2024年中国电动汽车报告：全球市场的“龙驱动”？（英文版）

2024

CHINESEELECTRICVEHICLES:

DRAGORDRIVERFORGLOBALMARKETS?

Factualdiscussion&recommendationsbasedonaglobalconsumersurvey

2

CONTENT

FOREWORD3

EXECUTIVESUMMARY&KEYFINDINGS4

1.CHINA’SPASSENGERVEHICLEINDUSTRY8

2.HOWGLOBALCARBUYERSLOOK

ATCHINESEOEMs14

CONCLUSION26

ALEXANDERKRUG

Partner,AutomotivePracticeMunich

DR.ANDREASSCHLOSSER

Partner,AutomotivePracticeMunich

RICHARDPARKIN

Partner,AutomotivePracticeParis

DR.PHILIPPSEIDEL

Principal,AutomotivePracticeMunich

NICOLABORGO

Manager,AutomotivePracticeFrankfurt

ARTHURD.LITTLE

3

FOREWORD

ChinahasbeenagrowthdriverforWesternOEMsforthelasttwodecades,asithastakenadvantageofitsmarketsizeandunboundeddesireforWesterncarsthroughjointventures

(JVs)withlocalproducers.However,thefirstsignsofan

inflectionarenowvisible.Agovernmentprograminitiateda

decadeagotopromoteChina’sdomesticautomotiveindustryandelectrificationledtotheemergenceofnewelectric

vehicle(EV)brandsandincreaseddomesticmanufacturers’

desiretocreatetheirownbrandsandproductportfolios.Asaresult,Chinabecamethelargestglobalcarexporterin2023.

WebelievetheinternationalizationofChineseOEMswill

soonaccelerate.Thedriversarebothpoliticalandeconomic,includingvariousregions’electrificationgoalsandthelevelingoffoftheChineseeconomy,forcingdomesticOEMstofocusonexportactivities.Factorssuchastheglobalambitionsof

ChineseOEMs—particularlyintheEVmarket(bothbattery-poweredandhybrids)—andtheircompetitivenesscomparedtotraditionalincumbentsplayasignificantrole.

ThequestioniswhetherthisisanopportunityforglobalEVtechnologiesandmarketsorjustathreatforEuropean/USincumbentmanufacturers—ashasbeenpositedbymanyinthepublicarena.

ArthurD.Little(ADL)believesglobalautomotiveplayersmustanalyzeanddiscussthemarketapproachofChinesebrands,globalcustomerperspectivesonChineseEVs,andtheprofileofcustomerswhowillbethefirsttopurchaseChineseEVstosupportafact-basedandobjectivediscussion.

Thiswillenablestakeholdersintheglobalautomotive

industrytomakebetterstrategicdecisionsintheinteresting,yetchallenging,EVmarket,wherenolessthantheindustry’sfutureisatstake.ThisReportprovidesanoverviewofthe

keyresultsofanADLstudyinvolvingmorethan15,000respondentsacross25countries,sheddinglightonhowChineseOEMsareexpandingtheirEVsinternationally.

4

REPORT:CHINESEELECTRICVEHICLES:DRAGORDRIVERFORGLOBALMARKETS?

EXECUTIVESUMMARY&KEYFINDINGS

ThisReportaddressestwocrucialgapsforexecutivesintheautomotiveindustry:

(1)itprovidescomprehensiveanalysisofthe

positioningstrategiesofChineseOEMs,and

(2)itdescribestheresultsofafirst-of-its-kindsurveymeasuringglobalcustomerperspectivesonChineseEVs.

TheChinesepassengervehiclemarkethasbeenthelargestglobalmarketintermsofsales

since2009andhascontinuedtogrowwitha

CAGRof7%,reaching26millionvehiclessold

in2023.Themarkethasbeenamajorsource

ofglobalEVdemand,withEVsaccountingfor

35%ofpassengervehiclesalesin2023.Startingin2025,salesofEV,battery-electric,and

hybridvehiclesareexpectedtosurpassthoseofinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehiclesinChina.

Passengervehicleproductionwillbedriven

byEVsinthecomingyears,projectedtogrow

at14%annuallyandcomprise69%ofChinese

productionby2030.Thisproductiongrowthhasfueledexportactivities,whichincreasedfrom

1.5millionpassengervehiclesin2021to4millionin2023,makingChinathelargestexporterof

passengervehicles.

Whatarethereasonsforthisrobustsupplygrowth?Inthepast,Chineseproduction

primarilycateredtodomesticdemand.However,aseriesofpoliciesstartinginthemid-2010s

ledtosignificantgovernmentsupportforthe

EVindustry.Thisresultedinstronggrowth

forseveralbrands,ambitiousinternational

strategies,andtheestablishmentofsubstantial

productioncapacitiestoaccommodatepotentialglobaldemand.

GROWTHINPASSENGERVEHICLEPRODUCTION

INCHINAWILLBE

DRIVENBYEVsIN

THECOMINGYEARS

Consequently,ChineseOEMs,especially

thosewithEVmodels,beganexploring

internationalization.AccordingtotheADL

study,ChineseOEMsales(EVandotherwise)

willgrowfasterthanthemarketinallglobal

regionsby2030,withEurope(+14%annually)

andSoutheastAsia(+15%annually)experiencingthestrongestgrowth.

Inthestudy,ADLexaminedthreecritical

aspectsthatareessentialforautomotive

executivesfromChineseOEMsseekingto

expandtheirglobalpresence,aswellasthoserepresentingWestern,Japanese,andSouth

KoreanincumbentOEMs:

1.CategorizationofChineseOEMs

2.Globalcustomerperspectivesonfactors

influencingthedecisiontopurchase(ornotpurchase)aChineseEVbasedonasurveywithmorethan15,000respondentsacross

25countries

3.ProfilingofcustomersmostlikelytobeearlyadoptersofChineseEVs

ARTHURD.LITTLE

5

InthisReport,wedefinethreecategoriesofChineseOEMs:

1.EVstart-upsthataspiretobecome

prominentplayersinbothChinaandothercountries.Theyemphasizebatteryand

EVpowertraincapabilities,software,and

autonomous/automateddrivingtechnologies.Someplayersdonothaveabackgroundin

theautomotiveindustry(i.e.,theybeganmanufacturingbatteriesorspecializedindigitalproducts).

2.IncumbentswithahistoryofinternationalJVsandinvestments.Wedifferentiate

betweennongovernmental(e.g.,Geely)andstate-ownedincumbents(e.g.,SAICMotor).TheseOEMsstrivetoestablishastrong

presenceinChinaandgloballythrough

diversebrands,focusingonelectrificationacrossvarioussegments.Weexpecttheseplayerstoachievethehighestsalesvolumeininternationalmarketsamongthethree

categories,predominantlyindevelopedautomotivemarkets.

3.Domesticmarketincumbentsthattargettheentry-levelandmainstreamChinese

market,aimingtopenetrateintodevelopingcountriesbyemphasizingvalueand

affordableelectrification.Weseepromisingopportunities,particularlyinAfrica,SouthAmerica,andstatesintheAssociationof

SoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN).

ADLaimstoofferautomotiveexecutivesa

customer-focusedperspectiveonChineseEVsbyanalyzingthefactorsthatinfluencecustomerdecisionstopurchase(ornot

purchase)aChineseEV.Morethanhalfofsurvey

respondentsreportedthataChineseEVisaviableoptionforthem.Notably,respondentsinSoutheastAsiadisplayedahighlevelof

openness,exceeding75%.Consumersin

geographicallywell-establishedautomotiveregions(Europe,NorthAmerica,andJapan/SouthKorea)showedloweraverageinterest.

Overall,theprimarymotivationsforpurchasingaChineseEVarevalueformoney(44%)and

batterytechnology(43%).ReasonsrespondentswouldnotconsiderpurchasingChineseEVs

includeconcernsaboutquality(58%),brand

reputation(32%),andapreferencefornationalbrands(31%).

THEPRIMARY

MOTIVATIONSFOR

PURCHASINGACHINESE

EVAREVALUEFOR

MONEYANDBATTERYTECHNOLOGY

ThisReportalsopresentsprofilesoflikely

purchasersofChineseEVs.WeconsideredthefivemainEuropeanmarkets(Germany,France,Italy,Spain,andtheUK),theNorthAmericanmarket,andtheThaimarket,focusingonthreeaspectsforeachcountry:

1.ThepenetrationstrategyofChineseOEMs,

thebrandsdrivingthis,andtheircurrent

status.Forexample,wefoundthatintheUK,ChineseOEMshaveachievedamarketshare

of4.4%,whileinThailandtheyhavesurpassed10%.

2.Themainfactorsinfluencinginterestand

disinterestinpurchasingaChineseEV.

Theseincludedemographicandautomotive

profiles(e.g.,brandofthecurrentcar,annualmileage).Wediscoveredthatprospects’

demographicprofilesarehomogeneousinItalyandSpain;inGermany,therearesignificant

differencesbetweenurbanandcountrysidedwellers,premium-branddriversandnon-

premium-branddrivers,andcompanyownersandmanagementrespondents.

3.Aforecastforeachmarketofthethree

definedcategoriesofChineseOEMs.Wefoundthat,allotherthingsbeingequal,

EVstart-upsarelikelytobesuccessfulinGermanyandtheUS;inSpain,domestic

marketincumbentscouldaspiretocapturemarketshareintheentry-levelsegments.

6

REPORT:CHINESEELECTRICVEHICLES:DRAGORDRIVERFORGLOBALMARKETS?

RECOMMENDATIONS

Ourrecommendationcontainsacalltoactionforthreemarketplayers:

1.IncumbentOEMswithrootsprimarilyinEuropeandNorthAmerica

2.ChineseOEMsinterestedinglobalizingtheiroperations

3.Distributorsandlargedealergroups

Incumbents

Afteryearsofsalesgrowthandhighprofitability(especiallypost-COVIDyears),incumbentsare

finallyfacingincreasingcompetitivepressureinChinaandinglobalmarkets.Forincumbents,ignoringthedevelopingcapabilitiesand

ambitionsofChineseEVmanufacturersisnot

anoption.Therefore,thereisanurgentneedtorespond,andincumbentsshould:

-Emphasizebrandreputation.Inthepremiumandluxurysegments,incumbentOEMs

maystillbenefitfromestablishedtrustandcustomersseekingspecificproductfeaturesandqualities.However,thatreputationmustbesupportedbysuperiorproductqualityandsubstancetobesustainable.

-Emphasizedomesticoriginandproduction.OEMswithregionalsupplychainsandstrongvaluecreationremainthefirstchoicefor

manyrespondents.Localproductionshouldbereinforcedwhilecreatingresilient,sustainable,circularsupplychains.

-Leveragedealernetworks.Buildatrusted,

dense,reliableretailnetworkwhileintegratingtraditionalbrick-and-mortarsalesandservicewithaseamlessdigitalapproach.

-CreatepartnershipsandJVswithChineseOEMs.AfterinvestinginthedevelopmentoftheChinesecarindustryfordecadeswithJVsinChina,nowisthetimeforJVswithChinese

OEMsinEuropeandtheUS.Thiswillallow

incumbentstocapitalizeonthespeedandcostadvantagesoftheChineseOEMs,particularlyinEVbatterytechnologyandentry-level

vehiclesegments.

-Emphasizecustomerloyalty.Developa

360-degreeactionplan(product,marketing,sales)tocapitalizeonthecustomerbase

accumulatedoverthepastyears;thisisanincumbent’smostsignificantasset.

ChineseOEMs

Inanefforttoglobalizetheiractivities,whichbeganintheearly2000s,ChineseOEMsappeartohavefoundarecipeforsuccessthanksto

electromobilityandintegrativeactivitiesalongtheEVvaluechain.However,thisachievementdoesnotcomewithoutchallenges.Chinese

OEMsontheirpathtoglobalizationshouldconsiderthefollowing:

-“MadeinChina”isnotyetsynonymouswithqualityinmanylargemarkets.AswelearnedfromJapaneseandSouthKoreanOEMsin

recentdecades,buildingareputationforhighqualityrequirestimeandmultiplesuccessful,reliablegenerationsofvehicles.Itisessentialtoprioritizeachievingthathighquality

beforelaunchingnewproducts,torefineanddifferentiatepositioning,andtodevelopclearpositioningofbrandsoutsideofChina.

-Structuredsalesnetworksarelacking.

It’simportanttoformpartnershipswith

large,well-establisheddealershipgroups,

particularlyinurbanareaswhereinterest

inChineseEVsishigh.Itiscrucialtoensureacleardifferentiationfromotherbrands

withinthesalesnetwork—merelyaddinganewbrandtoadealership’sexistingportfoliomaynotsuffice.

-Differentiateyourgo-to-marketstrategy.Customerrequirementsvarysignificantly

evenwithinEurope.Focusontargetingearlyadopterswithhighpurchaseinterestand

adaptyourgo-to-marketstrategyaccordingly.Considergrantinggreaterautonomytolocal

managementindecision-makingforproductandvolumeplanning.

-Prioritizebusinessandfleetcustomers.

EspeciallyinEurope,premiumChineseEVsrequirededicatedprogramsforbusiness

andfleetcustomers.Owingtofavorabletaxtreatmentandcorporateenvironmental,

social,andgovernance(ESG)requirements,thesecustomersplayacriticalrolein

gainingrelevancewithintheEuropean

market,necessitatingused-carprogramsthateffectivelymaintainhighresalevaluesandensureattractiveleasingrates.

ARTHURD.LITTLE

7

Distributors&dealergroups

Inrecentyears,theriseoftheonline-sales-

onlyapproachadoptedbysomenewentrants,alongwiththeagencymodel,ledtoquestionsaboutthefutureroleofdealers.ADL’sresearchhighlightsthecontinuedimportanceof

dealerships,especiallyinprovidingservice,andrevealsthattheabsenceofaservice

networkcandeterpotentialcustomersfrompurchasingaspecificbrand.AsChineseEVsexpandinternationally,particularlyinEuropeandSoutheastAsia,distributorsanddealer

groupsshouldreact:

-Taketheentrepreneurialriskandpartner

withChineseOEMs,butconductthoroughduediligence.Inthe1990s,dealers

participatedinthesuccessofJapaneseandlaterKoreanbrandsintheUSandEurope.Thisstorycanberepeated.However,distributorsanddealersshouldnotblindlyjumponthe

Chinesebandwagon.Instead,theyshould

increasetheirchancesofselectingpotentialwinnersbyunderstandingthefactorsthatwilldeterminesuccessandconductinga

comprehensive,structuredassessmentofbrandsseekingpartnerships.

-LeverageChinesebrandstoaddress

underservedcustomersegments.Witha

well-developedproductportfoliofocused

onEVs,sellingChinesevehiclesmaypresentanopportunitytotargetmarketsegments

intermsofpriceandbodytypethatremainunaddressedbytraditionalOEMs.

-Adapttonewcustomersegmentsandtestnewofferings.Addresspotentialconcernsaboutqualitybyreducingpurchasebarriers.Thisincludesexploringnewsalesmodels

suchassubscription-basedoptions.

FORINCUMBENTS,IGNORINGTHE

DEVELOPING

CAPABILITIESAND

AMBITIONSOFCHINESEEVMANUFACTURERS

ISNOTANOPTION

-Eventuallyofferservice-onlyfordirectsalesbrands.RevenuereductionfromEVscanbe

offsetthroughthedesignofaspecificserviceofferingforbrandsthatfollowanonlinesalesapproachorthatstilllackawell-developed

dealernetwork.Otherwise,incoming

ChineseOEMswithoutadevelopedservicenetworkmayseekpartnershipswithnationalindependentrepairchains.

-Prepareforanewused-carmarketwithvehiclesfromChinesemanufacturers.

ChineseOEMshavepenetratedseveral

Europeanmarketsviatherental-saleschannel.Rentalcompaniestypicallyholdtheircars

forashortperiodbeforeputtingthemontheused-carmarket,where,intheabsenceofa

franchisedealernetwork,theyareoftensoldthroughauctionstoindependentdealerships.ThisgroupofdealerswillbeamongthefirsttoencounterChineseused-carstocks.ItiscrucialforthemtoanalyzewhichChinesebrandsarethebestprospectsfortheused-carmarket

andidentifycustomergroupsthatmaybeparticularlyinterestedinthesevehicles.

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8

REPORT:CHINESEELECTRICVEHICLES:DRAGORDRIVERFORGLOBALMARKETS?

1.CHINA’SPASSENGERVEHICLE

INDUSTRY

Chinabecamethelargestpassengervehicle

marketintheworldin2009andhasgrowneversincewithaCAGRof7%.InthisReport,wefocusontwopowertrains:ICEandEVs.Thelattercanbedividedintobatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)andhybridvehicles,whichincludeplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs)andfullhybridelectricvehicles(FHEVs).Fuelcellelectricvehicleswerenotconsidered.AsshowninFigure1,27million

ICEandEVpassengervehiclesweresoldinChinain2023.

Inrecentyears,Chinahasbecomethelead

marketforelectrification,withEVsexperiencingrobustsalesstartingin2020.Since2021,hybridvehiclesalesincreasedby360%,andBEV

salesincreasedby129%.EVmodelsreachedamarketshareof35%,whilesalesforICEmodelsdecreasedbymorethan1millionunitsinthe

sameperiod.

CarsalesinChinaareexpectedtoremain

stable,withagradualsubstitutionofEVsforICEvehicles(atanannualrateofaround10%).

Atthisrate,by2025,everysecondnewcarinChinawillbeeitherfullelectricorhybrid,andEVswillhaveamarketshareofaround70%by2030.

Aswewroteinlastyear’sADLReport“

Global

ElectricMobilityReadinessIndex2023

”,thediffusionofEVmodelshasbeenstimulated

bythefollowingthreefactors:

1.ExcellentEVinfrastructure.Chinahasthemostwell-developedchargingnetworkintheworldintermsofdensity.

2.SystematicsupportforthedevelopmentoftheEVindustrythroughregulationandincentives.Theseincludebenefitsforboth

EVOEMsandcustomers,includingexemptionfromvehiclepurchasetaxorexemptionfromlicenseplaterestrictions.

3.CoercivemeasuresfornewICEvehicles.

Localgovernmentshaveputinplace

highregistrationbarriersforICEvehicles,includinglimitingnewlicenseplates.

Figure1.PassengervehiclesalesinChina

27

27

Millionunits(rounded)

27

27

27

26

26

26

24

NotrelevantduetoCOVID-19

vehiclesICE1

Passenger

8

9

22

9

10

11

12

19

14

17

17

vehiclesBEV

12

Passenger

12

18

11

10

9

9

17

8

1

2020

6

Passenger

vehicleshybrid

3534556667

vehiclesother2

2

2022

Passenger

1

2021

1

2030F

1

2029F

1

2028F

1

1

2026F

1

2025F

1

2023

..1

2027F

2024F

EVsalesmarketshare(%)

65%

6%

15%

28%

35%

46%

52%

61%

56%

71%

68%

Note:(1)PassengerICEcarsincludemildhybrid(MHEV);(2)“other”includesFCEV(fuelcellEV)andEREV(extended-rangeEV).

Source:ArthurD.Little,ChinaAssociationofAutomobileManufacturers(CAAM),GlobalData

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ARTHURD.LITTLE

9

GLOBALEXPANSIONOF

CARSMANUFACTUREDINCHINAHASJUSTBEGUN

Chinarecentlybecametheworld’slargest

exporterofpassengervehicles.Untilrecently,carproductioninChinahasprimarilycateredtodomesticdemand,with26millionpassengervehiclesproducedin2023.Inthefuture,

passengervehicleproductionwilldecouple

fromdomesticsalesandgrowatanannualrateof3%.Thisgrowthwillleadtomorethan30

millioncarsbeingproducedeachyearby2025andalmost33millionby2030(seeFigure2).

ThisgrowthisdueinparttotheChinesecar

industry’sfocusonEVs.ProductionofICEvehiclesisexpectedtodecreasefrom65%in2023tojust31%in2030,whileEVsseeanannualgrowthof

14%.By2030,EVsareexpectedtorepresent69%oftotalChinesevehicleproduction.

Theproductionincrease,combinedwithstabledomesticsalesandagrowingglobalinterestinEVs,willhelpsustainChineseOEMs’pushinto

marketsoutsideChina.Indeed,between2021

and2023,exportsofpassengervehiclesrose

from1.5millionin2021to4millionin2023,withagrowthrateofmorethan300%forEVs.This

underpinnedChina’srisetobecometheworld’slargestexporterofcars,surpassingthepreviouslargestcarexporter(Japan).

UNTILRECENTLY,CAR

PRODUCTIONINCHINA

HASPRIMARILYCATEREDTODOMESTICDEMAND

ThegrowthofChina’scarexportsisdrivenbythefollowing:

-The“MadeinChina”Strategy2014and

itsfocusonEVpowertrains.Since2014,

ChineseOEMshavebenefitedfromsubstantialsubsidiesandpurchaseincentivesthat

fosteredtheestablishmentandgrowthof

China’sdomesticEVindustry.Earlierandmoreconsistentlythaninotherregions,China’s

governmentandindustrysawopportunitiesintheshifttoalternativepowertrains.Beginningwitharequirementtoimproveairquality

inChina’smega-cities,Beijing’seffortsto

stimulateelectricmobilityhelpedcreatea

highlycompetitivedomesticEVmarket.Inthenextyearorso,weexpectthismarkettoenteraconsolidationphase,resultinginasmallernumberofstrongEVplayersreadytoexpandglobally.

Figure2.PassengervehicleproductioninChina

323333

Millionunits(rounded)

31

32

30

29

NotrelevantduetoCOVID-19

10

26

11

12

PassengervehiclesICE1

24

14

13

21

15

19

16

17

17

17

16

15

PassengervehiclesBEV

18

12

13

17

11

9

6

5

6

6

5

5

5

4

3

1

4

3

Passengervehicleshybrid

1

2

20202021202220232024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F2030F

69%

44%

54%

62%

28%

35%

50%

58%

65%

16%

EVproductionmarketshare(%)

6%

Note:FCEVandEREVnotconsideredduetolowproductionfigures

Source:ArthurD.Little,CAAM,IHS,GlobalData

10

REPORT:CHINESEELECTRICVEHICLES:DRAGORDRIVERFORGLOBALMARKETS?

-China’slargeproductioncapacity.

Significantgovernmentsubsidiesaimed

atincentingthedomesticEVsegmentbut

withdecreaseddomesticdemand,promptingChineseOEMstoseekmarketsoutsideChina(seeFigure3).

-Theglobaltrendtowardelectrification.

Thecloseproximityandtightcontrolofcrucialrawmaterials(e.g.,copperandlithium,whichareessentialformanufacturingbatterycells

andmodules)allowChineseOEMstoreducetheirdependencyonthird-partysuppliersandcost-effectivelyofferawiderangeofBEVs,includingsmallcarsnotyetbeingwidelymanufacturedby

WesternOEMs.

CHINESEOEMMARKETSHARESETTOGROW

INMAJORMARKETS

SalesofChinesebrandsareexpectedtooutpaceoverallcarsalesinallmainglobalautomotive

markets(seeFigure4).However,themarket

shareChineseOEMsareexpectedtocapturevariessignificantlyacrossregions.InEuropeandSoutheastAsia,ChineseOEMswillexperienceannualdouble-digitgrowth(14%and15%,

respectively).

Figure3.Passengervehiclesalesvs.productioninChina

Millionunits(rounded)

Notrelevantdue

32323333

toCOVID-19

293031

27

26

26272627262727

24

24

22

21

1919

20202021202220232024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F2030F

SalesProduction

Source:ArthurD.Little,CAAM,IHS,GlobalData

Figure4.GlobalexpansionofChineseOEMs

CAGR

(2022–2030)

+3%+14%

2028F

2024F

2030F

2026F

2022

Salesvolume

ShareChineseOEM

15.8M9%

15.8M9%

15.2M7%

12.7M4%

15.7M8%

Europe

(incl.Russia&Türkiye)

Salesvolume

ShareChineseOEM

8.66%

+4%+15%

7.95%

9.36%

9.97%

7.33%

SoutheastAsia

(incl.Oceania&India)

Salesvolume

ShareChineseOEM

4.91%

5.01%

5.71%

5.31%

5.11%

Japan&Korea

NorthAmerica

SouthAmerica

Salesvolume

12.8

15

15.7

15.4

15.1

0%+7%

+2%

ShareChineseOEM

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

+7%

Salesvolume

2.9

2.9

3.3

3.7

4.1

+5%

ShareChineseOEM

4%

5%

5%

5%

5%

+7%

+3%+4%

3.69%

4.09%

3.58%

4.39%

4.19%

Salesvolume

MiddleEast&Africa

ShareChineseOEM

Source:ArthurD.Little,IHS

ARTHURD.LITTLE

11

Europe(includingTürkiye)willseeconsistent

growthinChineseOEMmarketshareuntil2026.AnnualsalesbyChinesemanufacturersare

expectedtoreach1.6millionvehiclesbytheendofthedecadeinthoseregions,reaching8%to10%oftheentireEuropeanpassengervehicle

market,inpartduetotheplannedinstallationofalocalmanufacturingbaseinEurope.IntheRussianmarket,ChineseOEMswillbenefitfromthecountry’sisolationfromglobalautomotivevaluestreams—butonlybyexportinglow-end,traditionallypoweredvehicles.

InSoutheastAsia(includingIndiaandAustralia),ChineseOEMswillcontinueincreasingtheir

marketshareandareexpectedtoreachan

annualsalesvolumeofmorethan700,000

vehiclesby2030,between6%and8%ofthe

entirepassenger-vehiclemarketintheregion.ReasonsforthisgrowthincludetheabsenceofstronglocalOEMplayers(asidefromIndia)thatcancatertotherisingdemandforaffordable

EVs.

TheJapanese,SouthKorean,NorthAmerican,

andSouthAmericanmarketswillseemuch

slowergrowthforChineseOEMs.Although

they’reexpectedtooutgrowoverallmarkets

slightlyandthustakesomemarketsharefromestablishedplayers,ChineseOEMsareexpectedtoplayanicherole(under5%marketshare).InJapan,Korea,andNorthAmerica,Chinesecars

willlikelynotgaintractionuntil2030.

Regardinggovernmentsupport,coststructures,andsupplychains,thesecountries,inparticular,havearobustdomesticcarindustry,special

customerrequirements,andtariffsandnon-tariffpoliciesinplace.AslowertrajectoryintransportelectrificationinthosemarketswillalsodampendemandforChinesecarexports.

IntheMiddleEastandAfrica,whereChinese

OEMsalreadyhaveamarketshareof8%,growthforChinesecarswillbeinlinewiththeregion’smarketgrowth.WeexpecttheChinesesharetostabilizebetween8%and10%.

DIFFERENTIATEDVIEWONCHINESECAROEMISREQUIRED

Basedoncriteriasuchashistory,age/maturity,salesvolume,product/powertrainstrategy,

andpartnershipstrategy,playersintheChinesecarindustrycanbecategorizedintothreemaintypes(seeTable1):

1.EVstart-ups,launchedasresultoftheMadeinChinastrategy

2.IncumbentswithahistoryofinternationalJVsorinvestments

3.Domesticmarketincumbents

Table1.CategorizationandmaincharacteristicsofChineseOEMs

NON-EXHAUSTIVE

DOMESTICMARKETINCUMBENTS

EVSTART-UPS

INCUMBENTSWITHHISTORYOFJVORFOREIGNINVESTMENTS

Strategic

focus/ambition

Portfoliostrategy

Brandpositioning

Segments&models

Positioningcategories