IRENA-气候行动与能源转型：国际可再生能源机构成员关于国家自主贡献的调查（英）

IRENA

InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

Climateactionandtheenergytransition

IRENAMembers’survey

onNationallyDeterminedContributions

June2024

©IRENA2024

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ISBN:978-92-9260-613-8

Citation:IRENA(2024),Climateactionandtheenergytransition:IRENAMembersurveyonNationallyDeterminedContributions,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi

AboutIRENA

TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)servesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,arepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledge,andadriverofactiononthegroundtoadvancethetransformationoftheglobalenergysystem.Anintergovernmentalorganisationestablishedin2011,IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

UndertheguidanceofGurbuzGonul(Director,IRENACountryEngagementandPartnerships)andBinuParthan,thisreportwasauthoredbyToyoKawabata,MargaretSuh(ex-IRENA)andEunjuYun.Thereportbenefitedgreatlyfromvaluableinputs,comments,supportandreviewby:AmjadAbdulla,AbdullahAbouAli,AdamAdiwinata,ArietaGonelevuRakai,AichaBenYoussef,AsamiMiketa,BadariahYosiyana,CamiloRamirezIsaza,ElizabethNjokiWanjiru,FaranRana,InesJacob,IrisvanderLugt,JoongYeopLee,JoséTorón,KamleshDookayka,KaranpreetKaur,MamadouGoundiam,NadiaMohammed,NadeemGoussous,NazikElhassan,NolwaziKhumalo,PaulKomor,PaulaNardone,PetyaIcheva,SimonBenmarraze,TarigAhmedandVarvaraAleksić(IRENA);JunyaoWang(ex-IRENA);BerndHackmann,RyoHamaguchiandKenichiKitamura(UNFCCCSecretariat);andRomeoBertoliniandAmandaMcKee(NDCPartnership).

PublicationsandeditorialsupportwereprovidedbyFrancisFieldandStephanieClarke,withdesignbyMyrtoPetrou.Forfurtherinformationortoprovidefeedback:

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DISCLAIMER

Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agentsorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.

TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVESUMMARY 5

INTRODUCTION 7

1.NATIONALLYDETERMINEDCONTRIBUTIONS(NDCS) 8

1.1.OVERVIEWOFTHENDCCYCLE 8

1.2.ENERGYSECTORANDNDCS 10

2.METHODOLOGYOFTHESURVEY 12

3.RESULTSANDDISCUSSION 13

3.1OVERVIEW 13

3.2NDCENHANCEMENT 14

3.3NDCIMPLEMENTATION 18

3.4LT-LEDS 21

4.RECOMMENDATIONS 24

REFERENCES 27

ANNEX 29

QUESTIONSONNDCENHANCEMENT 29

QUESTIONSONNDCIMPLEMENTATION 31

QUESTIONSONLT-LEDS 32

OPTIONALQUESTIONS 33

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Climateactionandtheenergytransition

TABLESANDFIGURES

Table1MethodologyoftheNDCsurvey 12

Table2Responseoverview 13

Table3Enhancementofambitiononenergysectortarget 14

Table4Improvementnecessaryforpowersystems 19

Table5Capacitybuildingneeds 21

Table6DevelopmentofLT-LEDS 21

Table7Emissionspeakingyearandnet-zeroemissiontargets 22

Figure1NDCcycleundertheParisAgreement 8

Figure2ExpectedformofenergysectortargetsinthenextNDC 14

Figure3MeasuresnecessaryforenhancingambitionoftheNDCenergy

sectortargets 15

Figure4Adaptationandsustainabledevelopmentco-benefitsconsidered

forthenextNDC 16

Figure5NDCenhancementchallenges 17

Figure6Policiesandregulationsnecessaryforadvancingtheenergytransition 18

Figure7ChallengesindevelopingLT-LEDSornet-zerostrategies 22

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IRENAMembers’surveyonNationallyDeterminedContributions

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

ThenextsubmissionofNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)totheParisAgreementin2025mustmarkaturningpointtobringtheworldbackontracktomeetthe20501.5degreesCelsius(°C)pathway.AsagreedintheFirstGlobalStocktakeatthe28thConferenceoftheParties(COP)totheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)(COP28),countrieswillneedtotranslatetheglobaltargettotriplerenewablesby2030,adoptedatCOP28,intotheirnationalclimatetargets,whilealsoreflectingtheirdifferentstartingpointsandnationalcircumstances.

TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)undertookaMembers’surveyin2023togainabetterunderstandingoftheupcomingNDCsubmissionstotheUNFCCC,specificallyintheenergysectorcomponent.Thesurveyoutcomehelpsshedlightontheclimateactionsupportneedsofthecountriesinthecomingyears.Thesurveywasconductedfrom26Juneto31October2023.Throughthesurvey,51IRENAMemberssharedtheirprovisionalplans,challengesandsupportneedsregardingtheenhancementandimplementationoftheirenergysectorNDCs.Withanoverallresponserateof44%,responseswerereceivedfrom12sub-SaharanAfrican,9Asian,7MiddleEasternandNorthAfrican,7LatinAmericanand3SouthEastEuropeancountries,and13smallislanddevelopingstates(SIDS).

ThisreportprovidesanoverviewoftheNDCprocess,andareviewofthesurveyresults,highlightingthechallenges,prioritiesandopportunitiesforNDCenhancementandimplementation,aswellasthedevelopmentoflong-termlowemissionsdevelopmentstrategies(LT-LEDS),identifiedbyMembers.

Thekeyfindingsinclude:

•NDCenhancement:Atotalof35IRENAMembersintendtoraisetheambitionoftheirenergysectortargets.Nearlyall(97%)sharedplanstospecifythetargetedshareofrenewablesintheirelectricitymixes,while77%indicatedtheirintenttoincludetargetsforgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsreductionsintheenergysector.Quantifiableabsoluterenewabletargetsarealsoimportantgiventheglobalgoaloftriplingrenewablesby2030:oftherespondentMembers,30%mentiontheplannedreferencetoaquantifiabletargetofrenewablesdeploymentineithercapacityorgeneration.Amongthetargetmeasures,renewables,energyefficiency,andgridinfrastructureandmodernisationaremostfrequentlymentionedforenhancement.Morethan50%oftherespondentMembersanticipatechallengesrelatedtoalackoftechnicalskillsandhumancapacity,assessingjusttransitionandsocio-economicbenefits,andobtainingsufficientdatafordevelopingtargetsandmodellingscenariostoenhanceNDCs.

•NDCimplementation:FortheareasnecessaryforimprovementtodriveNDCimplementation,energyefficiencystandards,energystorageandcarbonfinancearefrequentlymentioned,withthenumberofrespondentcountriestotalling38,38and33,respectively.Physicalinfrastructureisalsokey,ashighlightedby42countriesintotal:respondentcountriesalsoidentifiedprioritiesonmodernisinginfrastructure,includinggrid-formingtechnologiesandutility-scaleenergystoragetoshaperenewables-basedenergysystemsandoptimisetheintegrationofvariablerenewableelectricity(VRE).BuildingandmaintainingmodernandresilientinfrastructureiscrucialtoNDCimplementation,giventheirsignificantrolesinclimatechangemitigation,resilienceandsustainabledevelopment.Withanenablingregulatorysetting,technologiesandinfrastructures,robustcommercially-attractiveprojectpipelinescanbebuiltfordeployingenergytransitionprojects.

Climateactionandtheenergytransition

•LT-LEDSdevelopment:Inall,68%ofrespondentMembersareplanning,orhavedeveloped,LT-LEDS,while29%havenospecificplansyet.Morethan50%ofrespondentssharedtheirexpectedchallengesonthedevelopmentofarobustmonitoring/evaluationframework,socio-economicimpactassessmentandfinancialresourcesfordevelopingLT-LEDS.ThedevelopmentofrobustLT-LEDSisimportantbecausethesestrategiescanguidecountriesinaligningwiththeirNDCsbyfacilitatingbackcastingfromambitiousemissionsreductiongoalstoidentifyshort-,mid-andlong-termmilestonesaswellasopportunitiesandbarriersfornationaldevelopmentthatarecompatiblewithParisAgreementgoals.Tocreatesuchpositivesynergies,morecountriesareencouragedtodeveloptheirLT-LEDS.

NDCsandLT-LEDSpresentopportunitiesforcountriestoaddresstheenergytransitionwithintheirnationalclimateplanningprocesses.Reflectingonthesurveyresults,itisclearthatthereisconsiderableroomfordevelopmentagenciestoprovidetechnicalsupportinvariousareasofenergytransition-relevantclimateaction.Manycountriessharedthechallengestheyfaceinrelationtoenergydataavailabilityandthedevelopmentandassessmentofscenarios.Countriesalsomentionedtheirsupportneedsinassessingfairenergytransitionstailoredtotheircontexts,focusingonsocio-economicprioritiesandimpactsonexistingenergysystemsandindustries.

Inaddition,countriesshowedinterestinbroadandgloballyemergingenergytransitiontechnologyoptions,suchasutility-scalebatterystorage,greenhydrogenandotheroptions.Offeringspecifictechnologyassessmentssupportscountriesinidentifyingavailableopportunities.Developingcountriesalsoneedinternationalsupporttodevisepolicies,incentivesandinfrastructurestodeployenergytransitiontechnologies.Lastbutnotleast,supportforprojectdevelopmentandfacilitationisalsonecessary.Supportingthedevelopmentofprojectpipelinesandmatchmakingisessentialformobilisingenergytransitioninvestment.

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•7•

IRENAMembers’surveyonNationallyDeterminedContributions

INTRODUCTION

Theworldisfarofftracktolimitglobaltemperatureriseto1.5degreesCelsius(°C)abovepre-industriallevels,asclearlystatedbytheIPCCSixthAssessmentReport(AR6)(IPCC,2023).Thereportaffirmsthata43%reductionofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsby2030comparedto2019willkeepusontracktolimitglobalwarmingto1.5°C.Accordingly,short-termclimateambitionneedstobeenhancedtoratchetuptheenergytransition.Increasingrenewablecapacitywillcontributetoaglobalenergytransitionalignedwithclimateobjectives.InlinewiththeFirstGlobalStocktake(GST)outcome,1aswellasthe28thConferenceoftheParties(COP)totheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)(COP28)GlobalPledgeonRenewablesandEnergyEfficiencyendorsedby133countries(COP28Presidency,2024),InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)analysisconcludesthattriplingtheinstalledcapacityofrenewablepowertomorethan11000gigawatts(GW)anddoublingtherateofenergyefficiencygloballyby2030willleadtoa1.5°Ccompatiblepathway(IRENA,2023a).

ThelatestIRENAdataindicatethat2023setanewbenchmarkinrenewablepowerdeployment,with473GWaddedtotheglobalenergymix(IRENA,2024a).Despitetheserecordrenewablepowercapacityadditions,progressintheenergytransitionisinsufficient.Scalinguprenewablesisthereforethemostimportantactionthatcanbetakenby2030iftheworldistoachievenetzeroby2050.Thiswillrequireanincreaseintheshareofrenewablesintheglobalenergymixfrom16%in2020to77%by2050(IRENA,2023a).Theyearsleadingupto2030arecriticalforbringingtheworldbackontracktowardsthe1.5°Cpathway.

KeytoreturningtothispathwayaretheenhancementandimplementationofNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs).ThepartiestotheParisAgreementwillsubmitnewNDCsin2025.AscommittedintheGlobalPledgebyitssignatoriesandtheoutcomeoftheGST,countriesshouldconsiderthetriplingofrenewablesatthegloballevelfortheirnextsubmissionofNDCs,whilereflectingtheirdifferentstartingpointsandnationalcircumstances.2

Againstthisbackground,IRENAundertookaMembers’surveyin2023toenhanceunderstandingofclimateactionefforts,particularlyintheenergysector,inpreparationforthenextNDCs.Thesurveyhelpsdevelopmentpartnerstounderstandcountries’climateactionsupportneedsforthecomingyears.ThispaperexaminestheNDCprocessandanalysessurveyresultstohighlightchallenges,prioritiesandopportunitiesinenhancingandimplementingNDCs,aswellasindevelopinglong-termlowemissionsdevelopmentstrategies(LT-LEDS).

1Firstglobalstocktake,Para28(a)ofDecision1/CMA.5,UNFCCC(FCCC/PA/CMA/2023/16/Add.1),accessed26April2024.

2ThefirstNDCsareestimatedtocollectivelyresultinatemperatureriseof2.9°C3.4°Cby2100.ThesameestimateofthesecondandupdatedfirstNDCsisintherangeof2.1-2.9°C,accordingtothe2022NDCSynthesisReportoftheUNFCCCSecretariat.Newpledgesmustbemoreambitiousiftheworldistogetontrackfora1.5°Cfuture.TherevisionofNDCsisacriticalopportunitytoadvanceglobaleffortstomeettheParisAgreementgoals.

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Climateactionandtheenergytransition

1.NATIONALLYDETERMINEDCONTRIBUTIONS(NDCS)

UndertheParisAgreement’sArticle4,theUNFCCCpartiesaremandatedtoenhancetheirNDCseveryfiveyears.Thenextroundofsubmissionsisscheduledfor2025andwillprovidetheinformationnecessaryforclarity,transparencyandunderstanding(ICTU)3asapplicablefromthesecondNDCsinlinewiththeKatowiceClimatePackage.4

NDCsrefertothetargetsandactionsthatpartiestotheParisAgreementcommittoundertakeinaddressingclimatechangebasedontheirnationalcircumstancesandpriorities.Theterminologyunderscoresthebottom-up(nationallydetermined)natureofthecontributions.Acountry’sNDCservesastheprimarymeanstoarticulateitsplansformitigatingGHGemissions.ThecollectiveimpactofNDCsdeterminesglobalprogresstowardthelong-termtemperaturegoaloftheParisAgreement,aimingtolimittheincreasetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevels,witheffortstoreducethisfurtherto1.5°C.

1.1.OVERVIEWOFTHENDCCYCLE

TheNDCprocessoperatesinacomprehensivecycleinvolvingpreparationandsubmission,implementation,reportingandGST.

Figure1NDCcycleundertheParisAgreement

TheoutcomeofGSTwillinformthepreparationofsubsequentNDCs

Implementation

Preparationandsubmission

Reporting

Globalstocktake

ParisAgreementParties

•arerequestedtosubmitNDCsevery5years

regardlessoftheir

respectivetimeframes

•shallprovideICTUwhilecommunicatingNDCs.

Implementationrequiresdefiningaconcretesetofimplementationoptions,costingoftheoptions,

formulatingstrategiestofinanceNDCs,andscalingupclimatefinanceinanintergratedway.

Theprogressin

implementing/achievingNDCsissummerisedinBTR,aspartofETF,andreviewedbyinternationalexpertreviewteam.

GSTassessescollectiveprogresstowards

achieving

theParisAgreement.

3stagesofGST:

•Informationcollection

•Technicalassessment

•Considerationofoutputs

Notes:BTR=BiennialTransparencyReport;ETF=EnhancedTransparencyFramework;GST=GlobalStocktake.

3Decision4/CMA.1.Furtherguidanceinrelationtothemitigationsectionofdecision1/CP.21.UNFCCC,

/sites/

default/files/resource/4-CMA.1_English.pdf,

accessed26April2024.

4Decision3/CMA.1.MattersrelatingtotheimplementationoftheParisAgreement.UNFCCC,

/sites/default/files/

resource/cma2018_3_add1_advance.pdf#page=3,

accessed24January2024.

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IRENAMembers’surveyonNationallyDeterminedContributions

Preparationandsubmission

Everyfiveyears,partiespreparenewNDCstypicallywithaten-yeartimeframe,withheightenedambitionandwithoutregression.5

ToensuretheclarityofNDCsandtheircomparabilityandmutualunderstanding,allpartiestotheParisAgreementprovideICTUinthesecondandsubsequentNDCs,asemphasisedintheParisRulebookaspartoftheKatowiceClimatePackageadoptedatCOP24in2018.6KeycomponentsofICTUencompassquantifiableinformationonreferencepoints,timeframesforimplementation,NDCscope,planningprocesses,assumptionsandmethodologyapproaches,theparty’sevaluationofthefairnessandambitionofNDC,anditscontributiontoachievingtheobjectiveintheParisAgreementArticle2.Ifaparty’sNDCincludesmitigationco-benefitsresultingfromparties’adaptationactionsand/oreconomicdiversificationplans,theseshouldbedescribed/specified.7

ItisgenerallyrecommendedthatNDCsneedtobedevelopedinabottom-upandinclusiveprocessinconsultationwithdifferentministriesandmulti-stakeholders(GIZ,2022).InthepreviouscycleofNDCpreparation,manycountriesformulatedworkinggroupsortaskforceshostedatanNDCfocalministry(typicallytheministryofenvironment),whichco-ordinatedthecontributionfromdifferentministries,othergovernmentbodiesandnon-stateactors.AparticipatoryandtransparentprocessisalsoessentialtoensurenationalownershipforadvancingNDCimplementation.

Implementation

TheNDCtargetswillneedtobetranslatedintoimplementationontheground.Doingsorequiresdefiningaconcretesetofimplementationoptions,costingtheoptions,formulatingstrategiestofinanceNDCsandscalingupclimatefinanceinanintegratedway(UNDPetal.,2020).WhileNDCsarebackedatthehighestlevelofgovernmentinmostcountries,implementingNDCsrequiresawhole-governmentapproachthatmustengagesector-specificministriessuchasenergy,transportandothers,aswellasfinanceministriesandsubnationalgovernments.Tothatend,integratingNDCsintonationaldevelopmentplanningandbudgetaryprocessesisessentialtodrivetheimplementationoftargetsandactioncommittedinNDCs.Inaddition,currentNDCsarenotdesignedasportfoliosofcommerciallyattractiveprojectsbutratherdraftedtoidentifynationalclimatepriorities(UNEP,2018).Hence,thereisstillaconsiderableneedforcountriestodevelopspecificinvestmentplansthattranslateNDCsintobankableprojects.Moreover,capacitybuildingisakeytoenhancethecapabilityofprojectdevelopersincludingthelocalprivatesectortodevelopbankableprojects.TomobilisetheprivatesectorforNDCimplementation,itisimportanttoensuretheconsistencybetweenNDCsandrelevantlaws/regulationsandexistingnationalstrategies8aswellasthedeploymentofincentivemechanismsforNDCprioritiesthroughfinancialandfiscalpolicies.Policycoherenceleadstomoreclarityandhelpsreducemanyperceivedrisksforinvestorstodevelopcommerciallyviableandattractiveprojects.

5WhilepartiesagreedtoapplycommontimeframestotheirNDCsfrom2031onwardsatCOP24(Decision6/CMA.1),noclearconsensushavebeenmadewithrespecttothedurationandapplicabilityofthecommontimeframe.

6Decision4/CMA.1FurtherguidanceinrelationtothemitigationsectionofDecision1/CP.21.

7ItisalsouptothePartiestoincludeAdaptationCommunicationswithinorinconjunctionwiththeirNDCs.

8InIRENA’sanalysisofcurrentNDCs,amongtheLeastDevelopingCountries(LDCs)only11havefullyalignedtheirrenewabletargetsinNDCswithtargetsintheirnationalplansandpolicies.Meanwhile,amongSIDS,33UNFCCCpartieshaveNDCtargetsofatleast

partialorfullalignmentwithnationalpolicydocuments(IRENA,2023b).

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Climateactionandtheenergytransition

Reporting

InaccordancewithArticle13oftheParisAgreement,theEnhancedTransparencyFramework(ETF)aimstoprovideaclearunderstandingofclimatechangeaction,includingthetrackingofprogresstowardachievingparties’individualNDCs.TheETFbuildsonandrefinestheexistingmeasurement,reportingandverification(MRV)arrangementswithflexibilityforSIDSandleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs),allowingadjustmentsbasedontheircapacities.

UndertheETF,allpartiesaremandatedtosubmitbiennialtransparencyreports(BTRs)everytwoyears,withthefirstsubmissionby31December2024.AsapartofreportingthattracksprogressofNDCsinBTRs,countriesshallelaborateonnationalcircumstances,institutionalarrangements,andindicatorssuchasnetGHGemissionsandremovals.Thiswillfacilitateabetterunderstandingofcountries’NDCachievementstages.ThefirstBTRsduebytheendof2024willtracktheimplementationprogressoftheNDCssubmittedbythattime.

TheGlobalStocktake

Toassesstheglobalresponsetotheclimatecrisis,aGSToccurseveryfiveyearsfrom2023onwards.TheGSTassessescollectiveprogresstowardsthegoalsoftheParisAgreement,informingsubsequentNDCs.TheParisAgreementdesignedamechanismforpartiestoenhancetheirmitigationambitioninformedbytheoutcomesoftheGST.Throughathree-stageprocessinvolvinginformationcollection,technicalassessmentandconsiderationofoutputs,theGSTproduceskeypoliticalmessagesandopportunitiesforenhancingaction,supportandinternationalco-operation.

GSTstandingintermsofmitigation,adaptation,andmeansofimplementationandsupportisintendedtoinformnationaleffortsinpreparingtheirnextNDCs–forinstance,the2023StocktakeinformstheNDCstobesubmittedin2025.

1.2.ENERGYSECTORANDNDCS

Giventhattheenergysectoraccountsforoverthree-quartersofglobalGHGemissionsglobally(UNFCCC,2023a),renewablesalongsideenergyefficiency,electrificationandotherenergytransitionmeasuresarekeytoachievingParisAgreementgoals.ItisthereforeimportantforcountriestointegrateambitiousenergysectortargetsandimplementationmeasuresintoNDCs.TheNDCsalsoneedtobealignedwithnationalandsubnationalenergytargets,policiesandplanstoincreasetheeffectivenessandcredibilityofboth,whichisalsoimportanttoreinforceclearsignalstoinvestors,projectdevelopersandotherplayersacrosstherenewablessupplychain(IRENA,2023b).

AccordingtotheUNFCCCSecretariat’slatestNDCsynthesisreport,allthesubmittedNDCsmentiontheenergysectorasakeyareaforreducingemissions,whilerenewableenergygenerationwasreferredtoin90%ofNDCs.Further,asof31October2023,theenergysectorcoverageinthecurrentNDCsareasfollows(IRENA,2023b,2023c;UNFCCC,2023a):

•Atotalof184partieshadincludedrenewableenergycomponentsintheirNDCs,ofwhich148hadaquantifiabletarget.Only12partieshadcommittedtoapercentageofrenewablesintheiroverallenergymixes.

•OftheUNFCCCparties,23%includedquantitativetargetsforthetotalshareofrenewableenergyinelectricitygenerationby2030.

•Quantitativetargetsforincreasingtotalrenewableenergycapacityby2030wereindicatedby15%ofparties.

•Gridimprovement(36%),energyefficiencyimprovement(33%)andshiftingtolow-orzero-carbonfuelsincludingbiofuelsandhydrogen(28%)werefrequentlyindicatedmitigationoptionsinNDCs.

•11•

IRENAMembers’surveyonNationallyDeterminedContributions

Toaccelerateanenergytransitionalignedwithclimateobjectives,thefirstGST-partoftheUAEConsensusasanoutputofCOP28-offeredanewspecificglobalgoaloftriplingrenewableenergycapacityanddoublingenergyefficiencyby2030inlinewiththeGlobalRenewablesandEnergyEfficiencyPledgeannouncedduringCOP28.ThePledgewasendorsedby133countries(COP28Presidency,2024)thatcommittedtotriplingrenewablesanddoublingannualenergyefficiencyimprovementsby2030atthegloballevel.

ThesignatorycountriesalsocommittedtoreflectingthisglobaltargetoftriplingrenewablesintheirnextNDCsubmissionsandtakingdomesticactionswithrelevantenablersinconsiderationofthedifferentnationalcircumstances.AsIRENAassessed,inajointreportforCOP28,thefollowingenablerswouldbeessentialfortheimplementationoftheGlobalPledge(COP28Presidencyetal.,2023):

•buildingelectricityinfrastructureandinvestinginmodernisationofgridsatscale;

•policiesandregulationsfacilitatingandincentivisingscaled-updeploymentofrenewablesandenergyefficiencymeasures;

•facilitatingtargetedpublicandprivateinvestmentinrenewablesandenergyefficiencybyadvancingpolicyandregulatoryframeworks;

•enablingstrategicrealignmentforresilientsupplychainsaswellasinstitutionalcapacitiesensuringskillsandcapabilitiestobuilddesiredenergysystemby2030;and

•expeditingstrongerinternationalcollaborationforurgentlyfosteringajusttransitionthroughcollectiveactionongovernance,investmentandinnovation.

However,thecommitmentsmadeasofOctober2023inNDCsarelessthanhalfofthatrequiredtotriplerenewablepowercapacity(IRENA,2024a).IRENA’sNDCsurveyfacilitatesfurtherambitiousclimateactionandcontributestoabetterunderstandingofthechallengesandopportunitiesofIRENAMembers’energysectorNDCs,partofwhichmayneedtobeaddressedthroughinternationalco-operation.Whilethesurveyoutcomemaynotshedin-depthknowledgeoftheseaspects–duetothequestionnaire-basedsurveymethodology’slimit