高盛-中国白酒业-茅台价格疲弱 China Spirits Tracker Moutai wholesale prices trending weaker on shipments for the festival 09112024

Inthepastweek,originalcaseFeitianMoutai’swholesaleprice/bottledecreasedbyRmb110fromRmb2,660toRmb2,550.UnpackedFeitianMoutai’swholesale+852-3966-4169|leaf.liu@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.price/bottleremainedflattishatRmb2,365.PackedMoutai’swholesalepriceHongdaZhong+852-2978-2300|furtherdeclinedtowardstheMid-AutumnFestivalunderexpeditedshipments.hongda.zhong@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.CommonWuliangye’swholesaleprice/bottleremainedflattishatRmb960per“DailySpiritsPrices”,andincreasedbyRmb5fromRmb915toRmb920per+852-2978-6983|christina.liu@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.“SpiritsPriceReferences”(regionaldifference).Guojiao1573’swholesaleJuliaMuprice/bottleremainedflattishatRmb870.WealsoupdatedMonthlywholesale+852-2978-1219|julia.mu@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.pricesofc.40keySKUsacrossspiritsbrandsinthistracker.ValerieZhou+852-2978-0820|valerie.zhou@Wrappingup2Q24results,wesawsuperpremiumplayersGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.(Moutai/Wuliangye/Laojiao)deliveredsolidresultsanddivergingtrendsamongupper-mid-endplayers.Weobservedslowermarginsonmixshift,aweakeningtrendincustomeradvancesfornonhigh-endplayersandarelativelyweakercashflowtrendforourcoverage.Channelfinancing(notesreceivable)startedtopickuprapidlywithgenerallyweakeningcustomeradvancesfortheupper-mid-endat2Q-end,suggestingamorecautiousviewfromchannels.High-endbrandsarealsomakingmoreeffortstopushSKUspositionedattheRmb500~700pricingrange.Perourchannelchecks,prepaymentandretailsalesmomentumaretrendingweakervs.2023towardstheMid-AutumnFestivalduetoatoughcompofbanquetdemandandreduceddemandstimulatedbyhome-comingactivitiesbecauseofstand-aloneMid-AutumnFestival/NationalDaythisyear.Wesaw_wholesalepriceoforiginalcaseFeitianMoutaiperbottleslidebyRmb110inthepast_weekonshipmentaccelerationtowardstheFestivalasweexpected,whiledistributorsexpectasupportatc.Rmb2,400fororiginalcaseandRmb2,200forUnpacked.GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgo/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.报告来源互联网公开数据；如侵权报告仅限社群个人学习，如需它用2.每日分享：6+份行研精选、3个行业主题3.报告查找：群里直接咨询，免费协助查找4.严禁广告：仅限行业报告交流，禁止一切无关信息GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTrackerKeynewsforrecentweeksnBaijiuoutputforabove-scaleenterprises(Aug16):InJuly,Baijiuoutputofabove-scaleenterprisesreached261kkiloliters,down5.1%yoyperNBS.InJan-Jul,above-scaleenterprisesbaijiuoutputsrecorded2.35mnkiloliters,up1.4%yoy.nChinaCPI(Sep9):China’sheadlineCPIinflationedgedupto+0.6%yoyinAugustfrom+0.5%yoyinJuly,whileheadlinePPIinflationfellnotablyto-1.8%yoyinAugustfrom-0.8%yoyinJuly.nFenWine(Buy,Aug21):FenWinelaunchednewsuperpremiumproducts“Master”series.__11September20242GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTrackerWholesalepricesummaryofhigh-endliquorsFromSept1,2024toSept8,2024:nOriginalcaseFeitianMoutai’swholesaleprice/bottledecreasedbyRmb110fromRmb2,660toRmb2,550.UnpackedFeitianMoutai’swholesaleprice/bottleremainedflattishatRmb2,365.nCommonWuliangye’swholesaleprice/bottleremainedflattishatRmb960per“DailySpiritsPrices”,andincreasedbyRmb5fromRmb915toRmb920per“SpiritsPriceReferences”(regionaldifference).nGuojiao1573’swholesaleprice/bottleremainedflattishatRmb870.FromJan1,2024toSept8,2024:nOriginalcaseFeitianMoutai’swholesaleprice/bottledecreasedbyRmb415,fromRmb2,965toRmb2,550.UnpackedFeitianMoutai’swholesaleprice/bottledecreasedbyRmb345fromRmb2,710toRmb2,365.nCommonWuliangye’swholesaleprice/bottleremainedflattishatRmb960per“DailySpiritsPrices”,andremainedflattishatRmb920per“SpiritsPriceReferences”(regionaldifference).nGuojiao1573’swholesaleprice/bottledecreasedbyRmb5fromRmb875toRmb870.Rmb3800330028002300__Jan-20Jan-20MonthlyWeekly255053%v/vFeitianMoutaiex-factoryprice236553%v/vFeitianMoutaiwholesaleprice(originalcase)53%v/vFeitianMoutaiwholesaleprice-Real(packageopened)Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Jul-21Sep-21Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24JulWeek1JulWeek3AugWeek1AugWeek3SeptWeek11050100095090052%52%52%52%800Jan-20Mar-20Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21v/vCommonWuliangyeex-factorypriceMay-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22NovMay-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24JulWeek1Weekly1019960JulWeek3JulWeek3AugWeek1AugWeek3SeptWeek111September20243GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTracker1000950900850800750700650MonthlyEx-factorypriceofGuojiao1573(Postrebate)Ex-factorypriceofGuojiao1573(Nominal)WholesalepriceofGuojiao1573Weekly980890870600Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20NovJan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24JulWeek1JulWeek3AugWeek1AugWeek3SeptWeek1Moutainon-standardSKUs:Wholesalepricesofnon-standardSKUsalltrendedlowerinearlySeptember.ThechannelprofitabilityremaineddecentforJingpinandZodiacMoutaiasofSept8.Rmb/bottleZodiac(53%,500ml)MonthlyWeeklyRmb/bottleCaiyouZhenpin(53%,MonthlyRmb/bottle500ml)Weekly4299_Rmb/bottle_JingpinMoutai(53%,500ml)MonthlyWeeklyRmb/bottleMoutai15years(53%,MonthlyRmb/bottle500ml)Weekly11September20244GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTrackerMoutai-15yr__11September2024GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTracker__11September20246GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTrackerLangjiuSwellfunShedeJiuguiGujingJan-21965525570400290455335150Feb-21960530580400287455335150840260490320Mar-21960530580410287455335150840260480320Apr-21970528580415305480366150880300500340May-21960530570430310475355150880300550350Jun-21950530570440315475358150850300550350Jul-21945530570425310475350150830300550350Aug-21940530615425305460350140820300550330Sep-21940520700425305455345140820300550330Oct-21930525700420300465345140800280550330Nov-21930525700420305465345140820285550330Dec-21925517670425315455343140820285550330Jan-22925517670440315455345140820280550330Feb-22925517670440320455345140810280550330Mar-22920517670440320455345140810290550330Apr-22950527670440320455345140810290550330May-22950500670440310455345140810310550330Jun-22955500670440315455350140810310550309Jul-22960495670440320455350140810310550309Aug-22960520670440320455350145810310550309Sep-22960520680445320460357145810310550315Oct-22940500680445320460351142810310550315Nov-22940480680455320470348142795310550315Dec-22950470680455320470348135795310550315Jan-23935480680455320455330135780310540320Feb-23935480680455320450333135780310540320Mar-23935480680455320450333135780310540320Apr-23935480680455320450335135750310540320May-23935475680455320450340135750310540320Jun-23905490690455330450340135760310540320Jul-23840470613435323450340135755313505320Aug-23850455535410275450340135765310470320Sep-23850455530430280450340135740300460325Oct-23825455520440280450333135725310460330Nov-23825455510440280450333135720300450320Dec-23825455510440280450333135720310450320Jan-24825455510425275450333135710315455320Feb-24825455510400295450330135730300475320Mar-24825455530410295450330135725300470320Apr-24825455510410295465340145725300480315May-24825450510405300470355145725300470320Jun-24825450525420310500360160750285470320Jul-24825450530425305500360160745285470320Aug-24825425530425305500360160740280465310Sep-24825425530415300500360160720300470310Sept2024yoychangeValue-25-300-1520502025-20010-15Magnitude-3%-7%0%-3%7%11%6%19%-3%0%2%-5%SeptmonthlychangeValue000-10-5000-20205Magnitude0%0%0%-2%-2%0%0%0%-3%7%1%0%__Inthistracker,wetrackthedailyreleasedvolumeofthe4application-basedSKUslaunchedonthei-MoutaiApp,i.e.,Zhenpin(500ml),Zodiac(500ml),Zodiac(375ml*2),andMoutai1935(500ml).11September20247GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTrackerJan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-242Q24Jan-23Apr-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-232Q234Q232023TotalZhenpin(500ml)25,25526,23549,605Zhenpin (500ml)17,77412,44313,38411,16814,66217,19719,08419,01120,01020,56120,35520,68643,60143,02758,10561,602206,335YoY-9.7%26.9%32.8%73.9%72.2%52.6%94.0%YoY-81.8%20.4%48.3%27.8%-1.3%-39.6%-53.6%-49.5%-37.8%-11.5%Zodiac (500ml)303,299292,394305,789298,928320,397287,510298,445368,847111,405901,482906,835778,697Zodiac(500ml)425,525338,388368,357349,362384,469417,617464,752386,954409,192507,436338,1954,859,062YoY-28.7%-13.6%-17.0%-14.4%-16.7%-31.2%-36.3%-20.6%-20.4%-21.2%YoY-20.3%23.5%43.4%-11.7%43.6%Volume(Bottles)Zodiac(375ml)59,79661,91268,12785,10489,28888,632106,356106,44827,364189,835263,024240,168YoY51.0%102.5%191.4%225.6%203.3%234.2%206.4%Volume(Bottles)Zodiac(375ml)39,61230,57428,49229,20427,42429,22231,82435,81232,41325,46043,71841,79298,67885,850395,547YoY-21.9%-39.7%-63.8%-22.1%-22.2%-28.3%(500ml)840,103733,605848,584504,77849,6892,422,292231,785(500ml)497,843510,438596,159569,922644,324692,956791,992832,856880,350802,227865,942737,1141,604,4401,907,2022,505,1982,405,2838,422,123YoY68.7%43.7%42.3%85.0%-21.7%-87.9%-88.8%-88.8%-13.9%YoY215.1%253.7%224.5%261.7%214.3%227.7%Total939,718485,913530,552606,962198,3573,563,2132,883,244Total980,754891,8431,006,392959,6561,070,8791,156,9921,311,7161,352,4311,319,7271,257,4401,437,4511,137,7872,878,9893,187,5273,983,8743,832,678YoY24.3%23.8%23.2%51.9%-12.2%-58.0%-59.6%-55.1%23.8%-9.5%YoY25.3%20.1%49.8%48.4%(bottles)6,0005,0004,0003,0002,000_1,000_Mar-22Apr-22MayMar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24(bottles)Zodiac(500ml)20,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-2411September20248GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTrackerMar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24(bottles)1935(500ml)45,00040,00035,00030,00025,0002,00020,0001,50015,0001,00010,0005005,0000(5,000)(bottles)4,0003,5003,0002,500Zodiac(375ml)0__11September20249GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTracker__11September2024GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTracker__11September2024GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTrackerDuringthepastweek,AnhuiYingjia(0%,NC)andKing’sLuck(-1%,Sell)weretherelativelybetterpricedperformersamongSpiritsYTDLastweekWuliangyeYibinKweichowMoutai King'sLuck KouziDistillery AnhuiYingjia LaobaiganFenWineAnhuiGujingJiangsuYangheShunxinAgricultureJinhui□LiquorXinjiangYiliteLuzhouLaojiaoZJLDAnhuiGoldenSeedSichuanSwellfun JiuguiLiquorShedeSpirits-60.0%-14%-4%-17%-3%-1%-18%-20%-1%-2%0%-21%-22%0%-5%-7%-26%-28%-7%-6%-8%-29%-29%-8%-5%-32%-4%-4%-4%-36%-7%-7%-8%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%-50%-55%-5%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%Exhibit14:ChinaSpiritscomps(selec__11September2024GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTrackerChinaspiritsTicker600519.SS000858.SZ6979.HKCompanyKweichowMoutaiWuliangyeYibinZJLDValuationMethodologyOur12-mTPisbasedon23.4xP/Eappliedto2025EEPSWeapply19.5xP/Eto2025EEPStoderiveour12-monthtargetprice.Weapplya12.7xP/Eto2025EEPStoderiveour12-monthtargetprice.KeyRisksDownside:1)Potentialregulationchangessuchasaconsumptiontaxratehike;2)Environmentalpollution;3)A□slower-than-expectedmacroeconomicrecovery;4)Capacityconstraints;□5)MorevolatilityinUSratehikesgiventhenegative□correlationbetweenMoutai'sP/EandtheUS10-yrbondyield.Downside:1)PotentialConsumptiontaxratehike,2)PotentialthreatsfromMoutai-flavorbrands,3)Intensifyingcompetitioninhigh-endspirits.Downside:1)Regulationsrisksonspiritssectormayhaveadversebusinessimpacts;2)Intensifiedcompetitionmaydeteriorateprofitability;3)Macroeconomicandindustryuncertaintiesmayleadtochanneldestockinganddecreaseinwholesaleprices;4)Environmentalpollutionofkeyproductionregionsandpotentialnaturaldisastersmayimposebusinessrisks;5)Potentialconflictofinterests.600809.SSShanxiXinghuacunFenWineWeapplya21.8xP/Eto2025EEPStoderiveour12-monthtargetprice.Downside:1)Consumptiontaxreform,2)Economicslowdown.000568.SZ002304.SZ000596.SZ000799.SZ600779.SS603369.SSLuzhouLaojiaoJiangsuYangheAnhuiGujingDistilleryCo.JiuguiLiquorCo.SichuanSwellfunCo.JiangsuKing'sLuckBreweryWeapply15.6xP/Eto2025EEPStoderiveour12-monthtargetprice.Toderiveour12-monthtargetprice,weapplyaP/Eof12.4Xto2025EEPSWeapply15.5xP/Eto2025EEPStoderiveour12-monthtargetprice.Weapply19.3xP/Eto2025EEPStoderiveour12-monthtargetprice.Weapply12.4xP/Eto2025EEPStoderiveour12-monthtargetprice.Weapplya12.4XP/Eto2025EEPStoderiveour12-monthtargetprice.Downside:1)PotentialConsumptiontaxratehike,2)PotentialthreatsfromMoutai-flavorbrands,3)Intensifyingcompetitioninhigh-endspirits.Keyupsiderisks:1)Better-thanexpectedcompetitivelandscapeinJiangsuprovince;2)Stronger-than-expectedperformanceoutsideJiangsuprovince;□3)Moresustainablecommercialbanquetdemandrecovery.Keydownsiderisks:1)Apotentialconsumptiontaxratehike;□2)PotentialthreatsfromMoutai-flavorbrands;□3)Higher-than-expectedcompetitioninJiangsuprovince.Downside:1)Higher-thanexpectedcompetitioninAnhuiprovince,2)Furthereconomicslowdown,3)Greaterchannelinventoryamidweakerretailsell-through.Upside:1)Stronger-than-expectedmanagementexecutionfornationalexpansion,2)Better-than-expectedproductupgradeUpside:1)Significantimprovementonchannelinventorylevel;2)Stabilizationofwholesaleprices,especiallyNeican;3)Better-than-expectedcommercialbanquetdemandrecovery.Upside:1)ExpansionofDiancangseries,2)FasterthanexpectedpenetrationofTianhaocheninthemassmarket,3)BetterthanexpectedinventorydigestionUpside:1)Better-thanexpectedcompetitivelandscapeinJiangsuprovince,2)Stronger-than-expectedmanagementexecutionfornationalexpansion,3)Better-than-expectedproductupgrade.__11September2024GoldmanSachsChinaSpiritsTrackerWe,LeafLiu,HongdaZhong,ChristinaLiu,JuliaMuandValerieZhou,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesanditsortheirsecurities.Wealsocertifythatnopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisreport.Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.TheGoldmanSachsFactorProfileprovidesinvestmentcontextforastockbycomparingkeyattributestothemarket(i.e.ourcoverageuniverse)anditssectorpeers.Thefourkeyattributesdepictedare:Growth,FinancialReturns,Multiple(e.g.valuation)andIntegrated(acompositeofGrowth,FinancialReturnsandMultiple).Growth,FinancialReturnsandMultiplearecalculatedbyusingnormalizedranksforspecificmetricsforeachstock.Thenormalizedranksforthemetricsarethenaveragedandconvertedintopercentilesfortherelevantattribute.Theprecisecalculationofeachmetricmayvarydependingonthefiscalyear,industryandregion,butthestandardapproachisasfollows:Growthisbasedonastock’sforward-lookingsalesgrowth,EBITDAgrowthandEPSgrowth(forfinancialstocks,onlyEPSandsalesgrowth),withahigherpercentileindicatingahighergrowthcompany.FinancialReturnsisbasedonastock’sforward-lookingROE,ROCEandCROCI(forfinancialstocks,onlyROE),withahigherpercentileindicatingacompanywithhigherfinancialreturns.Multipleisbasedonastock’sforward