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Deloitte。
2024USretailindustryoutlook:
Lookingforloyaltyinallthe
rightplaces
Rekindlingprofitableloyaltythroughexperiences,
personalization,andtrust
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
2
Contents
Introduction
3
OpportunityNo.1:Leanintoloyaltyprograms
6
OpportunityNo.2:Enhanceomni-experience
throughin-storeinvestments
7
OpportunityNo.3:Driveindividualengagement
atscalewithtrustworthyAI
9
Conclusion
10
Appendix
11
3
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
Introduction
Thelasttwoyearshavebeenanythingbutordinary.Consumerswitnesseda40-yearinflationaryhighinJune2022and11FederalReserveratehikesbyJuly2023.Giventhisvolatility,it’sreasonabletoassumethatconsumers’collectivepsychewouldbebruised
andtheywouldretreatfromthemarketplace.
However,consumershaveendured,surprisinganalystsby
challengingconventionalwisdom.Infact,consumerscontinuetheirconsumptionbinge,withsomebenefitingfromwageincreaseswhileothersarepresumablyburningthroughsavingsandaccumulatingdebtevenaseconomicuncertaintycontinuestoloom.Will2024
finallysignaltheendofthisspendingspree?
Expertopinionsvary.Economistsareencouragedthatmoderatinginflationandatightjobmarketwillsupportcurrentconsumptionrates,thoughthoseratesmayslowdown(seebelowformore
aboutoureconomicforecast).ButretailersandWallStreetanalysts
remainuncertainthatdebt-loadedconsumersfacingacost-of-living
squeezecanmaintaintheirrecentspendingtrends,especiallyon
discretionarygoods.1Onethingiscertain:Inflationhasleftitsmark.
DespiteinflationapproachingtheFederalReserve’stargetrateof2%inthelastsixmonths,threeinfourconsumersremainconcerned
aboutrisingprices.2Withthisinflationmentalitylockedin,consumerbehaviorhasbeenconfounding—evenforseasonedretailers3—
asconsumersconsidertrade-offs,tryoutthecompetition,andhuntforthebestdeals.
Asretailersfaceanuncertain2024economicoutlook,focusing
ontrustcouldleadtoprofitableloyalty.
USEconomicForecast[i]
AnotefromDeloitteUSEconomistsDannyBachmanandAkrurBarua:
TheUSeconomyseemstohaveavoidedarecessionevenasinflationhasdropped.Thisisgoodnews,especiallyatatimewhengeopoliticaltensionsarerising,growthinkeyUSeconomicpartnersisslowing,andthereisuncertaintyoverbudgetfunding.
Consumershavebenefittedfromrisingwagesduetoastronglabormarketanddeclininginflation.Theyhavealsodrawn
downtheirpandemic-erasavingstofundmorepurchases.Thisdipinpersonalsavings,however,willweighonconsumerspendingin2024–2025.Inaddition,consumersfaceheadwindsfromhighrents,risinghouseprices,andrepaymentofstudentloandebt.
Twokeytrendswillshapethefuturebusinessenvironment:tighterlabormarketsandhigherlong-terminterestrates.First,slowlaborforcegrowthandcontinuedhighdemandrequirecompaniestoofferhigherwagestolower-skilledworkersandtobemoreimaginativeabouthiring.
Second,long-terminterestratesareunlikelytoreturntothelowsofthelate2010s.TheslowingofChina’s
savingsgrowth,aneedforlargeinvestments(publicorprivate)toaddressclimatechange,andeffortsto
buildsupplychainresiliencywilllikelykeepcapitaldemandsstrong.
Deloitte’sbaselineforecastanticipatescontinuedgrowthinconsumerspendingatarateslightlybelowGDPgrowth(figure1intheappendix)duetofallinginflation,lowunemployment,andincreasing
productivitygrowth.Theaftermathofthepandemicledtoashiftinconsumerspendingpatterns,withthedollarvalueofdurablegoodsincreasing43%vs.a24%riseinspendingonservicessinceQ42019.Thisisunlikelytocontinue,withtheforecastsuggestingaslowergrowthtrajectoryfordurablesspendingrelativetoconsumptionandincomeoverthenextfiveyears.
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
4
Istherealoyaltycrisis?
Thepandemic-inducede-commercesurgeandsupplychain
disruptioncausedaloyaltycalamity.Threeinfourconsumerstestednewbrandsandstoresastheyfacedemptyshelves.4Whenlife
begannormalizing,retailersfocusedonenticingcustomersbacktotheirstoresandkeepingthemintheso-calledfamily.Then
inflationhit.
Areyouawinner?
Whowinstheincrementaldollarinaslowergrowth,inflation-bitconsumerenvironment?Thedata(figure1)suggestsdiscountretailers,massmerchants,andclubstoresareedgingout
specialtyformats.
One-halfofretailexecutivesexpectconsumerstovaluepriceoverloyaltyin2024.5Thefactthatthenewe-commercediscountentrant,Temu,wasthemostdownloadedAppleiPhone®appintheUnitedStatesin20236suggeststheirviewisnotunfounded.
Two-thirds(64%)ofretailexecutivesalsoexpectinflation-wearyconsumerstopurchasefewergoods—somethingthatalso
concernsconsumerpackagedgoods(CPG)companiesastheypivottoprofitablevolume.7ManyCPGcompanieshavesuccessfullyincreasedpricesinthepastfewyears,butthatlevermayhave
runitscourse.
Figure1.Consumersspendingatdiscountretailersincreasedsignificantlyyear-over-year
Discount
Mass
Club
Electronics
Footwear&apparel
Off-price
Homeimprovement
Sportinggoods
Department
-19.9%
+26%
+10%
+4%
19.4%
+3%
+4%
+7%
27.0%
+0%
+6%
+13%
16.7%
-1%
-12%
+4%
23.0%
-4%
-1%
+18%
-2.5%
-5%
-8%
+12%
-2.6%
-7%
-10%
+7%
30.5%
-9%
-10%
+6%
22.8%
-11%
-8%
+29%
2022-20232021-20222020-20212019-2020
YoY%growthbyRetailSubsector,October–November2019–2023
Source:AffinitySolutions,Inc.–DeloitteInSightIQAnalysis,October–November2021–2023;
inclusiveofinflationaryimpacts.
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
5
Whatdrivesloyalty?
Asconsumersfocusonprice,whatisbehindafairprice?Thereisapositiverelationshipbetweenbrandsthatconsumersratedashavingthemostreasonablepricesandtrust.Forexample,thetopfourautobrandsratedforpricingfairnessscored1.4timeshigherontrustthantheindustryaverage.8Trustedcompaniesfinanciallyoutperformtheirpeersbyuptofourtimes,andcustomerswhotrustabrandare88%morelikelytobuyagain.9Astrustimproves,customersare1.9timesmorelikelytodefendabrandagainst
criticism.10Inshort,trustdrivesgreaterloyalty.
Whocaresaboutloyalty?
Inourexplorationofoutperformingretailers,weseeafocusonrekindlingloyalty.
Weanalyzedthereturnonassets(ROA)anddebt-to-EBITDAratioduringFY2020-22forthetop39US-basedretailers(seeappendixtables1–3formoredetailsonourfinancialanalysis).11Overthese
turbulentyears,theoutperformersweidentifiedgrewprofitably,ensuredhealthydebtlevels,andprioritizedloyalty.
Outperformersbestedtheirindustrypeersinrevenuegrowth,margins,andreturnoninvestedcapital.Ouranalysissuggests
theyweremoreefficientatassetutilizationandcapitalallocation.Theyalsoeffectivelyreprioritizedinvestmentsbasedonnew
opportunitiesandthreats.Andseveralleanedintooptimizingtheiroperationsthroughmodernizedtechnologies.
Outperformersalsomentionedloyaltyandassociatedelementsliketrust,engagement,retention,netpromoterscore,andlifetimevalue1.25timesmorefrequentlyinearningscallsthantheirunderperformingpeersfromJanuary2020toDecember2022.12
Eightin10retailexecutivesfromoutperformingcompaniessaidtheircustomerloyaltywaswellabovetheindustryaverageoverthepastthreeyears,comparedtofivein10underperformingcompanies.13
Ouranalysisalsoindicatesthatcustomerloyaltyisanimportantdifferentiatorforoutperformers.Most(65%)retailexecutivesfromoutperformersexpectrevenuegrowthof5%ormorein2024,
while71%ofexecutivesfromunderperformersexpect1%to4%growth.14Lookingahead,analystsexpecttheseoutperformerstobeapproximately2.6timesmoreprofitablethantheirretailpeersoverthenexttwoyears(seeappendixtable2).
Whileoutperformersdomanythingsright,profitableloyaltyisakeyfocus.
Rekindlingprofitableloyaltyin2024andbeyond
Withbargain-huntingconsumersskippingfromsourcetosourceandcustomeracquisitioncostsincreasing222%inthepastdecade,15loyaltyprogramsremainahottopic.Andwiththeopportunitytoutilizefirst-persondatafromloyaltyprogramstocreateadditionalrevenue,it’snowonderretailexecutives’mostcitedgrowth
opportunityfor2024wasstrengtheningloyaltyprograms.16
Basedonwhatwearehearingandseeing,2024willbetheyeartorewritetheloyaltyplaybookbyputtingtrustatthecenter.Weseethreekeyopportunities:
•Leanintoloyaltyprograms
•Enhanceomni-experiencethroughin-storeinvestments
•DriveindividualengagementatscalewithtrustworthyAI
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
6
OpportunityNo.1:Leaninto
loyaltyprograms
Inthecompetitivelandscapeforconsumers’incrementaldollars,
retailersfacecompetitionnotonlyfromotherretailformatsbutalsofromleisuretravelasconsumerscontinuetoprioritizeexperiences.Additionally,householdsreplenishingtheirsavingsaccountsposesanotherchallenge,emphasizingtheopportunityforretailersto
strategicallycraftloyaltyprogramstobuildtrustandstandoutinthecurrentmarketdynamics.
Onaverage,nearlytwo-thirdsofUSconsumersbelongtobetweenoneandfiveloyaltyprograms.17However,mostconsumersuse
50%orlessoftheirmemberships,18sothechallengeforretailersisdevelopingengagingprogramsthatconvertmembersinto
users,andinturn,createprofitableloyalty.Arecentstudyfoundthatcustomerswhobelongedtoaretailbrand’sloyaltyprogramreportedanaverageof61%highertrustinthatbrandthannon-
loyaltyprogrammembers,19whileaconsumerindustrycasestudyfoundthatincreasingtrustwithexistingloyaltyprogrammemberscouldpotentiallyboostannualspendingby30%.20Thesegainswereprimarilyattributedtodeployingpersonalizedexperiencesatscale.21
Someretailershavehomedinonthisopportunity.Dillard’s
outperformedmanyotherdepartmentstorechainsinFY2020–22bydrivingcustomerloyaltythrougheffectivemerchandisingwithastrongportfolioofownedprivate-labelandexclusivebrands,22personalizedin-storecustomerservice,andhighemployeeengagement.23Ulta
Beautygrewitsactiveloyaltyprogrammembersfrom30.7millioninFY2020to40.2millioninFY2022,derivingmorethan94%ofitsannualsalesfromthesemembersinbothyears.24Asthecompanyconsidersitsloyaltyprogramakeydriverofsuccess,itlaunchedarevampedprograminJanuary2024withadditionalperksandamorepersonalizedbirthdaybenefit.25
For2024,webelievethatretailershaveanopportunitytoattainprofitableloyaltythroughpersonalization,co-branding,anddatamonetization:
Statustiering:Tieringbycustomerloyaltyallowsretailerstoofferadditionalperkstotheirtoptierinamorefinanciallyviablemanner.Manyretailersdothispublicly,andconsumersunderstandthebenefitsoftheirstatus.Consumersarealsoseekingtieredprograms,with
62%sayingtieredprogramsareimportantfeatures.26Whiletieringprogramsarenotnew,weseemoreinvestmentsoccurringbehindthescenesthattakeamorescientificapproachtosegmenting.Thisincludesprovidingdifferentoffers,benefits,andcommunicationtohighertiersandworkingtowardmigratingpeopleup.Thisstrategyhasbeenasuccessforoneretailerthatsawa98%year-over-yearretentionratefromitstop-tierloyaltymembers.27Seven-in-10outperformers
sayconsumers’expectationsfromfreeloyaltyprogramswillincrease(versusfour-in-10underperformers),indicatingthattieringmaybeawaytorewardthemostloyalconsumers.28
Co-brandingbenefits:Retailersshouldconsiderlookingfor
aportfolioofbenefitssothattheretailer(orthebrand)isnot
necessarilyresponsibleforallthebenefitsprovided.Forexample,since2021,Targethasofferedbenefitslinkedtopartnershipswiththeirstore-within-a-storeformatsfromUltaandApple.These
partnershipsallowloyaltymemberstoearn“UltaBeautyRewards”
aswellas“TargetCircle”benefitswhentheypurchaseUltaBeautyitemsatTarget(oncetheylinktheirloyaltyaccounts).Targetalso
offersitsmembersfreetrialsonvariousAppleservices(e.g.,AppleTV+®,AppleMusic®,iCloud+℠,etc.).29Similarly,loyaltymemberscanearn“SephoraBeautyInsider”pointsaswellas“Kohl’sRewards”
forSephorapurchasesmadeattheirstore-within-a-storeformatatKohl’s.30Thekeyforconsumersisflexibility:Sixin10consumersbelieveearningandredeemingpointswithbothpartnersis
important.31Retailersshouldalsoconsiderpotentialbenefitsfromjointpromotionswithtravelloyaltyprogramsinvolvingairlines,
hotels,orrestaurants.Arecentpollindicatedthatoveraquarter
ofpeopleplanningtobuyapparelwerepreparingforatrip.32By
co-brandingthebenefits,retailerscangetgreaterexposureandplugintoabroadersetofconsumerswhileprovidingexcitingbenefitswith
sharedcosts,potentiallyimproving
theprogram’sprofitability.
Monetizingdata:Some58%ofretailexecutivessaidthey’re
makingmoderate-to-majorinvestmentsinbuildingorexpandingadditionalrevenuestreams.33WiththeintroductionofApple’s
iOS™14.5in2021,themajorityofusersoptedoutofapptracking,34openingopportunitiesforbrandstostepinwherethird-partydata
hadoncedominatedthroughretailmedianetworks(RMNs:digitaladvertisingplatformsownedbyretailersthatbrandscanleveragetoreachconsumersthroughtheassetsoftheretailers).35Thesecanbeextremelyvaluable,particularlywhenaretailerhasthescaleofconsumerandshopperinformationintermsofdigitalandin-storevisits,andtheyhavetheextrafidelityofmanyofthosecustomersbeingpartofaretailer’sloyaltyprogram.Nearlytwo-thirdsofretailersshareorplantoshareloyaltydatawithRMNadvertisers.36Theseadvertisersvaluetheaudiencesthatretailerscanprovide,especiallywhentheyincludedetailsaboutloyalsegmentsandcandemonstratethereisadirectcorrelationbetweenloyaltyandpropensitytowardaparticularbrandorbehavior.Forexample,WalmartConnect
(“aclosed-loopsystemthatintegratesonlineandin-storebehaviortobuildacomprehensivepictureofWalmartcustomers”)growingtheirQ4FY2023advertisingrevenueby41%year-over-year.37
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
7
OpportunityNo.2:Enhanceomni-
experiencethroughin-storeinvestments
Thedigitalaccelerationfromthepandemicwasaboonforonline
andomnichannelshopping.Techupgradeshelpedwithsomeoftheshortfallsoftheonlineexperience,fromfittoenvisioningproductsinhomes.Socialmediaandinfluencersbroughtproductstolifeinshortvideocontent.Digitalwalletsandnewlastmileandreturnoptions
expanded,creatinglessfrictionforconsumerstoclickandcollect.
Despitetheseadvances(andhowtiredthetopicmayfeel),acohesive,consistentomni-experienceisoftenlacking,potentiallyerodingtrust.
Omnichannelinconsistenciesandfailedexecutionarepotentially
detrimentaltoloyalty.Threein4customerssaytheyaremoreloyal
tostoreswithconsistentcustomerserviceandexperiences.38A
reviewof145companies’omnichannelcapabilitiesduringCyberWeek(November21–23,2023)showedwhileBOPIS(buyonline,pickup
in-store)andBORIS(buyonline,returnin-store)werewidelyavailable,onlyonein10offeredalternativedeliverypickup,andathirdfailedtoindicatehowlongitwouldtaketoreceivearefund.Shippingwasalsoasorespot;byDecember5,onlyathirdlistedshippingcutofftimesforChristmasarrival.Andwhenwetestedtheclaimsof17companiesofferingon-timedeliveryofholidaygiftspurchasedonDecember
19,nearlyone-quarteroftheholidaydeliveryordersarrivedafterDecember24.39
Whenweexaminedtrustinvariouschannels,customerspurchasingin-storeindicatedthelowesttrustscores.40Interestingly,despitelowertrustscoresthandigitalchannels,physicalchannelsarethemost
preferredmediumofengagement,indicatingasignificantopportunityforbrandstohelpboosttrustamongaconsiderablefractionoftheircustomerbase.
Enhancingthein-storeexperiencewasatop-citedgrowth
opportunityfordrivinggrowthin2024(figure2).41Retailersarefacingunprecedentedheadwindsfromlaborcostsandavailability,aswell
aschallengesaroundshrink(seeappendixfigure2foradditional
challenges/opportunities).Theseissuesareconvergingwithpricing
pressureandhighcustomerexpectations,forcingretailerstodomorewithless—adverselyaffectingthecustomerexperience.Ithascreatedasignificantshiftinhowretailersthinkabouttheirstores,including
howtomakeassociatesmoreproductivewhilecreatingamore
consistentexperienceforshoppers,howautomationcanhelp,andhowtoreduceshrink.
Figure2.Topfourgrowthopportunitiesin2024(%ofretailexecutives)42
54%
Strengthening
loyaltyprogram
44%
Strengtheningdigital
commerceofferings
36%
Enhancingin-store
customerexperience
32%
Enhancing
omnichannel
experience
8
Enhancingcustomerexperiences
AI-poweredsmartcarts
Features:Computervisionforpersonalizedshopping.
Benefits:Instantcheckout,real-timeanalysisofcartsandshelves.
InteractiveAIsmartdisplays
Features:Recognizecustomerfacialexpressionstotailorcontent.
Benefits:Personalizedcustomer
interactionbasedonmooddetection.
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
Someretailersareplanningexpansivestoreremodelsthatcan
immediatelycreatemorepleasantenvironmentsandstickybehaviorfromconsumers.43Targetrecentlynotedthatsalesincrease2%to
4%onaverageduringtheyearoncestoresarerenovated.44Butwealsoseeanopportunityininnovativetechthatusesdatatocreateefficienciesandconsistentexperiences,potentiallybuildingprofitableloyalty(seefigure3).
Thesetechtoolsnotonlyelevatetheoverallshoppingexperiencebutalsoequipretailerswithenhanceddata,amorenuanced
understandingofshopperprofiles,andacompetitiveadvantagebyofferingapersonalizedandcompleteomni-experience.
Figure3.Innovativeretailtechnologies
Improvingoperationsandmanagement
Intelligenttags
Features:Providecontinuous
item-levelinsights.
Benefits:Real-timetracking
ofproductlocation,availability,
andperformance.
Optimizedpricingand
storedesign
Features:Analyzeandstoredata
onin-storebehaviorsandexternal
factorslikeweather.
Benefits:Dynamicpricing,andoptimizedstorelayoutandmerchandising.
AI-poweredanalytics
Features:AnalyzecrucialdatatohighlightimportantKPIs.
Benefits:Streamlinetaskprioritization,ensureproductavailability,reduce
onlinereturns,lowerwaittime,andimprovecleanliness.
Shrinkmanagement
Features:Analyzecustomerbehaviorandemotionsforsecurityinsights.
Benefits:Detertheftandimprovestoresecurity.
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
9
OpportunityNo.3:Driveindividual
engagementatscalewithtrustworthyAI
Retailwasbuiltfromasupply-focusedmodeltomeettheneedsofthemasses.Withconsumerswantingmorebespokeexperiences,
retailersarelookingforwaystopersonalizeatscale.Deloitte’sFutureofConsumerworkseesthisas“acriticaltransitionfrommass-marketapproachestostrategiesthatprioritizerelevanceforspecificconsumergroups.Werefertothisshiftasanindustrymovingfrommassto
micro.”45Retailersmakingthisshifthaveanopportunitytodelightconsumerswithproductrecommendationsandtailoredinteractions,especiallyiftheyembedtrustatthecenteroftheirdesign.
DrivingpersonalizationatscalewithAI
HalfofretailexecutivesareprioritizingAI-drivenpersonalizedproductrecommendationsin2024.However,onlyfivein10retailexecutivesareconfidentintheircompany’sabilitytouseAIeffectivelyacrosstheirbusinesses.46Asretailersgatherlargervolumesandpotentiallymoresensitivetypesofdata,usingthisinformationskillfullyisvitaltomaintainthedelicatebalancebetweenwhatdataconsumersarewillingtoshareandtheexperiencesretailerscanoffer.ConsumersarewaryofAI:Eightin10consumersfromDeloitte’sholidaystudyhadlittletonotrustinretailers’abilitytouseartificialintelligence
responsiblyintheiroperations.47Retailersalsoseethisasa
challenge,asmorethanthree-quarterssaidusingnext-generationAItechnologiesinthenextfiveyearswillstrainconsumertrustandheightentheirconcernsaroundprivacyviolations,surveillance,lackoftransparency/accountability,andjobdisplacement.48
IntroduceandbuildAIwithtrustinmind
AccordingtoDeloitteresearch,trustinabranddrops144%for
customerswhoknowabrandisusingAI.49ButdataalsoshowsthatkeepingtrustatthecenterofAIdesigncancreategreateradoptionfromemployeesandcustomersandquadruplemarketvalue.50
Thesecrettotrustisderivedfromcompetenceandintent.Retailersshouldreliablydeliverontheirpromises.Theyshouldalsoshowenoughhumanityandtransparencytodemonstratetheirbest
intentions.Tobuildtrust,brandsandemployersshouldanchortheirdesign,implementation,andmessagingofAItoolsontheFourFactorsofTrust:51
1.Humanity:WhendefiningthegoalsforAItoolsforcustomers,retailersshouldexpandbeyondthetechnicaltofocuson
buildinghumaninteractions.Toconstructthesehuman
interactions,AIshouldbetrainedwithanexpansivesetofrulestoberesponsivetothecontextofthecustomer.Forexample,ifacustomermentionsadeathinthefamily,theAImaybetrainedtobuildhumanitybysaying,“I’msorry;mycondolences.”
2.Transparency:WhencommunicatingaboutAItocustomersoremployees,messagingshouldbeanchoredwithpreciseandtangibleusecases.Forexample,retailersshouldexplainhowandwhychatbotsarebeingused,providingspecificdetails
abouttheirpurposeandfunction.
3.Capability:WhendrivingadoptionandtrustinAItoolsfortheworkforce,retailersshouldconsiderbringingthebenefitsandcapabilitiestolifetodemystifythetechnology.Forexample,
retailerscouldprovideopportunitiesforemployeestotrythesetoolsfirsthandbyofferinga“sandbox”tobuildcomfortand
familiarityinazero-riskenvironment.Additionally,theycould
highlightthebenefitsinahumanway,focusingmessagingonthepositiveimpactofthetoolsforeachemployeewhileunderscoringthatthetoolsdonotunderminetheirworkandvalue.
4.Reliability:WhenimplementingAItoolsforcustomers,retailersshouldbeclearonwhattheycanexpectandthelimitationsoftheinteractions.Forexample,ifthebotscannotprovideaparticulartypeofsupport,retailerscouldtriageaccordinglyforcustomersupfront.Doingsowillultimatelydriveperceptionsofreliability.
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
Conclusion
Asretailerslooktowooprice-sensitive
consumersin2024,loyaltywillhaveto
beearned.Tomakethathappen,trust
willneedtobethecornerstoneoftheir
profitabilityplaybook.
10
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
Forecast
Appendix
Figure1:GDPversusconsumerspendinggrowth%
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Baselinescenario
History
201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
RealGDPRealconsumerspending
Note:ForecastsarebyDeloitte’sUSEconomicsteam.
Source:UnitedStatesBureauofEconomicAnalysis(sourcedusingHaverAnalytics);Deloitteanalysis.
Table1:Metricsdeterminingoutperformersandunderperformers
FY2020–22median
Outperformers
Middleoftheroad
Underperformers
Overall
Returnonassets(ROA)
16.2%
10.2%
3.8%
11.6%
Totaldebt-to-EBITDA
1.8x
2.2x
4.5x
2.2x
Notes:Deloitteanalysisof39leadingUS-basedretailers.Three-yearaveragesareusedtosummarizecompany-levelperformancesover
FY2020–22.Thetablerepresentsthemedianvaluesacrosscompaniesineachgroup.OutperformershadROAof11.6%ormoreandDebt-
to-EBITDAof2.2xorless,whileunderperformershadROAlessthan11.6%andDebt-to-EBITDAexceeding2.2xoverFY2020–22.
Source:S&PCapitalIQ
Table2:Profitablegrowth
FY2020–22median
Outperformers
Middleoftheroad
Underperformers
Overall
RevenueCAGR
10.7%
6.3%
2.7%
7.5%
EBITmargin
10.8%
7.5%
2.5%
6.0%
Netmargin
7.8%
5.3%
0.2%
4.0%
Totalassetsturnover
1.8x
1.3x
1.5x
1.5x
Returnoninvestedcapital(ROIC)
12.8%
8.3%
-1.5%
8.3%
FY2023–25median
RevenueCAGR
3.1%
4.0%
0.7%
3.1%
EBITmargin
10.9%
6.6%
3.4%
5.9%
Netmargin
8.3%
4.8%
2.2%
3.9%
Notes:Deloitteanalysisof39leadingUS-basedretailers.Three-yearaveragesareusedtosummarizecompany-levelperformances
11
overFY2020–22formetricsotherthanrevenue.EstimatedmetricsforFY2023–25arecalculatedbasedonconsensusanalystestimates
sourcedfromS&PCapitalIQasofDecember8,2023.Thetablerepresentsthemedianvaluesacrosscompaniesineachgroup.
Source:S&PCapitalIQ
12
Tailwinds
2024USretailindustryoutlook|Lookingforloyaltyinalltherightplaces
Table3:Balancingdebtandgrowthambitions
FY2020–22median
Outperformers
Middleoftheroad
Underperformers
Overall
RevenueCAGR
10.7%
6.3%
2.7%
7.5%
Capitalexpenditure
%ofrevenue
2.0%
3.4%
2.2%
2.3%
TotalassetsCAGR
5.1%
6.3%
2.5%
4.1%
Totaldebt
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