英文移动性 5.0 的未来

REPORT

2024

THEFUTUREOFMOBILITY5.0

Changinggearin

thejourneytoward

sustainablemobility

2

CONTENT

FOREWORD4

EXECUTIVESUMMARY6

1.EXAMINATIONOFCURRENT

STATEOFMOBILITYSYSTEMS10

2.DEEPDIVESONMOBILITYSOLUTIONS18

2.1ClimateChangeMitigationPoliciesinTransport18

2.2TheCity0fProximityConcept24

2.3DimensioningPublicTransport28

2.4NewMobilityServices:

Micromobility,Shared&On-demand31

2.5MobilityasaService35

2.6AutonomousMobility42

2.7MobilityDemandManagement47

2.8TheMobilityFundingEquation53

3.CONCLUSIONS&RECOMMENDATIONS60

3

AUTHORS

ARTHURD.LITTLE

FRANCOIS-JOSEPHVANAUDENHOVE

ManagingPartner,HeadofTravel&TransportationPractice,Brussels

ARSÈNERUHLMANN

Manager,Travel&TransportationPractice,Paris

DR.PHILIPPSEIDEL

Principal,Automotive,Travel&Transportation,SustainabilityPractices,Munich

ALEXANDERHENSLER

Manager,Travel&TransportationPractice,Frankfurt

DR.SABINEREIM

Principal,Travel&TransportationPractice,Boston

RICKEAGAR

PartnerEmeritus,InnovationPractice,London

ACHRAFJOUMAA

Partner,Travel&TransportationPractice,Riyadh

POLIS

KARENVANCLUYSEN

SecretaryGeneral

IVOCRÉ

Director,PolicyandProjects

PEDROGOMES

ClusterLead,CleanVehicles&AirQuality

MELINAZAROUKA

ClusterLead,Access

ANDRÉIALOPEZAZEVEDO

ClusterLead,ActiveTravel&Health

MICKAËLTAUVEL

Partner,HeadofMobilitySegment,Paris

VADIMPANARIN

Principal,CISmarkets,Brussels&CIScountries

MICHAELZINTEL

ManagingPartner,Travel&TransportationPractice,Frankfurt

JEROMECARLIER

Principal,Travel&TransportationPractice,Brussels

HANSARBY

SeniorAdvisor,ArthurD.Little;Senior

Researcher,RISEandCityofGothenburg

MARCUSBEARD

Partner,Travel&TransportationandPerformancePractices,Cambridge

DANIELCHOW

Principal,Travel&TransportationPractice,Singapore

PEDROHOMEMDEGOUVEA

SeniorPolicyAdvisor,Safety&Security;ClusterLead,Governance&Integration

LAURABABÍO

ClusterLead,TrafficEfficiency

MARKOSTANČEC

ProjectCoordinator

ALONSODAVILAGRAF

ProjectManager

4

REPORT:THEFUTUREOFMOBILITY5.0

FOREWORD

Weliveinuncertainandunpredictabletimes,yetlooking

intothefutureremainsakeycomponentofleadership.

Whattrendsandchallengesareaffectingtheevolution

ofourmobilitysystems?Whatnewsolutionsshouldwebeawareof,andwhichonesareactuallyabletodeliverontheirpromises?Howcanpublicandprivatesectorinitiatives

cometogetherandmutuallyreinforceeachother?Whatwillchangethegameintheyearstocome?

ThisReportisthefifthinaseriesofcomprehensivereportsonthefutureofmobilitysinceArthurD.Little(ADL)

originallysetupitsFutureofMobilityLabin2010.Itaimstoshedlightonwhatkeystakeholders—transportauthoritiesatlocal,regional,andnationallevels;publicandprivate

mobilityservicesproviders;transportsectorsuppliers;

andinvestors—shoulddotoshiftgearandacceleratethetransitiontowardmoresustainable,resilient,safe,inclusive,efficient,andhuman-centricmobilitysystems(hereafter

referredtoas“virtuousmobilitysystems”).

Theprimaryaudienceforthisstudyincludesmobility

leadersanddecisionmakersfromaroundtheglobe,

includingpoliticaldecisionmakers,C-levelexecutives,

andmanagement,aswellaspolicyadvisors.Giventhe

breadthofourtargetaudience,itisanticipatedthatsomecontentmaybefamiliartocertainreaderswhileserving

asnewinformationtoothers.Thisdiversityofknowledgeisintentional,asthestudyaimstoprovideaholistic

viewofthecriticalcomponentsnecessaryforavirtuous

mobilityfuture.Italsoseekstouncovercommonblind

spots,encouragingabroaderperspectivethattranscendsfamiliarviewpoints.

ARTHURD.LITTLE

5

Forthisedition,wejoinedforceswithPOLIS,Europe’s

leadingnetworkoflocalandregionalauthoritiesadvancingsustainablemobilitythroughtransportinnovation.Overthepastmonths,wetalkedtomanyglobalprivateandpublic

sectorstakeholders,engagedwithPOLISmembersinfocusgroups,launchedaworldwidesurveytocollectinsights

fromleadersinthemobilityworld,drewconclusions,andformulatedrecommendations.

Thestudyadoptsa360-degreeperspectiveonmobility

matters,fromlocaltosupra-regionallevels.Aftertaking

stockofcurrentmobilityperformanceandtrends,wedivemoredeeplyintoeightsolutionscurrentlyattheforefront,aimingtodemystifyandcriticallyevaluatethem.Wealso

reflectontheirlikelyoverallimpactiftheywerecollectivelyimplementedandidentify10gamechangersthatwebelievearecriticalformobilitysystemsplayerstoshiftgearand

accelerateprogress.

WehopeyouenjoyreadingtheReportandthatitwillbeinformativeforyourfurthermobilityendeavors.

Sincerely,

Francois-JosephVanAudenhove

KarenVancluysen

ManagingPartner,

SecretaryGeneral

HeadofTravel&Transportation

POLIS

ArthurD.Little

6

REPORT:THEFUTUREOFMOBILITY5.0

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Progresstowardthegoalofmoresustainable,resilient,safe,inclusive,efficient,andhuman-centricmobilitysystemsinourcitieshasbeenslowerthanwasexpectedadecadeago.Whiletherehasbeensomeprogressinthegrowth

ofpublictransport(PT)andactivemobility

(walkingandcycling)—andnewmobility

devicesandsharedmobilityserviceshavebeenintroduced—overthelast15yearsthegrowthofthesemodeshasbeenlessthan10%globally,andindividualcarsstillrepresent70%of

passenger-km(pax-km)inurbanareasand90%inruralareas.Onaworldwidebasis,transportstillaccountsforaround25%-40%ofnationalcarbondioxide(CO2)emissions,theonlysectorwithasteadyincreasesince1990.

Onamoreoptimisticnote,ADL’slatest“Future

ofAutomotiveMobility”globalend-user

study1foundthatbetween42%and72%of

inhabitantsinlargecitiesofmorethan250,000personswould“perhaps”bewillingtogiveup

atleastoneoftheircarsifsufficientmobilityalternativesweremadeavailabletothem.Of

course,thereisoftenasignificantgapbetweendeclaredintentionandactuallytakingaction.

Overthelastdecades,theconvergenceofglobaltrendshasledtothedevelopmentofnewmobilityservicesandbusinessmodelswiththepromise

ofimprovingourmobilitysystems.Theseincludepersonalmobilitydevices(e.g.,e-scootersandothermicromobilitydevices),sharedmobility

models,andautonomousmobility,aswellas

activemobilityandtheneedformoreintegratedmobilityservicesandinformation.Toexploretheimpactofthesetrends,thechallengeshinderingtheirprogress,andrecommendationsfor

overcomingthem,thestudyundertookeightdeepdivesintopromisingsolutions,includingconcepts,policies,andservices(seeFigureA).

Beginningwithmobilityvisionsandpolicies,

therearestilldifficultiesinadoptinglong-

term,adequatelyintegratedpoliciestosecurerealprogressonclimatechangemitigationandthemovetowardnetzeroisstillchallenging.

Mitigatingclimatechange’simpactrequires

amorejoined-uppolicyapproach,whereby

electrificationiscomplementedbyamodalshiftawayfromtheprivatecartomoresustainable

modesaswellasbytransportdemandreduction.

FigureA.Eightsolutionsreviewedaspartofstudy

“Cityof

proximity”

concept

Climatechange

mitigation

policies

Mobilityvision&policies&system-levelgovernance

Dimensioningofmasstransit

Smart

mobility(technologyasenabler)

Mobilitydemand

management

measures

Mobility

supply

Mobilitydemandmanagement

Newmobility(micro,shared&on-demand)

Mobilityfundingequation

Mobilityfunding

Autonomousmobility

MaaS

Source:ArthurD.Little

1Parkin,Richard,andPhillipSeidel.“FutureofAutomotiveMobility,2024.”ArthurD.Little,forthcoming2024(basedonsurveyconductedinQ42023).

ARTHURD.LITTLE

7

Reshapingmobilitybehaviorsalsorequires

reshapingpublicspacesawayfromacenturyof

car-centrictransportpoliciesandurbanplanning.Overall,theconceptofthe“cityofproximity”

hasgreatpotentialtocontributetosustainablemobility.Goingforward,cityauthoritiesshouldpursueeffortstodeploytheconceptbutata

largerscale,withpossibleadaptationstocatertohowdigitalizationhaschangedcitizens’needsforproximity,andwithastrongeremphasison

measuringsystemicimpacts.

Lookingatmobilitysupply,authoritiesshould

becomesmarterwithtransportmodeallocation

throughthedevelopmentofmultimodaltransport

masterplansthatprioritizetransportservices

accordingtotheirperformanceandaffordability,includingsupportingthedevelopmentofmass

transitinitskeyroleasthe“backbone”of

sustainablemobilityaswellasencouraging

complementaritywithothersustainablemodeswherethesecanbemoreefficient,convenient,andequitable.Authoritiesneedtocultivate

newmobilityaspartofthemenuandfoster

partnershipswithnewmobilityserviceproviders(MSPs),ratherthanmerelyseektoregulatethem.ThisalsomeansthatnewMSPsneedtotakea

greaterinterestinimprovingtheecosystemtomaximizesuccessandimprovetheireconomicandenvironmentalviability.

Intermsofsmartmobility,mobilityasa

service(MaaS)needstooffermoreadded

valuefunctionalitiesbeyondmerelyserving

asan“umbrella”appforexistingservices.

Inthelongrun,weexpectthebenefitsof

autonomousmobilityarenotrealizedthroughindividualautomatedvehicles,butrather

throughconnectedandmostlysharedvehiclesinsmarttrafficsystems.Inthemeantime,

thefocusshouldbemoreonfeasibleusecasesandapplications,suchasautomatedbusrapid

transit(BRT)systemsandautomatedbusdrivingindepots,ratherthangoingdirectlytothe

moonshotofautonomousvehicles(AVs)inmixedtraffic.

Mobilitydemandmanagement(MDM)is

crucialtoenablingmodalshiftawayfrom

privatecars.Weidentifiedsome“sweetspots”amongmanypossibledemandmanagementmeasures,includingurbanvehicleaccess

regulations,specificinfrastructureinitiativeslikeintermodalmobilityhubs,personaltravelmanagementmeasuressuchassmartparkingsolutionsandMaaSapps,andmarketing

strategiesthatpromotesustainablemobility.

THESOLUTIONS

NECESSARYFORA

TRANSFORMATIVE

SHIFTAREALREADYWITHINOURGRASP

Finally,allmeasuresmentionedaboveneedsignificantadditionalmobilityfinancing.

Closingthefundinggapwillrequiremore

effectiverevenuemanagement(e.g.,throughfarepoliciesandsubscriptionmodels),

improvingtheattractivenessofpublic

transport,anddiversifyingtosecurenewfundingsources.Ontheexpenditureside,transportauthoritieswillneedtobetter

maximizethecost-effectivenessofcapital

investmentsandimproveoperationalefficiency.

Ouranalysisleadsustoconcludethat,with

comprehensiveimplementation,appropriatefunding,androbustgovernanceatthesystemlevel,thehigh-impactsolutionswehave

reviewedcouldpotentiallydoublethe

globalshareofsustainablemobilityfrom

approximately30%to60%ofpax-kmwithin

thenextdecade.However,noneoftheindividualsolutionshasanimpactofmorethanaround

15%,sotherearenoshortcuts.

Thesolutionsnecessaryforatransformative

shifttowardamorevirtuousmobilityfuture

arealreadywithinourgrasp.However,whilethepotentialfortransformationisevident,therealchallengeliesinputtingthemintoaction.Weidentified10gamechangersthatwebelieve

arecriticalformobilitysystemsplayerstoacceleratethetransition(seeTable1).

Makingchangehappenwilldemandpolitical

andorganizationalcapacityaswellascouragetochangedirectionanddeterminationtokeepasteadycourse.Increasedcollaborationamongpublicandprivatestakeholderswithinthe

extendedmobilityecosystemiskey.Transportauthoritiesincitiesandregions,inparticular,playacrucialroleinacceleratingtheshift.

8

REPORT:THEFUTUREOFMOBILITY5.0

Table1.Gamechangersformorevirtuousmobility

10GAMECHANGERS

Mobilityvision&policies

1

Combine“framing”and“enabling”measuresforsystem-levelmobility

management

•

Localandregionalauthoritiesneedtomovebeyondtheirfoundational

framingactivities,suchasputtinginplaceaforward-lookingmobilityvisionandsuitableregulatoryframeworksandpolicies,towardenablingactivities(i.e.,steeringandorchestratingroadmapstofacilitatetheimplementationofsolutionsthatnecessitateamulti-stakeholderapproachtofoster

accelerationtowardachievingsystem-levelsustainablepolicyobjectives)

2

Adoptamorejoined-upsetofpoliciestosecureprogressonclimate

changemitigation

policies“towardnetzero”

•

•

Accelerateimplementationofelectrificationstrategy

Complementitwithothernetzerolevers:modalshiftandtransportdemandreductiontoensurethattheoverallimpactsaremaximized(“modaltransition”)andnotlimitedtoclimatebenefitsalone

3

Reshapepublicspacesawayfromacenturyofcar-centrictransportpolicies

•

Progressivelyimplementthe“cityofproximity”conceptwithlargerscope,differentiatedfunctionsandastrongeremphasisonmeasuringsystemicimpacts

Mobilitysupply

4

Developamultimodal

transportmasterplantobetterallocatetransportmodes,considering

performanceand

affordability;investin

improvedinfrastructure

forpublictransport,activeandshared

mobility

•

•

•

Focusondevelopingpublictransportasthebackboneofsustainable

mobilitywhenevertrafficdensityjustifiesinvestments,includingfurtherdevelopmentofexistingmobilityhubsandcreationofnewones

Developandencourageactivemobility(walking,cycling)andmicromobility

servicesfortripsunder5kminurban,suburbanandruralareas

Encouragesharedandon-demandmotorizedmobility(carormotorbike

sharing,taxisandridehailing)foroccasionallonger-distancetravelandinlower-densityareaswheremasstransitinvestmentisnotthemostenergy-andeconomicallyefficientsolution

5

DeveloppartnershipsbetweenauthoritiesandnewMSPs

•

•

Localandregionalauthoritiesneedtocultivatenewmobilityaspartofthemenuofsustainablemobilityservicesandfostercollaborationratherthanmerelyseektoregulateit

NewMSPsneedtolookpositivelytowardthe“ecosystemplay”togetherwithtransportauthoritiestomaximizesuccessandensuretheireconomicandenvironmentalviability

9

ARTHURD.LITTLE

10GAMECHANGERS

Smartmobility

6

Embraceinnovation

andtechnologytobetteraddressuserneedsand

operational/systemrequirements

•

Localandregionalauthoritiesneedtosteerandorchestrateroadmaps

toenableimplementationofsolutionsthatrequireamulti-stakeholderapproach,ensuringuser-andpolicy-leddeploymentoftechnologyratherthantechnologyforitsownsake

7

Frameandenablea

virtuousmobilitysystem“poweredbyMaaS”

andanticipate

AVdevelopment

•

•

•

Localandregionalauthoritiesneedtoadoptacomprehensiveapproachtoframeandenableavirtuousmobilitysystem“poweredbyMaaS”andanticipatefuturedevelopmentofautonomoustechnology:

-TakingownershipofoverallroadmapforMaaS/AVs,adoptingacomprehensivesystem-levelapproach

-Activelyfinancingandowningcertaincomponents,suchasoverarchingintegrationlayers,system-leveldatamanagementandMSPsregulationenforcement

-Gettingreadyforthefuturenecessityofa“controltower”roleinurbancenters,whichwillbeessentialforreal-timemanagementoftraffic

flowsandtransportationassets

MaaSoperatorsneedtoadapttheirofferingstoprovideclearervaluepropositionsthatdeliveronitsrealpromise

Localandregionalauthorities,publictransportoperatorsandcommercial

MSPsmustshareinformationandservicesandworktogetherforthegreatergoodinanevolvingopenmobilityecosystem

Mobilitydemand

management

8

Bringaboutlarge-scale

mobilitybehaviorchangethroughtheright

combinationofdemandmanagementmeasures

•

•

•

DevelopacomprehensiveMDMstrategy,consideringarangeofleversfocusingonsweetspotmeasureswithhighimpactandrelativelylowcosts

Conducteffectivemarketingcampaignsforvirtuousmobilitysystems(masstransit,activeandnewmobility)withtherightnarrativesandnudgingtactics

Leveragecorporatestofostersustainablemobilityfortheiremployees

Mobilityfunding

9

Optimizeeffectivenessandefficiencyof

spending:valuefor

money,moneyforresult

•

•

•

Prioritizefundingforthemostefficienttransportmodesbasedontheirusageratesandcost-effectiveness

Explore(partial)publicfundingofnewmobilityinareaswheretheyenhancetheoverallmobilitysystemandaddresspublicneedsbutmaynotbecommerciallyviable

CommittocontinuousimprovementinmanagementofPToperations(whetherin-houseortendered)toidentifynewleverstooptimizecostperpassengertransported

10

Beproactiveinexploringdiversificationoffundingsourcesfrombothusers

andtaxpayers

•

•

•

•

Localandregionalauthoritiesshouldcoordinatepoliciesforcarregulationanddevelopmentofpublictransporttooptimizemodalshift,ensuringsocialequityandoptimizedfinancingbyinternalizingexternalcostsandcapturingthevalueofpublicinvestment

Exploreexistingpublicsectorloansatsupranationallevel

Contemplatefinancialpartnershipswithinvestorstofinancelong-termdevelopment

Publictransportoperatorsneedtoexploresmartrevenuemanagement

10

REPORT:THEFUTUREOFMOBILITY5.0

1.EXAMINATIONOFCURRENTSTATEOFMOBILITYSYSTEMS

1.1SETTINGTHESCENE

WhenwefirstsetuptheFutureofMobilityLabin2010,therewasmuchoptimismthatbynowwewouldhavemovedalongwaytowardthegoalofmoresustainable,resilient,safe,efficient,andhuman-centricmobilitysystemsinourcities

andregions.Technologicaldevelopments—particularlyindigitalization,connectivity,andautomation—promisedtheabilitytodelivertailored,diverse,andconvenientmobility

solutionsthatwouldbeattractiveenoughtopromptamajorshiftawayfromprivatecarsasthedefaultmode.

Fourteenyearson,thingshaven’thappenedthewaymanyexpected,thoughtherehasbeensomeprogress.Intoday’scitycenters,wehaveseengrowthinpublictransport,

activemobility(walkingandcycling),and“newmobility”solutions,includingshared

andownedmicromobilitydevices(e-bikes

ande-scooters),carsharing,ridehailing,andelectric-poweredpersonalmobilitydevices(PMDs).

However,thebiggerpictureislessrosy.If

weconsidermasstransit,walking/cycling,

andsharedmobilitymodesascollectively

“sustainable,”overthe15yearsleadingupto

2023,theshareofthesemodes(intermsoftrips)hasonlygrownfrom57%toaround65%globally,whiletheremaining35%oftripsarestillmade

byprivatecar.Andifwelookatpax-kminsteadoftrips,weseethatprivatecarsstillrepresent

about70%inurbanareasand90%inruralareas(seeFigure1),withstrongdiscrepanciesbetweenEuropeandSoutheastAsiathathaveastronger

shareofPTinthemodalsplitononehand,

andNorthAmericaandtheMiddleEastwhereprivatecarsisevenmoredominant.

Figure1.Evolutionofmodalsplit(#trips)and%pax-km

Modalsplit,pax-km

Cities/urban&ruralareas,global

Modalsplitevolution,#oftrips

91%

Cities/urbanareas,global

43%

68%

~65%“sustainablemobilitysystem”

39%

●

~

35%

~

32%

31%

~

29%

30%

28%

28%

26%

4%

≈3%

2%

2%

4%3%2%

Q32022–2023

2007–2012

2016–2019

Cities/urbanareas(2023)Ruralareas(2023)

mIndividualmotorizedtransportWalking,cyclingm

Masstransit(publictransitrail)Newmobility

Note:Newmobilityincludessharedandmicromobility(carsharing,bikesharing,e-scootersharing,etc.);individualmotorizedtransportincludestaxiandride-hailing;privatemobilitydevicesarenotaccountedfor

Source:ArthurD.Little

ARTHURD.LITTLE

11

Ifwelookatcommutingtoworkandschool,

itisclearthattheprivatecarisstillhugely

dominant.Ourlatest“FutureofMobility”surveyofmorethan16,200respondentsglobally2

confirmsthetrend:morethan70%ofcitizensonlyuseprivatecarsfortheirdailycommute,withonly14%neverusingacar(seeFigure2).

Figure2alsoshowsthattheshareof

respondentswhoexclusivelyuseothermodesisverysmall,with6%usinglocalpublictransport,4%usingactivemodes,1%usingtaxis,2%usingcarshares,and10%selecting“other.”Moreover,theproportionofcommuterswhotypicallyusemodesoftransportationotherthanprivatecars(includingusersofmultiplemobilitymodes)

rangesbetween7%(forcarsharing)and17%(forlocalpublictransport).

Ifwelookathowthisvariesbetweenglobalregions(seeFigure3),thereisevenmore

individualcarusageintheUS(78%),but

somewhatlessinChina(61%).Chinaalsohasmoreuseoflocalpublictransport,with27%usingpublictransporttogetherwithatleastoneothermode.Overthelastthreetofive

years,globallythenumberofindividualcar

tripsincreasedby34%accordingtooursurvey,propelledespeciallybyfast-growingeconomies(e.g.,India,Vietnam,Thailand,andMexico).

Inthemeantime,theglobaluseofpublic

transportshowedasmalldecreaseofafew

percentagepoints.Theuseofactivemodeswasstableglobally,althoughitshowedanincreaseofmorethan10%inEurope.

Thelackofprogressintermsofmodalshifttowardsustainabletransportmodeshas

negativeimpactsontransport:

-Onaworldwidebasis,transportstillaccountsforabout25%-40%ofnationalCO2emissions,theonlysectorwithasteadyincreasesince

1990,accordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).

-AccordingtotheInternationalTransport

Forum,transportstillleadstoalargenumberofcasualtiesincities:from0.8fatalitiesper100,000inhabitantsinStockholmto7.4in

Bolognaand15inNewYorkCity,withlittletonochangeoverpastyears.

-Despitelesspost-COVIDtrafficcongestion,

drivenbyincreasedworkingfromhome,levels

havebeengrowingagainsince2023,andthe

averagecommutingtimetoworkhasnot

improved.InEurope,averagetimespentintrafficperyearhasrisenfromaround65hoursin2019to

90hoursin2022,ariseofnearly40%.

Inotherwords,atbestwecantalkofan

evolutiontowardmoresustainablemobilitybutcertainlynotarevolution.

Figure2.Declaredmodeusagefordailycommuting(workandschool)

QuestionfromFutureofMobilitysurvey,20231

Pleaseindicatewhichmode(s)oftransportationyoutypicallyusefortripstoandfromhomeandwork/school?

Only14%of

respondentsnevercommutebycar

14%

17%areusingmorethan1modeof

transportation

86%15%

83%

Acarisonly

commuting

optionfor71%

71%

4%exclusivelyuseactivemodesfordailymobility

9%8%

19%9%

10%

17%

10%6%4%

11%6%

7%

5%

2%

1%

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

PrivatecarLocalpublictransportActivemodesTaxiCarshareOther2

ExclusivemobilityoptionUserofmultiplemobilitymodes

Note:(1)n=16,107;bydesign,thestudyincludes11%ofrespondentswithoutadriver’slicense;(2)includesplane,long-distancebus,rail,carrental,etc.Source:ArthurD.Little

2“FutureofMobilityWorldwideSurvey(Q42023).”ArthurD.Little,forthcoming,2024.

+34%

12

REPORT:THEFUTUREOFMOBILITY5.0

Figure3.Declaredmodeusagefordailycommuting(bygeography)

QuestionfromFutureofMobilitysurvey,2023

Howhasyouraveragenumberoftripspermodeevolvedoverthelast3-5years?

Useofprivatecar

Useofpublictransport

Useofbicycle&walking

+49%

+36%

+3%

61%

+2%

49%

47%

27%

27%

-11%-12%

-15%

-24%-25%

GlobalEuropeUSChinaMiddle

East

Source:ArthurD.Little

21%18%21%23%

8%

-25%

-28%

-24%-22%

-31%

-4%

China

-6%-14%

-7%

-8%

Global

MiddleEast

EuropeUS

IncreasedReduced

11%

24%28%23%25%

14%

-17%

-26%-22%-24%-28%

-2%-8%-1%-3%

GlobalEuropeUSChinaMiddle

East

Figure4.Willingnessofcitizenstoforego(oneof)theirindividualcar(s)

QuestionfromFutureofMobilitysurvey,2023

Giventhenewmobilityandpublictransportservicesavailabletoday,wouldyouconsidergivingupyourowncar?(applicabletoinhabitantsofcitieswith>250Kinhabitants)

Wouldnotgiveupowncar

Wouldconsidergivingupowncar

Europe

US

China

Japan

MiddleEast

2020

29%

17%

22%

32%

2023

22%

20%

21%

37%

2020

31%

17%11%

41%

2023

23%

14%

13%

50%

2020

11%16%

36%

37%

2023

26%

14%

31%

28%

2020

12%

14%

37%

36%

2023

16%

11%

16%

57%

2023

25%25%20%31%

Yes,forallcarsinhouseholdYes,butonlyforsecondarycarPerhapsNo

Note:ValuesweightedbypopulationofmarketsincludedSource:ArthurD.Little

1.2THEEVOLUTIONOFMOBILITYPATTERNS

Whilemanyaspectsofmobilityevolutioncan

bereasonablyseenasdisappointing,thereare

positiveindicators.Regardingindividualcar

usage,asignificantproportionofcitizenswouldconsiderforegoingatleastoneprivatecarif

sufficientmobilityalternativeswereavailable.

Figure4show