主题策略-减持新规影响几何

请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明减持新规影响几何？推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》《关于加强上市公《减持管理办法》基本保持《减持规定》的框架和主体内容，对市场反规则体系；二是严格规范大股东减持；三是有效防范绕道减持；四是细食品饮料、汽车、社会服务、家用电器等机构偏好的板块。值，为防止股东套现离场，通过规范减持，促使融资资金更能用于企业相关报告相关报告证券分析师：谢立昕 3 63.微观流动性 7 9 4 7 7 7 3 4表3：2004年至今各行业增减持变化 5表4：2004年至今各行业市盈率分位数变化 5表5：不同区间估值和股价与净减持相关系数 6表6：A股资金周度变动情况 8表7：行业资金变动情况 9表8：近四周陆股通行业流动情况 表10：主要行业/主题ETF份额变动情况 表12：近4周IPO和定增的行业 表13：近四周行业增减持变动情况 公司股东减持股份管理暂行的相关要求移至《上市公司董事、监事和高级管其变动管理规则》，并做好与《上市公司创业投优化大股东禁止减持的情形，明确控股股东、实际控制方应当持续共同遵守减持限制，法律、行政法规、中国继续遵守相关限制；明确司法强制执行、质押融资融券持方式的不同遵守《减持管理办法》，明确司法强制执要求上市公司大股东规范、理性、有序实施减持，充其中小股东的利益；要求上市公司董事会秘书定期《上市公司董事、监事和高级管理人员所持本公司股份及其变动管不得减持；明确董监高在集中竞价或者大宗交易披露；明确董监高离婚后双方持续共同遵守相将上市公司年度报告、半年度报告的窗口期调整为“公告前十五日是在于增减持更多是套利行为，即高买低卖，以及公司为稳定股价行为，即股价超跌时公司增持股份稳定市场信心400300200-10040003500300025002000表3：2004年至今各行业增减持变化申万行业2004年2005年2006年2007年2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年2024年合计 1,208.6054.5540.496.75-15.19-283.04-283.04-289.18-333.31-343.95-344.85-354.41-372.53-405.82-440.32-478.60-539.64-548.59-549.98-909.66-935.03-1,144.30-1,300.52-1,563.13-1,586.08-1,839.08-2,051.16-2,207.34-2,565.75-3,620.16-4,517.10-4,722.10-25.33-22.19-12.19-64.90-12.20-0.14-13.08-7.06-6.87-19.51-30.52-4.21-7.26-33.75-9.15-14.36-28.46-16.29-25.53-23.70-6.41-18.09-28.83-7.73-25.33-22.19-12.19-64.90-12.20-0.14-13.08-7.06-6.87-19.51-30.52-4.21-7.26-33.75-9.15-14.36-28.46-16.29-25.53-23.70-6.41-18.09-28.83-7.73-133.10-51.89-32.77-21.21-8.94-50.93-106.53-10.09-20.534.49-58.02-10.08-1.98-28.91-10.70-6.0417.84-12.38-8.53-11.13-17.18-15.23-26.38-16.45-6.62-14.70-7.71-4.79-80.37-91.15-11.56-115.35-20.94-55.65-61.19-32.40-38.59-39.41-28.25-9.006.27-19.32-2.27-0.00-13.443.29-14.7827.81-6.80-5.55-8.803.41-7.92-14.54-1.75-14.34-8.33-0.39-2.92-5.97-42.91-3.17-105.11-15.31-38.40-27.18-5.16-17.46-39.18-1.1322.320.005.262.7026.06-3.42-44.55-4.41-1.61-20.53-18.23-5.274.205.48-11.70-6.44-19.44-12.82-3.77-1.27-20.30-22.98-29.11-17.21-16.19-33.52-12.11-66.80-67.87-64.49-74.09-69.94-54.54-45.89-0.7327.00-4.00-9.03-0.58-8.01-6.70-0.74-3.88-6.28-44.09-11.24-6.34-91.23-18.07-22.18-5.08-15.41-66.53-14.12-24.04-23.67-56.34-10.81-62.26-33.31-57.75-36.95-51.39-83.59-48.00-39.96-44.40-21.21-115.713.89-113.88-54.38-24.96-38.07-31.92-11.90-58.17-41.607.88-42.95-34.72-88.53-46.84-77.36-131.75-192.69-327.59-312.60-89.07-119.92-300.94-429.10-502.48-447.49-829.96-922.15-72.7763.488.60-37.58-9.68-25.08-114.98-11.43-59.81-2.14-81.78-41.77-28.80-52.42-99.62-59.52-140.02-101.45-211.45-310.59-273.15-116.31-179.18-341.23-148.50-223.77-226.11-582.33-721.94-1,127.51-1,167.17229.89-8.1915.33-43.25-2.79-20.34-37.79-1.58-49.47-2.36-55.76-29.23-28.55-10.18-62.92-32.70-41.98-41.60-153.53-93.98-70.33-108.68-20.00-144.08-104.92-179.99-148.73-191.12-493.70-685.17-575.16188.88-3.48-8.63-19.89-7.75-2.58-50.74-2.63-14.04-5.28-3.14-24.09-43.22-1.56-40.73-10.77-21.04-23.96-36.90-26.28-30.36-31.32-57.45-91.00-53.71-74.26-70.66-79.66-162.44-108.76-114.95-204.7213.91-19.71-352.45-0.80-7.55-23.71-17.31-30.96-24.70-29.95-27.82-31.44-37.42-35.12-110.82-12.96-144.99-113.40-66.72-110.55-61.93-58.11-171.57-92.87-115.05-140.11-116.44-351.62-415.65-499.87-26.3960.6227.80-246.57-12.07-0.0911.20-22.793.53-14.02-5.394.91-0.753.3614.9317.135.9211.23-18.72-8.532.7924.41-46.14-33.22-54.39-25.30-34.173.00-177.53-57.77-157.3225.81-3.4325.76-41.76-0.92-1.40-9.333.19-6.86-15.6512.44-5.13-13.90-11.86-12.305.31-13.40-15.172.91-26.63-7.822.00-48.87-8.14-53.83-29.99-22.63-33.09-45.48-12.39-53.8866.487.9429.062.240.97-3.474.31-2.85-1.02-5.005.18-4.88-2.556.17-2.21-17.59-0.05-0.414.92-4.33-17.38-8.59-5.944.64-1.91-7.13-17.9862.50-61.6526.07-138.02-10.12-102.89-72.78-51.37-44.45-15.17-57.21-36.17-65.91-27.73-44.76-104.09-73.94-45.47-27.41-89.32-162.63-211.30-145.04-122.70-96.73-286.20-498.53-448.35-249.43-375.51-595.04126.6524.46-2.97515.2818.443.67219.82-89.10-23.33-4.3327.42-15.61-10.26-36.76-24.42-41.64-25.77-41.73-29.48-48.62-44.85-92.58-112.93-197.63-33.08-167.41-120.95-94.91-270.12-206.94-118.66314.78-38.76-27.79183.89-5.61-6.69-18.653.97-18.63-9.19-1.01-28.89-53.44-17.44-50.47-23.57-30.67-41.19-23.95-13.39-58.35-114.13-122.54-50.61-218.88-156.98-169.65-181.79-150.88-124.19-119.74586.02-57.768.01436.666.49-56.65-58.65-37.07-276.88-80.33-89.45-88.57-11.67-39.02-41.02-11.81-23.38-70.254.66-136.93-129.88-198.70-92.11-312.41-247.95-121.11-131.51-230.20-264.91-93.2615.2460.30-10.9754.2126.313.415.28-31.5115.28-17.6018.8519.7935.40-81.7218.16-32.72-42.9330.89-9.84-31.69-3.78-6.83-13.24-204.72-29.67-42.1027.139.68-146.74-53.54-4.51--17.84-公用事业17.84---石油石化--0.27-0.27-3.12综合3.12---美容护理---0.01-0.370.000.540.01-0.370.000.5422.60-2.295.030.000.190.4113.27-0.030.47---煤炭---0.93-0.00-0.93-0.000.43-26.523.7426.523.74-0.11商贸零售纺织服饰--环保--0.10-0.14-0.10-0.14-轻工制造--交通运输----家用电器----农林牧渔-----通信---0.49-0.05-0.217.890.49-0.05-0.217.89-0.099.71-22.06-1.50-0.85-0.76-0.94-0.50-4.56---国防军工--0.00-0.4010.430.00-0.4010.43-0.02有色金属--传媒---2.720.40-2.720.400.923.12机械设备-基础化工---电力设备---1.01-2.05-0.04-1.01-2.05-0.04-0.90-电子-医药生物-0.966.855.1-843.1-417.5-811.7-795.3-711.1-416.5-1032.4-1374.5-1858.5-918.3-424.2-750.3-3412.4-6496.0-5480.5-4171.3-3192.835.3-0.966.855.1-843.1-417.5-811.7-795.3-711.1-416.5-1032.4-1374.5-1858.5-918.3-424.2-750.3-3412.4-6496.0-5480.5-4171.3-3192.835.3-32,950.44表4：2004年至今各行业市盈率分位数变化申万一级银行公用事业石油石化房地产综合美容护理建筑装饰煤炭社会服务钢铁商贸零售纺织服饰环保建筑材料轻工制造交通运输家用电器农林牧渔通信食品饮料国防军工汽车有色金属传媒非银金融机械设备基础化工电力设备计算机医药生物200490.374.988.784.656.025.683.084.849.931.167.460.668.576.938.386.590.838.034.423.155.637.873.348.929.942.428.7200584.29.954.144.525.829.937.265.662.99.627.95.3200685.142.457.278.165.497.488.651.726.021.081.565.043.686.731.055.386.762.74.491.380.252.642.481.799.865.955.833.59.776.661.8200798.991.897.197.398.998.498.085.284.461.397.998.495.998.188.695.598.694.872.998.288.398.656.295.386.686.794.994.185.883.598.5200884.864.265.573.942.20.485.091.440.234.062.636.153.268.734.452.674.766.525.189.936.856.941.454.635.565.5200979.798.784.391.882.691.591.964.772.374.173.391.375.685.672.459.681.574.80.783.394.986.474.882.665.679.383.927.076.167.2201070.673.060.943.264.960.662.246.077.767.056.452.246.340.574.468.372.135.464.243.677.264.758.938.641.331.294.553.8201165.168.962.856.628.249.667.250.352.355.158.974.250.572.651.227.873.641.652.253.777.855.331.266.363.1201262.775.638.849.129.773.224.643.839.721.762.826.527.030.428.37.09.531.021.930.832.220136.552.027.10.077.032.824.23.852.446.448.85.339.528.90.326.120.040.347.166.352.033.451.936.220143.245.420.341.347.341.242.677.928.244.851.643.04.471.921.471.853.138.653.952.846.5201561.682.486.776.796.082.791.894.395.897.781.699.593.970.990.297.263.098.476.695.495.571.199.599.498.499.296.194.4201629.932.989.865.192.02.546.792.860.365.578.290.258.546.068.878.031.994.261.995.360.06.591.288.280.777.490.766.0201749.469.278.150.067.095.256.781.840.662.164.870.866.367.868.049.984.853.779.435.555.787.968.264.155.657.369.7201827.239.565.120.439.331.239.824.922.728.550.329.727.432.236.829.449.158.333.931.463.126.450.320.539.3201947.735.145.339.824.032.06.847.839.260.168.851.658.033.348.851.345.830.856.430.7202020.941.476.25.284.930.537.460.226.356.060.15.074.677.943.767.152.663.840.793.867.691.5202154.39.386.427.081.831.626.650.850.84.640.188.458.574.743.732.149.680.664.243.073.6202271.428.574.825.338.039.397.425.175.848.443.868.533.95.920233.658.435.737.866.984.963.864.442.035.720.537.934.949.580.20.551.465.588.048.320247.729.656.972.90.651.939.44.420.458.422.236.457.922.931.256.442.659.063.229.1上证指数87.970.084.195.578.789.762.947.911.03.60.775.845.855.327.536.137.046.734.728.737.8表s：不同区间估值和股价与净减持相关系数年度净减持和估值变化相关系数申万行业2004-至今2011-至今2011-2023 食品饮料-0.32-0.82-0.82 汽车-0.51-0.77-0.81 钢铁-0.46-0.77-0.77 社会服务-0.63-0.76-0.75 家用电器-0.14-0.71-0.70 美容护理-0.50-0.69-0.69 煤炭-0.31-0.65-0.66 纺织服饰-0.22-0.52-0.49 计算机-0.46-0.37-0.38 电力设备-0.22-0.39-0.35 机械设备-0.40-0.34-0.33 环保-0.21-0.36-0.31 有色金属-0.34-0.33-0.28 公用事业-0.23-0.25-0.25 非银金融0.38-0.25-0.24 国防军工-0.33-0.23-0.20 商贸零售-0.21-0.18-0.17 建筑材料-0.18-0.17-0.16石油石化-0.22-0.19-0.16年度净减持和股价变化相关系数申万行业2004-至今2011-至今2022-2023 电力设备-0.79-0.79-0.84 食品饮料-0.81-0.78-0.84 电子-0.81-0.80-0.84 医药生物-0.76-0.78-0.80 社会服务-0.78-0.74-0.79 机械设备-0.72-0.73-0.79 国防军工-0.69-0.75-0.76 汽车-0.69-0.67-0.75 家用电器-0.68-0.64-0.75 基础化工-0.63-0.68-0.74 美容护理-0.61-0.73-0.72 有色金属-0.43-0.52-0.68 计算机-0.75-0.59-0.60 非银金融-0.62-0.54-0.53 农林牧渔-0.52-0.44-0.46 石油石化-0.21-0.25-0.42 公用事业-0.36-0.41-0.41 交通运输-0.30-0.39-0.39 钢铁-0.14-0.37-0.35 建筑材料-0.45-0.35-0.34 纺织服饰-0.45-0.37-0.34 通信-0.36-0.20-0.23 传媒-0.44-0.24-0.19 环保-0.37-0.21-0.14 轻工制造-0.37-0.16-0.13银行0.11-0.12-0.12-0.07-0.07-0.11轻工制造-0.20-0.16-0.11医药生物-0.02-0.08-0.08-0.05 银行-0.21-0.04-0.05 交通运输0.10-0.08-0.05 传媒0.28-0.11-0.04 农林牧渔0.080.100.09 通信-0.040.100.17 基础化工0.080.210.24 建筑装饰0.140.470.50 综合0.260.540.54房地产0.160.840.87 商贸零售-0.23-0.020.04 煤炭0.090.280.17 建筑装饰0.230.470.49 综合0.270.500.51房地产0.350.530.56给予明确的处罚细则。通过复盘历史可得，减持DR007%中债国债到期收益率:2年%4.03.53.02.52.00万得全A换手率分位数均值中国:中债国债到期收益率:10年90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%2.53.03.54.04.53.微观流动性表6：A股资金周度变动情况分类石油石化石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备国防军工汽车家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔医药生物商贸零售社会服务美容护理计算机传媒通信电子环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料建筑装饰房地产银行非银金融综合陆股通ETF融资融券股权融资解禁增减持 0.30.5------ -0.6-0.70.0--8.7-7.0-2.8-5.5-0.60.1-0.1-0.1- 0.30.5------ -0.6-0.70.0--8.7-7.0-2.8-5.5-0.60.1-0.1-0.1--2.5 3.7---0.2---0.00.0--1.60.9---6.10.1--0.30.1--4.54.5-2.4-4.6 -3.2-0.9-5.2-12.32.1 9.45.76.6-0.00.0 3.40.1-2.33.122.0-0.0 17.68.65.4-47.3-1.1 -1.54.3-7.3-14.30.2 -22.7-2.89.8-29.60.4 -3.9-0.95.4-18.1-0.2 -2.2—-0.1--0.1 3.5—1.9-23.8-0.1 -9.51.61.6-62.70.01.1-0.25.6-0.10.0 -22.124.41.6-66.1-0.30.6—-1.8-0.3-0.5 -1.7—0.1--0.0 -1.7—0.5-2.60.3 -5.9-2.3-17.9-14.82.9 -10.28.3-1.1-0.1-0.21.51.9-5.5 -6.611.8-11.7-136.8-1.1-1.64.4-17.33.7-2.4-0.0--4.4-17.33.7-2.4-0.0-----3.9-------0.5—-0.1---沪股通净买入亿元深股通净买入亿元陆股通净买入沪股通净买入亿元深股通净买入亿元陆股通净买入亿元2,0006005006005001,6004001,40030020020001,000800-100600-200400-300-400200-4000-50002020-06-242021-06-242022-06-242020-06-242021-06-242022-06-242023-06-24表8：近四周陆股通行业流动情况 申万一级20240430202405102024051720240524近四周合计趋势图 电力设备47.0-13.1-1.117.- 公用事业10.75.4-2.636.149.6- 非银金融32.00.912.03.948.8 食品饮料11.841.4-1.8-9.541.9 医药生物34.719.48.7-22.140.7---. 有色金属18.68.1-3.19.433.0电子15.9-6.320.8-6.6 建筑材料1.14.65.111.021.8 轻工制造4.41.86.43.516.1 基础化工13.27.0-2.1-3.2 农林牧渔5.36.31.91.1 机械设备-9.915.04.23.412.7..-- 交通运输3.55.50.42.411.8 煤炭5.02.2-0.34.511.3 石油石化8.21.5-1.50.38.5 家用电器5.8-2.76.6-3.9- 环保1.85.0-0.6-0.65.7 美容护理2.92.80.5-1.74.6 纺织服饰2.32.30.6-2.23.0 建筑装饰-2.75.81.6-1.63.0 通信18.2-11.9-5.91.5- 综合0.5-0.40.0-0.5-0.4 社会服务1.5-1.20.5-1.7-0.8 商贸零售-1.7-1.20.50.6-1.8 钢铁-2.4-1.41.30.5-1.9 国防军工-1.4-3.31.2-1.5-4.9-.r- 计算机-6.3-11.56.6-5.9-17.1 汽车-1.4-15.98.6-22.7-31.3传媒-12.3-15.5-3.1-10.2-41.12,0001,50002,0001,5000偏股基金亿份平均认购时间天募资额/偏股基金亿份平均认购时间天募资额/募集目标右4030200100%80%60%40%20%0%2024/04/302024/05/13002000-100偏股型基金份额收盘价60,00056,00054,00052,0002021/09/102022/09/102023/09/103,8003,4003,2003,00002020/1/12021/1/12022/1/120232024/4/302024/5/102024/5/172024/5/240-50-100股票型债券型商品型货币型跨境型宽基指数2024/4/30ETF份额2024/5/10（亿份）2024/5/172024/5/24ETF变动2024/4/302024/5/102024/5/172024/5/24上证50518.76367.13321.71865.472158.201682.71509.46239.45239.45160.14502.70357.11302.82867.20867.202138.501689.95508.43237.43176.32487.11354.94295.18865.722121.701694.43508.04245.47197.38495.26347.12283.26873.39873.392134.691705.39507.79242.37210.612.00%6.97%0.21%0.59%0.25%-0.36%0.67%2.84%-3.10%-2.73%-5.87%0.20%-0.91%0.43%-0.20%-0.84%10.11%-3.10%-0.61%-2.52%-0.17%-0.79%0.27%-0.08%3.39%11.94%-2.20%-4.04%0.89%0.89%0.61%0.65%0.65%-0.05%-1.26%6.70%中证1000创业板指沪深300科创50科创创业50MSCI中国A50表10：主要行业/主题ETF份额变动情况行业/主题2024/4/30ETF份额2024/5/102024/5/172024/5/24ETF变动2024/4/302024/5/102024/5/172024/5/24有色金属128.94201.81138.10135.90135.90142.00144.65126.66202.93202.93137.14133.53141.09143.24128.28201.59135.84135.65141.00142.54133.98210.14135.67139.06139.44141.520.19%-1.77%0.55%-0.66%4.44%4.24%电力设备新能车-0.03%-0.70%-0.95%-0.12%新能电池-074%-174%251%新能源-0.35%-0.64%-0.06%-1.11%碳中和-0.70%-0.98%-0.49%-0.72%151.551842.07142.91262.61262.61150.381821.17133.65262.22144.061806.82126.14266.92142.701831.24125.92268.52-0.34%-0.23%-2.92%-0.40%-0.77%-1.13%-6.48%-0.15%-4.20%-0.79%-5.62%-0.94%-0.17%0.60%医药生物农林牧渔食品饮料TMT304.22168.94154.99984.06309.46168.64156.49992.89311.55166.71158.041003.27312.85164.38166.391015.07-0.31%-0.12%-0.39%-0.18%0.97%0.90%0.68%-1.15%0.99%0.42%-1.40%5.28%计算机传媒国防军工262.77262.77357.36363.37872.03111.51259.21356.23374.11885.93109.25265.27350.62374.99889.56105.64269.59346.07373.27887.16109.33109.33-1.36%2.34%-0.05%-0.18%-1.17%0.09%-0.32%2.96%2.96%-2.03%-1.57%0.23%0.41%-3.30%-1.30%-0.46%-0.46%-0.27%3.49%非银金融银行-1000申万一级20240430202405102024051720240524近四周合计趋势图有色金属-22.0食品饮料-7.7-15.46.6房地产-6.0钢铁0.36.0-5.45.4公用事业--8.74.5银行-3.4-基础化工-5.6-5.2-5.24.2纺织服饰0.1-0.12.8-0.2-0.12.6轻工制造-1.1-0.4农林牧渔-0.7-3.4--0.10.8---.-交通运输3.24.4-0.8-7.0-0.2商贸零售--1.8-1.2社会服务-1.90.6-0.30.1-1.6■----3.5-1.3-2.45.4-1.8环保-1.2-0.4-0.3-0.7-2.6-4.05.2-0.5-5.5-4.9机械设备-4.1-1.0-2.3-6.2石油石化-2.4-0.52.0-6.1-7.0-4.64.4-1.6-7.3-9.0建筑材料-2.9-2.3-1.1-2.8-9.2传媒-4.9-5.3-1.1-9.4计算机4.6-9.8-17.9-12.2建筑装饰0.9-1.0-7.9-5.5-13.5煤炭-3.5-4.7-1.6-4.6-14.5非银金融5.63.1-7.0-17.3-15.6----15.8-0.7-4.5-11.7-32.62022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-05配股募集资金（亿元）定增募集资金（亿元）配股募集资金（亿元）定增募集资金（亿元）1000.00800.00600.00400.00200.000.00表12：近4周IPO和定增的行业IPO2024/4/302024/5/102024/5/172024/5/24合计定增2024/4/302024/5/102024/5/172024/5/24合计石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备国防军工家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔医药生物商贸零售社会服务美容护理计算机传媒通信环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料建筑装饰房地产银行非银金融综合-----3.573.57--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3.053.05------------------------------6.62------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备国防军工汽车家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔商贸零售社会服务计算机传媒环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料房地产银行综合石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备汽车家用电器石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备国防军工汽车家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔商贸零售社会服务计算机传媒环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料房地产银行综合石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备汽车家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔医药生物商贸零售社会服务美容护理计算机传媒环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料建筑装饰房地产银行非银金融综合8060400未来四周预计解禁市值合计亿元800600200040040004003003500200300002500-1002500表13：近四周行业增减持变动情况净增持石油石化2024/4/302024/5/102024/5/172024/5/240.77--0.00--0.22-6.38-0.612.05-