匈牙利农业国际竞争力-现状和规划【外文翻译】

外文翻译原文THEINTERNATIONALCOMPETITIVENESSOFHUNGARIANAGRCULTURE:PASTPERFORMANCEANDFUTUREPROJECTIONSMaterialSource:Post-CommunistEconomies,2006(16).Author:MatthewGortona,SophiaDavidovab,MartinBansec,AlistairBaileyd1.Methodology:DomesticResourceCost(DRCs)RatiosWhilethereisalackofconsensusonhow,orifatall,internationalcompetitivenessshouldbemeasured,inpracticetheDRCratiohasbeenwidelyapplied(Tsakok,1990).TheestimationofDRCshasbeenperceivedasusefulincomparingthecompetitivenessofunlikeproductionsystemsandassessingthecomparativeadvantageofalternativeactivities(MonkeandPearson,1989).TheDRCapproachhaspreviouslybeenemployedinassessingtheinternationalcompetitivenessofHungarianagriculture,forthemid-1990s,byBanseetal.(1999)andbyemployingthesamemeasureasthelatterauthorsitispossibletoanalysechangesthatoccurredduringthepre-accessionperiod. ThemainweaknessoftheDRCmeasurehasbeenperceivedtobeitsstaticnaturewhichfailstocapturemarketdynamics(Tsakok,1990).ThisproblemisnotuniquetotheDRCmethodandissharedbymostcost-benefitanalysis.Oneapproachtodealingwiththisweaknessistoconductsensitivityanalysisbyassessingthesensitivityoftheestimatesatvaryingpricesandquantitiesofinputsandoutputs(KannapiranandFleming,1999).2.DRCsEstimatesfor2000to2002Foreachofthearablecrops,corporateenterprisesaremoreinternationallycompetitivethanindividualfarms(asindicatedbylowerDRCratios).Onesubstantialdifferencebetweenindividualandcorporatefarmsistheamountofnon-tradablecostspertonne.Forexample,forwheatproducedbyindividualfarmsin2001,theaveragecostofnon-tradablespertonnewas14,705HUF(€57.3).Thecorrespondingfigureforcorporatefarmswas12,377HUF(€48.73).Differencesinlabourinput,measuredintermsofitsopportunitycost,accountprincipallyforthehigherproportionofnon-tradablecostsonindividualfarms.Sunflowerproductionbycorporatefarmswasinternationallycompetitivein2000and2001andaboutone-thirdofHungary'stotalsunflowercropisexported.Onecompany(CereolRt.)dominatescommercialoilseedprocessingandNemes(2003)reportsthatin2002,Cereoloffereddomesticproducers€277.7pertonne,whiletheaveragef.o.b.exportparitypricewas€206.5(in2001,€241.2pertonnef.o.b.price).Withthedropininternationalprices,exportsfellsignificantly,particularlyasforperiod2000-2002exportsofoilseedsandvegetableoilwerenotsubsidisedbythestate.Hungary'smainmarketsareRussia,Belarus,Poland,BosniaandSlovenia.Hungarianpotatoproductionwasnotcompetitiveinanyoftheyearsstudied.Theareaunderpotatocultivationhasdeclinedsignificantlysincetheearly1990s(in1995nearly70,000hawereplantedcomparedwith34,500hain2002).ProductionisnowconcentratedintheGreatPlainbuteventheretheareaassignedtopotatoesissmallcomparedtoothercrops.Post-accession,itisexpectedthatdomesticproductionwillfurtherdeclineduetosubstitutionbyimportsfromPoland.Hungariantradeinsugarandsugarbeetisquitethinwiththedomesticmarkethighlyregulated.Twotothreecompaniesdominatethesugarindustrywiththevastmajorityofgrowersoperatingoncontractswiththeselargeplayers.Averagesugarbeetyieldsarearound40tperhectare,whichisonaparwiththeCzechRepublicbutlowbyUKandGermanstandards(ZimmermannandZeddies,2002).TheDRCcalculationsindicatethatcorporatefarmproductionwasinternationallycompetitivein2001and2002butgiventhenatureofthemarket,substantialchangesintheareadevotedtosugarbeetarenotexpectedintheshorttomediumterm.Incontrasttoarableproduction,Hungarianlivestockfarmingwasnotinternationallycompetitiveduringtheearlytomid-1990sandBanseetal.(1999)reportedDRCratiosformilkandporkwhichwereconsiderablyabove1.Duringthe2000-2002period,milkproductiononbothcorporateandindividualfarmscontinuedtobeinternationallyuncompetitive.Whiletheproductivityofmilkproductionisnotparticularlylow,asevidencedbytheinput-outputcoefficientsintheCGEmodel,Hungarydependsonhightradesupport(domesticquotas,highimporttariffsandpriorto2001exportsubsidies)tomaintainitsstatusasanetexporter.Theunitvaluesofexportsarelow:togiveanindicationofscale,theadjustedf.o.b.bordervalueofthemilkproducedbyindividualfarmsin2001was64HUF(€0.26)perlitre,comparedtotradableandnon-tradablecostsof35and50HUF(€0.13and€0.19)perlitrerespectively.Themainnon-tradablecostistheopportunitycostoflabourinput.Thislabourinputonindividualfarmsisnon-salaried(ownorfamily)andthusthereisalargedifferencebetweenpaidcostsandtheDRCcalculationswhichaccountfortheopportunitycostsoflandandlabour.Hungary’sunfavourableinternationalposition,particularlycomparedwithSlovakia,inmilkproductionhasbeennotedelsewhere(Udovecz,2001).However,whilemilkcontinuedtobeuncompetitive,chickenproducerswitnessedanimprovementinfortunesduringthe2000to2002periodastheindustryrecoveredfromtheRussiancrisisanddomesticdemandforpoultryexpanded.GermanyandAustriaarecurrentlyHungary'smostimportantexportmarketswithsalestothesetwocountriesrisingsignificantlyaftertheJuly2001agreementwiththeEUtoopenupmarkets.Theindustrybenefitedfromthebumperharvestsin2001and2002:inthe2002marketingyear,feedcostswere10percentlowerthanin2001.Duringthesameperiod,outputalsorose.However,theadoptionofEUregulationsgoverninghygieneandanimalwelfarewillincreasecostsofproduction(Keszietal.2003)andthusdecreasecostcompetitiveness.Inporkproduction,thereremainsalargedividebetweentheinternationalcompetitivenessofindividualandcorporatefarms.Thecompetitivenessofindividualfarmproductiondeterioratedbetween2000and2002asaresultoftheappreciationoftheHUF.Exportershavedependedonstatesubsidies(about20-25percentoftotalHungarianproductionisexported).Exportsubsidiesintheperiod2000to2002forporkrangedfrom27to90HUF(€0.09to€0.39)perkgdependentonthetypeofmeat.Futureproductionisexpectedtoshrinkdramatically,asdomesticsupportswerewithdrawnafteraccessiontotheEU.3. DRCsProjectionsfor2007and2013In2002,onlytheweightedaverageDRCsforsugarbeetandchickenwerebelow1andunderthebaselinescenario(non-accession)whenonlypriceeffectsareconsideredthisdoesnotchangeineither2007or2013.Whilethepriceeffects,principallygrowthinfactorcosts(landandlabour),haveanegativeimpactoncompetitiveness,historicratesofproductivity,ifmaintained,aresufficienttooffsettheadverseeffectofthepricechanges.Forexample,theDRCratioforwheatin2002was1.23butthisfallsto1.0and0.87inyears2007and2013respectivelywhenbothpriceandproductivityeffectsaretakenintoconsiderationinthebaselinescenario.Asimilarpictureisevidentforallothercommoditiesapartfrommilk.Priceeffectsarelargerundertheaccessionscenariothaninthebaselinecase,particularlytherisesinlandandlabourcosts.

Thesepriceeffectshaveasignificantlynegativeimpactoninternationalcompetitiveness:forexample,theDRCratiosforwheatandporkrisefrom1.23and1.38in2002to1.69and1.8in2007and1.94and2.26in2013respectivelywhenonlythepriceeffectsareconsidered.Moreover,whileforthebaselinecase,historiclevelsofproductivitychangewouldbesufficienttooffsetthepriceeffects,thisisnotsoundertheaccessionscenarioforarablecrops.Forexample,theDRCratiosforwheatandmaizein2007areestimatedtobe1.32and1.2respectivelywhenbothpriceandhistoriclevelsofproductivitychangeareconsidered,comparedagainstratiosfor2002of1.23and1.15respectively.Inotherwords,toimproveinternationalcompetitivenessinarableproductionHungarywillhavetoachieveproductivityimprovementsthatareabovehistoriclevelstooffsettheadversepriceeffectsofaccession.Forporkandchicken,historiclevelsofproductivitychangearesufficienttooffsettheadversepriceeffectsofaccessionbecausethemainincreasedcostsassociatedwithaccessionisland,whichaccountsforalowerproportionoftotalcostsfortheseproducts.

However,thesecalculationsdonotaccountforthecostsofanyadditionalinvestmentsthatmayberequiredtomeettherequirementsofEUanimalwelfareandotherlegislation.IfHungaryfollowsSpainandPortugalandbenefitsfromasubstantialriseinproductivitypost-accession,ashypothesisedinthethirdpolicyscenario,internationalcompetitivenesswouldimproveconsiderably.Underthisscenario,theDRCratiosforallcommoditiesarepredictedtobelow1in2007and2013exceptmilk,andpotatoesin2007.By2013,theratiosforwheat,maizeandsunflowerseedsareallpredictedtobesubstantiallybelow1.Ifenhancedproductivitygrowthisachieved,Hungarywillrecaptureorimproveonitscompetitivepositionofthemid-1990s.First,accessionhasamoreadverseeffectontheinternationalcompetitivenessofcropsproducedbyindividualfarmsthancorporateenterprises.Thisisbecausecorporatefarmsusefewerunitsofnon-tradedfactorsofproductionperunitoftradablecoststhanindividualfarms.Themainpriceeffectofaccessionisonland,andtoalesserextent,labour,whicharefarlargerthanchangesinthesocialpricesofoutputsandtradableinputs.Forexample,theDRCratiosforwheatin2007undertheaccessionscenariowithhistoricratesofproductivitychangeareforecasttobe1.72and1.22forindividualandcorporatefarmsrespectively,incontrasttocomparableratiosfor2002of1.51and1.16respectively.Second,withoutenhancedproductivitygrowth,mostoftheoutputofindividualfarmswillremainuncompetitive.Ifunderaccessiononlyhistoricgrowthratesinproductivityareachieved,theninboth2007and2013onlychickenproductionwouldbeinternationallycompetitive.Pork,inparticular,wouldremaindeeplyuncompetitiveandtheratiosforallthecropsareabove1.Incontrast,evenifonlyhistoricratesofproductivitygrowthwereachievedunderaccessionbycorporatefarms,theninadditiontochicken,sunflower,sugarbeetandmaizeproductionwouldbeinternationallycompetitivein2013.Theratioforwheat(1.09)suggests,givenitsclosenessto1,thatthemostefficientcorporatefarmproducingthiscommoditywouldalsobeinternationallycompetitive.Forbothindividualandcorporatefarms,historicratesofproductivitygrowthareinsufficienttoimprovethecompetitivenessofHungarianmilkproduction.4. ConclusionsThispaperanalysesthesocialprofitabilityandinternationalcompetitivenessofHungarianagricultureinthepre-accessionperiodandpresentsaseriesofprojectionsfortheyears2007and2013.Incombininganalysisfortheyears2000to2002,withtheresultsoftheCGEmodelanddifferentassumptionsonproductivitychange,anattempthasbeenmadetodealwiththemostcommoncriticismoftheDRCapproach,thatitisastaticconcept,andassesstheimpactofdynamicchangesinpricesandproductivity.Theanalysisindicatesthatduringtheperiod2000to2002Hungarianinternationalcompetitivenessincropsdeclinedasaresultofappreciationoftheforint,staticdomesticdemandandfallingexportpricesasoutputinotherCEECsrose.Whilelivestockproducersbenefitedfromlowerfeedcosts,milkand,toalesserextent,porkproductionremaineduncompetitive.Thegapininternationalcompetitivenessbetweenindividualandcorporatefarms,apparentinthemid-1990s,haspersisted.译文匈牙利农业国际竞争力:现状和规划资料来源:Post-CommunistEconomies,2006(16).作者：MatthewGortona,SophiaDavidovab,MartinBansec,AlistairBaileyd1.方法论：国内资源成本（DRCs）的比率虽然是一个缺乏共识的结论，在所有的衡量国际竞争力的实践中，DRCs的比例得到了广泛应用（Tsakok，1990）。DRCs评估被理解为在比较有用的不同生产系统的竞争力和评估（MonkeandPearson,1989）的替代比较优势。DRCs法以前就已经被用于评估匈牙利农业国际竞争力，90年代中期，由Banse（1999年）等作家，因为后者采用同样的措施是对有可能的变化进行分析，在加入前期间发生的。

DRCs的措施主要弱点时因为它的其静态性质，未能捕捉市场动态（Tsakok，1990）。这个问题是不是DRCs法特有的，DRCs是由最符合成本效益分析来处理这个弱点进行了评估在不同的价格，投入和产出（Kannapiran和弗莱明，1999年）的数量估算的灵敏度分析。

2.从2000至2002年的DRCs评估

对于农作物的耕地，每个企业比个体农场（由低金比率表示）更具有国际竞争力。个人和公司之间的一个农场的本质区别是每吨非流通费。例如，对于个别农场在2001年生产的小麦，非贸易品每吨平均成本为14705福林（€57.3）。对企业农场的相应数字是12377福林（€48.73）。在劳动力投入的差异，其机会成本来衡量，主要考虑为对个体农场非流通成本高的比例。

向日葵农场生产的企业国际竞争力，在2000年和2001年约三分之一的匈牙利总向日葵作物三分之一用于出口。一个公司（CereolRt.）占主导地位的商业油籽加工及Nemes（2003）的报告说，2002年Cereol提供价格€277.7每吨，而平均离岸价平价价格为€出口206.5（2001年，€离岸价格每吨241.2）。随着国际价格的下降，出口大幅下降，特别是作为2000-2002年期间油籽和植物油出口量不是由国家提供补贴。匈牙利的主要市场是俄罗斯，白俄罗斯，波兰，波斯尼亚和斯洛文尼亚。

匈牙利的马铃薯生产竞争力还没有过任何一年的研究。根据马铃薯种植面积的大幅下跌，自20世纪90年代初（1995年种植了近7万公顷，2002年则为34,500公顷）。现生产主要集中在大平原，但即使在那里分配给土豆面积比较小的其他作物。入世后，预计国内产量将进一步下降，从波兰的进口，作为替代。

甜菜糖和匈牙利的贸易是相当高度管制和国内市场的薄弱。两到三家公司主宰随着与这些大公司经营合同种植者的绝大多数制糖业。甜菜平均单产为每公顷40吨左右，这是一个与捷克共和国的标准杆，而且低于英国和（ZimmermannandZeddies，2002年）德国标准。DRCs的计算表明，农业生产是企业在2001年和2002年的国际竞争力，但由于市场的性质，用于甜菜面积有很大的变化不会在短期到中期内表现出预期。与的耕地生产相反，匈牙利畜牧业国际竞争力的过程中并没有早于90年代中期。Banse（1999年）的DRCs报告的牛奶和猪肉的比例大大高于1。在2000-2002年间，牛奶公司和个体农场生产仍然在国际上缺乏竞争力。虽然牛奶的生产效率也不是特别低，如在CGE模型的投入产出系数的证明，匈牙利取决于高贸易的支持（国内配额，高关税和出口补贴在2001年之前），以保持其作为一个状态净出口国。出口的单位价值低：给出的一个比例显示，调整后的离岸价按个别农场生产的牛奶在2001年边界值是每公升64福林（€0.26），而流通价和非流通价的成本为35和50福林（€0.13€0.19）分别为每公升。主要的非流通价的成本是劳动力投入的机会成本。这种对个体农场劳动投入是不受薪（自己或家庭），因此有一间支付的费用和DRCs的计算规定对土地和劳动力的机会成本帐有很大的差异。匈牙利的不利的国际地位，特别是与斯洛伐克，牛奶产量一直在其他地方被提出来（Udovecz，2001）。

然而，虽然仍是没有竞争力的牛奶，鸡肉生产商目睹2000年至2002年期间，在财富的改善，因为该行业从俄罗斯危机和扩大内需恢复家禽进口。德国和奥地利，目前匈牙利与这两个最重要的国家在2001年7月后与欧盟达成协议，大幅开放市场销售的出口市场。从丰收得益于2001年和2002年的行业：在2002年销售年度，饲料成本百分之十，比2001年低。在同一时期，产量也有所增加。然而，欧盟的管理卫生和动物福利法规的通过将增加生产成本（Keszietal.2003），从而降低成本的竞争力。

在猪肉生产方面，个人农场和企业之间仍存在着国际竞争力的巨大鸿沟。个别农场生产的竞争能力恶化，2000年至2002年，是该福林升值的结果。出口商必须依靠国家补贴（约占出口总额的是匈牙利总产量约20-25）。出口补贴的期限为2000至2002年猪肉27-90公斤，每福林的肉类依赖型（€0.09€0.39）