房地产行业研究周报：二手房成交环比改善各地保障房建设稳步推进

行业总市值(亿元)9,872.70行业总市值(亿元)9,872.70——n一周行情回顾n行业基本面n4月11日，住房城乡建设部在浙江省杭州市召开的保障性住房建设工作现场会透露，今年以来，各地正在加快推进配售型保障性住房建设，许多城市在明确保障对象标准、以需定建、用地保障、资金监管等工作机制上形成了一些好的经验做法。据住房城乡建设部相关负责人介绍，截至目前，全国已有65个城市报送2024年保障性住房建设计划和项目。保障房建设的推进有利于进一步促进房产行业发展。建议投资者可关注业绩稳健的房企如：越秀地产、华发股份、保利发展、招商蛇口、绿城中国。在物业板块，建议关注华润万象生活、中海物业、招商积余、保利物业、万物云、绿城服务等。n风险提示：销售不及预期，房地产政策放松力度不及预期，研究报告中使用的公开资料可能存在信息滞后或更新不及时的风险。的房地产个股分别为铁岭新城、我爱我家、迪马股份、万科A、中洲-2.58%-2.58%-7.13%-7.13%-5.60%-9.92%-9.61%-9.11%-10.11%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%来源：Wind、中泰证券研究所来源：Wind、中泰证券经验做法。据住房城乡建设部相关负责人介绍，截至目前，同标准的购房优惠。个人购买新建商品住房还取消特别印花税、额外印花税及取得印花税。有关法表3：本周新闻汇总部府来源：各地方政府网站、澎湃新闻、财经网、观点网、中泰发展”）发布2023年年度报告摘要。报累计签约销售金额达到175.2亿元，签约销限公司的全资子公司PolyRealEstateFinance2023年末，这些境外债券的存续规模累计销售楼面面积达45.86万平方米，累根据公告，该集团在3月份的总销售收入约为10.8亿元，销售面积约67,300平方米。今年1-3月，市和三四线城市成交面积同比增速为-38.4%、-43.8%和-50.9%-35.5%和-32.6%。均）一线同比（%）二线同比（%）0%三四线同比（%）合计同比（%）0%-10%-20%-30%-34.1%-46.7%.-45.1%-46.7%.-45.1%u-40.9%-41.2%-47.8%-47.8%-60%-70%2024/3/72024/3/142024/3/212024/3/282024/4/42024/4/11——合计同比（%）一线同比（%）20%10% 0%-10%-20%-30%20%10% 0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%2021/12/162021/12/302022/1/132022/1/272022/2/102022/2/242022/3/102022/3/242022/4/72022/4/212022/5/52022/5/192022/6/22022/6/162022/6/302022/7/142021/12/162021/12/302022/1/132022/1/272022/2/102022/2/242022/3/102022/3/242022/4/72022/4/212022/5/52022/5/192022/6/22022/6/162022/6/302022/7/142022/7/282023/12/212024/1/42024/1/182024/2/12024/2/152024/2/292024/3/142024/3/282024/4/11一线同比（%）二线同比（%）三四线同比（%）合计同比（%）0%-10%-20%-30%-37.1%-37.1%-46.3%.-42.9%u-43.9%-44.7%-46.3%-50%-53.6%-60%-70%2024/3/72024/3/142024/3/212024/3/282024/4/42024/4/11 合计同比（%）一线同比（%）20%二线同比（%）三四线同比（%）10%0%-20%-10%0%-20%-30%-50%-40%-30%-50%-60%2021/12/162021/12/302022/1/132022/1/272022/2/102022/2/242022/3/102022/3/242022/4/72022/4/212022/5/52022/5/192022/6/22022/6/162022/6/302022/7/142021/12/162021/12/302022/1/132022/1/272022/2/102022/2/242022/3/102022/3/242022/4/72022/4/212022/5/52022/5/192022/6/22022/6/162022/6/302022/7/142022/7/282023/12/212024/1/42024/1/182024/2/12024/2/152024/2/292024/3/142024/3/282024/4/11套，同比增速-44.9%，环比增速-5.5%；合计成交面积376.9万平方米，同比增速-增速为-43.1%、-46.9%和-43.6%，环比增速为-6.8%、5%和-15.5%；一线城市、二线17.8%和-17.1%。一线同比（%）二线同比（%）三四线同比（%）合计同比（%）200%150%100%50%26.6%0%0%-47.7%-47.7%-44.9%-100% 一线环比（%）二线环比（%）三四线环比（%）合计环比（%）200%150%100%80.3%50%31.1%5.4%7.0%-3.2%-21.7%5.4%7.0%-3.2%-21.7%-5.5%-16.4%-16.4%-43.0%-50%-43.9%-50%-100%一线同比（%）二线同比（%）三四线同比（%）合计同比（%）200%150%100%50%34.9%4.9%13.2%4.9%-71.2%-71.2%-50%-100%一线环比（%）二线环比（%）三四线环比（%）合计环比（%）200%150%100%88.6%50%-0.8%26.7%-0.8%8.1%.0%45.6%-0.1%-4.9%0%8.1%.0%45.6%-0.1%-4.9%-26.3%-28.9%-43.9%-26.3%-28.9%-43.9%-14.8%-44.7%-100%-46.7%-36.7%-44.7%-48.7%-31.7%47.3%-30.1%-46.7%-26.3%-38.7%-37.7%6-62.3%-68.7%-22.1%-24.7%7-42.3%-18.1%-43.6%-18.7%-29.3%-6.6%0--0-50.1%-44.6%58-43.7%-50.3%--4均）一线同比（%）合计同比（%）一线同比（%）合计同比（%）二线同比（%）10%一线同比（%）二线同比（%）60%40%5%三四线同比（%）合计同比（%）0%0% -5%-10%15%0% -9.7%--20%--20%-20%-25%-30%-35%-40%-45%-21.8%-22.4%2021/12/162021/12/302022/1/132022/1/272022/2/102022/2/242022/3/102022/3/242022/4/72022/4/212022/5/52022/5/192022/6/22022/6/162022/6/302021/12/162021/12/302022/1/132022/1/272022/2/102022/2/242022/3/102022/3/242022/4/72022/4/212022/5/52022/5/192022/6/22022/6/162022/6/302022/7/142022/7/282023/12/212024/1/42024/1/182024/2/12024/2/152024/2/292024/3/142024/3/282024/4/11-32.1%-32.6%-37.9%2024/3/72024/3/142024/3/212024/3/282024/4/42024/4/11来源：Wind、中泰证券研究所来源：Wind、中泰证券研究所 一线同比（%）二线同比（%）三四线同比（%）合计同比（%）10%0%-10%-13.8%-20%-25.4%-24.6%-30%-33.6%-33.6%-36.9%-40%-50%2024/3/72024/3/142024/3/212024/3/282024/4/42024/4/1160%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%二线同比（%二线同比（%）三四线同比（%）2021/12/162021/12/302022/1/132022/1/272022/2/102022/2/242022/3/102022/3/242022/4/72022/4/212022/5/52022/5/192022/6/22021/12/162021/12/302022/1/132022/1/272022/2/102022/2/242022/3/102022/3/242022/4/72022/4/212022/5/52022/5/192022/6/22022/6/162022/6/302022/7/142022/7/282023/12/212024/1/42024/1/182024/2/12024/2/152024/2/292024/3/142024/3/282024/4/11三四线城市成交面积同比增速为9.8%、-6.4%和-12.1%，环比增速为8一线同比（%）二线同比（%）三四线同比（%）合计同比（%）200%150%110.6%100%110.6%51.8%42.1%50%51.8%42.1%32.2%13.9%3.1%-9.9%13.8%13.9%3.1%-9.9%-3.5%-5.6%0%-1.7%-3.5%-5.6%-29.8%-50%-69.5%-100%一线环比（%）二线环比（%）140%120%100%80%一线环比（%）二线环比（%）140%120%100%80%60%40%20% 0%-20%-40%-60%-80%三四线环比（%）合计环比（%）6.8%-2.2%6.26.8%-2.2%6.2%12.3%2.5%0.4%119.80.4%%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%一线同比（%）二线同比（%）合计同比（%）三四线同比（合计同比（%）105.2%58.6%37.8%26.3%6.8%12.3%12.6%26.3%-4.6%-31.2%-4.6%-31.2%-70.0%一线环比（%）二线环比（%）三四线环比（%）合计环比（%）110.7%29.5%-3.4%6.2%11.1%-5.2%1.0%7.7%-51.4%140%120%100% 80% 60%40%三四线环比（%）合计环比（%）110.7%29.5%-3.4%6.2%11.1%-5.2%1.0%7.7%-51.4%-9.7%-16.1%-18.6%-2.7%9-26.1%-26.1%8-10.7%-13.6%-10.6%-23.1%4-9.6%-2.1%5-5.3%-0-19.3%5-0.1%4-4.3%1-7.7%-1.7%2合计库存面积（万平）合计去化周期（周）20,00019,90019,80019,70019,60019,50019,40019,30019,20019,10019,0002023/4/202023/5/112023/6/12023/6/222023/7/132023/8/32023/8/242023/9/142023/10/52023/10/262023/10/52023/4/202023/5/112023/6/12023/6/222023/7/132023/8/32023/8/242023/9/142023/10/52023/10/262023/10/52023/9/282023/9/282024/1/182024/2/82024/2/292024/3/212024/4/11180160140120100806040200二线城市库存面积（万平）二线城市去化周期（周）7,9007,8507,8007,7507,7007,6507,6007,5502023/4/202023/5/112023/6/12023/6/222023/7/132023/8/32023/8/242023/9/142023/4/202023/5/112023/6/12023/6/222023/7/132023/8/32023/8/242023/9/142023/10/52023/10/52023/10/52023/9/282023/9/282024/1/182024/2/82024/2/292024/3/212024/4/11200180160140120100806040200一线城市库存面积（万平）一线城市去化周期（周）8,8008,7008,6008,5008,4008,3008,2008,1002023/4/202023/5/112023/6/12023/6/222023/7/132023/8/32023/8/242023/9/142023/4/202023/5/112023/6/12023/6/222023/7/132023/8/32023/8/242023/9/142023/10/52023/10/52023/10/52023/9/282023/9/282024/1/182024/2/82024/2/292024/3/212024/4/11180160140120100806040200三线城市库存面积（万平）三线城市去化周期（周）3,5503,5003,4503,4003,3503,3003,2503,2003,1502023/4/202023/5/112023/6/12023/6/222023/7/132023/8/32023/8/242023/9/142023/4/202023/5/112023/6/12023/6/222023/7/132023/8/32023/8/242023/9/142023/10/52023/10/52023/10/52023/9/282023/9/282024/1/182024/2/82024/2/292024/3/212024/4/11250200150100500表27：17城库存面积及去化周期0.1%-0.3%-0.6%-0.1%-0.3%0--0.3%-0.1%-0.3%-0.6%--注：一线城市（4个）包括北京、上海、深圳和广州；二线城市（7个）包莆田、宝鸡和东营；除厦门、宁波采用住宅口径外其他城市均本周（4.1-4.7土地供给方面，本周供应土地1807.8万平方米，同比增速-2023/4/162023/4/302023/5/142023/5/282023/6/112023/6/252023/7/92023/7/232023/8/62023/8/202023/9/32023/9/172023/10/12023/10/152023/10/292023/11/122023/11/262023/12/242024/1/72024/2/42024/2/182023/4/162023/4/302023/5/142023/5/282023/6/112023/6/252023/7/92023/7/232023/8/62023/8/202023/9/32023/9/172023/10/12023/10/152023/10/292023/11/122023/11/262023/12/242024/1/72024/2/42024/2/182024/3/172024/3/31土地供应面积（万平）——同比增速（%）14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%3,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000土地供应均价（元/平）同比增速（%）200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%2023/4/302023/5/142023/5/282023/6/112023/6/252023/7/92023/7/232023/8/62023/8/202023/9/32023/9/172023/10/12023/10/152023/10/292023/11/122023/12/242024/1/72024/1/212024/2/42024/2/182024/3/32024/3/172024/3/3112,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00002023/4/162023/5/72023/5/282023/6/182023/7/92023/8/202023/9/102023/10/12023/10/222023/11/122023/12/32024/1/142024/2/42024/2/252024/3/172024/4/7土地成交面积（万平）2023/4/162023/5/72023/5/282023/6/182023/7/92023/8/202023/9/102023/10/12023/10/222023/11/122023/12/32024/1/142024/2/42024/2/252024/3/172024/4/7200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%3,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000土地成交金额（亿元）——同比增速（%）200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%-150%率楼面价（元/平方米）溢价率（%）2023/4/162023/4/302023/5/142023/5/282023/6/112023/6/252023/7/232023/8/62023/8/202023/9/32023/9/172023/10/12023/10/152023/10/292023/11/122023/11/262023/12/102023/12/242024/1/72024/1/212024/2/42024/2/182024/3/172024/3/314,0002023/4/162023/4/302023/5/142023/5/282023/6/112023/6/252023/7/232023/8/62023/8/202023/9/32023/9/172023/10/12023/10/152023/10/292023/11/122023/11/262023/12/102023/12/242024/1/72024/1/212024/2/42024/2/182024/3/172024/3/314,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000价率——一线溢价率（%）二线溢价率（%） 三四线溢价率（%）20%15%10%5%0%2023/4/162023/4/302023/5/142023/5/282023/6/112023/6/252023/7/92023/7/232023/8/62023/8/202023/9/32023/9/172023/10/12023/10/152023/4/162023/4/302023/5/142023/5/282023/6/112023/6/252023/7/92023/7/232023/8/62023/8/202023/9/32023/9/172023/10/12023/10/152023/10/292023/11/122023/11/262023/12/102023/12/242024/1/72024/1/212024/2/42024/2/182024/3/32024/3/172024/3/31-5%龙湖集团成都市郫都区16,077.3740,193.4329,140.23