英文2024 年的全球支付 - 更简单的界面复杂的现实

The2024McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport

Globalpaymentsin2024:

Simplerinterfaces,complexreality

October2024

Mcsey

&company

The2024McKinseyGlobalPaymentsReport

Globalpaymentsin2024:Simplerinterfaces,

complexreality

ByPhilipBrunoandUzayrJeenah,withAmitGandhiandInêsGancho

Thetantalizingvisionforglobalpaymentshaslongbeenthatthey’dbesafe,simple,quick,inexpensive,andubiquitous.Thispromisehascomecloserwitheachnewtechnologicaladvance.However,instantpayment

systemshaveusheredintheDecoupledEra,atermcoinedinlastyear’sGlobalPaymentsReport.1Inthisnewworld,whilepaymentsaregettingquicker,theyareincreasinglydisconnectedfromaccounts,andplayers

haveproliferated,fragmentingthevaluechain,increasingcomplexity,andendangeringthevision.

With$1.8quadrillionflowsinglobalpaymentsannually,evensmallshiftsinhowpaymentsaredelivered

canreshapenotjustcompaniesbutentiresectorsoftheeconomy.Forexample,digitalwalletsandonline

paymentmethodshaveboostedonlineshopping,andmoreefficientpaymentsystemshavehelpedstreamlinesupplychainoperationsandimprovedbusinesses’cashflows.2

Thisyear’sreportexaminestheevolvingglobalpaymentsecosystemandhighlightswhereplayerscancapitalizeonnewdynamics.OuranalysisisbasedprimarilyonMcKinsey’sGlobalPaymentsMap,3which

coversmorethan25paymentproductsin48countriesandaccountsformorethan90percentofglobalGDP.

Westartbyexaminingtheoverallpaymentsindustry,howithasgrown,andtherateatwhichthatgrowthcanbeexpectedtocontinue.Then,welookatsixtrendsshapingtheindustryoverthenextseveralyears.Lastly,wedescribethreeareaswhereoperatorsanddisrupterswillwanttoinvesttobewellpositionedoverthenextfewyears.

Highlightsincludetheforecastthattotalpaymentsrevenueswillgrow5percentayearfrom2023to2028,

heldbackbydeclininginterestrates.Wealsoexpectthecontinuingproliferationofinstantpayments,fueledbynewusecases,suchasinstantpayoutsforgigeconomyworkers.Specializedintermediariescouldfurtherfragmentthevaluechain,addingcomplexityand,insomecases,cost.Finally,theexpandingcostoffraudisspurringregulatorstoaddressitmoreaggressivelyandpaymentsplayerstoinvestinincreasedsecurity.

In2023,theglobalpaymentsindustryhandled

3.4trilliontransactions

Globalpaymentsrevenueswillcontinuetogrow

In2023,theglobalpaymentsindustryhandled3.4trilliontransactions,accountingfor$1.8quadrillionin

valueandarevenuepoolof$2.4trillion.Revenuesgrew7percentannuallyfrom2018to2023,supportedbycontinuedconsumerandcommercialtransactiondigitizationandhigherinterestrates.Ouranalysissuggestsrevenuegrowthwillbeslowerinthenextfewyearsat5percentayear,inlinewithexpectednominalGDP

growth.Thiswillresultinanadditional$700billionofrevenue,foratotalof$3.1trillionbytheendof2028(Exhibit1).That’s35percentofthetotalbankingrevenuepool,asharethatunderlinestheimportanceof

paymentstobanksandthesignificanceofinvestinginpaymenttechnologiestostayaheadofcompetitionfromspecialistplayers.

1

2

3

“Onthecuspofthenextpaymentsera:Futureopportunitiesforbanks,”McKinsey,September18,2023.

SupplyChainBrain’sThinkTank,“Moreefficientpaymentsmeansmoreefficientsupplychains,”blogentrybySvenHinrichsen,June1,2023.“GlobalPaymentsMap,”McKinsey,accessedOctober2024.

Globalpaymentsin2024:Simplerinterfaces,complexreality2

Exhibit1

Globalpaymentsrevenuegrewsevenpercentperyearfrom2018to2023.

Globalpaymentsrevenue,2013–28F,$trillion

Asia–Pacific

NorthAmerica

EMEA¹

LatinAmerica

+5%

peryear

CAGR,2018–23,

2.4

+7%

peryear

Total

0.2

0.5

0.7

1.1

LatinAmerica

2.2

1.9

0.2

0.4

0.6

1.0

EMEA¹

+7%

peryear

1.7

1.7

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.9

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.8

0.1

0.3

0.5

1.0

NorthAmerica

0.1

1.2

0.4

0.3

Asia–Pacific

0.5

3.1

%

7

16

11

7

4

Shareof

banking

²revenues,%

2013

34

2018

36

2021

36

2020

34

20222023

3535

2028forecast

Note:Figuresmaynotsumtolistedtotals,becauseofrounding.

1Europe,MiddleEast,andAfrica.GrowthprojectionsexcludeRussia.2Totalbankingrevenues(feeandinterest)beforeriskcost.

Source:McKinseyGlobalPaymentsMap

McKinsey&Company

Netinterestincomecontributesapproximately47percenttothetotalpaymentsrevenuepool.Thisrepresentsathree-percentage-pointshareincreasefrom2021,ayearmarkedbyhistoricallylowinterestratesinmost

markets.

Weexpecttransaction-relatedrevenuegrowthtoslow,basedonthreetrends.First,sluggishgrowthinGDPandpersonalexpenditureswilldragdownpaymentsvaluegrowth.Second,thetransactionmixwillshiftfromhigh-yieldcreditcardstowardlower-yieldaccount-to-accountpayments,includingelectronicfundstransfersandinstantpayments.Finally,regulatorypressureoncardinterchangefees,whichcontributed49percentoftransaction-relatedrevenuesin2023,mightlimitrateincreasesorevenreduceratesinsomemarkets.

Netinterestincomeisforecasttoexperienceamorepronounceddeclineingrowthbetween2023and2028.Weexpectittogrow4percentayear,notablylowerthanthe7percentofthepriorfiveyears.Thiswillbeduetomargincompression,withinterestratesinmanymajormarketspeakinginthefirsthalfof2024anddepositgrowthslowingwiththecontinuedtransitionfromlow-yieldcheckingdepositstohigher-yieldproducts.

3Globalpaymentsin2024:Simplerinterfaces,complexreality

Theglobalpaymentsrevenuepoolremainsrobustandpromising.Itgrew11percentin2023,propelledbyaspikeininterestrates,andgeneratedmorethan$2.4trillion—anall-timehighinlinewiththeprojectionsinlastyear’sreport.Revenuegrowthwasbroadlydistributed;Europe,theMiddleEast,andAfrica(EMEA)andAsia–Pacificcontributedtwo-thirds,inlinewiththerevenuedistributionfor2023.Thesesolidresultsandanexpected5percentgrowthratekeepthemarketonpacetomeetMcKinsey’sfive-yearforecastofmorethan$3.1trillioninpaymentsrevenueby2028.

Anotherwaytolookatpaymentsrevenuesisthroughthecommercialandconsumercustomersegmentsandtheproductsineachgroup.Thefiveyearsfrom2018to2023witnessedasteadyandsignificant

revenueshiftfromconsumertocommercialineverymarket.Asia–Pacificcommercialrevenuesincreasedfrom60to62percent,EMEAfrom53to57percent,NorthAmericafrom33to35percent,andLatin

Americafrom41to45percent(Exhibit2).

Exhibit2

Asia–Pacificaccountsfornearlyhalfofglobalpaymentsrevenue.

Globalpaymentsrevenue,bytypeandlocation,2023

Asia–PacificNorthAmericaEMEA¹

Latin

America

Global

paymentsrevenues,2023,%

62

35

57

45

65

55

43

38

$1.1$0.7$0.5$0.2

Globalpaymentsrevenues,2023,$trillion

Commercial(52%oftotal)

Consumer(48%oftotal)

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.1Europe,MiddleEast,andAfrica.

Source:McKinseyGlobalPaymentsMap

McKinsey&Company

Globalpaymentsin2024:Simplerinterfaces,complexreality4

Exhibit2continued

Globalpaymentsrevenue,bytypeandlocation,2023

Latin

Asia–PacificNorthAmericaEMEA¹America

Global

paymentsrevenues,2023,%

2

8

6

14

5

10

16

28

21

8

22

11

20

2

22

3

9

5

15

14

4

4

3

38

18

16

7

30

14

6

14

7

$1.1$0.7$0.5$0.2

Commercial(52%oftotal)

Cross-border²

Accountnetinterestincome(NII)³

Domesticfees⁴Creditcards

Consumer(48%oftotal)

Cross-border⁵AccountNII³

Domesticfees⁴Creditcards

Globalpaymentsrevenues,2023,$trillion

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.

1Europe,MiddleEast,andAfrica.2Cross-borderpaymentservices(B2B,B2C).3Netinterestincomeoncurrentaccountsandoverdrafts.⁴Feerevenuesondomesticpaymenttransactionsandaccountmaintenance(excludingcreditcards).⁵RemittanceservicesandC2Bcross-borderpaymentservices.

Source:McKinseyGlobalPaymentsMap

McKinsey&Company

Sixtrendswilldefinethenextfiveyears

Overthepastdecade,thecombinedmarketcapitalizationofspecialistpaymentscompanieshasincreasedfrom$400billionto$1.4trillion.4Inaddition,overthepastfiveyears,therehasbeenanexplosioninfintechunicorns;morethan384withacombinedvaluationof$1trillioncameonline,atenfoldincreasefrom39

unicornsfiveyearsago.Theseconditionssetthebackdropforthesixtrendsweexpectwilldefinethenextfiveyears.

1.Thedeclineofcashwillcontinueunevenly

Globalcashusagenowstandsat80percentof2019levelsandcontinuestodecreaseat4percentayear.The$26trillioninpaymentsstillmadeincashrepresentsamassiveopportunityfordigitization,butthe

transitionwillunfolddifferentlyindifferentregions.

4McKinseyPanoramaInnovation;D.

5Globalpaymentsin2024:Simplerinterfaces,complexreality

Overthepastdecade,thecombinedmarketcapitalizationofspecialistpaymentscompanieshasincreasedfrom

$400billionto$1.4trillion

Instantpaymentsarerapidlyreplacingcashindevelopingmarketswithlowcardpenetration,suchasIndia,Malaysia,andIndonesia.5InIndia,theshareisexpectedtodeclinefrom23percentofconsumerspendingtolessthan10percentby2028.Inparallel,creditcardusageisgrowingfromalowbaseasconsumersareattractedbycreditavailabilityandrewardsprograms.

Incard-dominatedmarketssuchastheUnitedStates,wherecashtransactionsrepresentjust5percent

ofthevalueofconsumerpayments,cashusagewillcontinuethegradualdeclineinitiatedbytheCOVID-19

pandemic.Thedeclinewillalsocontinuegraduallyindevelopedeconomieswithastrongculturalpreferenceforcash,especiallyamongolderpeople.Forexample,weexpectthecashshareofconsumerpaymentsin

Japantodropfrom28percentin2023to22percentby2028.Therateofdeclinewillslowto1to2percentperyearfor2023–28from3percentfor2018–23.

2.Instantpaymentswillcontinuetodisplaceotherpaymentmethods

Domesticpaymentsystemshavemodernizedrapidlyworldwideoverthepasttwodecades.Real-time

paymentsinfrastructureshavebeenestablishedineverymajormarketexceptCanada.Theyhavebeen

supplementedwithinnovationssuchasQRcodeenablement,digitalwallets,openbanking,andbiometric

authenticationandpropelledbyanincreasedurgencyforcountriestoestablishnationalpaymentsystems.Webelievethesenewmethodswillacceleratethephasingoutofcashandchecks.Cards,however,will

continuetobeanessentialpaymentmethodforyearstocome,foropen-looppaymentssuchasMastercardandVisaandclosed-looppaymentslikeemployeecards.

Weseetwotypesofmarketsforinstantpayments:onewherecardsareentrenched,asintheUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates,andtheotherwherecashandcashequivalentshavebeenthehistoricincumbent,asinBrazilandIndia.

Incard-concentratedmarkets,instantpaymentswillhavedifficultydisplacingcardsforC2Bcommerce

butwillaccountforsomeofthegrowth.Thelargestdisplacementopportunitiesareinbillpayments,wherechecksorcasharetoday’spreferredpaymentmethod.IntheUnitedStates,paymentsviaZellehavegrown,sincetheapp’s2017launch,byanaverageof50percentyearlyandbymorethan100percentinconsumerpaymentstosmallbusinesses.

Inhistoricallycash-heavymarkets,instantpaymentswilllikelycaptureC2Bshareoverthenextfewyearsinbothpointofsale(POS)andbill-pay,oftenwithgovernmentsupport.Thisisalreadyhappeninginmarkets

likeBrazil,India,andThailand.InBrazil,cashpaymentsaremigratingfromBoleto,abarcode-basedvouchersystem,toPix,aninstant-paymentsrail.

5RominaBanduraandSundarR.Ramanujam,“Developinginclusivedigitalpaymentsystems,”CenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,September21,2021.

Globalpaymentsin2024:Simplerinterfaces,complexreality6

Inthesemarkets,threekeyinitiativeshavedriventheadoptionofinstantpayments.First,regulatorymandateshaveenablednetworkeffects,overlayservices,interoperability,andinnovativeusecases.Second,merchant

propositionshavebecomemorecompetitive,withpricedifferentiation,betterfraudprevention,andhigherauthorizationratesthancards.Third,consumerpropositionshavebecomemorecompelling,including

highertransactionlimits,enhancedfraudprotections,andwidespreadavailabilityamongchannelsandcounterparties.

WeexpectsimilarinterventionsintheEuropeanUniontoboostadoptionasnewinstant-paymentregulationswillenforcecostparity.Weestimatethatthenumberofinstant-paymenttransactionsintheEuropeanUnionwillincreasefromaroundthreebilliontodaytoalmost30billionby2028,anaverageannualgrowthrateof50percent.

3.Growingadoptionofdigitalpublicinfrastructureswillcatalyzedigitalpayments

Digitalpublicinfrastructure(DPI)initiativesinmarketslikeBrazil,Estonia,andIndiahavesupported

competitive,robust,inclusive,andefficientdigitalpaymentsecosystems.CriticalprerequisitesforaDPIareacomprehensivedigitalIDsystem,commonstandardsforapplicationinterfaces,interoperabilityamong

financialservicesproviders,andtheinclusionofnontraditionaldatasources.

WeexpecttoseeabroaderrolloutofDPIinitiativesinemergingmarketsthroughacombinationofimportedtechnology,suchastheIndiaStack(seesidebar,“DevelopmentofdigitalinfrastructureinIndia”),and

domesticbuilds,suchastheSingaporeFinancialDataExchange.MarketsasfarafieldasIndonesia,Nigeria,andPeruwillbenefitfromthenextwaveofDPIadoption.Developedeconomieswithoutsuchinitiativesmaybeconstrainedintheirabilitytocombatfraudorsupportthedigitizationofservices.

DevelopmentofdigitalinfrastructureinIndia

Indialauncheditsdigitalinfrastructurestackin2010withAadhaar,abiometricdigitalID.¹Untilthen,nearlyhalfthe

populationhadnouniversallyrecognizedIDcard.TheIndianbankingsectorleveragedAadhaartoverifycustomer

identitiesinstantly,significantlyreducingfraudrisk.Coupledwiththegovernment’spushforfinancialinclusionthroughtheprimeminister’spublicfinancescheme,Aadhaarhelpedincreasebankaccountownershipfrom35percentin2011to80percentby2017.²

ThesecondpartofthestackistheUnifiedPaymentsInterface(UPI),amobileappthatfacilitatesinterbankpeer-to-peerandperson-to-merchanttransactions.

Athirdinitiative,theOpenCreditEnablementNetwork,leveragesthestack’sopendataecosystemtodigitizethelendingprocessandfacilitatefinancialaccessfortheinformalsector.

DPIframeworkslikeIndia’scanempowereconomiesbypromotingfinancialinclusion,fosteringinnovation,andlimitingfraud.IndiaismakingactivestridestoexportitsDPItechnology.IthassuccessfullylaunchedUPIintencountries,

includingBhutan,Nepal,Singapore,andtheUnitedArabEmirates.³

¹“AboutUIDAI,”UniqueIdentificationAuthorityofIndia,accessedOctober2024.

²SeeCristianAlonsoetal.,Stackingupthebenefits:LessonsfromIndia’sdigitaljourney,IMFworkingpapernumber23/78,March2023.³“UPItobeexpandedin20countriesbyRBI,”ICICIDirect,June20,2024.

7Globalpaymentsin2024:Simplerinterfaces,complexreality

Online

In-person

4.Intermediarieswillcontinuetotakesharefromincumbents

CommerceisaggregatingontoplatformssuchasShopify,Square,andToast,aswellasmarketplaceslikeAmazon,eBay,andEtsy.Weestimatethatthesevenuescombinedprocess30percentofglobalconsumerpurchasestoday,equalto25to30percentofspendingintheEuropeanUnionand35to40percentin

theUnitedStates(Exhibit3).Theshareishigherinthesmallandmedium-sizeenterprise(SME)segment,

whereplayersincludingSquare,SumUp,andToastofferintegratedsolutionsasindependentsoftwarevendors(ISVs).Theseplatformsandmarketplacesincreasinglyoutsourceprocessingtomerchant

acquirerssuchasFiservandGlobalPaymentsatwholesalepriceswhilecontrollingthecustomerexperienceandearninghighermarginsonvalue-addedservices.

ISVscreateapplicationsandplatformsthatintegratepayment-processingfunctionalityintoexistingsolutions,suchasPOSsystemsorcustomerrelationshipmanagementtools,typicallyforspecific

verticalssuchashealthcareandretail.SMEmerchantsoftenlacktheresourcesandexpertisetomanagesophisticatedtechnologystacks,sotheyareattractedtotheseone-stopsolutionswithintegrated

paymentprocessingandsoftwarefunctionalities.McKinseysurveydatashowsthatvertical-specific

softwaresolutionscapturedmorethan50percentofSMEspendingin2023intheUnitedStates.Underpressurefromdisrupters,incumbentscaleacquirerswithlegacyprocessingsystemsarelosingmargin

Exhibit3

Asonlinespendinghasgrown,ithaslargelyconsolidatedintoplatformsandmarketplaces.

TotalC2B¹point-of-salespendbysegment,US,%Shareofplatform/marketplacesbysegment,

23

77

25

75

32

68

33

67

35

65

US,2023,%

36

64

50–60%ofonline=Amazon3P,Shopify,etc

50–60%ofin-person=

Clover, Square,Toast,etc

40–50%

ofonline=

Airbnb,Amazon,eBay,Netlix,etc

0–5%of

in-person=

largely

unafected

2021

7.9

2022

8.6

2023

9.0

2018

6.7

2019

6.9

2020

6.6

SMB²

3.7

Enterprise

TotalC2B¹

point-of-salespend,US,

5.3

$trillion

1Consumer-to-business.

2Smallandmedium-sizebusinesses.

Source:McKinseyUSPaymentsMap

McKinsey&Company

Globalpaymentsin2024:Simplerinterfaces,complexreality8

fromcardtransactionsevenastheyretainprocessingvolumes.Somearerespondingbyofferingtheir

ownISVsolutions:FiservhasestablishedClover,acloud-basedPOSplatform,whileGlobalPaymentshasacquiredaspectrumofvertical-specificISVs.6

BanksthatprovidemerchantservicestoSMEsareadoptingavarietyofstrategies.JPMorganChaseandBankofAmericamainlycatertoSMEswithdirectsalesthroughtheirbranchnetworks,buttoenhance

theircompetitiveedge,bothoffertheNCRSilverPOSsoftwareplatform.Incontrast,Elavon,asubsidiaryofU.S.Bank,offersitsownISVsolution,Talech,whichitdistributesthroughitsbranchesandindependentsalesorganizations.7Meanwhile,othermajorbankspartnerwithestablishedproviderslikeFiservfortheirmerchant-acquiringservices.

Ontheenterpriseside,digital-nativemerchantslikeAirbnbandNetflixaregrowingmorerapidlythantheirofflinecounterparts,capturingalargershareoftotalcommerceanddrivingdownacquiringfees.8Theyare

turningtomodernglobalacquirerssuchasAdyenandStripe,attractedbytheircomprehensivepaymentmethodcoverage,omnichannelsolutions,andflexibleoperatingmodels.Thisischangingtheroleof

traditionalacquirers,whichareincreasinglyrelegatedtoprovidingcommoditizedpaymentprocessing.

Currently,mostISVsarefocusedongrowthratherthanprofitability.However,asthemarketshiftsitsfocustoprofitability,weanticipatethatISVswillextenddownthevaluechainintopaymentfacilitation,capturingalargershareofrevenuesandacorrespondingshareofcostandrisk.

5.Transactionbankingwillmimicconsumerexperiences

Inrecentyears,transactionbankinghasbecomeadifferentiatorandarichsourceoffeeincomefor

leadinginstitutions.LargeglobalbankslikeCiti,DBS,HSBC,andJPMorganChasehaveemphasizedtheirtransactionbankingunitsonrecentinvestordays,lookingtoattractthehighervaluationmultiplesattachedtopaymentsbusinessesandrecurringfeeincome.9Otherplayers,suchasSantanderwithitsPagoNxt

offering,havetakenstepstowardrunningpaymentsasstand-alonebusinesses.10Stillothers,suchas

GoldmanSachsandRoyalBankofCanada(RBC),havelaunchednewtransactionbankingbusinessunitsintheUnitedStatestocapturedepositsandfeeincome.11

Weexpectcommercialcustomerstodemandandreceiveintuitiveinterfaceslikethosetheyencounterin

theirpersonallives.Meanwhile,technologicaladvanceswillhelpsolvereconciliationproblemsandstreamlinesupplychainfinancewithfasteranddeeperintegrationofbankandcorporatesystems.Bankswillnothave

italltheirownway,withmultipledisrupterslikeBankingCircleandModernTreasuryandvertical-specificplayerslikeFlywirelookingtocaptureasliceoftheB2Bpaymentspie.

Lookingahead,competitionwillcontinuetoincreaseasnewplayersenterthemarketandtraditionalplayersinvesttodefendtheirshares.Forcorporates,thesedevelopmentswillheraldasubstantialimprovementin

functionalityanduserexperienceinthecorporatebackoffice.

6JohnStewart,“HowglobalpaymentslookstoISVs,payfacs,andM&Atospurgrowth,”DigitalTransactions,August7,2024;“Globalpaymentsto

acquireISVACTIVENetwork,”PaymentFacilitator(Infinicept),August3,2017.

7“Paymentintegrationsforeverybusinessneed,”Chase,accessedOctober2024.

8JuozasKaziukėnas,“E-commercealonekeepsretailsalesgrowing,”MarketplacePulse,August21,2024;LenPrazych,“E-commercesalesup1.3percentin2ndquarter,”BoardConvertingNews,September4,2024.

9JeremyBarnum,Firmoverview,JPMorganChaseInvestorDay2023,NewYorkCity,NY,May22,2023.10“Merchantservicesforsmallbusinesses,”U.S.Bank,accessedOctober2024.

11“GoldmanSachslaunchestransactionbankingintheUK,”GoldmanSachspressrelease,June21,2021;SteveSlaterandGarethGore,“Goldmantorampuptransactionbankingto36countries,”InternationalFinancialReview,February18,2022;“RBCCapitalMarketslaunchesRBC

Clear™,acashmanagementsolutionthatwillfocusonFortune1000corporationsintheUnitedStates,”RBCpressrelease,April16,2024.

9Globalpaymentsin2024:Simplerinterfaces,complexreality

6.CBDCswillsetthebaselinefordigitalcurrencies

Morethan90percentofcentralbanksarepursuingorconsideringcentralbankdigitalcurrency(CBDC)

projects,andmorethan30haverolledoutpilots,includingAustralia,Brazil,andFrance.12However,the

initialexcitementaboutthedisruptivepotentialofCBDCshaswaned,giventhelimiteduptakesofar.Bankshavenotbeendisintermediated,andinmanycountries,consumershavetreatedtheirCBDCportfolioasjustanotherwallet.

Despitethis,weforeseeCBDCsplayingthreerolesinpayments:First,theywillsettheminimumbaseleveloffunctionality,cost,andservicesthatuserscanexpectfromadigitalcurrency.Theyalsowillprovide

analternativetohelpkeepthepriceofcommercialofferingsincheck.Andfinally,theywillserveasan

alternativetolargebutoftenopaqueprivate-sectorstablecoins.Theimportanceoftheserolesmayensurealong-term,ifunglamorous,futureforCBDCs.

Morethan

90%

ofcentralbanksarepursuingorconsideringcentralbankdigitalcurrencyprojects

Capturingthenext$1trillioningrowth

Asthepaymentsecosystemcontinuestoexpand,itisevolvingrapidly.Customerpreferencesandtheregulatoryenvironmentarepushingasignificantshareofpaymentsbyconsumers,businesses,and

corporationstobeexecutedinrealtime.

Weseethreemainareaswhereoperatorsanddisrupterswillwanttoinvest:instantpaymentsofferings

inmargin-richsegmentswheretheyhavetheabilitytosucceed;improvementstoanti–moneylaundering

(AML)andfraudpreventionsystems,includingnewtechnologieslikeAI;andinfrastructureandsystemsthatcanoperatereliablyathighvolumes.

Decidingwheretoplayininstantpayments

Instantpaymentsenableinnovationineveryretailandcorporatesegment.Ofthese,cross-border

payments;treasurymanagement,comprisingaccountsreceivable(AR)andaccountspayable(AP);andpayouts,refunds,andpayrollareparticularlyinteresting.

Cross-borderpayments.Cross-borderpaymentshavehistoricallybeenslower,moreexpensive,less

transparent,andcharacterizedbyworseuserexperiencesthandomesticpayments.Withthegrowthinthedomesticadoptionofinstantpayments,customerdemandandregulatorypressuretoclosethegaphave

grown.

12

AnnekeKosseandIlariaMattei,“Makingheadway—resultsofthe2022BISsurveyoncentralbankdigitalcurrenciesandcrypto,”BISPapers,July10,2023;CentralBankDigitalCurrencyTracker,AtlanticCouncil.

Globalpaymentsin2024:Simplerinterfaces,complexreality10

Somebilateralinitiativestoconnectdomesticinstant-paymentschemes,includingbetweenSingapore

andThailandandbetweenSingaporeandIndia,arealreadylive.Others,liketheArabRegionalPaymentsClearingandSettlementOrganization,orBuna-NPCI,areatanearlystage.13However,tofullyaddress

thisopportunityrequiresmultilateralconnections.ProjectNexus,aninitiativebackedbytheBankfor

InternationalSettlements,isamodelofhowmultilateralcross-borderinstantpaymentscanwork,havingdemonstratedasuccessfulconnectionbetweenMalaysia’sReal-TimeRetailPaymentsPlatform(RPP)

andSingapore’sFastandSecureTransfers(FAST)paymentsystem.14Thecentralbanksandinstant-

paymentsoperatorsinIndia,Malaysia,thePhilippines,Singapore,andThailandarenowworkingtowardliveimplementationofNexusinthosecountries.

Severalbodi