14-10 投资项目敏感性分析的方法

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,甲投资项目敏感性分析模型,,,,,,,,,,,

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,数据输入,,,,,,,,,,,

,固定资产投资额（万元）,"5,000",,,,,,,,,,

,其中：第0年投资额（万元）,"3,750",,,,,,,,,,

,第1年投资额（万元）,"1,250",,,,,,,,,,

,项目建设期（年）,1,,,,,,,,,,

,项目经营期（年）,9,,,,,,,,,,

,经营期年销售收入（万元）,"3,000",,,,,,,,,,

,经营期年固定费用（万元）,"1,200",,,,,,,,,,

,经营期初铺底流动资金（万元）,100,,,,,,,,,,

,固定资产折旧年限（年）,10,,,,,,,,,,

,第10年末固定资产回收（万元）,500,,,,,,,,,,

,所得税税率,25%,,,,,,,,,,

,折现率,15%,,,,,,,,,,

,方案输出,,,,,,,,,,,

,项目,建设期,,经营期,,,,,,,,

,,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

,1.现金流入,-,-,"3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000","3,600"

,1.1销售收入,,,"3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000","3,000"

,1.2回收铺底流动资金,,,,,,,,,,,100

,1.3期末固定资产处置收益,,,,,,,,,,,500

,2.现金流出,"3,750","1,350","1,525","1,525","1,525","1,525","1,525","1,525","1,525","1,525","1,525"

,2.1固定资产投资,"3,750","1,250",,,,,,,,,

,2.2付现的固定费用,,,"1,200","1,200","1,200","1,200","1,200","1,200","1,200","1,200","1,200"

,2.3所得税,,,325,325,325,325,325,325,325,325,325

,2.4辅底流动资金,,100,,,,,,,,,

,3.净现金流量,"-3,750","-1,350","1,475","1,475","1,475","1,475","1,475","1,475","1,475","1,475","2,075"

,4.累计净现金流量,"-3,750","-5,100","-3,625","-2,150",-675,800,"2,275","3,750","5,225","6,700","8,775"

,5.折现系数,1.0000,0.8696,0.7561,0.6575,0.5718,0.4972,0.4323,0.3759,0.3269,0.2843,0.2472

,6.折现净现金流量,"-3,750","-1,174","1,115",970,843,733,638,555,482,419,513

,7.累计折现净现金流量,"-3,750","-4,924","-3,809","-2,839","-1,995","-1,262",-624,-70,412,832,"1,344"

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,净现值-NPV（万元）,"1,344.47",,,,,,,,,,

,内含报酬率-IRR,20.92%,,,,,,,,,,

,静态投资回收期（年）,4.46,,,,,,,,,,

,动态投资回收期（年）,7.14,,,,,,,,,,

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,敏感系数,,,,,,,,,,,

,变动幅度,投资额,净现值,年销售收入,净现值,年固定费用,净现值,,,,,

,,,"1,344.47",,"1,344.47",,"1,344.47",,,,,

,20%,"6,000.00",480.81,"3,600.00","3,211.61","1,440.00",597.62,,,,,

,10%,"5,500.00",912.64,"3,300.00","2,278.04","1,320.00",971.04,,,,,

,0,"5,000.00","1,344.47","3,000.00","1,344.47","1,200.00","1,344.47",,,,,

,-10%,"4,500.00","1,776.30","2,700.00",410.90,"1,080.00","1,717.90",,,,,

,-20%,"4,000.00","2,208.13","2,400.00",-522.67,960.00,"2,091.33",,,,,

,敏感系数,-3.21,,6.94,,-2.7