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statisticianaveragetechnicalpublishedindependentwhateverillustratedaccuratephenomenonwisdomeffectobtainexperimentcapitalizessignificantestimationerrorsunderestimateconductedcrowdsoverestimatewillingresponsepotentialdominantreasoningimplicationlimitationdecisionenormouscauseoccasionalrelativelyfocusonprocessattitudedismissivedoubtfulapproving一、讲前自测:请写出下列单词的意思限时训练:请在8分钟内完成阅读理解,并把每一题的答题来源在文章中划出来,标明题号OnMarch7,1907,theEnglishstatisticianFrancisGaltonpublishedapaperwhichillustratedwhathasetobeknownasthe“wisdomofcrowds”effect.Theexperimentofestimationheconductedshowedthatinsomecases,theaverageofalargenumberofindependentestimatescouldbequiteaccurate.Thiseffectcapitalizesonthefactthatwhenpeoplemakeerrors,thoseerrorsaren’talwaysthesame.Somepeoplewilltendtooverestimate,andsometounderestimate.Whenenoughoftheseerrorsareaveragedtogether,theycanceleachotherout,resultinginamoreaccurateestimate.Ifpeoplearesimilarandtendtomakethesameerrors,thentheirerrorswon’tcanceleachotherout.Inmoretechnicalterms,thewisdomofcrowdsrequiresthatpeople’sestimatesbeindependent.Ifforwhateverreasons,people’serrorsbeecorrelatedordependent,theaccuracyoftheestimatewillgodown.ButanewstudyledbyJoaquinNavajasofferedaninterestingtwist(转折)onthisclassicphenomenon.Thekeyfindingofthestudywasthatwhencrowdswerefurtherdividedintosmallergroupsthatwereallowedtohaveadiscussion,theaveragesfromthesegroupsweremoreaccuratethanthosefromanequalnumberofindependentindividuals.Forinstance,theaverageobtainedfromtheestimatesoffourdiscussiongroupsoffivewassignificantlymoreaccuratethantheaverageobtainedfrom20independentindividuals.Inafollowupstudywith100universitystudents,theresearcherstriedtogetabettersenseofwhatthegroupmembersactuallydidintheirdiscussion.Didtheytendtogowiththosemostconfidentabouttheirestimates?Didtheyfollowthoseleastwillingtochangetheirminds?Thishappenedsomeofthetime,butitwasn’tthedominantresponse.Mostfrequently,thegroupsreportedthatthey“sharedargumentsandreasonedtogether”.Somehow,theseargumentsandreasoningresultedinaglobalreductioninerror.AlthoughthestudiesledbyNavajashavelimitationsandmanyquestionsremain,thepotentialimplicationsforgroupdiscussionanddecisionmakingareenormous.1.Whatisparagraph2ofthetextmainlyabout?A.Themethodsofestimation. B.Theunderlyinglogicoftheeffect.C.Thecausesofpeople’serrors. D.ThedesignofGalton’sexperiment.2.Navajas’studyfoundthattheaverageaccuracycouldincreaseevenif________.A.thecrowdswererelativelysmall B.therewereoccasionalunderestimatesC.individualsdidnotmunicate D.estimateswerenotfullyindependent3.Whatdidthefollowupstudyfocuson?A.Thesizeofthegroups. B.Thedominantmembers.C.Thediscussionprocess. D.Theindividualestimates.4.Whatistheauthor’sattitudetowardNavajas’studies?A.Unclear. B.Dismissive. C.Doubtful. D.Approving.重点句子分析OnMarch7,1907,theEnglishstatisticianFrancisGaltonpublishedapaperwhichillustratedwhathasetobeknownasthe“wisdomofcrowds”effect.请指出主句的主谓宾,划出从句部分并判断2个从句类型,最后翻译句子Theexperimentofestimationheconductedshowedthatinsomecases,theaverageofalargenumberofindependentestimatescouldbequiteaccurate.请分析句子并且进行翻译Thiseffectcapitalizesonthefactthatwhenpeoplemakeerrors,thoseerrorsaren’talwaysthesame.请指出此处的that引导的从句是__________从句Whenenoughoftheseerrorsareaveragedtogether,theycanceleachotherout,resultinginamoreaccurateestimate.Ifpeoplearesimilarandtendtomakethesameerrors,thentheirerrorswon’tcanceleachotherout.Inmoretechnicalterms,thewisdomofcrowdsrequiresthatpeople’sestimatesbeindependent.Ifforwhateverreasons,people’serrorsbeecorrelatedordependent,theaccuracyoftheestimatewillgodown.请翻译段落Thekeyfindingofthestudywasthatwhencrowdswerefurtherdividedintosmallergroupsthatwereallowedtohaveadiscussion,theaveragesfromthesegroupsweremoreaccuratethanthosefromanequalnumberofindependentindividuals.请指出两处that引导的从句分别是什么从句并且进行翻译Forinstance,theaverageobtainedfromtheestimatesoffourdiscussiongroupsoffivewassignificantlymoreaccuratethantheaverageobtainedfrom20independentindividuals.划出主句的主谓宾,并翻译Inafollowupstudywith100universitystudents,theresearcherstriedtogetabettersenseofwhatthegroupmembersactuallydidintheirdiscussion.请指出what引导的从句的类型,并且解释为什么这里填what,而不是which或者that。AlthoughthestudiesledbyNavajashavelimitationsandmanyquestionsremain,thepotentialimplicationsforgroupdiscussionanddecisionmakingareenormous.翻译句子语法填空OnMarch7,1907,theEnglishstatisticianFrancisGaltonpublishapaperwhichillustratedwhathasetobeknown_______the“wisdomofcrowds”effect.Theexperimentofestimationhe_______________(conduct)showedthatinsomecases,theaverageofalargenumberofindependentestimatescouldbequiteaccurate.Thiseffectcapitalizesonthefact___________whenpeoplemakeerrors,thoseerrorsaren’talwaysthesame.Somepeoplewilltendtooverestimate,andsometounderestimate.Whenenoughoftheseerrorsareaveragedtogether,theycanceleachotherout,___________(result)inamoreaccurateestimate.Ifpeoplearesimilarandtendtomakethesameerrors,then_______(they)errorswon’tcanceleachotherout.Inmoretechnicalterms,thewisdomofcrowdsrequiresthat___________(people)estimatesbeindependent.Ifforwhateverreasons,people’serrorsbeecorrelatedordependent,the____________(accurate)oftheestimatewillgodown.Butanewstudy_________(lead)byJoaquinNavajasofferedaninterestingtwist(转折)onthisclassicphenomenon.Thekeyfindingofthestudywasthatwhencrowdswerefurtherdividedintosmallergroupsthat____________(allow)tohaveadiscussion,theaveragesfromthesegroupsweremoreaccuratethanthosefromanequalnumberofindependentindividuals.______instance,theaverageobtainedfromtheestimatesoffourdiscussiongroupsoffivewas______________(significant)moreaccuratethantheaverageobtainedfrom20independentindividuals.

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