人工智能AI在劳动和生产力中的应用分析报告-培训课件外文版2024.5

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TRENDSArtificialintelligence(AI)inlabourandproductivityCHAPTER

01AImarketandpenetrationArtificialintelligence(AI)marketsizeworldwidein2021withaforecastuntil2030(inmillionU.S.dollars)Globalartificialintelligencemarketsize2021-20302,000,0001,800,0001,600,0001,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,00002021202220232024*2025*2026*2027*2028*2029*2030*3Description:AccordingtoNextMoveStrategyConsultingthemarketforartificialintelligence(AI)isexpectedtoshowstronggrowthinthecomingdecade.Itsvalueofnearly100billionU.S.dollarsisexpectedtogrowtwentyfoldby2030,uptonearlytwotrillionU.S.dollars.TheAImarketcoversavastnumberofindustries.Everythingfromsupplychains,marketing,productmaking,research,analysis,andmorearefieldsthatwillinsomeaspectadoptartificialintelligencewithintheirbusinessstructures.[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;*ForecastReadmoreSource(s):NextMoveStrategyConsultingSizeofexplainableartificialintelligence(AI)marketworldwidefrom2022to2030(inbillionU.S.dollars)ExplainableAImarketrevenuesworldwide2022-2030302520151024.5820.3316.8113.8711.439.397.76.2852024*2025*2026*2027*2028*2029*2030*4Description:AccordingtoNMSC,theglobalexplainableartificialintelligence(XAI)marketwasvaluedatfive-point-onebillionU.S.dollarsin2022.By2030,themarketisforecasttohaveavalueofover24billionU.S.dollars.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;*Forecast.CAGR2020-2030:18.4%ReadmoreSource(s):NextMoveStrategyConsultingArtificialintelligence(AI)privateinvestmentworldwidein2022,byindustryGlobalprivateinvestmentinAI2022,byindustryInvestmentinU.S.dollarbillions01234567MedicalandhealthcareDatamanagement,processing,cloudFintech6.055.865.525.38Cybersecurity,dataprotectionRetail4.2Industrialautomation,networkSalesenablementMarketing,digitaladsAR/VR3.923.183.052.39Drones1.88InsurtechMusic,videocontentSemiconductor1.741.721.655Description:Thelargestprivateinvestmentinartificialintelligence(AI)companieswasinthemedicalandhealthcarefield.TheinvestmenttherewasoversixbillionU.S.dollars.Othersubstantialinvestmentswerefoundindatamanagement,fintech,andcybersecurity,witharoundoroverfivepointfivebillionU.S.dollarsininvestmentwithineachofthosefields.ThelowestamountofinvestmentwasinAIcompaniesintheventurecapital(VC)field,withbarely20millionU.S.dollarsinvested.The[...]ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):StanfordUniversityRelativeartificialintelligence(AI)penetrationrateacrossgenderfrom2015to2022,invariouscountriesRelativeAIskillpenetrationratebygender,2015-2022,invariouscountriesNumberofmetricsFemale1.5Male0.00.51.02.02.53.03.51.99IndiaUnitedStatesIsrael3.271.282.360.870.862.05CanadaGermanySingaporeUnitedKingdomFrance1.590.710.681.911.370.571.460.390.380.311.13NetherlandsUnitedArabEmiratesItaly0.980.980.820.850.310.3Brazil6Description:Maleshaveatendancytogoforartificialintelligence(AI)relatedskillsatafarhigherratethanfemales.ThegreatestconcentrationofAIskillswasinIndia,wheremenweremorethanthreetimesaslikelytogoforsuchskillsetsthantheaverageindividual.FemalesinIndiawerealsobyfarthemostlikelytoseeksuchskills,atnearlytwicetherateoftheaverageindividual.TheleastdifferencebetweenthegenderswasintheUnitedStateswheremenwerebarelytwiceaslikelytolistAIskills[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):StanfordUniversityCHAPTER

02GlobalproductivityInfluenceofgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)onworldwideproductivitygrowthfrom2022to2040(inCAGR)ImpactofgenerativeAIonproductivityworldwide2022-2040WithoutgenerativeAIAdditionalwithgenerativeAI3.5%3.0%0.6%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%2.6%Early0.1%0.1%Late8Description:GenerativeAIwillhaveamuchgreaterimpactonglobalproductivityifadaptedinearlyscenariosratherthanlaterscenarios.Thisisconsistentwiththeoverallrequirementtoshiftlabourhourstomoreeffectiveuseasautomationincreasesbetween2022and2040.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023;47countriesaccountingfor80%ofworldemploymentSource(s):McKinsey&Company;OxfordEconomicsInfluenceofgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)onproductivitygrowthintheUnitedStatesfrom2022to2040(inCAGR)ImpactofgenerativeAIonU.S.productivity2022-2040WithoutgenerativeAIAdditionalwithgenerativeAITotal8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%3.6%0.7%2.9%0.6%0.3%0.4%LateEarly9Description:GenerativeAIwillhaveamuchgreaterimpactonU.S.productivityifadaptedinearlyscenariosratherthanlaterscenarios.Thisisconsistentwiththeoverallrequirementtoshiftlaborhourstomoreeffectiveuseasautomationincreasesbetween2022and2040.TheU.S.wouldseenearlyadoublingofproductivitygrowthinthelateautomationscenariowiththeuseofgenerativeAI.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2023Source(s):McKinsey&Company;OxfordEconomicsInfluenceofgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)onproductivitygrowthinGermanyfrom2022to2040(inCAGR)ImpactofgenerativeAIonGermanproductivity2022-2040WithoutgenerativeAIAdditionalwithgenerativeAITotal9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%3.9%0.6%3.4%1.3%0.2%1.1%EarlyLate10Description:Germany'sconsiderableproductivitygrowthifautomationandlaborhoursareadaptedearlyintheobservedperiodwithbesignificantlyfurtherboostedwiththeuseofgenerativeAI.Inthelatestagescenariotheproductivityboostwillbeconsiderablyless,beingbarelyaquarteroftheoverallproductivityincrease.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;2023Source(s):McKinsey&Company;OxfordEconomicsInfluenceofgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)onproductivitygrowthinFrancefrom2022to2040(inCAGR)ImpactofgenerativeAIonFrenchproductivity2022-2040WithoutgenerativeAIAdditionalwithgenerativeAITotal8.0%7.0%6.0%3.7%5.0%4.0%0.7%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%3%0.8%0.2%0.6%EarlyLate11Description:TheproductivitygrowthofautomationinFranceisconsiderablyhigherifadaptedinaearlystagescenariointheperiodobserved,2022to2040.EveninalatestageautomationscenarioFrancewillreapaconsiderablebenefitfromtheinvolvementofgenerativeAI.ReadmoreNote(s):France;2023Source(s):McKinsey&Company;OxfordEconomicsCHAPTER

03AutomationIndustryemploymentatriskofautomationbyartificialintelligence(AI)intheUnitedStatesin2023,byindustryPositionatAIautomationriskinU.S.2023,byindustryShareofindustrypositions10%

15%

20%0%5%25%30%35%40%45%50%OfficeandadministrativesupportLegal46%44%ArchitectureandengineeringLife,physical,andsocialscienceBusinessandfinancialoperationsCommunityandsocialserviceManagement37%36%35%33%32%31%SalesandrelatedComputerandmathematicsFarming,fishing,andforestryHealthcarepractitionersandtechnicalProtectiveservice29%28%28%28%Educationalinstructionandlibrary27%13Description:Officeandadministrativework,alongwithpositionsinthelegalfield,arebyfarthemostlikelytobeatriskofartificialintelligence(AI)automationinthecomingyears.Thesepositionsmightbemoreatriskastheyrequireunderstandingofprocessanddetailedworkthathasclearcutendresults.Thoseresultsmightbelocationspecificdocumentsorexamplesofsimilarprocesses.Thepositionsleastlikelytobeautomatedbyartificialintelligencearepositionsthatrequireattentiontoawide[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2023Source(s):GoldmanSachsIndustryemploymentatriskofautomationbyartificialintelligence(AI)intheEuroareain2023,byindustryPositionatAIautomationriskintheEuroarea2023,byindustryShareofindustrypositions10%

15%

20%0%5%25%30%29%35%34%40%45%45%50%ClericalsupportworkersProfessionalsTechniciansandassociateprofessionalsManagers31%Total24%Armedforcesoccupations22%21%Skilledagricultural,forestry,andfisheryworkersServiceandsalesworkers15%Elementaryoccupations8%7%PlantandmachineoperatorandassemblersCraftandrelatedtradesworkers4%14Description:Clericalsupportworkerspositionsaremostatriskofbeingautomatedbyartificialintelligence(AI)intheEuroareain2023.Asthesepositionsareoftenabouttheprecisionofspecifictasks,andlesslikelytoencountergrayareaevaluationsituations,theyaretheoptimalpositionstoautomatewithanAI.Theleastlikelypositionstobeautomatedaredetailedandindividualisticpositions,suchasthoseofspecificindustriesorwithincraftsandtradepositions.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;2023Source(s):GoldmanSachsOverallautomationpotentialwithandwithoutgenerativeartificialintelligenceinphysicalactivitiesin2023AutomationpotentialofgenerativeAIinphysicalactivitiesin2023AutomationpotentialPerformingpredictablephysicalwork

Performingunpredictablephysicalwork20%

30%

40%

50%0%10%60%70%80%45.5%WithgenerativeAI46%72.5%73%WithoutgenerativeAI15Description:GenerativeAIhadnoappreciableimpactontheautomationpotentialofphysicalactivitiesin2023.ThisisunderstandableasgenerativeAIiscompletelyadigitalprocess,andwouldbehighlyunlikelytomakemuchdifferenceforprojectsrequiringphysicalstrength.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023Source(s):McKinsey&CompanyGlobalautomationpotentialwithandwithoutgenerativeartificialintelligenceindatamanagementin2023AutomationpotentialofgenerativeAIindatamanagementworldwide2023AutomationpotentialCollectingdata30%

40%Processingdata50%0%10%20%60%70%80%90%100%79%WithgenerativeAI90.5%68%WithoutgenerativeAI73%16Description:DataprocessinganddatacollectioncanbothbemoderatelymoreautomatedwiththedevelopmentofgenerativeAIin2023.Whiletheautomationpossibilitieswerealreadyconsiderableinbothcases,intheinstanceofdataprocessingitrisestoover90percentautomationwithgenerativeAI.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023Source(s):McKinsey&CompanyGlobalautomationpotentialwithandwithoutgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)indecisionmakingandcollaborationin2023AutomationpotentialofgenerativeAIindecisionmakingactivitiesin2023AutomationpotentialWithoutgenerativeAI20%WithgenerativeAI30%

40%0%10%50%60%70%24.5%ApplyingexpertiseManaging58.5%15.5%49%24%Interfacingwithstakeholders45%17Description:NearlyallformsofdecisionmakingcanbeenhancedconsiderablywiththeinvolvementofgenerativeAIintheprocess.Thegreatestimprovementinautomationwouldbeinmanagemend,wheretheautomationpotentialmorethantripled.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023Source(s):McKinsey&CompanyLeadingsustainabilityartificialintelligence(AI)revenuedriversincompaniesworldwidein2023AIsustainabilitybasedrevenuedriversinenterprisesglobally2023HighimpactMediumimpactLowimpactNoimpact50%44%44%43%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%42%40%38%17%13%11%3%2%2%0%Adoptingrenewablesandalternativeenergy/power

DesignmoresustainableproductsandservicessourcesCreatinghigher-performingproductswithfewermaterials18Description:SustainableAIrevenuedriverswerefairlywellalignedintheirimpactlevels,withallofthemhavinganover40percentofhighimpactinrevenuein2023.Notableexceptionwasthatadoptingrenewablesandalternativeenergy/powersourceshadahighratiooflowerimpact.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023;610respondentsSource(s):S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence;WEKACHAPTER

04SkillingandreskillingArtificialintelligence(AI)developmentalchallengeswithinenterprisesintheU.S.andWestern-Europeinthe2ndhalfof2022ChallengesforcompaniesdevelopingAIintheWestH2202260%54%50%43%41%40%30%20%10%0%34%34%18%12%Infrastructure-related

Computer-relatedchallenges

challengesData-relatedchallengesExpenseofdoingAITraining-relatedchallengesDefiningbusinessgoalsWehavenoAIdevelopmentchallenges20Description:InfrastructurerepresentedthesinglegreatestchallengetoAIdevelopmentinthewesternworldinthesecondhalfof2022.Thebuildupofnetworksandinternetinfrastructureinadvancedeconomiesisfaraheadoftherestoftheworldbutstillneedsfurtherdevelopment.Only12percentofrespondentssaidtheyfacednochallenges.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,UnitedStates;H22022;450respondents;Data,engineering,AI,andML(MachineLearning)professionalsSource(s):Run:aiInternaltechnologicalandlaborchallengesinenterprisesintheUnitedStatesin2023ChallengestointernalbusinesstransformationintheU.S,2023ShareofrespondentsSomewhatofachallenge

Significantchallenge0%

10%

20%

30%40%50%60%70%39%37%37%28%34%32%25%80%90%100%AchievingmeasurablevaluefromadoptingnewtechnologiesChangingouroperatingmodeltosupportournewvisionCostofadoptingnewtechnology49%48%47%Trainingexistingtalentonnewtechnology56%Strikingtherightbalancebetweenshort-termcostcuttingandinvestingtodrivegrowth49%47%49%45%46%PoorsuccessionplanEmployeesfearthatnewtechnologywillmaketheirjobsobsoleteCompanycultureisnotconducivetoinnovation29%26%Difficultychangingwherewedobusiness21Description:AchievingmeasurablevaluefromnewtechnologiesisthechiefchallengetomostU.S.enterprisesin2023.Nearly90percentofrespondentsexpectedthistoproveaninternalchallengetobusinesschange.Notablewasthattrainingnewtalentwasfarmorelikelytoposesomewhatofachallengeratherthanbeingamajorchallenge,withover55percentofrespondentsexpectingittobesomewhatofachallenge.ReadmoreNote(s):August1stto8th,2023;609respondentsSource(s):PwCCommercialleadersexpectationoftheimpactofgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)usecasesin2023SignificantimpactofgenerativeAIoncommercialactivity2023Shareofrespondents10%0%20%30%40%50%60%60%70%Leadidentification(realtime,basedoncustomertrends)Marketingoptimization(A/Btesting,SEOstrategies)Personalizedoutreach(chatbots,virtualassistants)Dynamiccontent(websites,marketingcollateral)Up/cross-sellingrecs(viausagepatterns,supporttickets)Successanalytics(continuouschurnmodeling)55%53%50%50%45%45%45%Marketinganalytics(dynamicaudiencetargeting)Dynamiccustomer-journeymapping(identifyingcriticaltouchpoints)Automatedmarketingworkflows(nurturingcampaigns)Salesanalytics(predictivepricing,negotiation)35%30%Salescoaching(hyper-personalizedtraining)25%22Description:MostexecutivesaskedexpectedAItohavetheleastamountofimpactonsalescouchingin2023.ThisisinalllikelyhoodassalesdemandaconsiderableamountofhumaninteractionandteachingmannerismstoAIisstillverydifficult.HyperpersonalizedtrainingofthissortisunlikelytobethepurviewofAIinthenearfuture.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023;SeniorexecutivesinsignificantglobalB2BandB2Csalesandmarketingorganizations*Source(s):McKinsey&CompanyArtificialintelligence(AI)useimpactonemployeesneedingtobereskilledinorganizationsgloballyin2023ImpactofAIadoptiononneedforemployeesbeingreskilledworldwidein2023Shareofrespondents2005101525303540Don'tknow>20%83811-20%6-10%181720≤5%23/statistics/1407482/employee-reskilling-due-to-aiMostrespondentswithinorganizationsin2023expectedincreasedAIadoptiontoforceovertwentypercentofemployeestoneedreskillinginsomefashion.Intotal73percentofrespondentsexpectsomelevelofreskillingtooccurforemployees.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;11-21.April2023;1684respondentsSource(s):McKinsey&CompanyArtificialintelligence(AI)useimpactonemployeenumbersinorganizationsgloballyin2023ImpactofAIadoptiononemployeenumbersworldwidein2023Shareofrespondents10%0%5%12%15%20%25%30%35%Don'tknowIncreaseby>20%3%4%Increaseby11-20%Increase3-10%8%30%Littleornochange(decreaseorincreaseby≤2%)Decreaseby3-10%25%Decreaseby11-20%10%8%Decreasebyby>20%24Description:Mostrespondentswithinorganizationsin2023expectedAItohavelittlechangeonemployeenumbers.Overallthenumberofemployeeswereexpectedtodecrease,withsome43percentofrespondentsclaimingso.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;11stto21stApril,2023;1,684respondentsSource(s):McKinsey&CompanyMainemploymentareasofnewartificialintelligence(AI)PhDholdersinNorth-Americafrom2015to2021,bysectorEmploymentofnewAIPhDsinNorth-America2015-2021,bysectorIndustryAcademiaGovernment30025020015010050243845654736126360442195180162153134116770201520162017201820192020202125Description:ThegreaterpartofthosegraduatingwithaPhDinartificialintelligence(AI)educationhavegonetoworkinindustryandtheprivatemarket.Whilethesecondlargestgroupisacademiaithasremainedrelativelyconstantsince2016,withbetween65-75graduatesgoingintoacademia.ThismeansthatthedrivingforcebehindgrowthinAIhasbeentheprivatemarketasthereismoreandmoreneedforworkerswithadvancedAIskills.GovernmentremainsastablemarketforafewPhD[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;*Sourcegivesnonumberforgovernmentemployment.NumbercalculatedbySource(s):StanfordUniversity;ReadmoreCHAPTER

05Specialfocus:TheUnitedStatesEffectofartificialintelligence(AI)adoptiononannuallaborproductivitygrowthintheUnitedStates,byAIcapabilitiesandlabordisplacementEffectonproductivitywithAIadoptionU.S.,byAIcapabilityandlabordisplacement3.5%2.9%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%2.4%2.4%1.5%1.3%0.8%0.7%0.5%0.3%MuchlesspowerfulAISloweradoption

Sloweradoption(30years)

(20years)SlightlylesspowerfulAINolabourdisplacementBaselineSlightlymoreMorelabourMuchmorepowerfulAI*

displacement**

powerfulAI*27Description:Themorepowerfultheartificialintelligence(AI)used,themoreimpressivethebenefitsonlaborproductivitywillbe.ThisisconsistentforthosecompaniesadoptingAIovera10yearperiod,with20yearand30yearperiodsallbothdemonstratingafarslowerincreaseinproductivity.ThedisplacementoflaborisfarlessdrasticifcompaniesarewillingtoemploymorepowerfulAImodels.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStatesSource(s):GoldmanSachsAutomationpotentialwithandwithoutgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)intheUnitedStatesin2023,byprofessionAutomationpotentialofgenerativeAIintheU.S.2023,byprofessionAutomationpotentialWithoutgenerativeAIWithgenerativeAI0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%15%EducatorandworkforcetrainingBusinessandlegalprofessionalsSTEMprofessionalsCommunityservicesCreativesandartsmanagementOfficesupport54%32%62%28%28%57%39%65%66%53%87%27%ManagersHealthprofessionalsCustomerserviceandsalesPropertymaintenanceHealthaides,technicians,andwellnessProductionwork44%43%29%45%57%29%38%34%43%73%82%28Description:GenerativeAIhadtheleastimpactontheautomationpossibilityofbuildersandagricultureprofessionsin2023.Thesearehighlyirregularandtakestockoflocalconditions,eachprojectbeinghighlyindi