从盈利视角看欧美股市新动向 20240828 -华福证券

入：24Q2标普500收入增速5.3%，较Q1（4.3%）继续提升2）EPS：Q2标普500EPS增速11.1%，较24Q1（6.1%）继续提升；分行业事业、信息技术和金融的Q2EPS增速领先，材料、工业和必选消费相对靠动，AI板块的贡献边际回落3）ROE：Q2标普500的ROE（TTM）期：与Q1相比，Q2标普500盈利超预期家数占比由80.4%降体仍高于过去10年均值，Q2美股盈利总体好于市场预期。观经济与资本市场展望》—2024.08.19观经济与资本市场展望》—2024.08.19分行业看，生产设备、公用事业、通讯和非耐用消费品的Q2EPS增领先，其余大部分行业总体承压3）ROE：24Q2StoxxEurope600的水平，但明显落后美股4）市场预期：24Q2StoxxEurope600盈利超预期家数占比由55.5%降至50.3%，略高于过去10年均值（49.3%）。趋向再平衡1）长期看美股前景仍然维持看好态度：宏观层面看，美国经济韧性较强、离衰退仍然较远，在发达经济体中保持领先；微观层面看，美股EPS预期增速在全球市场中位居前列，盈利端相对强势有望延续2）短期上涨动能有限，内部结构或趋向再平衡：估值层面，截至8月下旬，美股远期估值仍然超过去10年均值，后续或面临一定压力。分行业看，大部分行业均值超过近10年中枢水平，医药、信息技术、必选消费等估值分位数相对偏高。一方面，从PEG视角看，通讯服务、公用事业及金融、地产等顺周期板块性价比相对较高，另一方面，在大盘集中度及估值处于历史偏高水位背景下，中小盘股的配置价值有望持续凸显。股2）估值低位+AI占比较低，对稳健型投资者而言配置价值较高：从估值视角看，现阶段欧股估值处于历史偏低水位且远低于美股，且AI占1诚信专业发现价值请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明1诚信专业发现价值 4 4 5 7 8 10 10 10 12 14 14 14 16 19 19 19 21 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 18 18诚信专业发现价值 19 20 20 20诚信专业发现价值开始明显反弹，当前增速总体偏稳健。——标普500:收入增速20%15%10% 产边际复苏，带动美股中房地产板块盈利改善，但二季度明显弱于一季度。材料（-诚信专业发现价值标普500:分行业:收入增速24-0624-0323-1223-0923-0623-0322-1222-0922-0622-03标普500：4.3%4.2%2.2%4.3%信息技术2.9%-2.5%-1.8%-3.5%-9.5%-16.3%-28.9%-4.5%48.3%76.2%通讯服务房地产4.8%20.2%20.2%医疗健康4.0%4.3%可选消费金融4.5%4.1%公用事业-8.4%-7.2%-5.9%-2.2%必选消费2.1%2.5%2.9%2.2%材料-1.5%-1.5%-5.0%-5.0% -12.8% 25.4%美股EPS增速好于收入增速，较24Q180%60%40%20% -20%标普500:EPS增速过去10年中位数诚信专业发现价值标普500分行业:EPS增速标普500:4.2%3.4%公用事业20.0%26.6%26.4%49.3%49.3%信息技术25.8%23.3%3.9%金融7.7%4.7%7.0%可选消费25.6%35.8%42.4%60.2%通讯服务4.3%34.3%45.1%42.2%0.7%0.7%房地产4.3%9.9%7.9%4.5%3.3%23.2%23.2%296.9%258.9%258.9%必选消费2.7%4.9%7.4%4.4%20.8%34.3%21.5%7.5%材料46.3%46.3%动，Q1信息技术和通讯服务的贡献边际回落，通讯服务下降尤为明显。而与之业、材料、必选消费的弱势，与其基本面偏差标普500:EPS增速:分行业贡献24-0624-0323-1223-0923-0623-0322-1222-0922-0622-03标普500:6.1%4.2%-3.2%-0.1%-5.1%3.4%信息技术3.6%4.8%4.8%2.7%0.7%-2.0%-2.5%-0.5%-0.2%2.6%金融3.1%-2.5%2.9%0.8%-2.2%-2.8%-3.9%-3.8%医疗健康2.1%-3.9%-2.4%-3.2%-4.5%-2.9%-1.0%-0.3%2.8%可选消费2.3%3.0%3.2%2.6%-1.5%0.9%-0.9%-2.3%公用事业0.5%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.3%-0.6%-0.2%0.0%-0.3%通讯服务0.4%3.0%3.4%3.1%-0.9%-2.7%-2.3%-1.9%0.1%房地产0.1%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.3%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.3%0.6%0.1%-2.2%-2.6%-4.5%-6.6%3.4%7.2%必选消费0.2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.3%0.1%工业-0.1%0.3%0.6%2.6%2.1%0.4%材料 -0.2% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -1.2% -1.0% -0.9% -0.6%0.6%诚信专业发现价值标普500:ROE(TTM)2000年以来中位数标普500:净利润率(TTM)2000年以来中位数9%8%7%6%诚信专业发现价值板块ROE边际提升，能源、医药略有下降。标普500：可选消费信息技术必选消费工业通讯服务医疗健康材料金融公用事业房地产标普500:分行业:ROE(TTM)24-0624-0323-1223-0923-0623-0322-1222-0922-0622-0332.7%32.1%27.9%26.3%8.0%32.2%31.0%25.7%25.9%8.0%29.8%31.7%25.8%27.7%20.8%8.3%7.2%27.5%31.0%24.6%27.4%25.0%20.8%8.9%8.6%25.7%31.2%22.9%25.4%30.7%23.2%8.5%8.7%25.1%33.5%25.9%23.7%30.4%23.9%20.4%9.7%9.3%20.3%29.6%36.4%24.4%22.5%30.3%24.4%21.7%20.6%28.7%38.8%25.3%21.7%25.4%25.5%21.5%20.9%32.8%39.2%27.6%21.5%20.4%25.0%20.1%30.1%40.7%27.4%20.5%20.4%24.7%20.0%9.4%9.4%诚信专业发现价值标普500:盈利超预期家数占比过去10年中位数盈利超预期家数占比标普500：79.1%75.2%79.8%70.0%71.4%75.9%78.3%77.4%74.2%77.4%77.4%金融72.9%65.7%77.1%70.0%62.9%67.1%68.6%68.6%78.6%工业77.9%71.4%76.6%通讯服务72.7%63.6%90.9%77.3%36.4%72.7%房地产67.7%64.5%67.7%71.0%77.4%77.4%71.0%77.3%63.6%72.7%72.7%72.7%72.7%90.9%68.2%信息技术75.9%91.0%90.8%92.3%必选消费74.2%79.0%79.0%79.0%73.0%70.3%70.3%材料71.4%77.8%64.3%75.0%71.4%64.3%67.9%78.6%公用事业71.0%67.7%66.7%71.0%71.0%64.5%61.3%71.0%74.2%可选消费68.1%76.9%71.2%73.1%75.0%69.2%诚信专业发现价值10StoxxEurope600:收入增速——标普500:收入增速股盈利端总体较为疲弱，降息传导至经济和企业盈利仍需时80%60%40%20% -20%——欧洲:Stoxx600:EPS增速美国:标普500:EPS增速StoxxEurope600:分行业:EPS增速-10.5%-5.4%-14.2%-12.8%0.3%6.5%28.2%31.7%43.9%43.9%99.6%-18.3%58.6%-26.5%50.6%50.6%-36.3%36.0%-50.3%-11.3%-11.3%公用事业60.5%-29.3%-29.3%-56.6%-20.7%37.8%-0.7%-102.7%-102.7%30.6%-3.7%-137.0%71.7%-15.5%-14.2%-14.2%-61.5%28.6%-7.0%-8.5%-8.5%-5.8%5.9%3.7%加工工业28.5%-16.5%-33.7%-74.7%-56.7%-56.9%-43.3%-2.1%74.3%74.3%26.4%2.3%-26.9%-23.4%-22.0%-22.0%-4.3%-16.9%-20.0%-20.0%技术服务9.9%-15.9%27.7%63.3%29.2%29.2%-25.6%-16.5%-23.4%-6.5%-6.5%零售贸易9.8%8.1%24.6%0.9%2.9%6.4%9.9%7.8%3.9%3.7%20.1%-2.9%-26.8%-39.8%-46.5%-55.6%-10.9%-10.9%63.5%239.4%211.1%211.1%-5.2%-17.2%0.4%2.2%37.1%37.1%-32.1%-11.6%31.7%31.7%-12.4%-5.1%-12.1%-19.0%-13.0%-13.0%-16.9%51.2%73.2%-17.3%8.7%4.0%-8.9%39.9%-1.9%7.2%23.0%29.1%29.1%金融-27.5%20.0%-2.2%31.4%67.1%55.2%55.2%21.3%-3.0%8.7%-13.9%-13.9%运输-30.0%-64.8%-47.5%-23.1%-15.8%-32.5%-32.5%445.7%231.6%231.6%-38.9%-21.6%-4.8%-46.2%4.9%32.6%32.6%34.5%-52.7%-38.2%-37.7%-87.6%-42.4%-48.8%-48.8%-55.3%-34.7%-5.1%诚信专业发现价值12块构成最主要拖累（-12.7%若剔除金融板块，欧股盈利增速可能转正。而生产设StoxxEurope600:EPS增速:分行业贡献-10.5%-5.4%-14.2%-12.8%0.3%6.5%28.2%31.7%43.9%43.9%2.7%-1.4%2.3%-1.6%0.3%3.1%-2.4%2.0%-3.4%-1.2%-1.2%公用事业-0.6%-1.6%-2.9%-0.4%0.0%0.4%-1.6%-1.6%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.2%-0.4%-0.2%-0.1%0.1%0.1%0.5%0.7%-0.1%-2.5%-0.4%-0.4%2.1%0.6%加工工业0.5%-0.2%-0.8%-1.6%-1.9%-1.6%-1.0%-0.1%0.6%2.0%0.2%0.8%0.9%0.1%0.7%0.6%0.3%3.7%3.7%零售贸易0.2%0.1%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.6%技术服务0.2%-0.3%0.6%0.8%0.2%0.5%-0.6%-0.4%-0.6%-0.2%0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%-0.1%0.0%0.1%-0.1%0.2%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.3%-1.4%0.0%0.9%0.1%0.4%-4.7%-1.3%-0.3%-6.0%-9.2%-12.5%-14.4%-3.2%9.8%24.6%31.5%31.5%运输-1.0%-1.2%-1.6%-1.2%-0.7%-1.0%0.5%3.7%4.6%3.3%3.3%-1.2%-0.9%-1.9%-2.1%-1.6%-2.6%-4.8%-1.6%-0.3%5.0%5.0%-1.5%-0.9%-0.3%-1.9%0.2%0.8%0.7%金融-12.7%-12.7% 6.1% -0.6% 7.2% 4.9%-0.9%-0.9% 2.9%-3.9%诚信专业发现价值13——欧洲:Stoxx600:ROE(TTM)美国:标普500:ROE(TTM)欧洲:Stoxx600:净利润率(TTM)——美国:标普500:净利润率(TTM)诚信专业发现价值14StoxxEurope600:盈利超预期占场预期，2024年美国经济增速或由上年的2.5%降至2.3%，仍在2%以上，下行幅度但就业市场总体看仍偏温和；货币政策上，在5.5%的政策利率下，美联储后续仍有诚信专业发现价值15G7国家实际GDP增速(含预测)2.8%2.6%4.1%4.3%2.0%加拿大加拿大德国2.3%上年的1.2%提升至14.0%，在发达市场中仅次于韩国和日导体产业复苏，对TMT板块带来提高，另一方面美国内需仍然不弱+市场预储将开启降息窗口，对消费、金融对内需板块带来利好。CAPEX2024E9.7%2024E9.7%6.4%0.7%77.3%9.7%2025E9.7%6.2%28.0%2026E2.5%5.3%9.1%7.5%0.8%5.9%-27.1%4.9%0.2%0.2%-12.9%-12.7%-31.2%27.7%-12.6%发达市场:加拿大6.6%2.3%4.0%3.6%新兴市场:新兴市场:泰国6.7%0.1%3.1%诚信专业发现价值16标普500:PE(未来12个月)2000年以来中位数 5来源：Factset、华福证券研究所；截至2可选消费（55.4%）等板块分位数相对较低。诚信专业发现价值17PE(FY1):24-08PE(FY1):23-12过去10年均值分位数(过去10年)标普500：23.321.989.9%医疗健康22.621.5100.0%信息技术33.230.921.499.1%必选消费22.620.420.599.1%材料22.220.091.5%金融78.9%工业23.622.422.278.9%公用事业70.5%通讯服务20.720.220.561.3%可选消费27.129.531.455.4%房地产45.3%能源33.6%的诉求较大。从美股板块内部看，TMT板块内部信息技术估值处于历史需警惕风险，而通讯服务估值性价比较高，受益于AI产业驱动，公用事业同样具备EPSEPS增速预期(2024CY)通讯服务金融通讯服务金融信息技术可选消费公用事业房地产oo工业必选消费标普500医疗健康●●●●●.材料能源PE(FY1)诚信专业发现价值18险能力较差，在美联储持续加息周期中，盈利端受冲击历史偏高水位背景下，美股再平衡下中小盘股的配置价值有望持续凸显。——EPS增速:标普500EPS增速:标普中盘400——EPS增速:标普小盘60080%60%40%20% ——PE(FY1):标普500PE(FY1):标普中盘400——PE(FY1):标普小盘600诚信专业发现价值