Nature：生成式AI对在线知识社区的影响 The consequences of generative AI for online knowledge communities

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TheconsequencesofgenerativeAIforonlineknowledgecommunities

GordonBurtch,DokyunLee&ZhichenChen

Generativeartifcialintelligencetechnologies,especiallylargelanguagemodels(LLMs)likeChatGPT,arerevolutionizinginformationacquisitionandcontentproductionacrossavarietyofdomains.

Thesetechnologieshaveasignifcantpotentialtoimpactparticipationandcontentproduction

inonlineknowledgecommunities.Weprovideinitialevidenceofthis,analyzingdatafromStack

OverfowandRedditdevelopercommunitiesbetweenOctober2021andMarch2023,documentingChatGPT’sinfuenceonuseractivityintheformer.Weobservesignifcantdeclinesinbothwebsite

visitsandquestionvolumesatStackOverfow,particularlyaroundtopicswhereChatGPTexcels.Bycontrast,activityinRedditcommunitiesshowsnoevidenceofdecline,suggestingtheimportance

ofsocialfabricasabuferagainstthecommunity-degradingefectsofLLMs.Finally,thedeclinein

participationonStackOverfowisfoundtobeconcentratedamongnewerusers,indicatingthatmorejunior,lesssociallyembeddedusersareparticularlylikelytoexit.

Recentadvancementsingenerativeartifcialintelligence(GenAI)technologies,especiallylargelanguagemodels(LLMs)suchasChatGPT,havebeensignifcant.LLMsdemonstrateremarkableprofciencyintasksthatinvolveinformationretrievalandcontentcreation

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–

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.Giventhesecapabilities,itisimportanttoconsidertheirpotentialtodriveseismicshifsinthewayknowledgeisdevelopedandexchangedwithinonlineknowledgecommunities

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,5

.

LLMsmaydrivebothpositiveandnegativeimpactsonparticipationandactivityatonlineknowledgecom-munities.Onthepositiveside,LLMscanenhanceknowledgesharingbyprovidingimmediate,relevantresponsestouserqueries,potentiallybolsteringcommunityengagementbyhelpinguserstoefcientlyaddressawiderrangeofpeerquestions.Viewedfromthisperspective,GenAItoolsmaycomplementandenhanceexistingactivitiesinacommunity,enablingagreatersupplyofinformation.Onthenegativeside,LLMsmayreplaceonlineknowledgecommunitiesaltogether.

Ifthedisplacementefectdominates,itwouldgiverisetoseveralseriousconcerns.First,whileLLMsoferinnovativesolutionsforinformationretrievalandcontentcreationandhavebeenshowntosignifcantlyenhanceindividualproductivityinavarietyofwritingandcodingtasks,theyhavealsobeenfoundtohallucinate,i.e.,providing‘confdentlyincorrect’responsestouserqueries

6

,andtoundermineworkerperformanceoncertaintypesoftasks

3

.Second,ifindividualparticipationinonlinecommunitiesweretodecline,thiswouldimplyadeclineinopportunitiesforallmannerofinterpersonalinteraction,uponwhichmanyimportantactivitiesdepend,e.g.,collaboration,mentorship,jobsearch.Further,totheextentasimilardynamicmayemergewithinformalorganizationsandworkcontexts,itwouldraisetheprospectofanalogousdeclinesinorganizationalattachment,peerlearning,careeradvancementandinnovation

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–

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.

Withtheaboveinmind,weaddresstwoquestionsinthiswork.First,weexaminetheefectsthatgenerativeartifcialintelligence(AI),particularlylargelanguagemodels(LLMs),haveonindividualengagementinonlineknowledgecommunities.Specifcally,weassesshowLLMsinfuenceuserparticipationandcontentcreationinonlineknowledgecommunities.Second,weexplorefactorsthatmoderate(amplifyorattenuate)theefectsofLLMsonparticipationandcontentcreationatonlineknowledgecommunities.Byaddressingtheserelationships,weaimtoadvanceourunderstandingoftheroleLLMsmayplayinshapingthefutureofknowledgesharingandcollaborationonline.Further,weseektoprovideinsightsintoapproachesandstrategiesthatcanencourageasustainableknowledgesharingdynamicbetweenhumanusersandAItechnologies.

WeevaluateourquestionsinthecontextofChatGPT’srelease,inlateNovemberof2022.Westartbyexam-ininghowthereleaseofChatGPTimpactedStackOverfow.WeshowthatChatGPT’sreleaseledtoamarkeddeclineinwebtrafctoStackOverfow,andacommensuratedeclineinquestionpostingvolumes.Wethenconsiderhowdeclinesinparticipationmayvaryacrosscommunitycontexts.LeveragingdataonpostingactivityinRedditdevelopercommunitiesoverthesameperiod,wehighlightanotablecontrast:nodetectibledeclinesinparticipation.Weattributethisdiferencetosocialfabric;whereasStockOverfowfocusesonpureinforma-tionexchange,Redditdevelopercommunitiesarecharacterizedbystrongersocialbonds.Further,consideringheterogeneityacrosstopicdomainswithinStackOverfow,weshowthatdeclinesinparticipationvariedgreatly

QuestromSchoolofBusiness,BostonUniversity,Boston,MA02215,USA.email:gburtch@

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dependingontheavailabilityofhistoricalcommunitydata,alikelyproxyforLLM’sabilitytoaddressques-tionsinadomain,giventhatdatawouldlikelyhavebeenusedintraining.Finally,weexplorewhichusersweremostafectedbyChatGPT’srelease,andtheimpactChatGPThashadonthecharacteristicsofcontentbeingposted.WeshowthatnewerusersweremostlikelytoexitthecommunityaferChatGPTwasreleased.Further,andrelatedly,weshowthatthequestionspostedtoStackOverfowbecamesystematicallymorecomplexandsophisticatedaferChatGPT’srelease.

Methods

Toaddressthesequestions,weleverageacombinationofdatasourcesandmethods(additionaldetailsarepro-videdinthesupplement).First,weemployaproprietarydatasetcapturingdailyaggregatecountsofvisitorsto,andalargesetofotherpopularwebsites.TisdatacoverstheperiodfromSeptember2022throughMarch2023.Additionally,weemploydataonthequestionsandanswerspostedtoStackOverfow,alongwithcharacteristicsofthepostingusers,fromtwocalendarperiodsthatcoverthesamespanofthecalendaryear.TetwosamplescoverOctober2021throughmid-Marchof2022,andOctober2022throughmid-Marchof2023.TesedatasetswereobtainedviatheStackExchangeDataExplorer,whichprovidesdownloadable,anonymizeddataonactivityindiferentStackExchangecommunities.Further,weemploydatafromsubred-,whichtracksaggregatedailycountsofpostingvolumestoeachsub-Reddit.Ourdatasourcesdonotincludeanypersonaluserinformation,andnoneofouranalysesmakeuseofanypersonaluserinformation. WefrstexaminedtheefectthatChatGPT’sreleaseonNovember30thof2022hadonwebtrafcarrivingatStackOverfow,leveragingthedailywebtrafcdataset.Tesample,sourcedfromSimilarWeb,includesdailytrafctothetop1000websites.Weemployavariantofthesyntheticcontrolmethod

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,namelySyntheticControlUsingLASSO,orSCUL

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.Takingthetimeseriesofwebvisitstoastreated,themethodidenti-fes,viaLASSO

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,alinear,weightedcombinationofcandidatecontrolseries(websites)thatyieldsanaccuratepredictionoftrafctopriortoChatGPT’srelease.TeresultinglinearcombinationisthenusedtoimputeacounterfactualestimateoftrafcatintheperiodfollowingChatGPT’srelease,refectingpredictionsofwebtrafcvolumesthatwouldhavebeenobservedintheabsenceofChatGPT.

Second,weexaminedChatGPT’sefectsonthevolumeofquestionsbeingpostedtoStackOverfow.Weidentifedthetop50mostpopulartopictagsassociatedwithquestionsonStackOverfowduringourperiodofstudy,calculatingthedailycountofquestionsincludingeachtagoveratimewindowbracketingthedateofChatGPT’srelease.WethenfollowedtheapproachofRefs.

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,

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,constructingthesamesetoftopicpanelsforthesamecalendarperiod,oneyearprior,toserveasourcontrolwithinadiference-in-diferencesdesign,toestimateanaveragetreatmentefect,andtoenableevaluationbothoftheparalleltrendsassumption(whichissupportedbytheabsenceofsignifcantpre-treatmentdiferences)andtreatmentefectdynamics

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.FigureS1inthesupplementprovidesavisualexplanationofourresearchdesign.

Tird,weconsideredwhethertheefectsmightdiferacrossonlineknowledgecommunities,dependingonthedegreetowhichacommunityisfocusedstrictlyoninformationexchange.Tatis,weconsideredthepotentialmitigatingefectofsocialfabric,i.e.socialbondsandconnections,asabuferagainstLLMsnegativeefectsonconnectionwithhumanpeers.TelogicforthistestisthatLLMs,despitebeingcapableofhigh-qualityinforma-tionprovisionaroundmanytopics,areoflessclearvalueasapuresubstituteforhumansocialconnections

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.WethuscontrastedouraverageefectestimatesfromStackOverfowwithefectestimatesobtainedusingpanelsofdailypostingvolumesfromanalogoussub-communitiesatReddit(sub-Reddits),focusedonthesamesetsoftopics.RedditisausefulpointofcomparisonbecauseithasbeenwelldocumentedthatRedditdevelopercommunitiesarerelativelymoresocialandcommunalthanStackOverfow

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,

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.Wealsoexploredheterogene-ityintheStackOverfowefectsacrosstopics,repeatingourdiference-in-diferencesregressionforeachStackOverfowtopicandassociatedsub-reddit.

Lastly,weexploredshifsintheaveragecharacteristicsofusersandquestionsatStackOverfowfollowingChatGPT’srelease,specifcallyintermsofthepostingusers’accounttenure,indays,and,relatedly,theaveragecomplexityofpostedquestions.ItisreasonabletoexpectthattheindividualsmostlikelytorelyonChatGPTarejunior,newermembersofthecommunity,astheseindividualslikelyhavelesssocialattachmenttothecom-munity,andtheyarelikelytoaskrelativelysimplerquestions,whichChatGPTisbetterabletoaddress.Inturn,itisreasonabletoexpectthatthequestionsthatfailtobepostedarethosethatwouldhavebeenrelativelysimpler.Wetestedthesepossibilitiesintwoways,consideringquestion-leveldatafromStackOverfow.WebeganbyestimatingtheefectofChatGPT’sreleaseontheaveragetenure(indays)ofpostingusers’accounts.Next,weestimatedasimilarmodel,consideringtheaveragefrequencyof‘long’words(wordswith6ormorecharacters)withinpostedquestions,asaproxyforcomplexity.

Results

OverallimpactofLLMsoncommunityengagement

Figure

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AdepictstheactualdailywebtrafctoStackOverfow(blue)alongsideourestimatesofthetrafcthatStackOverfowwouldhaveexperiencedintheabsenceofChatGPT’srelease(red).TeSyntheticControlesti-matescloselymirrorthetruetimeseriespriortoChatGPT’srelease,supportingtheirvalidityasacounterfactualforwhatwouldhaveoccurredpost.Figure

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Bpresentsthediferencebetweenthesetimeseries.WeestimatethatStackOverfow’sdailywebtrafchasdeclinedbyapproximately1millionindividualsperday,equivalenttoapproximately12%ofthesite’sdailywebtrafcjustpriortoChatGPT’srelease.

LLMs’efectonusercontentproduction

Ourdiference-in-diferencesestimationsemployingdataonpostingactivityatStackOverfowrevealedthatquestionpostingvolumesper-topiconStackOverfowhavedeclinedmarkedlysinceChatGPT’srelease(Fig.

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A).

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Figure1.Syntheticcontrolestimatesofdeclineindailywebtrafctostackoverfow.Estimatesareobtained

viasyntheticcontrolusingLASSO(SCUL),basedondailywebtrafcestimatesaccordingtoSimilarWebforthe1000mostpopularwebsitesontheinternet.Panel(A)depictstheactualwebtrafcvolumes(inblue)recordedbySimilarWebalongsidetheSyntheticControl(inred).Panel(B)depictsthediferencebetweenthetwoseries,refectingtheestimatedcausalefectofChatGPT.

Figure2.EstimatedefectsofChatGPTonuseractivityatstackoverfowandreddit.Estimatesareobtainedviadiference-in-diferencesregression,comparingcontentpostingvolumesoveraperiodbracketingtherelease

ofChatGPT(onNovember30th,2022)withawindowofequallengthobservedonecalendaryearprior.Panel

(A)depictsefectsovertime(byweek)onStackOverfowquestionvolumespertopic.Panel(B)depictsefectsonRedditpostingvolumes,persub-reddit,forsub-redditsdealingwithanoverlappingsetoftopics.Teshadedarearepresents95%confdenceintervals.

TisresultreinforcestheideathatLLMsarereplacingonlinecommunitiesasasourceofknowledgeformanyusers.RepeatingthesameanalysisusingRedditdata,weobservednoevidencethatChatGPThashadanyefectsonuserengagementatReddit(Fig.

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B).WereplicatetheseresultsinFig.S2ofthesupplementemployingthematrixcompletionestimatorofRef.

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.

HeterogeneityinChatGPT’sefectonstackoverfowpostingvolumesbytopic

WeobservedagreatdealofheterogeneityacrossStackOverfowtopics,yetconsistentlynullresultsacrosssub-reddits(Fig.

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).Ourestimatesthusindicate,again,thatRedditdevelopercommunitieshavebeenlargelyunafectedbyChatGPT’srelease.OurStackOverfowresultsfurtherindicatethatthemostsubstantiallyafectedtopicsarethosemostheavilytiedtoconcrete,self-containedsofwarecodingactivities.Tatis,themostheav-ilyafectedtopicsarealsothosewherewemightanticipatethatChatGPTwouldperformquitewell,duetotheprevalenceofaccessibletrainingdata.

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Figure3.Topic-specifcefectsofChatGPTonstackoverfowandreddit.Estimatesareobtainedviadiference-in-diferencesregression,pertopic.Tefguredepictsefectestimatesforeachstackoverfowtopic(inorange)with95%confdenceintervalsandestimatesforeachsub-reddit(inred),whereavailable.Notethatdataon

sub-redditpostingvolumeswasnotavailableforthreesub-redditcommunities:javascript,jQuery,andDjango.OtherRedditestimatesareomittedduetothelackofaclearlyanalogoussub-redditaddressingthattopic.

Forexample,Python,CSS,Flutter,ReactJS,Django,SQL,Arrays,andPandasareallreferencestoprogram-minglanguages,specifcprogramminglibraries,ordatatypesandstructuresthatonemightencounterwhileworkingwithaprogramminglanguage.Incontrast,relativelyunafectedtagsappearmorelikelytorelatetotopicsinvolvingcomplextasks,requiringnotonlyappropriatesyntaxbutalsocontextualinformationthatwouldofenhavebeenoutsideofthescopeofChatGPT’strainingdata.Forexample,SpringandSpring-bootareJava-basedframeworksforenterprisesolutions,ofeninvolvingback-end(server-side)programminglogicwithprivateenterpriseknowledgebasesandsofwareinfrastructures.Questionsrelatedtothesetopicsareintuitivequestionsforwhichanautomated(i.e.cut-and-paste)solutionwouldbelessstraightforward,andlesslikelytoappearinthetextualtrainingdataavailablefortrainingtheLLM.AdditionalexampleshereincludethetagsrelatedtoAmazonWebServices,Firebase,Docker,SQLServer,andMicrosofAzure.

Toevaluatethispossibleexplanationmoredirectly,wecollecteddataonthevolumeofactiveGitHubreposi-toriesmakinguseofeachlanguageorframework,aswellasthenumberofindividualssubscribedtosub-redditsfocusedoneachlanguageorframework.WethenplottedascaledmeasureofeachvalueatoptheobservedefectsizesandobtainedFig.

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.Tefgureindicatesaroughcorrelationbetweenavailablepublicsourcesoftrainingdataandourefectsizes.

ChatGPT’sefectonaverageuseraccountageandquestioncomplexity

Figure

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depictsthechangeinaveragepostingusers’accounttenure,makingclearthat,uponChatGPT’srelease,asystematicrisebegantotakeplace,suchthatuserswereincreasinglylikelytobemoreestablished,olderaccounts.TeimplicationofthisresultisthatneweruseraccountsbecamesystematicallylesslikelytoparticipateintheStackOverfowcommunityaferChatGPTbecameavailable.Figure

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depictstheefects,indicatingthatques-tionsexhibitedasystematicriseincomplexityfollowingthereleaseofChatGPT.

Tesefndings,consistentwiththeideathatmorejuniorandlessexperiencedusersbegantoexitmightbecauseforconcernifasimilardynamicisplayingoutinmoreformalorganizationandworkcontexts.Tisisbecausejuniorindividualsmaystandtolosethemostfromdeclinesinpeerinteraction—theseindividualstypi-callyaremoremarginalmembersoforganizationsandthushavelessrobustnetworksandhavethemosttoloseintermsofopportunitiesforcareeradvancement

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.Further,theseindividualsmaybeleastcapableofrecognizingmistakesintheoutputofLLMs,whicharewellknowntoengageinhallucination,providing‘confdentlywrong’answerstouserqueries

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.Indeed,recentworkobservesthatnon-expertsfacethegreatestdifcultydeterminingwhethertheinformationtheyhaveobtainedfromanLLMiscorrect

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.

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Figure4.Topic-specifcefectsofChatGPTonstackoverfow(blackpointswith95%confdenceintervals)

withNumberofGithubrepositories(purple)andsub-redditsubscribers(red)overlaid.Weobservearough

correlationbetweenthevolumeofGithubrepositoriesmakinguseofagivenlanguageorframework,thelevelofactivityinassociatedsub-redditcommunities,andthemagnitudeofefectsizes.TisassociatesuggestsefectsarelargerfortopicswheremorepublicdatawasavailabletotraintheLLM.

Figure5.EfectofChatGPTreleaseontheaveragetenure(indays)ofuseraccountspostingquestionsto

stackoverfow.ShortlyaferChatGPT’srelease,weseeasystematicriseintheaverageage(indays)forthe

useraccountspostingquestionstoStackOverfow.Weseethataverageaccountagerisessystematicallyonce

ChatGPTisreleased,consistentwithneweraccountssystematicallyreducingtheirparticipationandexitingthecommunity.

Discussion

WehaveshownthatChatGPTsreleasewasassociatedwithadiscontinuousdeclineinwebtrafcandquestionpostingvolumesatStockOverfow.Tisresultisconsistentwiththeideathatmanyindividualsarenowrely-ingonLLMsforknowledgeacquisitioninlieuofhumanpeersinonlineknowledgecommunities.OurresultsdemonstratethattheseefectsmanifestedforStackOverfow,yetnotforRedditdevelopercommunities.

Further,wehaveshownthattheseefectsweremorepronouncedforverypopulartopicsascomparedtolesspopulartopics,andevidencesuggeststhatthisheterogeneityderivedfromthevolumeoftrainingdataavail-ableforLLMtrainingpriortoChatGPTsrelease.Finally,ourresultsdemonstratethatChatGPT’sreleasewas

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Figure6.EfectofChatGPT’sreleaseontheaveragecomplexityofquestionspostedtoStackOverfow,

refectedbytheaveragefrequencyof‘long’words(wordswith6ormorecharacters).ShortlyaferChatGPT’srelease,weseeasystematicriseintheaveragecomplexityofquestions.Tisresultisagainconsistentwiththeideathatneweraccountssystematicallyreducedtheirparticipationandexitedthecommunity.

associatedwithasignifcance,discontinuousincreaseintheaveragetenureofaccountsparticipatingonStackOverfow,andinthecomplexityofquestionsposted(asrefectedbytheprevalenceoflengthywordswithinquestions).Teseresultsareconsistentwiththeideathatthatnewer,lessexpertusersweremorelikelytobeginrelyingonChatGPTinlieuoftheonlineknowledgecommunity.

Ourfndingsbearseveralimportantimplicationsforthemanagementofonlineknowledgecommunities.Foronlinecommunities,ourfndingshighlighttheimportanceofsocialfabricasameansofensuringthesustain-abilityandsuccessofonlinecommunitiesintheageofgenerativeAI.OurfndingsthushighlightthatmanagersofonlineknowledgecommunitiescancombattheerodinginfuenceofLLMsbyenablingsocialization,asacomplementtopureinformationexchange.Ourfndingsalsohighlighthowcontentcharacteristicsandcom-munitymembershipcanshifbecauseofLLMs,observationsthatcaninformcommunitymanagerscontentmoderationstrategiesandtheiractivitiescenteredoncommunitygrowthandchurnprevention.

Beyondthepotentialconcernsaboutwhattheobserveddynamicsmayimplyforonlinecommunitiesandtheirmembers,ourfndingsalsoraiseimportantconcernsaboutthefutureofcontentproductioninonlinecommunities,whichbyallaccountshaveservedasakeysourceoftrainingdataformanyofthemostpopularLLMs,includingOpenAI’sGPT.Totheextentcontentproductiondeclinesintheseopencommunities,itwillreinforceconcernsthathavebeenraisedintheliteratureaboutlimitationsonthevolumeofdataavailableformodeltraining

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.Ourfndingssuggestthatlong-termcontentlicensingagreementsthathaverecentlybeensignedbetweenLLMcreatorsandonlinecommunityoperatorsmaybeundermined.Iftheseissuesarelefunaddressed,thecontinuedadvancementofgenerativeAImodelsmaynecessitatethattheircreatorsidentifyalternativedatasources.

Conclusion

Ourworkisnotwithoutlimitations,someofwhichpresentopportunitiesforfutureresearch.First,forourresearchdesigntoyieldcausalinterpretations,wemustassumetheabsenceofconfoundedtreatments.Forexample,wereanotherlargeonlinecommunitytohaveemergedaroundthesametime,thepossibilityexiststhatitmayexplainthedeclineinparticipationatStackOverfow.Second,ourstudylacksanuancedanalysisofchangesincontentcharacteristics.Althoughwestudychangesinanswerqualityusingnetvotescores(seethesupplement),ourmeasuresmayrefectchangesinotheraspectsunrelatedtoinformationquality.Similarly,althoughwestudychangesinquestioncomplexity,ourmeasureofcomplexityistiedtowordlength.Futureworkcanthusrevisitthesequestionsemployingavarietyofothermeasuresofqualityandcomplexity.

Tird,althoughwehaveshownadeclineinparticipationatStackOverfow,weareunabletospeaktowhetherthesamedynamicisplayingoutinotherorganizationalsettings,e.g.workplaces.Itisalsoimportanttorecognizethatthecontextofouranalysesmaybeunique.TotheextentStackOverfowandRedditdevelopercommunitiesmightnotberepresentativeofdevelopercommunitiesmorebroadly,thegeneralizabilityoftheseresultswouldbeconstrained.Relatedly,itispossiblethattheresultsweobserveareuniquetoknowledgecommunitiesthatfocusonsofwaredevelopmentandinformationtechnology.Tedynamicsofcontentproductionmaydifermarkedlyinotherknowledgedomains.Finally,ourworkdemonstratesefectsoverarelativelyshortperiodoftime(severalmonths).Itispossiblethatthelonger-rundynamicsoftheobservedefectsmayshif.Giventhesepoints,futureworkcanandshouldendeavortoexplorethegeneralizabilityofourfndingstoothercommunities,andfutureworkshouldexaminethelonger-runefectsofgenerativeAItechnologiesoncommunityparticipa-tionandknowledgesharing.

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WeanticipatethatourstudywillinspiremoresophisticatedanalysesoftheefectsthatgenerativeAItechnolo-gies,includingLLMs,butalsogenerativeimage,audio,andvideomodels,mayhaveonpatternsofknowledgesharingandcollaborationwithinorganizationsandsocietymorebroadly.Suchworkiscruciallyneeded,tobetterunderstandthenuancesofwhereandwhenindividualsmayrelyonhumanpeersversusGenerativeAItools,andthedesirableandundesirableconsequencesfororganizationsandsociety,suchthatwecanbegintoplanforandmanagethisnewdynamic.

Dataavailability

DataonStackOverfowusers,questions,andanswerswasobtainedviatheStackExchangeDataExplorerat

/stackoverfow/query/new.

Dataonsub-redditpostingvolumeswasobtainedfrom

.SimilarWebdailywebtrafcdataisnotavailableforpublicdissemination,thoughitisavailableforpurchasefrom

https://deweydata.io

.StackOverfowdata,RedditdataandanalysisscriptsareavailableinapublicrepositoryattheOSF:

https://osf.io/qs6b3/

.

Received:23October2023;Accepted:2May2024

publishedonline:06May2024

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