中航重机：大锻机有望迈入收获期宏山公司发展进入快车道

11中航重机（600765.SH中航重机（600765.SH）证券研究报告yangchen＠人民币(元)27.0025.0023.0021.0019.0017.0015.0013.00成交金额(百万元)1,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000人民币(元)27.0025.0023.0021.0019.0017.0015.0013.00成交金额(百万元)1,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000司积极开拓重点型号市场，已陆续开始交付重点型号产品，随着在重点型号和民用航空市场的同步发力，宏山公司发展逐步进入231030240130240430240731成交金额中航重机沪深300项目12/2212/2312/24E12/25E12/26E营业收入(百万元)10,57010,57712,23314,33716,882营业收入增长率20.25%0.07%15.66%17.20%17.75%归母净利润(百万元)1,2021,3291,5681,8852,268归母净利润增长率34.93%10.55%18.05%20.18%20.32%摊薄每股收益(元)0.8160.9031.0591.2721.531每股经营性现金流净额0.530.400.891.221.43ROE(归属母公司)(摊薄)11.56%11.56%12.21%12.99%13.68%P/E38.0921.1621.4917.8814.86P/B4.402.452.622.322.03231030240130240430240731成交金额中航重机沪深300项目12/2212/2312/24E12/25E12/26E营业收入(百万元)10,57010,57712,23314,33716,882营业收入增长率20.25%0.07%15.66%17.20%17.75%归母净利润(百万元)1,2021,3291,5681,8852,268归母净利润增长率34.93%10.55%18.05%20.18%20.32%摊薄每股收益(元)0.8160.9031.0591.2721.531每股经营性现金流净额0.530.400.891.221.43ROE(归属母公司)(摊薄)11.56%11.56%12.21%12.99%13.68%P/E38.0921.1621.4917.8814.86P/B4.402.452.622.322.03来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所我们认为，公司是航空锻造龙头，随着高端产能的释放，公司市场份额、盈利能力有望持续提升，同时随着国产大飞机行业景气来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所22 3 3 4 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 533本持平，或说明公司盈利能力有所改善。剔除宏山公司并表3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000aa营业收入（百万）——同比增长率（%）环比增长率（%）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q350%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%0aa归母净利润（百万）——同比增长率（%）环比增长率（%）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q3来源：wind，国金证券研究所来源：wind，国金证券研究所40%35%30%20%15%10% 0%毛利率（%）归母净利率（%）期间费用率（%）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q3同比-4.1pct，环比-1.0pct；财务费用率0.6%，同比+0.7pct，环比+0.4412%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%销售费用率（%）管理费用率（%）研发费用率（%）----财务费用率（%）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q3-资产减值损失（百万）信用减值损失（百万）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q322Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q3来源：wind，国金证券研究所来源：wind，国金证券研究所截至24Q3末公司固定资产为52.32亿元4,000-固定资产（百万）在建工程（百万）450400-资本性支出（百万）同比增长率（%）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q3来源：wind，国金证券研究所来源：wind，国金证券研究所截至24Q3末公司合同负债1.85亿元，较24Q2末减少0.42亿，减少幅度-18.47%；存货700.0000600.0000500.0000400.0000300.0000200.0000100.0000n合同负债（百万）.预付款项（百万）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q35,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500-aa存货（百万）——存货周转天数（天）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q325020050-来源：wind，国金证券研究所来源：wind，国金证券研究所551,5001,000500--500-1,000经营性净现金流（百万）收现比22Q122Q222Q322Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q0.2-66损益表（人民币百万元）资产负债表（人民币百万元）主营业务收入增长率主营业务成本%销售收入20218,790-6,30071.7%202210,57020.2%-7,47970.8%202310,5770.1%-7,26868.7%2024E12,23315.7%-8,24567.4%2025E14,33717.2%-9,58666.9%2026E16,88217.7%-11,23066.5%货币资金应收款项存货其他流动资产20216,1305,5953,23242620225,7356,8913,31620235,1928,7893,7211332024E5,8888,9363,0361952025E6,86110,4043,1752032026E8,03111,8533,341235毛利2,4903,0913,3093,9884,7525,652流动资产15,38416,05717,83518,05520,64423,462%销售收入28.3%29.2%31.3%32.6%33.1%33.5%%总资产78.2%76.2%70.1%70.0%71.8%74.2%营业税金及附加-29-30-61-61-72-84长期投资760882909909909909%销售收入0.3%0.3%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%固定资产2,7053,1335,4525,8366,1766,187销售费用-73-77-92-92-106-122%总资产13.7%14.9%21.4%22.6%21.5%19.6%%销售收入0.8%0.7%0.9%0.8%0.7%0.7%无形资产377347611666715756管理费用-657-757-764-832-953-1,114非流动资产4,3015,0287,5947,7368,1208,168%销售收入7.5%7.2%7.2%6.8%6.7%6.6%%总资产·21.8%·23.8%29.9%30.0%28.2%25.8%研发费用-346-434-661-765-892-1,047资产总计·19,685·21,08525,42925,79128,76331,629 %销售收入3.9%4.1%6.3%6.3%6.2%6.2%短期借款7462,2731,3671,1661,5601,654息税前利润（EBIT）1,3841,7931,7302,2392,7293,285应付款项4,7316,0127,6566,8937,5598,210%销售收入15.7%17.0%16.4%18.3%19.0%19.5%其他流动负债1,8371,2451,600905924755财务费用-8122-12-108-254-326流动负债7,3149,53010,6238,96410,04210,619%销售收入0.9%-0.2%0.1%0.9%1.8%1.9%长期贷款2,1043361,9202,6202,7202,820资产减值损失-345-293-179-236-163-167其他长期负债431424631522524507公允价值变动收益000000负债·9,849·10,29013,17412,10613,28613,947投资收益155-171555普通股股东权益9,36010,39311,48812,84114,51516,579 %税前利润13.5%n.a0.0%0.3%0.2%0.2%其中：股本1,0521,4721,4711,4711,4711,471营业利润1,1401,5361,5981,9322,3512,830未分配利润3,2884,2595,2946,6728,34610,410营业利润率13.0%14.5%15.1%15.8%16.4%16.8%少数股东权益4764027678449621,104营业外收支3-27455负债股东权益合计19,68521,08525,42925,79128,76331,629税前利润1,1441,5341,6051,9362,3562,835利润率13.0%14.5%15.2%15.8%16.4%16.8%比率分析··所得税-177-204-208-290-353-4252021202220232024E2025E2026E所得税率15.5%13.3%13.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%每股指标净利润9671,3301,3971,6462,0032,410每股收益0.8470.8160.9031.0591.2721.531少数股东损益761296977118142每股净资产8.9007.0597.8118.6689.79811.191归属于母公司的净利润8911,2021,3291,5681,8852,268每股经营现金净流1.4430.5260.4040.8881.2231.427 净利率10.1%11.4%12.6%12.8%13.1%13.4%每股股利0.0450.0500.1700.1300.1430.139回报率现金流量表（人民币百万元）净资产收益率14.86%9.52%11.56%11.56%12.21%12.99%2021202220232024E2025E2026E总资产收益率4.52%5.70%5.22%6.08%6.55%7.17%净利润9671,3301,3971,6462,0032,410投入资本收益率9.20%11.57%9.64%10.84%11.69%12.56%少数股东损益761296977118142增长率非现金支出651594551713695808主营业务收入增长率31.23%20.25%0.07%15.66%17.20%17.75%非经营收益-827472166194213EBIT增长率74.83%29.54%-3.51%29.38%21.89%20.38%营运资金变动-18-1,224-1,427-1,218-1,093-1,331净利润增长率159.05%34.93%10.55%18.05%20.18%20.32%经营活动现金净流1,5187745941,3061,7982,099总资产增长率25.65%7.11%20.61%1.42%11.52%9.96%资本开支-618-877-1,052-613-910-683资产管理能力投资46-51-1,066000应收账款周转天数103.3111.7163.6164.0163.0155.0其他290102555存货周转天数182.3159.8176.7140.0130.0120.0投资活动现金净流-281-918-2,116-608-905-678应付账款周转天数148.6123.3213.4180.0170.0160.0股权募资2,192079000固定资产周转天数99.583.0160.2140.3120.0100.0债权募资-324-209866411510189偿债能力其他-25-5617-392-416-428净负债/股东权益-33.35%-28.96%-15.54%-15.36%-16.68%-20.12%筹资活动现金净流1,843-265962