chapter 10 decision making - wayne k hoy：10章决策-韦恩k霍伊

W.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011Chapter10

DecisionMakingOverviewW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011OptimizingModelSatisficingModelMuddlingModelMixedScanningModelContingencyModelITheClassicalModel:

OptimizingW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011Optimizing:MaketheBestDecisionDefinetheProblemsEstablishGoalsandObjectivesGenerateallPossibleAlternativesConsidertheConsequencesofallAlternativesEvaluateallAlternativesSelecttheBestAlternativeImplementandEvaluatetheDecisionQuestions:CanyoumaketheBestDecision?Why?

W.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011

AssumptionOne:Administrativedecisionmakingisadynamicprocessthatsolvessomeorganizationalproblemsandcreatesothers.AlwaysmoreproblemsNofinalsolutionsAssumptionTwo:Completerationalityindecisionmakingisimpossible;Thus,administratorsseektosatisficeratherthanoptimize.Why?Optimize--theBestDecisionSatisfice--“GoodEnough”BoundedRationality--Bestofanarrowsetofalternatives.SomeDecisionMakingAssumptionsW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011

DecisionMakingAssumptionsAssumptionThree: Valuesareanintegralpartofdecisionmaking.AssumptionFour:Decisionmakingisageneralpatternofactionfoundin therationaladministrationofalltasksandfunctions.DefinetheproblemAnalyzethedifficultiesinthesituationEstablishcriteriaforasatisfactorydecisionDevelopastrategyofactionInitiateaplanofactionEvaluatetheoutcomesTasksofAdministration:C&I,supervision,finance&business,PR,etc.FunctionsofAdministration:policy,resources,executiveactionW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011IITheAdministrativeModel:SatisficingSatisficing:MakeaSatisfactoryDecisionSituationRecognizeandDefinetheProblemAnalyzetheDifficultiesGettheRelevantFactsClassifytheProblemSpecifyProblemEstablishCriteriaforaSatisfactorySolutionDevelopaPlanofActionConsiderAlternativesWeighConsequencesofEachAlternativeDeliberateSelectCourseofActionInitiateActionPlanProgramCommunicateMonitorAppraiseW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011IIStepsinAdministrativeModel:SatisficingStep1:RecognizeandDefinetheProblemorIssueBesensitivetodifficulties.Definetheproblem:conceptualizeit.Don’tdefineproblemeithertoonarrowlyorbroadly.Whatistheshort-termproblem?Whatisthelong-termproblem?W.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011SatisficingStep2:AnalyzetheDifficultiesinExistingSituationClassifytheproblem.NewproblemorOld?GenericorUnique?RoutineorNovel?Twocommonmistakes:Treatroutineproblemasnewproblem.Treatnewproblemasanoldone.GettheRelevantFactsWhatisinvolved?Why?Where?AndWhen?Towhatextent?W.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011SatisficingStep3:EstablishCriteriaforaSatisfactoryOutcomeWhataretheminimumobjectivestobeachieved.Compareyour“musts”withyour“wants.”Comparetheidealwithsatisfactory.Whatisgoodenough?Theminimumsthatyoumustgettohaveasatisfactorydecision--theboundaryconditions.W.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011SatisficingStep4:DevelopanActionPlanorStrategyWarnings:Donotdecidequestionsthatarenotpertinent.Donotdecideprematurely.Donotmakedecisionsthatcannotbeeffective.Donotmakedecisionsthatothersshouldmake.Developingastrategyistheheartofthedecision-makingprocess.SpecifyyourAlternatives.PredicttheConsequences.DeliberateandDevelopaPlanLet’sexamineeachaspectofdevelopingastrategyofaction.W.K.Hoy©2003,2008,20111.SpecifyAlternativesDevelopagoodlistofalternatives--youroptions.Generallyspeakingthemoreoptionsthebetter,buttryforat leastadozen;timeisaconstraint.Searchfornovelandcreativeoptions.Pauseandreflect;avoidsimpledichotomies.Alwaysconsider“doingnothing”asyourfirstoption.Inbrief--Makefewdichotomousdistinctions.Usedivergentthinkingstrategies.Makeandtaketimetodevelopagoodsetofalternatives.DevelopPlanofActionW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,20112.PredictConsequencesForeachalternative,predicttheprobableconsequences.Oftenthedevelopmentofalternativesandconsequences occurtogether.Trytoanticipatetheunexpected.Groupsareoftenimportantatthisstagebecausethehelp gaugethepossibleoutcomes.

W.K.Hoy©2003,2008,20113.DeliberateandSelectCourseofActionReflectivelyanalyzeyouroptionsandtheirconsequences.Developaplanwithcontingencies.Startwithfirstoptionandthengotosecond,third,etc. dependingontheactualconsequences.Thinkasmanystepsaheadasyoucan.Bereadytoshiftplanifunexpectedhappens.Ifyoucannotfindanacceptablealternative,bepreparedto loweryouraspirationlevel--lowercriteriaofsatisfaction.Usesomesimpleheuristicsifpossible.Bepreparedtorethinkyourentirestrategyifnecessary.DevelopandexitstrategyW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011FinalStepinSatisficingStep5:InitiateandevaluateyourplanofactionProgram.Communicate.Monitor.Assesssuccessusingcriteriaofsatisfaction.Theendisusuallyanewbeginning.W.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011SummaryofAdministrativeModel:SatisficingStep1:RecognizeandDefinetheProblemorIssueStep2:AnalyzetheDifficultiesinExistingSituationStep3:EstablishCriteriaforaSatisfactoryOutcomeStep4:DevelopanActionPlanorStrategyStep5:InitiateandevaluateyourplanofactionTRAPSINDECISIONMAKINGTOAVOIDAnchoringTrap: GivingdisproportionalweighttoinitialinformationComfortTrap: AbiastowardalternativesthatsupportthestatusquoRecognitionTrap: TendencytoplaceahighervalueonthatwhichisfamiliarRepresentativeTrap: TendencytoseeothersasrepresentativeofthetypicalstereotypeSunk-CostTrap: Tendencytomakedecisionsthatjustifypreviousdecisionsthatarenot working.FramingTrap: Framingoftheproblemimpactstheeventualsolution(Becareful.)PrudenceTrap: Tendencytobeovercautiouswhenfacedwithhigh-stakesdecisionsMemoryTrap: Tendencytobasepredictionsonmemoryofpastevents,whichareoften over-influencedbybothrecentanddramaticeventsW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011IIITheIncrementalModel:MuddlingW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011Muddling:SuccessiveLimitedComparisonCharlesLindblomdescribesthewaymostdecisionsaremadeastheprocessofmuddlingthrough.Asmallandlimitedsetofoptionsareconsidered.Optionsareonlymarginallydifferentfromexistingsituation.Optionsareconsideredbycomparingactualconsequences.Trytheoptionandthenobserveconsequences.Ifconsequencesarefine,thenalittlemore.Ifconsequencesarenegative,thenbackoffandtrysomethingdifferent.Focusisonoutcomesandtrialanderror.MuddlingThroughW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011SummaryofDistinctiveFeaturesMeans-endsanalysisisinappropriatebecauseobjectivesandgeneratingalternativesoccursimultaneously.Goodsolutionsarewhatdecisionmakersagreetoregardlessofobjectives.Alternativesandoutcomesaredrasticallyreducedbyconsideringonlyoptionssimilartocurrentstate.Analysisisrestrictedtodifferencesbetweenexistingstateandproposedalternatives.Muddlingeschewstheoryinfavorofsuccessivecomparisonofconcrete,practicalalternatives.IV

TheMixedScanningModel:

AnAdaptiveStrategyW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011MixedScanningisguidedbytwoquestions:Whatistheorganization’smission?Whatdecisionsmovetheorganizationtowardsitsmissionandpolicy?Mixedscanningisacombinationoftheadministrativemodelandmixedscanningmodel;itisdirected,incrementalchange.Mixedscanninghasitsrootsinmedicine.Abroadgoal,mission,orpolicyguidesthedecisionprocess.Decisionsaremadeincrementally,butwiththebroadgoalinmind.Consequencesareassessedintermsofthegoal.Decisionsaremadewithpartialinformation.Thenfurthersmalldecisionsaremadeifprogressisgood.PrinciplesofMixedScanningW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011Usefocusedtrialanderror.Betentative--proceedwithcaution.Ifuncertain,procrastinate.Staggeryourdecisionsinstages.Ifuncertain,factionalizeyourdecisions.Hedgeyourbets.Bepreparedtoreverseyourdecisions.MixedScanningW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011SummaryofDistinctiveFeaturesBroadorganizationpolicygivesdirectionandprovidesguidance.Gooddecisionshavesatisfactoryoutcomesandareconsistent withpolicyandmission.Thesearchforoptionsislimitedtothoseclosetotheproblem.Informationisincompletebutactionessential.Theory,experience,andsuccessivecomparisonsareusedtogether.W.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011ComparisonoftheClassical,Administrative,Incremental,andMixed-ScanningModelsofDecisionMakingClassicalObjectivesaresetpriortogeneratingalternativesDecisionmakingisameans-endsanalysis:first,endsaredetermined,andthenALLthemeanstoobtainthemaresought.ThetestofagooddecisionisthatitisshowntobetheBESTmeanstoachievetheend.(Optimizing)Engageincomprehensiveanalysis;allalternativesandallconsequencesareconsidered.Heavyrelianceontheory.AdministrativeObjectivesareusuallysetpriortogeneratingalternatives.Decisionmakingistypicallymeans-endsanalysis;however,occasionallyendschangeasaresultofanalysis.ThetestofagooddecisionisthatitcanbeshowntoresultinaSATISFACTORYmeanstoachievetheend;itfallswithintheestablishedboundaryconditions.(Satisficing)Engagein“problemisticsearch”untilasetofreasonablealternativesisidentified.Relianceonboththeoryandexperience.IncrementalSettingobjectivesandgeneratingalternativesareintertwined.

Becausemeansandendsarenotseparable,means-endsanalysisisinappropriate.Thetestofagooddecisionisthatthedecisionmakerscanagreeanalternativeisthe“right”directionwhentheexistingcourseprovestobewrong.(Successivecomparing)Drasticallylimitthesearchandanalysis;focusonalternativessimilartotheexistingstate.Manyalternativesandimportantoutcomesareignored.Successivecomparisonsreduceoreliminatetheneedfortheory.MixedScanningBroadpolicyguidelinesaresetpriortogeneratingalternatives.Decisionmakingisfocusedonbroadendsandtentativemeans.Thetestofagooddecisionisthatitcanbeshowntoresultinasatisfactorydecisionthatisconsistentwiththeorganization’spolicy.(Adaptivesatisficing)Limitthesearchandanalysistoalternativesclosetotheproblem,butevaluatealternativesintermsofbroadpolicy.Morecomprehensivethanincrementalism.Theory,experience,andsuccessiveComparisonsusedtogether.VAContingencyModelof

DecisionMaking

W.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011DecisionOpportunityNoNoNoNoNoNoNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesSufficientInformation?Important?SufficientTime?Important?Important?Important?SatisficingTruncatedSatisficingAdaptiveSatisficingTruncatedAdaptiveSatisficingAdaptiveSatisficingMuddlingtoAdaptiveSatisficingMuddlingSufficientTime?TruncatedAdaptiveSatisficingEnd

DecisionMakinginSchoolsSwiftandSmartDMRulesW.K.Hoy©2003,2008,2011SatisficingRule: Optimizingisimpossibleinschooladministration:learntosatisfice.FramingRule: Frameproblemsinpositivetermsforpositiveresults.

DefaultRule: Considerasafirstoption“doingnothing.”Simplicityrule: Simplicitytrumpscomplexity;startsimple.UncertaintyRule: Uncertainenvironmentsoftenrequireignoringinformation; trustyourintuitioninthisregard.

Take-the-BestRule: Choosethefirstsatisfactoryoption.TransparencyRule: Maketransparencyi