追踪劳动力市场绿色转型：大数据助力识别绿色技能+Tracking+the+Green+Transition+in+Labour+Markets

ISSN:2529-3397

eEEFP

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Trackingthegreentransition

inlabourmarkets

Usingbigdatatoidentifytheskillsthatmakejobsgreener

POLICYBRIEF

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarkets

PolicyBackground

POLICY

BACKGROUND

Inthissection

TranslatingEUambitionsinto

regionalactioniscrucialto

successfulgreentransition

Data-driveninitiativessupportthe

implementationoftheEuropean

GreenDeal

Thelabourmarketandskills

impactofgreentransitionlacks

coveragebyindicators

2

©iStock/AlxeyPnferov

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarkets

PolicyBackground

TranslatingEUambitionsintoregionalactioniscrucialtosuccessfulgreentransition3

TranslatingEU

ambitionsinto

regionalaction

iscrucialto

successfulgreentransition

©MartinBergsma/

The

EuropeanGreenDeal

andits

industrialplan

istheEU’sbroadandmultifacetedresponsetoclimatechange.Itisthebloc’spolicyframeworkfortransitioningfromaneconomythatreliesonfossilfuelsandpracticesharmingtheenvironmenttoonethatprioritisessustainability,environmentalprotection,andcarbonneutrality.

Greentransitionisalsoaboutembracingthecircu-lareconomytopromoterecycling,reducingandre-usingwastetominimiseresourceconsumptionandenvironmentalimpact(Cedefop2023b).Onthewaytoacarbon-neutraleconomy,toattainthegoalslaiddownintheEuropeanGreenDealand

Europe-

anClimateLaw

by2050,Europe’scompetitivenesswillhingeonitsabilitytoinnovateandtodevelopandmainstreamcleantechnologies.Ensuringthatgreentransitionbenefitsallcitizens,includingvul-nerablegroups,isatthecoreoftheEU’sapproach.Alongsidepursuinggreentechinnovationandupscaling,creatinggreenjobs,addressingsocialinequalities,andprovidingaccesstocleanandaffordableresourcesareheadlinepriorities.

AsregionsintheEUdifferintermsproductionofgoodsandservices,labourmarketstructureandemployment,regionalGHGemissionsandchallengesvarysignificantly.Thegreentransitioncannotbejustwithoutdesigningandimplementingregionalpathwaysandsolutions.Someregionsfacejoblossesintraditionalindustries;inothers,green-ingleadstojobcreationinparticularsectors.Theworkforceskillingneededinthetransitionrequiresclosecollaborationbetweenregionalgovernments,educationinstitutions,andbusinessestoaligntrainingwithevolvingmarketdemands.Systemsmonitoringthegreentransitionatregionallevelwillbeessentialtoassessprogress,toevaluatepolicyeffectivenessandtoensurethatsustainability,en-vironmentalprotection,andcarbonreductiongoalsandtargetsaremet.

...theEuropeanGreen

DealhelpstheEUtransitiontoaneconomythat

prioritisessustainability,

environmentalprotectionandcarbonneutrality...

...greentransitionisalso

aboutembracingthecirculareconomyandreducingand

reusingwastetominimise

resourceconsumptionandenvironmentalimpact...

...skillingneededinthetransitionrequiresclosecollaboration

betweenregionalgovernments,educationinstitutions,and

businessestoaligntrainingwithevolvingmarketdemands...

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarkets

PolicyBackground

Data-driveninitiativessupporttheimplementationoftheEuropeanGreenDeal4

Eurostat’sStatisticsfortheEGDmonitorsgreentransitionvia26indicatorscoveringthreedomains:

reducingourclimateimpact:e.g.theshareofzero-emissionvehiclesregisteredintheyear;

greenhousegasemissions;

protectingourplanetandhealth:e.g.the

shareoftotalutilisedagriculturalareaoccupiedbyorganicfarming);

enablingagreenandjusttransition:e.g.theshareofpopulationunabletokeepthehomeadequatelywarmduetofinancialreasons.

Totalgreenhousegasemissionsdropped10%between2019and2023,mainlythankstothetransitionintheenergysupplysector(1).Publicinvestmentinalternativeenergyresourcessuchassolarandwind,fundedbytheREPowerEUPlan,acceleratedinresponsetotheturmoilonenergymarketsfollowingRussia’sinvasionofUkrainein2022.Bysettingthe2030EUrenewableenergyconsumptiontargetat42.5%(witha2.5%indicativetopuptoreach45%),therevisedrenewableenergydirectiveannouncedinOctober2023furtherraisedexpectationsoftheenergysectortocontributetogreentransition.

Data-driven

initiatives

supportthe

implementationoftheEuropeanGreenDeal

TheEuropeanStrategyforDataintroducedin2020aimstoacceleratethegrowthoftheEuropeaneconomyandleveragethepotentialofdataforthebenefitofsociety.Aspartofthestrategy,theEuropeanCommissioncommittedtoinvestinginsharedEuropeandataspaces.TheGreenDealDataSpace(GDDS)aimstoempowerpolicy-makers,businesses,researchers,andindividualsinEuropeandgloballycollectivelytoaddressclimatechangeandmovetoacirculareconomy.Italsofacilitatespollutionreduction,biodiversitypreservation,tack-lingdeforestation,andregulatorycompliance.

TheGreenTransitionNavigator–aninnovativeplatformharnessingovertwodecadesoftradedata–offersinsightsintogreenopportunities,competitiveness,transitionrisks,andfuturegreendiversificationpotentialforcountriesandregions.Policy-makers,businesses,andotherstakeholderscanleveragesuchinformationtomakeinformeddecisionsonsustainableeconomicdevelopmentandtocapitaliseonemerginggreenmarkets.

(1)Eurostat.AiremissionsaccountsforgreenhousegasesbyNACERev.2activity.env_ac_aigg_q.

TheEuropeanSpaceAgency(ESA)hascompletedthefirstphaseofthegreentransitioninformationfactory,apioneeringpilotprojectshowcasingtheuntappedpotentialofspacetechnologiestosupportthegreentransitioninAustria.Thefactory’sSolarenergysitesuitabilityassessment&trade-offtoolprovidesacomprehensiveanalysisofsolarirradi-anceandsolarenergypotentialacrossthecountry.TheWindenergysitesuitabilityassessment&trade-offtoolhasasimilarpurposeforthedevelopmentofwindfarms.ThegreentransitioninformationfactoryistobescaleduptocoverthewholeofEurope.

©venusvi/

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarkets

PolicyBackground

Data-driveninitiativessupporttheimplementationoftheEuropeanGreenDeal5

In2022,onlytwoEUMemberStates(FinlandandSweden)metthe2030target.Insomelargercoun-tries,suchasGermany,SpainandFrance,theshareofrenewableresourcesinoverallenergyconsumption,increasedbyaround20%.Insomesmaller-sizedcountries,suchasMaltaandTheNetherlands,thein-creasewasmorethanhalf;inLuxembourgtheshareofrenewablesinenergyconsumptionmorethandoubled(Figure1).

Figure1.Shareofrenewablesinenergyconsumption(2022)andchange(2019-22)

Shareofrenewableenergyconsumptioningross

finalenergyconsumption

70

SE

FI

LV

DK

A

T

PT

EE

CH

EU-27EL

DEES

BG

ITCZFRSKPL

HIE

U

BE

CY

NL

MT

LU

RO

LT

30

60

40

20

50

SI

10

0

-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%

Changeintheshareofrenewableenergybetween2022and2019

©BlackSalmon/.

Source:Eurostat.Shareofrenewableenergyingrossfinalenergyconsumptionbysector

SDG_07_40

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarkets

PolicyBackground

Thelabourmarketandskillsimpactofgreentransitionlackscoveragebyindicators6

Thelabourmarketandskillsimpactofgreentransitionlackscoveragebyindicators

©MarkoAliaksandr/

Monitoringthegreentransition’slabourmarketimpactanditseffectonskillsindemandisvitalforanticipatinglabourmarketimbalancesandaddressingworkerandskillsshortages.Ideally,indicatorsmonitoringandanticipatingcurrentchallengeslinkedtogreentransitionshouldtrackemploymentandskillstrendsinsectorsadvancingandchampioningenvironmentalsustainability,re-

newableenergy,energyefficiencyandthecirculareconomy.

Acrossthemorethan

30compositeindicators&

scoreboards

onEuropeanGreenDealimplementa-tion,onlyafewincludemeasuringtheimportanceofhumancapital.TheseincludetheWorldEco-nomicForumenergytransitionindex,theEco-in-novationscoreboard,andtheGlobalGreenGrowthInstituteindex.Whiletheseindicatorscapturetheemploymentdimensionofgreentransition,noneofthemevaluateskillsandskillmismatches.Suchinformationiscrucialtoidentifyskillsareasandlabourmarketsegmentswhereeducation,trainingandskillingforthegreentransitionareneeded.

Monitoringlabourmarkettrendsandskillsneedsinthegreentransitioncanbechallenging.Dataqualityvariesacrossregionsandmanyconventionaldatasourceslackgranularityintermsofjobs,tasksand

skills.Inthepast,findingdatatoadequatelymeas-ureandinterpretlabourmarketchangebroughtaboutbygreeningwasoftenastruggle.Withtheadventofbigdatabasedononlinejobadvertise-ments(OJA),thesituationhasbeenimproving.AstudybytheJointResearchCentre(JRC)summa-risingpossiblewaystoidentifygreenoccupationsinEuropeshowsthat,withsomerestrictions,jobadvertisementdataareoneofthemostpromisingsources(Vona,2021).

CedefophasteamedupwithEurostattobuildthewebintelligencehubonlinejobadvertisement(WIH-OJA)database.Thedatabasehasbeenusedtodevelopadata-drivenmethod(Box1)tomaphowthegreeningofeconomiesinEuropeimpactslabourmarkets.Thisgivesdetailedinsightintochangesinoccupationsbroughtaboutbythegreentransitionandmakesitpossibletoidentifythegreentransitionskillsmostindemand.Bypresentingseveralillustrativefindings,thispolicybriefdemonstratesthepotentialofusingonlinejobadvertisementsinthecontextofmonitoringthelabourmarketandskillsdimensionsofthegreentransition.

...indicators...shouldtrack...trendsinsectorsadvancingandchampioningsustainability,renewableenergy,energyefficiencyandthecirculareconomy...

...itiscrucialtoidentify

skillsareasandlabourmarket

segmentswhereeducation,

trainingandskillingforthe

greentransitionareneeded...

...Cedefophasusedthe

webintelligencehubonline

jobadvertisement(WIH-OJA)databasetomapthe

labourmarketimpactofgreening...

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarkets

PolicyBackground

Thelabourmarketandskillsimpactofgreentransitionlackscoveragebyindicators7

Box1.Cedefop’sgreenskillsmethodology:greennessandgreenpervasivenessexplained

ThemainassumptionintheCedefopapproachisthatthepresenceofskillsneededforthegreeneconomyinonlinejobadsdefineswheth-erornotanoccupationisgreenandhowgreenitis.Agreenoccupationmustincludeatleastonesuchskill.Whatskillsareconsideredgreenisguidedbytheskillsfoundinthemarket:fol-lowingonfromthebottom-upapproachmeth-odology

(NESTA,2021),

Cedefophascompiledabagofgreen-relatedwords,whichincludesgreentechnologies,tasks,roles,toolsandskills.Thefollowingreports,documents,frameworksandtaxonomieswereusedtocreateit:

Classificationofenvironmentalprotection

activities

(CEPA2000);

Classificationofresourcemanagementac-

tivities

(CReMA);

IRENAGlobalRenewablesOutlook2020

;

Linkedin

‘green’skills;

SGGSingapore

greeneconomyskills;

JointResearchCentre’s

GreenCompframe-

work

;

O*NET

and

ESCOgreenclassifications

.

Cedefopusedalistof140wordsinEnglishobtainedfromthesepublicationstotrainamachine-learningmodel.Thelistofgreenskilltermswasenhancedwithlexiconvariationsusing6millionOJAscollectedin2019intheUK.Theenhancedlist,with182extractedtermsinEnglish,wassubsequentlytranslatedbyna-

tionalexpertsforalllanguagescoveredintheWIH-OJAsystemandusedforontology-basedextraction.Thesampleofobservationsextract-edfromOJAswasalsovalidatedbynationalexpertstoconfirmandcreateavalidtrainingdataset.Usingcosinesimilarity,eachgreenskilltermbecameassociatedwiththeESCOgreenskillstaxonomy.Wheresuchassociationdidnotexist,thetermwasaddedasanewgreenskillterm.Mostidentifiedgreentransitionskillstermscovertechnologies,sustainabilityprin-ciplesoraspectspointingtowardscorporatesocialresponsibility(Figure2).

Tounderstandbetterhoweachoccupationisimpactedby‘greentransition’twoindicators

wereconstructed:greenpervasivenessandgreenness.

GreenpervasivenessmeansomnipresenceofgreenskillsintheOJAsandiscalculatedastheratioofallOJAswithatleastonegreenskilltothetotalnumberofOJAsinoccupations,sectors,countries,orotheranalysiscategories.

Greennesscomparesthenumberofgreenskillstothetotalnumberofskillsfoundinonlinejobadsinsuchcategories.

Whiletheapproachiscutting-edge,oneofitskeylimitationsisunderestimatinggreenoccupationsintheeconomy.Inonlinejobads

forgreenoccupationswhichincludethegreendimensioninthejobtitle(e.g.sustainableen-gineer),employersmayrefrainfrommentioningothergreenskillsinthedescriptionofjobre-quirements.Informationaboutthe‘greenness’ofapositionmayalsonotbeincludedinthepartofanonlinejobadthatdescribesskillsre-quirementstopotentialcandidates,butpresentinthepartwhichdescribescorporatemissionorvision(e.g.‘we’recommittedtodrivingenergyefficiencyandaddressingglobalenvironmentalchallenges’or‘thecompany’smissionistocre-ateasustainablebrand’).Somegreentransitionskillstermscannotbedetectedbecausenewtechnologyhasonlystartedtoemerge.Thisislessofaprobleminthelongerterm,assuchskillswillbeeventuallydetectedbyalgorithmsthattrackemergingskills.

©K.BOM/

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarkets

PolicyBackground

Thelabourmarketandskillsimpactofgreentransitionlackscoveragebyindicators8

Figure2.Greentransitionskillsextractedfromonlinejobadvertisements

NB:Onlygreentransitionskillspresentatleast200000timesarepresented.

Source:WIH-OJAdata.©SergeyNivens/

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarkets

Evidence

EVIDENCE

Inthissection

Wholesaleandretailtrade

employersneedtoacceleratetheir

greentransition

OJAshelpuncoverrolescrucialto

renewableenergy

OJAshelpmonitorcircular

economypracticeuptake

Bigdataincreasesopportunities

tomonitorthegreentransition

regionally

Skillssupportinglean

manufacturinghelpconstruction

sectorgreentransition

Greencomputingskillsreducethe

environmentalimpactoftechnology

Regulatorychangelikelyto

increasedemandforsustainability

reportingexpertiseandskills

9

©TintMedia/

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarketsEvidenceWholesaleandretailtradeemployersneedtoacceleratetheirgreentransition10

Wholesaleandretailtrade

employersneedtoaccelerate

theirgreentransition

ishighestinenergy,where17%ofonlinejobadsincludedatleastonesuchskill.Itislowestinwholesaleandretailtrade,whereonlyin1in50jobads(2%)weregreenskillsmentioned(Figure3).

Jobsinthetradesectorwillneedrapidlytobecomegreener.Itisestimatedthatupto2030retailersandwholesalersneedtoinvestaroundEUR120-300billiontomaketheiroperationscarbonneutral.AfurtherEUR15-35billionwillbeneededtoshiftfromlineartocircularbusinessmodelsandsystems.TradeemployersalsoneedtoincreasehumancapitalinvestmentandinvestEUR25-30billiontoupskilltheirworkforce:thisis40-60%morethanwhatthesectorspendsnow.Reskillingthetradeworkforceforgreenroles,tasks,andskillsamountstoaninvestmentofEUR500milliontoEUR3billion(EuroCommerce2022).

Asindustriesandorganisationsbecomegreener,demandforworkerswithgreenexpertisewillsurge.Companieswillincreasinglyrelyonpeoplewithskillsandexpertiseinleanmanufacturing,renewableenergytechnologies,environmentalen-gineering,wastemanagement,greencomputing,resourceefficiency,andenvironmentalmanage-ment.Itwillbecrucialtoinvestineducationandtrainingprogrammestoequiptheworkforcewiththenecessarygreentransitionskillstomeetlabourmarketneedsandtocontributetoamoresustain-ablefuture.

Greenpervasivenessinskillsdemand(definedinBox1)increasedfrom3%in2019to5%in2022.ThissignalsthatemployerstranslatecommitmenttoachievingEuropeanGreenDealgoalsintogreeningoperations.Amonghighclimateimpactsectors(2)demandforskillsforthegreentransition

Figure3.AveragegreenpervasivenessinhighclimateimpactsectorsinEU27

2%

3%

3%

4%

5%

WholesaleandretailtradeTransportationandstorage RealestateactivitiesAllsectors

Manufacturing

6%6%6%

Construction MiningandquarryingAgriculture,forestryandfishing

12%

17%

Watersupply;sewerage,wastemanagementElectricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply

10%

0%5%

20%

15%

NB:Averagescalculatedusingonlinejobadspublishedin2019-22.

Source:WIH-OJA.

©insta_photos/

(2)HighclimateimpactsectorsarethoselistedinNACESectionsAtoHandSectionL(definedinCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)2022/1288).

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarkets

EvidenceOJAshelpuncoverrolescrucialtorenewableenergy11

OJAshelpuncoverrolescrucialto

renewableenergy

©GRAFstock/

Recenttrendsintheenergysectornaturallytranslatedintomoredemandforrenewableenergyprofessionals(Cedefop2023c).Thejobvacancyrateintheenergysectoralmostdoubledfrom1.0%to1.9%between2019(pre-COVID)andthe4thquarterof2023(3).Whileofficialvacancystatisticshelptrackvacancytrendsinthesector,theydonotgiveinsightintotherenewableenergyoccupationsorprofilesindemand.

Whereoccupationaldataareavailable,usingtheminthecontextofgreentransitionischallenging,giventhatmanyoccupationsrelevantforrenewableenergyhaveonlyrecentlyemerged.

Eveninformationatthe4-digitleveloftheinterna-tionalclassificationofoccupations(ISCO)willnotcapturemanycontemporaryjobrolesinenergy,asthelastISCOupdatetookplacein2008(Box2).

Jobsforrenewableandsolarenergysalesconsult-ants,whicharecurrentlyclassifiedastechnical,andmedicalsalesprofessionalsarecasesinpoint.Lookingatthe5-digitlevel,thereisenormousvariationbetweencountrieswhenitcomestothecompositionofthisgroup.Inrecentyears,jobsforrenewablesalesprofessionals’accountedforhalfoftheonlinejobadsfortechnicalandmedicalsalesprofessionalsinGermany;inItalythiswasonly15%(Figure4,upperpanel).

(3)Eurostat.

obvacancystatisticsbyNACERev.2activity,oc-

cupationandNUTS2regions–quarterlydata

.

Starkdifferencesarealsovisibleinthedemandforpowerplantoperators(Figure4,lowerpanel).InGermany65%ofonlinejobadsforsuchoperatorswereforonshorewindfarmtechnicians,doubletheshareobservedforItaly(33%).Onlinejobadsforoffshorerenewableenergyplantoperatorsrepresented22%ofthetotaldemandforpowerplantoperatorsinGermany,threetimestheshareobservedinItaly(7%).Understandingthecomposi-tionofdemandforprofessionalsinotherrenewableenergysectors(includinggeothermal,solar,hydro-electricornuclear)wouldrequireoccupationstobeclassifiedatthe5-digitlevelorevenlower.

Box2.Granulardataareessentialformonitoring‘green’occupationdemand

InformationaboutjobtitlepresentinonlinejobadsintheWIH-OJAdatabaseisprocessedtomatchitwithanISCOcodetoderiveinforma-tionaboutdemandforoccupations.Manyrolesrelevantforthegreeneconomytoday,whichdidnotexistwhenISCOwaslastupdatedin2008,arelabelledas‘occupationsnotelse-whereclassified’.Intheperiodfrom2018toend-2022theshareofsuchoccupationsinthetotalvolumeofgreenoccupationsroseto12%,meaningthat,in2022,420000onlinejobadscouldnotbeeffectivelyclassified(Figure5).

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarketsEvidenceOJAshelpuncoverrolescrucialtorenewableenergy12

Figure4.Demandfortechnicalandmedicalsalesprofessionals(upperpanel)andpowerplantoperators(lowerpanel)byoccupation(ISCO5-digit)inGermanyandItaly.

DE

1%

renewableenergy

solarenergy

sales

consultant

non-renewableenergyjobs

50%50%49%

renewableenergyjobs

consultant

IT

renewableenergyjobs

85%

non-renewableenergyjobs

7%

renewable

energy

consultant

8%

solarenergy

sales

consultant

otherpowerproductionplant

operators

13%

22%

ofshorerenewableenergyplant

operator

65%

onshorewindfarmtechnician

7%

ofshorerenewableenergyplant

operator

33%

onshorewindfarmtechnician

60%

otherpower

productionplant

operators

Source:WIH-OJA.

PolicybriefTrackingthegreentransitioninlabourmarkets

EvidenceOJAshelpuncoverrolescrucialtorenewableenergy13

Figure5.OJAsadvertisingoccupationsclassifiedasgreen(millions)andshareofoccupationsnotelsewhereclassified(%),EU(Q32018-Q42022)

Stockofgreenoccupations(inmillions)

"notelsewhereclassified"

fall

14%12%10%8%6%4%2%

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

00%

Q

3Q4Q2018

1Q2Q3Q4Q2019

1

Q2

Q3Q42020

Q

1Q2Q3Q4Q2021

1Q2Q3Q42022

StockofOnlinejobadvertisementsrecruitingforgreenoccupations

oGreenoccupationsclassifiedas"notelsewhereclassified"aspercentageofallgreenoccupations

NB:O*NETtaxonomyusedtoclassifywhichoccupationsaregreen.Source:WIH-OJA.

©Loran1408/

Difficultiesinpinpointingthenatureofoccupationsmaketheanalysisofthegreeneconomy,andtheskillsitrequires,challenging.Thisismoresobe-causesomeISCO4-digitoccupationgroups–apartfromrolesdirectlylinkedtorenewableenergy–alsoincludeoccupationsnotrelevantforthesector.Therefore,analysisatISCO4-digitlevelmayleadtoanoverestimationofdemand.Cedefopanalysisofrolesfortherenewableenergymarketbasedontechnicalandmedicalsalesrepresentatives(ISCO2433)illustratesthis.OfallonlinejobadsforsuchsalesrepresentativesinGermany,Spain,Italy,andFinland,only1%wasforrenewableenergycon-sultantsand4%forsolarenergyconsultants.Thelion’sshare(95%ofOJAs)wasformedicalsalesrepresentatives,technicalsalesreps,oranothersalesoccupationoutsideoftheenergysector.

UsingtheESCO-based5-digitleveloccupationclassificationgreatlyimprovesunderstandingofthenatureandstructureofdemandforsomegreentransitionoccupations.Forexample,forpowerpro-ductionplantoperators(ISCO3131),themajorityofOJAs(64%)isforonshore(64%)oroffshore(17%)windfarmtechnicians.

...difficultiesin

pinpointingthenatureofoccupationsmake

th