国际能源署-2024年第三季度天然气市场报告-2024-07-宏观大势

GasMarketReport,

Q3-2024

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocates

policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,

affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationof

internationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Revisedversion,July2024Informationnoticefoundat:/corrections

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgency

Website:

IEAmembercountries:

AustraliaAustria

BelgiumCanada

CzechRepublic

DenmarkEstonia

Finland

France

GermanyGreece

HungaryIrelandItaly

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

NetherlandsNewZealand

NorwayPolandPortugal

SlovakRepublic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA

IEAassociationcountries:

ArgentinaBrazil

China

Egypt

India

IndonesiaKenya

MoroccoSenegal

Singapore

SouthAfricaThailand

Ukraine

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|3

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Abstract

Abstract

Naturalgasmarketsmovedtomorepronouncedgrowthinthefirsthalfof2024,withinitialestimatesindicatingthatglobalgasdemandincreasedataratewellaboveitshistoricalaverageduringthis

period.DemandgrowthisprimarilysupportedbyhighergasuseinindustryandisincreasinglyconcentratedinAsia,wherebothChinaandIndiareturnedtodouble-digitgrowthratesinthefirsthalfof

2024.

Despitethisstronggrowth,theoutlookforgasdemandremains

fragile.GlobalLNGproductionunderperformedinthesecond

quarterof2024,whilegeopoliticaltensionsarefuellingprice

volatility.Naturalgaspricesincreasedacrossallkeymarketsinthesecondquarterof2024,reflectingtightermarketfundamentals.Forthefullyearof2024,naturalgasdemandisforecasttoincreaseby2.5%in2024,primarilydrivenbyfast-growingAsianmarkets.

Geopoliticalinstabilityrepresentsthegreatestrisktotheshort-termoutlook.LNGtradehaspracticallyhaltedacrosstheRedSeasincethestartoftheyear,whileRussiaisincreasinglytargetingenergy

infrastructureinUkraine,includingundergroundgasstorage

facilities.Inthiscontext,securityofsupplyfornaturalgasremainsakeyaspectofenergypolicymakingandtherisksrelatedtoour

outlookhighlighttheneedtostrengtheninternationalco-operation,includinginassessingandimplementingflexibilityoptionsalonggasandLNGvaluechains.

ThiseditionofthequarterlyGasMarketReportbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)providesathoroughreviewofmarket

developmentsoverthefirsthalfof2024andashort-termoutlookfortheremainderof2024.AspartoftheIEA’sLow-EmissionsGasesWorkProgramme,thereportincludesasectiondedicatedtothe

medium-termoutlookforbiomethane,low-emissionshydrogenande-methane.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Tableofcontents

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|4

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 5

Gasmarketupdate 11

Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissionsgases 43

Annex 55

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|5

Executivesummary

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|6

Globalgasmarketsreturnedtogrowthinthefirsthalfof2024,butoutlookremainsfragile

Followingthenaturalgassupplyshockof2022andagradualrebalancingin2023,gasmarketsmovedtomorepronouncedgrowthinthefirsthalfof2024.Initialestimatesindicatethat

globalgasdemandincreasedby3%year-on-year(y-o-y)duringthisperiod,wellabovethehistorical2%averagegrowthratebetween

2010and2020.Despitethisstronggrowth,therecoveryremains

fragile.GlobalLNGproductionunderperformedinthesecond

quarter,whilegeopoliticaltensionsarefuellingpricevolatility.

Duringthefirstquarterof2024,gaspricesdroppedtolevelslast

seenbeforetheglobalenergycrisis,howeverpriceshaveincreasedacrossallkeymarketsinrecentmonths,reflectingtightersupply-

demandfundamentals.Gasdemandgrowthisexpectedto

moderateinthesecondhalfof2024.Forthefullyearof2024,

globalgasdemandisforecasttoincreaseby2.5%,primarilydrivenbyfast-growingAsianmarkets.

Asiawasthedrivingforcebehindglobalgasdemandgrowthinthefirsthalfof2024

Preliminarydatasuggestthatglobalnaturalgasdemand

increasedby3%inthefirsthalfof2024.However,70%ofthisdemandgrowthwasconcentratedinthefirstquarter.LNGsupplydeclinedyear-on-yearinthesecondquarter,creatingupward

pressureongaspricesacrosskeyimportmarkets,whichinturnweighedondemandgrowth.

Asiaaccountedforaround60%oftheincreaseinglobalgas

demandinthefirsthalfof2024,withdemandinbothChinaandIndiaincreasingbyjustover10%y-o-y.Highergasuseinindustrycontributedtoalmost65%ofglobaldemandgrowthinthefirsthalfof2024.Thiswasprimarilysupportedbytheeconomicexpansionoffast-growingAsianmarkets.Gasuseinthepowersectorgrewbyamoremoderate2%y-o-y,asthestronggainsinNorthAmerica,

fast-growingAsianmarketsandEurasiawerepartiallyoffsetby

lowergas-firedpowergenerationinEurope.Gasdemandintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsgrewby1%y-o-yamid

unseasonablywarmtemperaturesinthefirstquarter.

GlobalLNGsupplydecreasedinthesecondquarter–itsfirstcontractionsincetheCovidlockdownsin2020

GlobalLNGsupplygrowthremainedlacklustreinthefirsthalfof2024,increasingbyamere2%,oraround6bcm,year-on-year.ThisgrowthwasentirelyconcentratedinthefirstquarterasLNGproductionrosebyarobust4.5%(or6.5bcm).Bycontrast,

LNGoutputfellby0.5%,or0.5bcm,y-o-yinthesecondquarterof2024.Thisrepresentsthefirsty-o-yquarterlydeclinesince2020,whenCovid-inducedlockdownsdrasticallyreducedLNGdemandandledtowidespreadcargocancellations.Inthesecondquarterof2024,thedeclineinLNGproductionwaslargelydrivenbya

combinationoffeedgassupplyissuesandunexpectedoutages.

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|7

Year-on-yeargrowthinLNGsupplyisexpectedtoaccelerate

duringthesecondhalfof2024,withnewliquefactioncapacity

comingonline.TheUnitedStatesissettoprovidethelion’sshareofnewexportcapacitythisyearasexistingplantsexpandandnew

plantsstartoperating.ThisincludestheexpansionofFreeportLNG,theramp-upofPlaqueminesLNGPhase1overthesummer,andtheexpectedstart-upofCorpusChristiStage3neartheendof

2024.TheTortueFLNGplantoffthecoastofWestAfricaisduetocomeonlineinthefourthquarter.

Naturalgaspricesincreasedacrossallkeymarketsinthesecondquarter

ThecontractioninLNGsupplycombinedwithstrongAsiandemandgrowthtightenedtheglobalgasbalanceinthesecondquarter.

Moreover,uncertaintiesre-emergedaroundRussianpipedgassuppliestoEurope,whichfuelledadditionalpricevolatility.

Consequently,gaspricesroseacrosskeyAsianandEuropean

markets,risingabovetheir2023levelsbyJune2024.IntheUnitedStates,HenryHubpricesrecoveredfromtheirmulti-decadelows,risingbyalmost70%betweenMarchandJune.Productioncutsbyupstreamplayers,astrongincreaseingas-firedpowergenerationandhighergasexportsallprovidedupwardsupporttogasprices.

Naturalgasdemandgrowthisexpectedtoslowinthesecondhalfof2024

Globalgasdemandgrowthisexpectedtofallbelow2%y-o-yinthesecondhalfof2024.Inpart,theeasingreflectsthegradual

recoveryindemand,whichwasalreadyunderwayinthesecond

halfof2023.Forthefullyearof2024,globalgasdemandis

forecasttogrowby2.5%,orjustover100bcm.Weexpectthe

limitedincreaseinglobalLNGsupplytorestraingrowthinimport

markets.Industryemergesasthemostimportantdrivingforce

behindglobaldemand,asgasuseinthepowersectorisforecasttoincreaseonlymarginally.Thisisbecausegrowthinfast-growing

Asianmarketsandingas-richcountriesinAfrica,theMiddleEastandNorthAmericaisexpectedtobepartiallyoffsetbydeclinesinEurope.

Low-emissionsgassupplyisexpectedtomorethandoubleby2027

Thedeploymentoflow-emissionsgasesisexpectedto

accelerateoverthemediumterm.Ourcurrentforecastseesthesupplyoflow-emissionsgasesmorethandoublingby2027,

translatingintoanincreaseofalmost16bcminabsoluteterms.

Thisrepresentsasignificantupwardrevisioncomparedwithour

medium-termoutlooklastyearandreflectsgrowingpolicysupportforlow-emissionsgases.EuropeandNorthAmericaaresettodrivethisexpansion,contributingover70%oftheoverallgrowth.

Nevertheless,furthereffortsarerequiredtounleashthefull

potentialoflow-emissionsgasesandreachtheambitioustargetssetbygovernments.BesidesEuropeandNorthAmerica,anumberofemerginglow-emissionsgasproducersareexpectedtoscaleuptheiroutput,includingBrazil,ChinaandIndia.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|8

GlobalgastradegrowthtightenedinQ22024amidlowerLNGsupplyavailability

Estimatedyear-on-yearchangeinkeypipednaturalgastradeandglobalLNGsupplybyquarter,2023–2024

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

RussianpipedgastoEuropeOtherpipelineimportstoEuropePipelineimportstoChina

aGlobalLNGsupplyOTotaly-o-ychange

-30

2023Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2023Q4

2024Q2

2024Q1

IEA.CCBY4.0.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|9

NaturalgaspricesstrengthenedacrossallkeymarketsinQ22024

Evolutionofkeyregionalnaturalgaspricessince1January2024

50%40%30%20%10% 0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%

%changesince1January2024

02-Jan-24

13-Jan-24

24-Jan-24

TTF-EuropePlattsJKM-Asia

04-Feb-24

15-Feb-24

26-Feb-24

08-Mar-24

19-Mar-24

30-Mar-24

10-Apr-24

21-Apr-24

Henry

Hub-UnitedStates

02-May-24

13-May-24

24-May-24

04-Jun-24

15-Jun-24

26-Jun-24

IEA.CCBY4.0.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|10

Thesupplyoflow-emissionsgasesisexpectedtomorethandoubleby2027

Estimatedsupplyoflow-emissionsgasesbytype,Forecastsupplyoflow-emissionsgasesbytype,

in2023in2027

25bcm-eq

10bcm-eq

IEA.CCBY4.0.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|11

Gasmarketupdate

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Gasmarketupdate

GlobalgasdemandreturnedtomorepronouncedgrowthinH12024

Followingthecontractionin2022andagradualrebalancingin2023,

globalgasmarketsreturnedtomorepronouncedgrowthinH12024amidalowerpriceenvironmentandimprovingsupplyfundamentals.Around70%ofthisdemandgrowthwasconcentratedinQ1.TheslowingofLNGsupplygrowthinQ2providedupwardpressureongaspricesacrosskeyimportmarkets,whichinturnweighedongasdemandgrowthrates.

Preliminarydatasuggestthatnaturalgasdemandincreasedby3%(or50bcm)inH12024inthemarketscoveredbythisIEAgasmarketupdate.

1

Asiaaloneaccountedforaround60%ofincrementalgasdemand,primarilydrivenbythePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter“China”)andIndia.Demandgrowthwaslargelysupportedbyhighergasuseinindustry,contributingalmost65%ofthedemandgrowthinH12024.CombinedindustrialgasconsumptioninChina,Europe,IndiaandtheUnitedStates–accountingforaroundhalfoftheglobalamount–increasedbyanimpressive6%(ornear20bcm)y-o-y.Gas-to-powerdemandgrewbyamoremoderate2%y-o-y,asthestronggainsinNorthAmerica,thefast-growingAsianmarketsandEurasiawerepartiallyoffsetbylowergas-firedpowergenerationinEurope.Gasdemandintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsgrewbyamere1%y-o-yasanunseasonably

warmQ1weighedonspaceheatingrequirementsinEuropeandNorthAmerica.

InNorthAmericanaturalgasdemandrosebyanestimated2%(or10bcm)y-o-yinH12024.Whileresidentialandcommercial

demanddeclinedamidunseasonablymildweatherconditionsin

Q1,theselossesweremorethanoffsetbyrobustgrowthingas-

firedpowergenerationacrossallmarketsoftheregion.Facedwithmulti-decadelowgaspricesduringtheFebruary–Aprilperiod,USupstreamplayersoptimisedtheirdrygasoutputtobalancethe

market,whichledtoa1.5%y-o-ydeclineinUSgasproductioninQ22024.Lowerdrygasoutputcombinedwithstronggas-fired

powergenerationandhigherexportssupportedarecoveryin

naturalgaspricesinQ2.InCentralandSouthAmericagas

demandgrewbyanestimated3%y-o-y,supportedbyhighergasuseinthepowerandindustrialsectors.Thisrelativelystrong

demandgrowthincreasedtheregion’snetLNGimportsbycloseto25%(or1.3bcm)y-o-yinH12024.

NaturalgasdemandinAsiaincreasedbyanestimated8%y-o-y(orover30bcm)inH12024.Chinacontinuestodrivetheregion’sgasdemandgrowth,withthecountry’sgasconsumptionrisingby11%(or17bcm)y-o-yamidhighergasuseacrossallend-usesectors.LowernaturalgaspricescontinuedtostimulategasdemandinIndia,withgasuseinindustryrisingbyover20%y-o-yinthefirst

1AsiaPacific,CentralandSouthAmerica,Eurasia,EuropeandNorthAmerica.

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|12

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|13

fivemonthsof2024.Combinednaturalgasdemandincreasedbyanestimated3%y-o-yinJapanandKoreainthefirstfourmonthsof2024.

NaturalgasconsumptioninOECDEuropefellby3.5%(or9bcm)y-o-yinH12024.Thepowersectorremainedthemostimportantdriverbehindlowergasdemand,asthestrongexpansionofrenewablestogetherwithimprovingnuclearavailabilityreducedthecallongas-firedpowerplants.MildwinterweatherlimitedgasdemandintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsinQ1.Conversely,gasuseintheindustrialsectorcontinuedtorecover,supportedbythelowerpriceenvironment,albeitremainingwellbelowitspre-crisislevels.InEurasianaturalgasdemandrosebyanestimated5%y-o-yinH12024.Acolderwintersupportedhigherspaceheatingrequirements,whilelowernuclearavailabilityintheRussianFederation(hereafter“Russia”)increasedthecallongas-firedpowerplants.Russia’snaturalgasproductionincreasedbynear8%(or22bcm)y-o-yinthefirstfivemonthsof2024.Thisgrowthwaspartlydrivenbystrongerpipedgasexports,includingtoChina,EuropeandCentralAsia,aswellashigherLNGproductionandrisingdomesticdemand.NaturalgasproductiondisplayedvaryingpatternsinCentralAsia.FirstestimatesindicatethattheregionincreaseditspipedgasdeliveriestoChina,primarilydrivenbyhigheroutputinTurkmenistan.InAzerbaijansalesgasproductiongrewby4%(or0.6bcm)y-o-yinthefirstfivemonthsof2024,supportedbothbyhigherdomesticdemandandstrongerexports.

Globalgasdemandisforecasttogrowby2.5%(orjustover

100bcm)in2024.Weanticipategrowthtobecappedinimport

marketsbythelimitedincreaseinglobalLNGsupply,whichisexpectedtoexpandbyamere3%(or15bcm).Industryandenergyownuseisexpectedtoaccountforover55%ofincrementalgasdemandin2024.Thisispartlysupportedbycontinuedeconomicexpansioninfast-growingAsianmarkets,aswellasrecoveryinEurope’sindustrialgasdemand.Followinganunseasonablymildnorthernhemispherewinter,naturalgasdemandintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsisexpectedtoincreaseby2.4%in2024,assumingaverageweatherconditionsinQ4.Gas-to-powerdemandisforecasttoincreaseonlymarginally,ashighergasburninthefast-growingAsianmarkets,andthegas-richcountriesofAfrica,theMiddleEastandNorthAmerica,ispartiallyoffsetbytheprojecteddeclinesinEurope.

GasdemandintheAsiaPacificregionisexpectedtoexpandbycloseto5%in2024comparedwith2023andaccountfornearly45%ofincrementalgasdemand.GrowthinAsiaislargelysupportedbyindustrialactivityandhighergasuseinthepowersector.Gasdemandisforecasttoincreaseby1%inNorthAmericaandby2%inCentralandSouthAmerica.InEuropenaturalgasdemandisforecasttoremainbroadlyflat,standing20%belowits2021levels.WhileEurope’sgasuseinindustryandforspaceheatingisprojectedtorecover,gas-firedgenerationissettodeclinefurther.Combinedgasdemandinthegas-richmarketsofAfricaandtheMiddleEastisforecasttoincreaseby3%.Similarly,Eurasiangasdemandisprojectedtogrowby3%amidhigherdemandinindustryandtheresidentialandcommercialsectors.

GasMarketReport,Q4-2023

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|14

Asiaaccountedforaround60%ofincrementalgasdemandinH12024

Estimatedy-o-ychangeinnaturalgasdemandinkeyregions,H12024vsH12023

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Y-o-ychangein%

8%

4%

0%

-4%

-30

Asia*

aResidentialandcommercialaPower

NorthAmericaEurasia

aIndustryoY-o-ychange-8%

EuropeCentralandSouth

America

IEA.CCBY4.0.

*Bangladesh,China,India,Indonesia,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Pakistan,Philippines,SingaporeandThailand.

GasMarketReport,Q4-2023

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|15

Stronggrowthinindustrydrivesincrementalgasdemandin2024

Forecastchangeinnaturalgasconsumptionbyregionandsector,2024vs2023

World

AsiaPacific

Eurasia

MiddleEast

NorthAmerica

Africa

CentralandSouthAmericaEurope

Residentialandcommercial

Power

Industry

OthersectorsNetchange

-20020406080100bcm

IEA.CCBY4.0.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|16

NorthAmericangasdemandincreasedbyanestimated2%inthefirsthalfof2024…

NaturalgasconsumptioninNorthAmericarosebyanestimated2%(or10bcm)y-o-yinthefirsthalfof2024.WhileresidentialandcommercialdemandcontinuedtodeclineamidunseasonablymildweatherconditionsinQ1bothinCanadaandtheUnitedStates,

theselossesweremorethanoffsetbyrobustgrowthingas-firedpowergenerationacrossallmarketsoftheregion.

IntheUnitedStatesnaturalgasconsumptionincreasedbyan

estimated1.5%(or7bcm)y-o-yinH12024,withgrowthprimarilydrivenbythepowersector.Naturalgasdemandintheresidential

andcommercialsectorsfellbyaround2.5%(or3bcm)y-o-yduringthesameperiod.WhileStormHeatherboostedspaceheating

demandinJanuary,milderweatherconditionsduringFebruary-Maymoderatedgasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectors.

Overall,heatingdegreedaysweredownby2%y-o-yduringthefirstfivemonthsof2024,whichnaturallyweighedonspaceheating

requirements.Inaddition,heatingintensityintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsmarginallydeclined,whichsuggeststhatnon-weatherrelatedfactors(includingenergyefficiencyand

electrificationofheat)mighthavealsocontributedtothelowergasuseinbuildings.

Incontrast,gasburninthepowersectorcontinueditsrobust

expansionandroseby6%(or9bcm)y-o-yinH12024.Thisstronggrowthwasprimarilysupportedbyhigherelectricityconsumption,whichgrewbyanestimated4%y-o-y.Highercoolingdegreedays

contributedtostrongerelectricitydemand,especiallyduringtheMay-Juneperiod.Thecontinuedincreaseingas-firedpower

generationprovidedupwardpressureongasprices,withHenryHubaveraging17%aboveits2023levelsinJune.Naturalgas

demandinindustryincreasedbyanestimated0.5%(or0.6bcm)y-o-yinH12024,albeitremainingbelowits2022levels.

InCanadanaturalgasconsumptionincreasedbyanestimated4%

(or3bcm)y-o-yinH12024.SimilarlytotheUnitedStates,

unseasonablymildweatherconditionsweighedongasuseinthe

residentialandcommercialsectors,whichdeclinedby10%y-o-yinthefirstfourmonthsof2024.Combinedgasdemandinthe

industrialandpowersectorsrosebyastrong12%y-o-yduringthesameperiod,largelysupportedbystrongergas-firedgenerationattheexpenseofcoal-firedpoweroutput.InMexiconaturalgas

consumptiongrewbyanestimated2%(or1bcm)y-o-yinH12024,amidthecontinuedexpansionofgas-firedpowergeneration.HighergasdemandinMexicosupportedstrongerpipedgasimportsfromtheUnitedStates(upbyalmost10%y-o-yinH12024).

FollowingamildQ1,naturalgasdemandinNorthAmericais

forecasttoincreaseby1%in2024.Thepowersectorisexpectedtodrivethisgrowth,amidhigherelectricitydemand.Gasdemandinindustryisexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatamidaweakmacro-

economicenvironment.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|17

…primarilyfuelledbystronggasburnintheUSpowersector

Estimatedy-o-ychangeinsemi-annualnaturalgasdemand,UnitedStates,2021-2024

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2020H1

2021H1

2021H2

2022H2

2020H2

2023H1

2022H1

2024H1

2023H2

Y-o-ychangein%

8%

4%

0%

-4%

-8%

ResidentialandcommercialPowerIndustryOthersY-o-ychange

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonEIA(2024),

NaturalGasConsumption;

NaturalGasWeeklyUpdate.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|18

Stronggas-firedpowergenerationdrivesdemandgrowthinCentralandSouthAmerica…

Followingadeclineof1%in2022,naturalgasconsumptionin

CentralandSouthAmericaremainedbroadlyflatin2023.

PreliminarydataforH12024indicatethattheregion’snaturalgasconsumptionincreasedby3%y-o-y,primarilysupportedbyhighergasuseinthepowerandindustrialsectors.Thisrelativelystrongdemandgrowthincreasedtheregion’snetLNGimportsbyaround25%(or1.3bcm)y-o-yinthefirsthalfof2024.

InArgentina–theregion’slargestgasmarket–naturalgas

consumptionincreasedby5.5%(or0.65bcm)y-o-yinthefirst

fourmonthsof2024,primarilysupportedbystrongergasburninthepowersector.Naturalgasuseinindustryfellby2%(or0.1bcm)y-o-y.Incontrast,gas-to-powerdemandincreasedbyastrong13%(or0.6bcm),whilenaturalgasconsumptionintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsroseby7.5%(or0.15bcm)y-o-yinthefirst

fourmonthsof2024.Highernaturalgasdemandwasmetbytherobustgrowthinthecountry’sshalegasproduction,which

increasedby17%(or1.4bcm)y-o-yinthefirstfivemonthsoftheyear,primarilydrivenbyhigheroutputfromtheVacaMuerta

deposits.Incontrast,naturalgasoutputfromconventionalfieldscontinuedtodeclineanddroppedby11%(or1bcm)y-o-yduringthesameperiodof2024.

NaturalgasconsumptioninBrazilincreasedbyanestimated2%(or0.3bcm)inthefirsthalfof2024.Sizzlingheatwavesincreasedcoolingdemand,whichinturnsupportedastrongincreasein

electricityconsumption,upbyanestimated6%y-o-yinH12024.Thisstrongdemandgrowthwasonlypartlymetbyhigherhydro,windandsolarpoweroutput,withtheremaininggapbridgedby

gas-firedpowerplants.Gas-to-powerdemandsurgedbyan

estimated6%y-o-yinH12024.Inthewakeofstrongergas

demand,Brazil’sLNGinflowsalmosttripledcomparedtoH12023,risingtonear1.5bcm.Incontrast,pipedgasimportsfromBoliviadroppedby4%(or0.1bcm)y-o-y.

InTrinidadandTobagonaturalgasconsumptionrosebyan

estimated1%y-o-yinQ12024,whileinVenezuelaobserved

naturalgasconsumptiongrewby13%(or0.65bcm)y-o-yinthefirstfourmonthsof2024.InColombianaturalgasconsumptionroseby17%(or0.8bcm)y-o-yinH12024,almostentirelydrivenbythepowersector.Lowerhydroavailabilityandsizzling

heatwavesledtoasurgeingas-to-powerdemand,whichincreasedbyanimpressive97%(or0.8bcm).Colombia’sLNGimports

increasedmorethanfivefoldcomparedwithH12023.NaturalgasusecontinuedtoexpandinCentralAmericaandthemarketsoftheCaribbeanSea.TheircombinedLNGimportsrosebymorethan6%y-o-yinH12024.

ThisforecastexpectsnaturalgasdemandinCentralandSouth

Americatoincreaseby2%in2024.Ahotanddrysummer

supportingstrongergas-firedpowergenerationandhigherusageintheindustrialsectorareexpectedtosupportgasdemandgrowth.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|19

…withtheregion’sgasconsumptionrisingbyanestimated3%inH12024

Y-o-ychangeinquarterlynaturalgasdemand,CentralandSouthAmerica,Q12023-Q22024

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

2

1

0

-1

-2

2023Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2023Q4

2024Q1

2024Q2

Y-o-ychangein%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

aArgentinaaBrazilaColombiaaOthersaTotaloY-o-ychange

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonANP(2024),

BoletimMensaldaProduçãodePetróleoeGásNatural;

BMC(2024),

InformesMensuale

s;CentralBankofTrinidadandTobago(2024),

Statistics;

CNE(2024),

GeneraciónbrutaSEN;

ENARGAS(2024),

DatosAbiertos;

ICIS(2024),

ICISLNGEdge;

IEA(2024),MonthlyGasDataService;

JODI(2024),

GasDatabase;

MME(2024),

BoletimMensaldeAcompanhamentodaIndustriadeGásNatural;

OSINERG(2024),

Reportediariodelaoperacióndelossistemasde

transportedegasnatural.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|20

Asia’snaturalgasdemandgrewbyanestimated8%inH12024

Followingthecontractionin2022,Asia’snaturalgasdemand

returnedtogrowthin2023.ThistrendcontinuedintoH12024,withpreliminarydatasuggestingthattheregion’snaturalgas

consumptionrosebyanimpressive8%(orover30bcm)y-o-yandaccountedforaround60%ofgloba