ECDB：2024年全球电子商务市场 Global eCommerce Market 2024

STATEOFDIGITALRETAIL

GlobaleCommerce

Market2024

MarketGrowth,RevenueDrivers,TopCountriesandTopCategories:DiscoverwhattheeCommercemarketwilllooklikein2024.

)···.·.·········

9

9

TheGlobaleCommerceMarketWillReachUS$5,140Billionin2024,HavingGrownbyanAnnual15%Since2019

GlobaleCommerceMarket,inUS$Billion

5,140

4,650

CAGR:+15%

4,260

3,930

3,310

2,530

2019202020212022202320241

Notes:

2

Sources:

(1)Forecast.MarketrevenuerepresentsB2CsalesofphysicalgoodsincludingVAT.ItexcludesB2Bsales,C2Csales,returns,compensationfordamagedormissinggoods,anydiscountsgrantedandservices.Datashownisusingcurrentexchangerates.ECDBAnalysis.

GlobaleCommerceRevenueWillBeHigherThantheGDPofJapanby2024andSurpasstheGDPofIndiaby2028

eCommerceRevenueForecastComparedtoGDPForecastofSelectedCountries,inUS$Billion

2024:eCommercevs.Japan2026:eCommercevs.Germany2028:eCommercevs.India

+19%

6,125

5,182

5,136

4,286

7,110

5,944

+16%

GlobaleCommercerevenue1

GlobaleCommercerevenue1

GDPJapan1

GDPGermany1

GDPIndia1

GlobaleCommerce

revenue1

Notes:

3

Sources:

(1)ForecastforeCommerceRevenueandGDPinspecificyear.MarketrevenuerepresentsB2CsalesofphysicalgoodsincludingVAT.ItexcludesB2Bsales,C2Csales,returns,compensationfordamagedormissinggoods,anydiscountsgrantedandservices.ECDBAnalysis,InternationalMonetaryFund.

TheGlobaleCommerceMarketWillGrowbyMoreThan10%in2024,SurpassingBoththeGlobalEconomyandtheGlobalRetailIndustry

eCommerce,GDPandRetailGrowthForecastin2024

10.4%

4.1%

3.1%

GlobalGDPgrowthforecast

GlobaleCommerce

revenuegrowthforecast

Globalretailrevenuegrowthforecast

GlobaleCommercerevenuesarepredictedtogrowbyUS$490billionin2024crossingtheUS$5trillionthresholdforthefirsttimeinhistory.Whilethegrowthrateof10.4%islowerthantheaveragegrowthrateinrecentyears,theeCommercemarketisstillgrowingthreetimesfasterthantheglobaleconomyandtwiceasfastasthebroaderretailmarket.

Thegrowthinrevenuesisdrivenbythreefactors:growthofthe

retailmarket,inflationandtheshiftfromofflinetoonlinebusiness.

Withglobalretailgrowingby4%andglobalinflationestimated

atslightlyabove5%,theshifttoonlinebusinessaddsan

additional1-2%onaveragetoeCommercegrowth.

Withlowdouble-digitgrowth,theeCommercemarketisona

pathofnormalizationinlinewithpre-COVIDgrowthrates.In2020and2021,COVIDfuelledaperiodofhypergrowthforonlinebusinessesonthebackofofflineretail.Afterashortperiodoflowgrowthduetopost-COVIDconsolidationin2022and2023,the

industryisbackonitspreviousgrowthpath.

4

Sources:ECDBAnalysis,InternationalMonetaryFund,eMarketer.

eCommerceGrowthintheU.S.IsDrivenbyaGeneralGrowthinRetail,InflationandtheShiftFromOfflinetoOnlineBusiness

U.S.eCommerceGrowthComponents

8.5%

U.S.eCommerce

growth2024

Retailmarket

Inflation

Shiftonline

3.9%

2.0%

2.6%

Inflationrate2024

U.S.retailgrowth2024

Shift

online/offline

5

Sources:ECDBAnalysis,Ernst&Young,JPMorganChase.

COVID

Pre-COVID

Normalization

AfterFourYearsofStrongGrowthFluctuationDuetoCOVID,theU.S.eCommerceMarketIsEnteringaPhaseofGrowthNormalization

AveragedAnnualGrowthRatesoftheU.S.eCommerceMarket

HighGrowthHyperGrowthLowGrowthHighGrowth

2019

2018

2021

2022

2023

2024

2020

8.5%1

11.1%

6.4%

34.3%

Post-COVID

Notes:

6

Sources:

(1)Forecast.

ECDBAnalysis.

AfteraShortPost-COVIDSlump,GlobaleCommerceGrowthRatesAgainOutperformtheGlobalRetailGrowthRates

GrowthRatesoftheGlobaleCommerceMarketandtheGlobalRetailMarket,in%

31.0

22.2

18.5

15.1

12.7

9.8

10.4

8.6

9.2

7.5

8.0

6.9

4.1

4.5

3.9

3.8

3.4

8.5

3.2

3.0

3.3

-1.3

20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028

GlobaleCommercemarketGlobaltotalretailmarket

7

Sources:ECDBAnalysis.

COVID

16.1%

14.2%

Post-COVID

16.3%

15.5%

Pre-COVID

10.7%

9.6%

20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028

TheImportanceofeCommercetotheOverallRetailMarketContinuestoGrow,WiththeShareofOnlineRetailApproaching20%

eCommerceOnlineShareoftheTotalRetailMarket

Normalization

21.0%

20.2%

19.3%

18.3%

17.3%

8

Sources:StatistaMarketInsights,ECDBanalysis

CAGR:13%

CAGR:8%

CAGR:7%

1,442

1,416

981

955

800

690

20281

20281

20281

2023

2023

2023

UnitedStates

Europe

RoW2

ChineseandU.S.eCommerceMarketsWillGrowMoreThanEuropeUntil2028,ButBothAreStillOutpacedbytheRestoftheWorld

eCommerceRevenuesofSelectedCountriesandRegions,inUS$Billion

CAGR:9%

3,297

2,179

20281

China

2023

Notes:

9

Sources:

(1)Forecast(2)RestofWorld,includesrevenueofallcountriesandregionsnotnamedseparately.

ECDBAnalysis.

AsianCountriesMakeUp8outofthe10Fastest-GrowingeCommerceMarketsWithIndonesiaGrowingbyMoreThan30%in2024

Top10CountriesbyForecastedeCommerceGrowthRatein2024

30.5%

26.8%

22.9%

21.4%

22.1%

20.5%

19.9%19.9%

16.5%

17.2%

10.4%

IndonesiaMexicoThailandIranMalaysiaPhilippinesPeruIndiaIsraelVietnamGlobal

10

Sources:ECDBAnalysis.

GrowthRate2024,in%

●IND

.RoW2

PRTIRL·SAUPOLESP

CAN

.

CHLSWETUR

.

.AUS

●ITABRA

RUS

.

DEU

●KORJPN

●GBR

BEL

NZL

DNKNLD

.FRA

ChinaandtheUnitedStatesArebyFartheBiggesteCommerce

Markets,MakingUpMoreThanTwo-ThirdsoftheGlobalIndustry

eCommerceRevenueofSelectedCountriesin2023RelativetoGrowthRateandShareofGlobaleCommerceMarket,inUS$Billion

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

IDN

500billionUS$

PER

.

ISR

MYS

●MEX

THA

IRN●

SGP

PHL

/噪VNM

.

USA

CHN

FINAUTCHE

.

ARG

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.521.021.546.547.047.5

ShareofGlobaleCommerceRevenue,in%

.AsiaAmericasEuropeAustralia&OceaniaRoW

11

Sources:ECDBAnalysis.

12

WithourglobaleCommercecountryrankingsandmarketprofiles,youcanseewhereintheworldonlineshopping

revenuesaregrowingthefastest.

Diveintomarketsizes,spotemergingtrends,andcheck

whichonlineretailersareleadinginvariouscountries.Useourrevenuefigurestodiscoverthetopcountriesforyour

eCommercebusiness.

✓BusinessGrowth:Fuelyourinternationalexpansionbyidentifyinghigh-revenuecountrieswithourdata

analytics.

✓MarketInsights:Stayaheadbymonitoringmarket

trendsandtheonlineshareofspecificcountriesintheeCommercesector.

✓DataAnalytics:Exclusiveperformanceindicators,

highlightingtheportionofonlinesalesinrelationtotheoverallretailsector.

ViewOurCountryRankings

DiscovereCommerceMarketDataonMoreThan150CountriesinOurFilterableRankingsandDetailedProfiles

150+

Countries

30,000+

Markets

250+

Categories

BookaDemo

Furniture&

Homeware/417

FashionandElectronicsRemaintheBiggesteCommerceMarketsWorldwideGeneratingAlmostHalfofallRevenues

RevenueofeCommerceCategoriesin2023,inUS$Billion

CareProducts/460

Hobby&Leisure/622

Electronics/1,115

Fashion/1,278

Grocery/434

DIY/325

Notes:

13

Sources:

MarketrevenuerepresentsB2CsalesofphysicalgoodsincludingVAT.ItexcludesB2Bsales,C2Csales,returns,compensationfordamagedormissinggoods,anydiscountsgrantedandservices.Datashownisusingcurrentexchangerates.ECDBAnalysis.

DIY

CareProducts

Furniture2

Hobby&Leisure

Grocery

Electronics

Fashion

GroceryWillClaimaLargerShareoftheeCommerceMarketintheFuture,GrowingFasterThanAllOtherCategories

ShareofGlobaleCommerceMarketsin%

7.0%

7.0%

10.0%

9.0%

9.0%

9.0%

15.0%

12.0%

12.0%

7.0%

24.0%

23.0%

28.0%

28.0%

2017

20281

CAGRofeCommerceMarketsBetween2023and2028in%

DIY2

CareProducts

Furniture

Hobby&Leisure

Grocery

Electronics

Fashion

7.7

7.1

8.7

8.8

7.9

8.9

14.3

Notes:

14

Sources:

(1)Forecast(2)Furniture&Homeware.

ECDBAnalysis.

Germany

UK

France

Italy

CategoryMixBetweenCountriesCanDifferSignificantly,Withthe

GroceryShareinFranceBeingAlmostFourTimesLargerThaninItaly

eCommerceCategoryRevenueSharein2023,in%

25.0

21.4

6.0

24.3

9.9

8.3

5.2

28.6

16.7

12.4

15.6

9.6

9.4

7.4

17.3

13.3

19.5

22.3

6.2

9.3

12.1

18.5

21.9

5.2

24.7

11.6

9.2

8.9

FashionElectronicsGroceryHobby&LeisureFurniture&HomewareCareProductsDIY

15

Sources:ECDBAnalysis.

16

MarketDataonMoreThan250ProductCategories-Displayedin

FilterableRankingsandDetailedMarketProfiles

250+

Categories

RefineyourproductstrategywithourCategoryRanking.See

whichitemsareleadingtheonlineshoppingworldand

adjustyourbusinessonwhat'spopular,what'strending,

andwherethemarketisheaded-basedonourdata.By

30,000+

Markets

usingfilterseCommercerevenue,growthoronlineshare,the

listofcategoriescanbenarroweddownaccordingto

differenttypesofresearchquestions.

150+

Countries

✓StrategicData:Focuscategorieswithhighgrowth

potential,maximizingprofitandmeetingmarket

demands.

✓TrendAnalysis:Stayup-to-datewiththeeCommerce

sectorbyanalyzingdataonm