高盛-全球PMI跟踪 Global PMI Monitor Output Prices Increase in DMs 09052024

5September2024|4:08PMEDT

GlobalPMIMonitor:OutputPricesIncreaseinDMs

nGlobaltrends:

oTheglobalcompositePMIroseby0.3ptinAugustto52.8;the

manufacturingcomponentfellby-0.2ptto49.5whiletheservicescomponentroseby+0.5ptto53.8.

oManufacturingoutputpricePMIsrosesharplyinmostDMsinAugust,abreakfromlong-termdisinflationtrends.

nMajoreconomy-leveltrends:

oThemanufacturingPMIfellby-0.7ptintheUS(avg.ISM/S&PGlobal)to47.5andby-0.1ptintheEuroareato45.8,butroseby+0.1ptinChina(avg.Caixin/NBS)to49.7.

oTheservicesPMIroseby+0.4ptintheUS(avg.ISM/S&PGlobal)to53.6andby+1.1ptintheEuroareato52.9,butfellby-0.2ptinChina(avg.

Caixin/NBS)to50.9.

nCountry-leveltrends:

oThecompositePMIroseinFrance(+3.9ptto53.1),Australia(+1.8ptto51.7),andtheUK(+1.0ptto53.8),butfellinBrazil(-3.1ptto52.9),

Germany(-0.7ptto48.4),andSaudiArabia(-0.6ptto58.1).

nActivitycomponents:

_

oTheglobalforward-lookingPMIcomponentswereroughlyunchangedformanufacturing(orders-to-inventoriesratioflatat0.98)butfellforservices(servicesfutureactivity-0.4ptto63.4).

oTheglobalemploymentPMIcomponentsfellby-0.3ptformanufacturingto49.7andby-1.7ptforservicesto50.0.

nInflation-relatedcomponents:

oManufacturingsuppliers’deliverytimeslengthenedataslowerpace(+0.3ptto49.6)inAugust.

JanHatzius

+1(212)902-0394|jan.hatzius@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

JosephBriggs

+1(212)902-2163|

joseph.briggs@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

GiovanniPierdomenico

+44(20)7051-6807|

giovanni.pierdomenico@GoldmanSachsInternational

SarahDong

+1(212)357-9741|sarah.dong@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

oGlobalmanufacturinginputpricePMIsfellby-0.2ptto55.0whileoutputpricePMIsroseby+0.3ptto51.7.

oGlobalservicesinputpricePMIsfellby-0.6ptto57.1andby-0.5ptto52.5foroutputpricePMIs.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.

GoldmanSachsGlobalPMIMonitor

Exhibit1:ManufacturingOutputPricePMIsRoseSharplyinMostDMsinAugust,ABreakFromLong-TermDisinflationTrends

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

_

5September20242

GoldmanSachsGlobalPMIMonitor

OutputPricesIncreaseinDMs

GlobalTrends

Exhibit2:TheGlobalCompositePMIRoseby0.3ptinAugustto52.8;theManufacturingComponentFellby

-0.2ptto49.5WhiletheServicesComponentRoseby+0.5ptto53.8

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

MajorEconomy-LevelTrends

Exhibit3:TheManufacturingPMIFellby-0.7ptintheUS(avg.ISM/S&PGlobal)to47.5andby-0.1ptintheEuroAreato45.8,butRoseby+0.1ptinChina(avg.Caixin/NBS)to49.7

_

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5September20243

GoldmanSachsGlobalPMIMonitor

Exhibit4:TheServicesPMIRoseby+0.4ptintheUS(avg.ISM/S&PGlobal)to53.6andby+1.1ptintheEuro

Areato52.9,butFellby-0.2ptinChina(avg.Caixin/NBS)to50.9

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Region-LevelTrends

Exhibit5:TheCompositePMIRoseinFrance(+3.9ptto53.1),Australia(+1.8ptto51.7),andtheUK(+1.0ptto

53.8),butFellinBrazil(-3.1ptto52.9),Germany(-0.7ptto48.4),andSaudiArabia(-0.6ptto58.1)

60

58

56

LatestPMI(Index)

54

52

_

50

48

46

-2

NorthAmerica

UAE

SaudiArabia

India

UK

USJapanFrance

Australia

RussiaEuroArea

GermanyMainlandChinaCanada

SouthAfrica

-101234

MonthlyChangeinPMI(Indexpoints)

WesternEuropeAsiaPacificLatAmCEEMEA

RoundmarkersareCompositePMIs,squaremarkersareManufacturingPMIs.WeplotcountriesinourGScoveragewithaglobalGrossValueAdded

(GVA)weightofatleast0.5%,andthatareastandarddeviationawayfromthecross-countrymeanineitherthePMIlevelorthePMIchange,aswelltheG7andBRICseconomies.USPMIisanaverageofS&PGlobalandISMCompositePMIs.ChinaPMIisanaverageofCaixinandofficialNBSCompositePMI.

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5September20244

GoldmanSachsGlobalPMIMonitor

Exhibit6:Ona3-MonthBasis,ChangesinCompositePMIHaveBeenMixedAcrossMajorEconomies,butHasRisenby+4.2ptsto53.1inFrance

60

58

56

LatestPMI(Index)

54

52

50

48

46

-4

UAE

SaudiArabia

India

UK

Spain

Brazil

Japan

US

Russia

EuroArea

Indonesia

-3

Mexico

-2

MainlandChina

SouthAfrica

-1

Canada

01

Thailand

2

France

Poland

345

PMI,Change3MonthsAgo(Indexpoints)

NorthAmericaWesternEuropeAsiaPacificLatAmCEEMEA

RoundmarkersareCompositePMIs,squaremarkersareManufacturingPMIs.WeplotcountriesinourGScoveragewithaglobalGrossValueAdded

(GVA)weightofatleast0.5%,andthatareastandarddeviationawayfromthecross-countrymeanineitherthePMIlevelorthePMIchange,aswelltheG7andBRICseconomies.USPMIisanaverageofS&PGlobalandISMCompositePMIs.ChinaPMIisanaverageofCaixinandofficialNBSCompositePMI.

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit7:TheGlobalForward-LookingPMIComponentsWereRoughlyUnchangedforManufacturing(Orders-to-InventoriesRatioFlatat0.98)butFellforServices(ServicesFutureActivity-0.4ptto63.4)

_

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5September20245

GoldmanSachsGlobalPMIMonitor

Exhibit8:TheGlobalEmploymentPMIComponentsFellby-0.3ptforManufacturingto49.7andby-1.7ptforServicesto50.0

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Inflation-RelatedComponents

Exhibit9:ManufacturingSuppliers’DeliveryTimesLengthenedataSlowerPace(+0.3ptto49.6)inAugust

_

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5September20246

GoldmanSachsGlobalPMIMonitor

Exhibit10:ManufacturingSuppliers’DeliveryTimesLengthenedinRussia(-1.9ptto42.7)andCanada(-0.8ptto46.5)butImprovedintheUS(+1.4ptto51.4)andJapan(+0.6ptto50.4)

41

LatestMfg.PMISuppliers'Delivery

Russia

43

Times,Inverted(Index)

longerdeliverytimes

45

UK

Canada

47

Brazil

49

MainlandChina

Japan

India

51

US

EuroArea

53

3210-1-2-3

Mfg.PMISuppliers'DeliveryTimes,MonthlyChange,Inverted(Indexpoints)

NorthAmericaWesternEuropeAsiaPacificLatAmCEEMEA

WeplotcountriesinourGScoveragewithaglobalGVAweightofatleast0.5%,andthatareastandarddeviationawayfromthecross-countrymeanineitherthesuppliers’deliverytimesleveloritschange,aswelltheG7andBRICseconomies.ChinaPMIisanaverageoftheMarkitandtheNBSofficialsuppliers’deliverytimescomponents.

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit11:Ona3-MonthBasis,ManufacturingSuppliers’DeliveryTimesHaveEasedintheUSandJapanbutMadeLessProgressorLengthenedElsewhere

41

LatestMfg.PMISuppliers'Delivery

43

Times,Inverted(Index)

45

47

49

_

51

53

55

UK

Brazil

Japan

US

Canada

MainlandChina

India

Russia

longerdeliverytimes

Poland

EuroArea

3210-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8

Mfg.PMISuppliers'DeliveryTimes,Changefrom3MonthsAgo,Inverted(Indexpoints)

NorthAmericaWesternEuropeAsiaPacificLatAmCEEMEA

WeplotcountriesinourGScoveragewithaglobalGVAweightofatleast0.5%,andthatareastandarddeviationawayfromthecross-countrymeanineitherthesuppliers’deliverytimesleveloritschange,aswelltheG7andBRICseconomies.ChinaPMIisanaverageoftheMarkitandtheNBSofficialsuppliers’deliverytimescomponents.

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5September20247

GoldmanSachsGlobalPMIMonitor

Exhibit12:GlobalManufacturingInputPricePMIsFellby-0.2ptto55.0WhileOutputPricePMIsRoseby+0.3ptto51.7

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit13:GlobalServicesInputPricePMIsFellby-0.6ptto57.1andby-0.5ptto52.5ForOutputPricePMIs

_

Source:S&PGlobal,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

AnalysisofPMIsFromOurEconomicsTeam

nUSA:ISMServicesinLineWithExpectations;S&PGlobalServicesPMIRevisedUp,September5

nUSA:ISMManufacturingSlightlyBelowExpectations;ConstructionSpendingMissesbutPriorMonthsRevisedSharplyHigher,September3

nChina:CaixinservicesPMIfellinAugust,September4

nChina:CaixinmanufacturingPMIroseinAugust,September2

nChina:OfficialmanufacturingPMIfellinAugust,August31

5September20248

GoldmanSachsGlobalPMIMonitor

nMexico:FirmerAugustManufacturingBusinessSentimentandPMIsAverage;SoftNon-ManufacturingPMI,September3

nBrazil:SofterManufacturingandServicesPMIinAug;IntensifyingInputPricePressures,September4

nCEEMEA:WeakerCAIsandPMIs,WithRussiaandTurkeySlowingandtheCEEAccelerating,September5

nEurope:AugustFlashPMIs—PersistentStrengthintheUK,OlympicsBoostintheEuroArea,August22

_

5September20249

GoldmanSachsGlobalPMIMonitor

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,JanHatzius,JosephBriggs,GiovanniPierdomenicoandSarahDong,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

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Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analyst

asofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbe

associatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.

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