisure

Perspectives2024

|9Performance

improvementTechnology

enablementInorganic

growthCustomer

focusHowKPMGcanhelpTheKPMGnetworkofDeal

Advisoryprofessionalshelptravel,leisureandhospitalityclientsovercomedeal

obstacles

by

taking

a

truly

integrated

approach

to

delivering

value

and

leveraging

its

depth

in

theindustry,data-supportedandtools-ledinsights,andfullM&Acapabilitiesacrossthedeallifecycle.Withatravel,leisureandhospitalityspecialization,ourteamsbringbothtransactionalandoperational

experience,deliveringrapidresultsandvaluecreation.Thoughnotnearlyasextensiveorcomplexanalliance,MGMResortsandMarriottInternationalsignedalong-termlicensingagreementlastyearunderwhichspecificMGMpropertiesareavailablethroughMarriottbookingchannels.15

ItfollowssimilararrangementsIHG,the

VenetianHotel,

WyndhamResortsandCaesarsEntertainmenthave

pursued

in

recent

years.Three

focusareas

for

travel,leisureandhospitalityM&AleadersWhilehighfinancingcostshaveessentiallychokedoffdealmaking,weexpectinterest

rate

rises

are

over

for

this

cycle.

The

timing

of

US

Fed

ratereductionsisuncertain,howeveritseemsclearthat

anyratecuttingcouldignite

a

buying

spree

in

a

frustratedM&A

market.Leisureconsumptionispoweringthereboundinthetravelsegment.Leisureandhospitalitysectorcompanies

shouldremainfocusedonaligningtheirproductportfolios

toattractconsumerdollarsandcontinuetostrategicallydiversify

throughfocusedacquisitions.Companiesarefindingnewwaystoexpandtheirnetworks,

expose

their

brand,and

addvalue

to

their

portfolios.M&A

is

one

route.But

the

leaders

arealsoexploringothercreativeways

to

achieve

this(such

asloyalty-programsharing)without

buyingassetsoutright.Focus

on

theleisure

spender:15

Marriot

website,“It’s

Showtime:MGM

Collection

with

Marriott

Bonvoy

Debuts

in

Grand

Style“,

Accessed

July

102024Explore

thestrategic

pivot:©2024CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentities

provide

noservicestoclients.

Allrights

reserved.Watch

the

market:About

KPMG’s

Travel

and

Leisure

networkGlobal

Leisure

Perspectives2024

|

10Performance

improvementTechnology

enablementInorganic

growth123Customer

focusHainan:

Innovating

travel

retail

in

ChinaByNicoleZhang,

OfficeSeniorPartner,

Hainan;andWilliSun,

Partner,

Headof

AdvisoryServices,

ConsumerMarkets,

KPMGChinaFrom

a

single

shop

in

the

sleepy

town

of

Sanya

in2011,the

Province

of

Hainan

in

China

has

now

turned

intoamulti-billion-dollarindustryfeaturingsomeoftheworld’sbiggestduty-freestoresandtophotels.

Travel

andretailbrandsaroundtheworldaretakingnotice.‘Travel

retail’is

a

booming

business

focused,as

thename

suggests,on

shopping

by

travelers(be

theydomestic

or

international).It

is

anchored

by

the

duty-free

channel

—goods

sold

free

of

duty

and

tax,usuallytointernationaltravelers.However,therearethreeso-

called‘offshoreduty-free’

jurisdictionsaroundtheworld

whereduty-freerightsexistfordomestictravelerstoo.One

of

those

is

the

Hainan

FreeTrade

Port

in

China.Shaping

the

futureofduty

freeThe

tourism

and

retail

sectors

are

thriving

in

the

HainanFreeTradePort.In2023,totalretailsalesinHainanincreasedby10.7percent,andlocalduty-freesalesgrew

to

CNY43.76billion(US$6.2billion),representing

an

increase

of25.4percent.The

number

of

shoppersjumped

nearly60percent

in

theyear,to6.75million

andtourist

turnover

was

as

high

as188.6percent,

lifting

totaltourismrevenuebynearly72percent

year-on-year.16Withitsintegrated,opentravelretailmarketandvibrant

travelandshoppingofferings,Hainanhasbecomealeaderinthedevelopmentoftheduty-freemarkets.Nicole

ZhangOfficeSeniorPartnerKPMGChinanicole.ll.zhang@kpmg.comWilliSunPartner,Head

of

Advisory

Services,

ConsumerMarketsKPMGChinawilli.sun@©2024CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentities

provide

noservicestoclients.

Allrights

reserved.16

KPMGandMoodieDavittReport,“2024

Hainan

Travel

Retail“,

April2024About

KPMG’s

Travel

and

Leisure

networkGlobal

Leisure

Perspectives2024

|

11Performance

improvementTechnology

enablementInorganic

growthCustomer

focusinvestment

into

a128,000square

meter

site,attracting

over1,000luxury

brands

including

iconic

maisons

from

theretailers’majorityownerLVMHGroup.DFShopes

theprojectwillbecomeSanya’spremierdestinationfor

luxuryshopping,world-classaccommodation,dining

andentertainment,servinginternationalanddomestictouristswithinnovative,renownedluxurybrandsand

experiences.19Buildingagolden

futureWiththedevelopmentofvariousretailbusinessmodels,acompetitiveindustryclusterisemergingin

Hainan