摩根大通-全球央行跟踪0722

1

CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612carlton.m.strong@JPMorganChaseBankNA

JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@

MaiaGCrook(1-212)622-8435maia.crook@

BennettParrish(1-212)622-9003bennett.parrish@

NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

19July2024

GlobalCentralBankWatch

Officialrate

Currentrate(%pa)

LastchangeNextmtg

Forecastnextchange

Forecast(%pa)

Sep24Dec24Mar25

Jun25Sep25

Global

5.06

48

-64

4.93

4.42

4.69

4.13

3.87

excludingUS4.8869-594.804.574.293.983.71

Developed

4.48

4.07

3.82

3.53

3.25

4.27

-65

7

Emerging5.89105-625.865.595.274.984.75

LatinAmerica

10.13

-207

-67

9.89

9.65

9.46

9.30

9.07

EMEAEM17.26870-26417.5916.2914.6213.3112.01

EMAsia

2.88

-2

-20

2.81

2.74

2.68

2.58

2.57

TheAmericas6.07-9-765.825.575.315.064.83

UnitedStates

Fedfunds

5.50

25

-75

26Jul23(+25bp)

31Jul24

Sep24(-25bp)

5.25

5.00

4.75

4.50

4.25

CanadaO/Nrate4.75-25-1005Jun24(-25bp)24Jul24Sep24(-25bp)4.504.253.753.253.25

Brazil

SELICO/N

10.50

-325

0

8May24(-25bp)

31Jul24

Onhold

10.50

10.50

10.50

10.50

10.50

MexicoReporate11.0015-7521Mar24(-25bp)8Aug24Aug24(-25bp)10.7510.5010.2510.009.50

ChileDiscrate5.75-550-2518Jun24(-25bp)31Jul2417Dec24(-25bp)5.755.505.505.255.00

ColombiaReporate11.25-200-40028Jun24(-50bp)31Jul2431Jul24(-50bp)9.758.257.256.756.25

Peru

Reference

5.75

-200

-125

9May24(-25bp)

8Aug24

8Aug24(-25bp)

5.25

5.00

4.50

4.25

4.25

Europe/Africa7.11222-1196.996.505.915.264.62

Euroarea

Deporate

3.75

25

-75

6Jun24(-25bp)

12Sep24

Sep24(-25bp)

3.50

3.25

3.00

2.50

2.00

UnitedKingdomBankrate5.2525-753Aug23(+25bp)1Aug24Aug24(-25bp)5.004.754.504.254.00

Norway

Deprate

4.50

75

-50

14Dec23(+25bp)15Aug24

19Dec24(-25bp)

4.50

4.25

4.00

3.50

3.25

SwedenReporate3.750-1258May24(-25bp)20Aug2420Aug24(-25bp)3.253.002.502.252.00

CzechRepublic

2-wkrepo

4.75

-225

-75

27Jun24(-50bp)

1Aug24

Aug24(-25bp)

4.25

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

HungaryBaserate7.00-600-10018Jun24(-25bp)23Jul24Jul24(-25bp)6.256.256.005.505.00

Israel

Baserate

4.50

-25

-50

1Jan24(-25bp)

28Aug24

Nov24(-25bp)

4.50

4.25

4.00

4.00

4.00

Poland7-dayinterv5.75-10006Sep23(-75bp)4Sep24May25(-25bp)5.755.755.755.505.25

Romania

Baserate

6.75

-25

-25

5Jul24(-25bp)

7Aug24

8Nov24(-25bp)

6.75

6.50

6.50

6.25

5.75

RussiaKeypolrate16.00850-20015Dec23(+100bp)26Jul24Jul24(+100bp)17.0016.0014.0013.0012.00

SouthAfrica

Reporate

8.25

0

-75

25May23(+50bp)19Sep24

Sep24(-25bp)

8.00

7.75

7.50

7.25

7.25

Turkey

1-wkrepo

50.00

3500

-1000

21Mar24(+500bp)23Jul2421Nov24(-250bp)50.00

45.00

40.00

35.00

30.00

Asia/Pacific

2.62

1

-13

2.58

2.55

2.49

2.42

2.40

Australia

Cashrate

4.35

25

-25

7Nov23(+25bp)

6Aug24

Feb25(-25bp)

4.35

4.10

4.35

3.85

3.60

NewZealandCashrate5.500-10024May23(+50bp)14Aug24Aug24(-25bp)5.254.754.504.003.75

JapanPolrateIOER10.10124019Mar24(+20bp)31Jul243Q24(+15bp)0.250.500.500.750.75

HongKongDisc.wndw5.75-550-7526Jul23(+25bp)-Sep24(-25bp)5.505.255.004.754.50

China

7-dayrevrepo

1.80

-10

-10

15Aug23(-15bp)

-

3Q24(-10bp)

1.70

1.70

1.70

1.60

1.60

KoreaBaserate3.500-2513Jan23(+25bp)22Aug244Q24(-25bp)3.503.253.253.003.00

IndonesiaBIRRR6.2550-5024Apr24(+25bp)21Aug244Q24(-25bp)6.256.005.755.755.75

IndiaReporate26.500-508Feb23(+25bp)8Aug24Dec24(-25bp)6.506.256.006.006.00

MalaysiaO/Nrate3.00-30003May23(+25bp)5Sep24Onhold3.003.003.003.003.00

PhilippinesRevrepo6.5025-7526Oct23(+25bp)15Aug244Q24(-25bp)6.506.005.755.004.75

Thailand

1-dayrepo

2.50

50

-25

27Sep23(+25bp)21Aug24

1Q25(-25bp)

2.50

2.50

2.25

2.00

2.00

TaiwanOfficialdisc.2.0013021Mar24(+12.5bp)19Sep24Onhold2.002.002.002.002.00

Source:J.P.Morgan.1BoJsetsthepolicyrateonIOER(O/N)andtargets10-yearJGByieldsaspolicyguidanceBolddenotesmovesincelastGDWandforecastchanges.Underlinedenotespolicymeetingduringupcomingweek.AggregatesareGDP-weightedaverages.

Anylong-formnomenclatureforreferencestoChina;HongKong;andTaiwanwithinthisresearchmaterialisMainlandChina;HongKongSAR(China)andTaiwan(China).

2

CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612carlton.m.strong@JPMorganChaseBankNA

JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@

MaiaGCrook(1-212)622-8435maia.crook@

BennettParrish(1-212)622-9003bennett.parrish@

NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

GlobalCentralBankWatch

19July2024

Realpolicyrates

Figure3:Realpolicyrateandneutral:forecastfor4Q24

%p.a.less%oyacoreCPI

NLPofcentralbankspeak

•ECB’sLagarde(HDS:+15,trailing5-speechavg:+21)

•ECBstatement(HDS:+31,trailing5-speechavg:+8)

•Fed’sWaller(HDS:-5,trailing5-speechavg:+7)

7.55.53.51.5-0.5-2.5

mex

bra

tur

col

phl

zaf

idn

ind

usa

can

cze

pol

uk

kor

chn

tha

nor

swe

chl

aus

emu

mys

twn

jpn

Table1:Hawk-DoveScores

3mmovavg;-100(Dovish)to+100(Hawkish)

Changeoverperiod

Current1m3m6m

Source:J.P.MorganGlobalEconomics.USusescorePCEforecast.

J.P.Morganforecastsvs.marketTable2:PolicyRate:J.P.MorganandMarket

Source:J.P.Morgan

ForaprimeronourNLPmodel,seemethodologyreport.

J.P.Morganforecastsevolution

Figure1:J.P.Morganpolicyrateforecastrevisionindex,DM

Bp;cum.rollingrevisionover12monthstoyear-aheadrateforecast

125

100

75

50

25

0

-25

-50

-75

-100

US

Japan

Euroarea

UK

Jul23Oct23Jan24Apr24Jul24

Source:J.P.MorganGlobalEconomics

Figure2:J.P.Morganpolicyrateforecastrevisionindex,EM

Bp;cum.rollingrevisionover12monthstoyear-aheadrateforecast;bothscales

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-LowyieldHighyield-

exChina

China

450

300

150

0

-150

-300

Realrateforecast(currentpolicyratelessCPIforecast)Neutral

FRB

14.0

-1.6

-0.2

1.7

ECB

6.6

0.7

5.6

-8.7

BoE

17.8

10.4

5.6

-10.5

BoJ

-9.3

0.7

3.7

-5.5

RBA

23.1

4.1

6.1

-2.2

BoC

-2.7

-3.6

-15.8

-30.4

NorgesBank

27.2

0.0

3.7

2.4

Riksbank

15.1

0.4

5.8

-2.4

Current%pa

Basispointchangefromcurrent

End3Q24

End4Q24

End2Q25

End4Q25

JPMJPM-Mkt

JPMJPM-Mkt

JPMJPM-Mkt

JPMJPM-Mkt

Global

5.02

-14

-18

-38

-11

-96

-9

-137

-19

Developed

4.48

-20

0

-41

8

-94

11

-135

2

US

5.50

-25

-1

-50

14

-100

36

-150

26

EMU

3.75

-25

-4

-50

-3

-125

-28

-175

-48

Japan

0.10

15

5

40

19

65

32

90

46

UK

5.25

-25

-7

-50

-4

-100

-2

-150

-17

Norway

4.50

0

17

-25

-19

-100

-14

-150

-27

Sweden

3.75

-50

-7

-75

2

-150

-25

-175

-19

Canada

4.75

-25

17

-50

21

-150

-27

-150

7

Australia

4.35

0

-8

0

-3

-49

-24

-99

-48

NewZealand

5.50

-25

-4

-75

-11

-150

1

-200

-10

Emerging

5.89

-2

-42

-30

-38

-90

-40

-124

-46

EMLowYield

2.48

-9

14

-13

17

-29

11

-36

-2

EMHighYield

12.92

10

-215

-64

-203

-217

-190

-306

-176

EMAsia

1.95

-8

-8

-10

-5

-21

-8

-23

-16

China

1.80

-10

-10

-10

-7

-19

-9

-19

-16

HongKong

5.75

-25

--

-50

--

-100

--

-150

--

India

6.50

0

5

-25

-14

-50

-19

-50

7

Indonesia

6.25

0

--

-25

--

-50

--

-50

--

Korea

3.50

0

14

-25

19

-50

7

-75

-18

Malaysia

3.00

0

7

0

14

0

11

0

5

Philippines

6.50

0

--

-50

--

-150

--

-225

--

TaiwanThailand

EMEAEM

CzechiaIsrael

Poland

2.002.5018.604.754.505.75

0

0

36

-50

0

0

-6

5

-368

-4

13

-2

0

0

-15

50

-318

9

4

9

0

-50

-17

-8

-274

51

7

50

0

-50

-17

-37

-280

24

27

-22

-103

-430

-623

-75

-25

0

-75

-50

-25

-75

-50

-75

Romania

6.75

0

--

-25

--

-50

--

-125

--

Russia

SouthAfrica

Turkey

LATAM

Brazil

Chile

ColombiaMexico

16.008.2550.00

10.13

10.505.7511.2511.00

100

-25

0

-23

0

0

-150

-25

-605

3

-12

-41

-19

27

-70

-2

0

-50

-500

-47

0

-25

-300

-50

-602

6

174

-57

-50

32

-112

4

-300

-100

-1500

-82

0

-50

-450

-100

-638

-5

357

-81

-95

35

-156

16

-500

-100

-2000

-124

0

-100

-500

-200

-634

1

351

-95

-100

0

-183

-11

Peru

5.75

-50

--

-75

--

-150

--

-150

--

--indicatesmarket-basedpolicyrateforecastisunavailable.Market-basedforecastdataarelagged1-2days.

FRIisForecastRevisionIndex,thebpcumulativerevisiontorollingyear-aheadpolicyrateforecastRealratedefinedaspolicyrateless%oyacoreinflation.

Source:J.P.MorganGlobalEconomics.Thelong-formnomenclatureforChina,HongKong,andTaiwanisMainlandChina,HongKongSAR(China),andTaiwan(China).

Jul23Oct23Jan24Apr24Jul24

Source:J.P.MorganGlobalEconomics

Foradditionaldetail,seeourfullpolicyrateQEDreport.

3

CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612carlton.m.strong@JPMorganChaseBankNA

JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@

MaiaGCrook(1-212)622-8435maia.crook@

BennettParrish(1-212)622-9003bennett.parrish@

NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

19July2024

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4

CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612carlton.m.strong@JPMorganChaseBankNA

JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@

MaiaGCrook(1-212)622-8435maia.crook@

BennettParrish(1-212)622-9003bennett.parrish@

NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

GlobalCentralBankWatch

19July2024

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Indonesia:PTJ.P.MorganSekuritasIndonesiaisamemberoftheIndonesiaStockExchangeandisregisteredandsupervisedbytheOtoritasJasaKeuangan(OJK).Korea:J.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranch,isamemberoftheKoreaExchange(KRX).JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SeoulBranch,islicensedasabranchofficeofforeignbank(JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.)inKorea.Bothentitiesare

regulatedbytheFinancialServicesCommission(FSC)andtheFinancialSupervisoryService(FSS).Fornon-macroresearchmaterial,the

materialisdistributedinKoreabyorthroughJ.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranch.Japan:JPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.andJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,TokyoBranchareregulatedbytheFinancialServicesAgencyinJapan.Malaysia:ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedinMalaysiabyJPMorganSecurities(Malaysia)SdnBhd(18146-X),whichisaParticipatingOrganizationofBursaMalaysia

BerhadandholdsaCapitalMarketsServicesLicenseissuedbytheSecuritiesCommissioninMalaysia.Mexico:J.P.MorganCasadeBolsa,

S.A.deC.V.andJ.P.MorganGrupoFinancieroaremembersoftheMexicanStockExchangeandareauthorizedtoactasabrokerdealerbytheNationalBankingandSecuritiesExchangeCommission.NewZealand:ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedbyJPMSALinNewZealand

onlyto"wholesaleclients"(asdefinedintheFinancialMarketsConductAct2013).JPMSALisregisteredasaFinancialServiceProviderundertheFinancialServiceproviders(RegistrationandDisputeResolution)Actof2008.Philippines:J.P.MorganSecuritiesPhilippinesInc.isa

TradingParticipantofthePhilippineStockExchangeandamemberoftheSecuritiesClearingCorporationofthePhilippinesandtheSecuritiesInvestorProtectionFund.ItisregulatedbytheSecuritiesandExchangeCommission.Singapore:Thismaterialisissuedanddistributedin

SingaporebyorthroughJ.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimited(JPMSS)[MCI(P)030/08/2023andCo.Reg.No.:199405335R],whichisamemberoftheSingaporeExchangeSecuritiesTradingLimited,and/orJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,Singaporebranch(JPMCBSingapore),bothofwhichareregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore.ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedinSingaporeonlytoaccreditedinvestors,expertinvestorsandinstitutionalinvestors,asdefinedinSection4AoftheSecuritiesandFuturesAct,Cap.289(SFA).Thismaterial