挪威石油天然气工业市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.4

INDUSTRIES

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MARKETSOilandgasindustryinNorwayCHAPTER

01OverviewOilproductionworldwidefrom1998to2022(in1,000barrelsperday)Globaloilproduction1998-2022100,00090,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,00001998

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20224Description:Globaloilproductionamountedto93.9millionbarrelsperdayin2022.Thelevelofoilproductionreachedanall-timehighin2019,atnearly95millionbarrels.However,thecoronaviruspandemicanditsimpactontransportationfueldemandledtoanotabledeclineinthefollowingyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1998to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGLeadingoil-producingcountriesworldwidein2022(in1,000barrelsperday)Globaloilproduction2022,bycountryProductioninthousandbarrelsperday02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000UnitedStatesSaudiArabiaRussia17,77012,13611,202Canada5,576IraqChinaUnitedArabEmiratesIran4,5204,1114,0203,822BrazilKuwait3,1073,028MexicoNorwayKazakhstanQatar1,9441,9011,7691,768Algeria1,4745Description:TheUnitedStatesproducedthemostoilintheworldin2022,ataround17.7millionbarrelsofoilperdayonaverage.SaudiArabiaandRussiafollowedasthesecondandthirdlargestproducers,andalsorankamongstthetopcountrieswithhighestoilexports.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGNaturalgasproductionworldwidefrom1998to2022(inbillioncubicmeters)Globalnaturalgasproduction1998-20224,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050001998

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20226Description:Globalnaturalgasproductionamountedtosome4.09trillioncubicmetersin2022,signifyingaslightdecreasecomparedtothepreviousyear.Theglobalnaturalgasshareofenergysourcesisexpectedtoincreaseinthefuture.Russia,theUnitedStates,andIranaresomeoftheworld'slargestnaturalgasproducers.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1998to2022Source(s):BPProductionofnaturalgasworldwidein2022,bycountry(inbillioncubicmeters)Globalnaturalgasproduction2022,bycountryProductioninbillioncubicmeters400

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60001002003007008009001,0001,100UnitedStatesRussia978.6618.4Iran259.4China221.8CanadaQatar185178.4AustraliaNorwaySaudiArabiaAlgeria152.8122.8120.498.2MalaysiaTurkmenistanEgypt82.478.364.57Description:Asof2022,theUnitedStateswasthebiggestproducerofnaturalgasintheworld.Withaproductionofapproximately979billioncubicmetersthatyear,U.S.naturalgasproductionwasover230billioncubicmetersmorethanthesecondbiggestproducer-Russia.Thesetwonationsarebyfarthebiggestcontributorstonaturalgasproductionontheplanet.In2021,globalnaturalgasproductionreachedapeakoffourtrillioncubicmeters.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGCHAPTER

02Exploration&productionNumberofoilandgasexplorationwellsdrilledinNorwayfrom2009to2024ExplorationoilandgaswellsdrilledinNorway2009-20246050403020100200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*

2024**9Description:TheNorwegianupstreamindustrydrilledanestimated35oilandgasexplorationwellsin2023.For2024,thesourceforecastexplorationactivitytoyieldthecompletionofsome36wells.Between2009and2023,therewerenotableincreasesindrillingin2010,2014,and2019-yearswhichoftenfollowedgreaterdemandandhigheroilprices.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2009to2023;*EstimateasofSeptember2023.**Forecast.ReadmoreSource(s):RystadEnergyProvedoilreservesinNorwayinselectedyearsfrom1960to2022(inmillionbarrels)ProvedoilreservesinNorway1960-202216,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000196019701980199019952000200520102015201620172018201920202021202210Description:In2022,Norway’soilreservesstoodat7.57billionbarrels.Thecountryhasseenanoveralldeclineinitsprovedoilreservessince1990swhenprovedreservesexceeded10billionbarrels.Inlinewiththisdevelopment,Norway’soilproductionhasalsodecreasedformuchofthe2000s,fallingtolessthantwomillionbarrelsperdayin2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;1960to2022Source(s):OPECOilproductioninNorwayfrom2000to2022(in1,000barrelsperday)OilproductioninNorway2000-20224,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050002000

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202211Description:OilproductioninNorwaysawanoticeabledeclinebetween2001to2013,droppingfrom3.4millionbarrelsperdayto1.8million.Sincethen,productionexperiencedaslightrecoveryandamountedtoaround1.9millionbarrelsby2022.Inthefirstquarterof2019,Norwaymadefiveoilandgasdiscoveriesinitsterritories.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2000to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGProvednaturalgasreservesinNorwayinselectyearsfrom1960to2022(intrillioncubicmeters)NaturalgasreservesinNorway1960-20224.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.03.843.112.762.692.692.652.552.462.392.332.252.232.172.12.082.071.3100196019701980199020002005201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202212Description:ProvedreservesofnaturalgasinNorwayamountedto2.08trillioncubicmetersin2022,downfrom3.84billioncubicmetersatthebeginningofthecentury.Norway'sprovedreservesofnaturalgashavedecreasedcontinuouslysince2000.

ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;1960to2022Source(s):OPECNaturalgasproductioninNorwayfrom2005to2022(inbillioncubicmeters)NaturalgasproductioninNorway2005-202214012010080604020020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202213Description:Norway'snaturalgasproductionamountedto122.8billioncubicmetersin2022,anincreaseofsome7.5percentincomparisontothepreviousyear.Duringtheperiodinconsideration,figuresgrewbyover37.6billioncubicmeters.

ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2005to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGLeadingfossilfuelextractionprojectsintermsoflifetimeemissionsinNorwayasof2021(inmillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)LifetimeemissionsoffossilfuelextractionprojectsinNorway2021Milliontonsofcarbondioxideequivalent01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0009,171.75TrolloilandgasfieldJohanSverdrupoilandgasfieldOrmenLangeoilandgasfieldAastaHansteenoilandgadfieldÅsgardoilandgasfield3,870.962,935.082,156.341,773.951,377.81GullfaksSøoilandgasfieldOsebergoilandgasfield1,299.171,192.59Visundoilandgasfield1,102.61931.54KvitebjøroilandgasfieldSnøhvioilandgasfield14Description:TheTrolloilandgasfieldwastheleadingfossilfuelextractionprojectinNorwayintermsoflifetimeemissionsasof2021.InoperationintheNorthSeasince1990,emissionsofover9.1billiontonsofcarbondioxideequivalentcanbeattributedtotheoffshoreoilandgasfield.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2021Source(s):BP;EIA;GlobalRegistryofFossilFuels;OPECCHAPTER

03PipelinesLongestcrudeoilpipelinesontheNorwegiancontinentalshelfasof2020(inkilometers)LongestoffshoreoilpipelinesinNorway2020Lengthinkilometers100

150050200250300350400NorpipeOil(ConocoPhillipsSkandinavia)JohanSverdrupOilPipeline(Equinor)SleipnerEastCondensatePipeline(Equinor)GraneOilPipeline(Equinor)354283245220OsebergTransportSystem(Equinor)11516Description:TheNorpipeOilisthelongestoilpipelineonNorway'scontinentalshelf.Thepipeline,whichbegantransportingoilin1975andisoperatedbyConocoPhillipsSkandinavia,hasalengthof354kilometers.ItrunsfromtheEkofiskoilfieldintheNorthSeatoTeessideintheUnitedKingdom.ReadmoreNote(s):NorwaySource(s):Gassco;NorskPetroleum;OljedirektoratetLongestnaturalgaspipelinesontheNorwegiancontinentalshelfasof2020(inkilometers)LongestoffshoregaspipelinesinNorway2020Lengthinkilometers4000100200300500600700800900FranpipeZeepipe840808720ÅsgardTransportEuropipeII660Langeled(north)EuropipeI628620Langeled(south)Polarled536481Norpipe440Versterled36017/statistics/1449654/longest-gas-pipelines-norwayTheFranpipeisthelongestgaspipelineoriginatingonNorway'scontinentalshelfwithalengthof840kilometers.Thepipelinewasestablishedin1998andconnectstheDraupnerEgasextractionplatformintheNorthSeawithrefinersinDunkirk,France.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2020Source(s):Gassco;NorskPetroleum;OljedirektoratetDailycapacityofoffshorenaturalgasdistributionpipelinesinNorwayasof2024(inmillionstandardcubicmeters)OffshoregaspipelinesbycapacityinNorway2024Capacityinmillionstandardcubicmetersperday30

400102050607080LangeledNorthZeepipeIIAZeepipeIIBLangeledSouthEuropipeIIZeepipe*74.7747372.171.255Franpipe54.8EuropipeINorpipeStatpipe*45.744.444.4Vesterled36.9OGT35KvitebjørnPipeline26.518Description:TheLangeledNorthpipelinebetweentheNorthSea'sSleipnergasfieldandNyhamnarefineryistheoffshoregaspipelinewiththegreatestdailycapacityinNorway.Asof2024,thisEquinorandGasscooperatedpipelinehadacapacityof74.7millionstandardcubicmetersperday.Itstotallengthmeasures627kilometers.TheEuropipeIIwasthegreatestpipelinefortradingwiththeGermanconsumermarket,withadailycapacityof71.2millionstandardcubicmeters.

ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2024Source(s):GasscoCHAPTER

04Refining&consumptionOilrefinerycapacityinNorwayfrom2005to2022(in1,000barrelsperday)OilrefinerycapacityinNorway2005-202240035034234234234234234234234234232931631631631631631630025020015010050226226020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220Description:In2022,Norway'soilrefinerycapacityamountedto226thousandbarrelsperday,aconsiderabledecreasewhencomparedto2020.Between2012and2020,capacitiesintheNordiccountryremainedunchangedat342thousandbarrelsdaily.

ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2005to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGOilrefinerythroughputinNorwayfrom2005to2022(in1,000barrelsdaily)OilrefinerythroughputinNorway2005-202235030730530529229328928930025020015010050287281279278274265259237230222152020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202221Description:OilrefinerythroughputinNorwayamountedto157thousandbarrelsperdayin2022.Thiswasaconsiderabledecreasewhencomparedtothepreviousyear.Duringtheperiodinconsideration,figuresdeclinedby137thousandbarrelsperday,peakingat307thousandbarrelsdailyin2006.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2005to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGDailycrudeoilconsumptioninNorwayfrom2011to2022(in1,000barrels)OilconsumptioninNorway2011-202225022222622121721521621221321020720319220015010050020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202222Description:Norwayconsumedaround192,000barrelsofoilandoilproductsperdayinDecember2022.Thiswasadecreasecomparedtothepreviousyearandthelowestfigureintheperiodofconsideration.Oilconsumptionislargelytiedtotheuseofoil-basedtransportationfuels,whichhasdeclinedinlightofgreaterelectricvehicleadoption.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2011to2022;FiguresrefertoDecember1ofeachyearSource(s):BP;CEICNaturalgasconsumptioninNorwayfrom2005to2022(inbillioncubicmeters)NaturalgasconsumptioninNorway2005-20225.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202223Description:In2005,approximately4.4billioncubicmetersofnaturalgaswereconsumedinNorway.Naturalgasconsumptionremainedatlargelythesameleveloverthisperiod,andby2019hadreached4.6billioncubicmeters.In2022,Norway'sproductionofnaturalgasfellbacktofourbillioncubicmeters.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2005to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGCHAPTER

05Trade&marketdataExportvolumeofpetroleumandpetroleumproductsfromNorwayfrom2013to2023(inmillionmetrictons)PetroleumexportsfromNorway2013-20231009092.8890.6986.3685.8879.4978.828070605040302010076.0474.3972.7873.1771.262013201420152016201720182019202020212022202325/statistics/758778/export-volume-of-petroleum-from-norwayNorwayexportednearly93millionmetrictonsofpetroleumandpetroleumproductsin2023.Thiswasthehighestannualfigureintheperiodbetween2013and2023.CrudeoilandgasaccountforasignificantshareofNorway'stotalexportsbyvalue.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2013to2023Source(s):StatisticsNorwayExportvolumeofnaturalgasfromNorwayfrom2013to2022,byfirstdeliverypoint(inbillionstandardcubicmeters)NaturalgasexportsinNorway2013-2022,byfirstdestinationEuropipe1(Germany)Dunkerque(France)Europipe2(Germany)BelgiumNorsea(Germany)DenmarkEasington(UK)LNGStFergusandothers(UK)140120100806040200201320142015201620172018201920202021202226Description:Norwayexportedaround122billioncubicmetersofnaturalgasin2022.TheEuropipe1gaspipelineconnectingNorwegianproducerswiththeGermanconsumermarketwasthemainavenueforsuchexportsthatyear.ThevastmajorityofNorwegiangasisexportedviaasubstantialnetworkofpipelinescrossingtheNorthSea.LNG(liquefiednaturalgas)accountsforanotablysmallerexportshare.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2013to2022Source(s):Gassco;NorskPetroleum;NorwegianOffshoreDirectorateExportvalueofpetroleumfromNorwayfrom2010to2022(inbillionNorwegiankroner)ExportvalueofpetroleumfromNorway2010-20226005495004234014003002001000376375369355296277260242229222201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202227/statistics/1025391/export-value-of-crude-oil-from-norwayThepetroleumexportvaluefromNorwayclimbedto549billionNorwegiankronerin2022.Thatyear,figuresincreasedbymorethan150billionNorwegiankronerasaresultofsanctionsonRussianoilimportsacrossEuropeandhigheroilprices.

ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2010to2022Source(s):NorskPetroleumExportvalueofnaturalgasfromNorwayfrom2010to2022(inbillionNorwegiankroner)NaturalgasexportvalueinNorway2010-20221,6001,4001,2001,0008001,3566005034002000330319301281263271236213191197129201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202228/statistics/1025415/export-value-of-natural-gas-from-norwayNaturalgaswithatotalvalueof1,356billionNorwegiankronerwasexportedfromNorwayin2021.ThiswasanotableincreasecomparedtothepreviousyearandcameasgasdemandroseacrosstheEuropeancontinentfollowingsanctionsonRussia.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2010to2022Source(s):NorskPetroleum;StatisticsNorwayShareofpetroleumintotalexportvalueofgoodsinNorwayfrom2010to2022OilandgasshareoftotalexportsvalueinNorway2010-202275%70%73%65%61%60%59%59%60%55%50%45%40%35%57%57%53%51%50%47%47%42%201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202229Description:Oilandgasmadeup73percentofthevalueofallgoodsexportedfromNorwayin2022.Thegreatjumpnotedbetween2020and2022islargelyduetosupplyconstrictions,whichledtosurgingoilprices,andEuropeantradingpartnerslookingtocurbRussianfuelimports.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2010to2022Source(s):NorskPetroleum;StatisticsNorwayPetroleumindustryshareintotalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)contributionsinNorwayfrom2000to2024OilandgasindustrycontributiontoGDPNorway2000-202440%35%35%30%25%24.4%23.8%25%20%15%10%5%23.2%23.2%22.5%22.4%22.3%21.6%21.3%20.8%20.8%20.2%19.5%19%18.8%18.1%18.1%17.4%15.5%15%14%12.7%10.9%2000

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2023*2024*30Description:In2024,Norway'soilandgasindustryisexpectedtocontributenearly24percenttototalGDP.Intheperiodofconsideration,figuresoscillatedbetween10and35percent.Theindustryisoneofthemostimportantinthecountry,makingupastaggering73percentofNorway'sexportvaluein2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2000to2024;*Datafor2023and2024ispreliminary.ReadmoreSource(s):MinistryofFinance(Norway);NorskPetroleum;StatisticsNorwayMarketvalueofoilandnaturalgasinNorwayfrom2020to2022,withaforecastuntil2030(inbillionU.S.dollars)OilandgasmarketvalueinNorway2020-203080706070.4261.7654.3948.075042.6337.9140302010033.8130.2127.05202224.27202121.8120202023*202420252026202720282029203031Description:Norway'soilandgasmarketwaswortharound27.05billionU.S.dollarsin2022.Thismarketvalueisforecasttoincreasetomorethan70billionU.S.dollarsby2030.

ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2020to2022;*Thefiguresfrom2023onwardsareforecastandassumeanunderlyingCAGRof12.85percent.

ReadmoreSource(s):KingsResearchCHAPTER

06PricesProducerpriceindexoftheoilandgasextractionindustryinNorwayfrom2010to2023,bydestinationmarketOilandgasextractionPPIinNorway2010-2023,bydestinationmarketDomesticmarketForeignmarket3503002502001501005002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202333Description:Norway'soilandgasextractionindustryhasrecordedaproducerpriceindexofnearly200indexpointsin2023,upfrom100inthebaseyear2015.Inthelastthreeyears,salestoforeignmarketstendedtoleadtogreaterprofits,asproducerpricesweregenerallyhigher.ThisdevelopmentisareflectionofsupplybottlenecksacrossmuchofcontinentalEuropeandtheUnitedKingdom,Norway'sgreatestoilandgastradingpartners.ReadmoreNote(s):Norway;2010to2023Source(s):StatisticsNorwayAverageannualBrentcrudeoilpricefrom1976to2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)Brentcrudeoilpriceannually1976-202412010080604020034Description:TheaverageannualpriceofBrentcrudeoilstoodat81.8U.S.dollarsperbarrelin2024.ThisisaccordingtopreliminarydatafromFebruary.Thisisnearly20U.S.dollarslowerthanthe2022annualaverage,whenanenergysupplyshortageandconcernsoverfalloutfromtheRussia-Ukrainewarsawpricessurge.Brentistheworld'sleadingpricebenchmarkforAtlanticbasincrudeoils.Crudeoilisoneofthemostcloselyobservedcommoditypricesasitinfluencescostsacrossallstagesof[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1976to2024;*AsofFebruary.ReadmoreSource(s):EIA;en2xAveragemonthlyBrentcrudeoilpricefromFebruary2022toFebruary2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)MonthlycrudeoilpriceaverageforBrent2022-2024130120110100908070Feb

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Feb'22'22'22'22'22'22'22'22'22'22'23'23'23'23'23'23'23'23'23'23'23'24'2435Description:InFebruary2024,theaveragepriceofonebarrelofBrentcrudeoilwas83.48U.S.dollars.Thiswashigherthanthefigurereportedthepreviousmonth,asconcernsoveranescalatingMiddleEastconflictedgedpricesslightlyupward.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;February2022toFebruary2024Source(s):EIA;en2xCHAPTER

07CompaniesLeadingcompaniesintheextractionofcrudepetroleumandnaturalgasindustryinNorwayasofOctober2022,byturnover(inmillionNOK)LeadingcrudepetroleumandnaturalgascompaniesinNorway2022,byturnoverTurnoverinmillionNOK010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000EquinorASAEssoNorgeASTotalE&PNorgeAS64,35732,28930,628LundinNorwayAS25,428.525,122.923,67720,16819,139VårEnergiASConocoPhillipsSkandinaviaASExxonMobilExplorationAndProductionNorwayASNorskeShell,A/SOmv(Norge)AS12,549.6NeptuneEnergyNorgeASEquinorDezasseteAS8,8308,693RepsolNorgeAS4,835.5IneosE&PNorgeASConocophillipsNorge4,280.84,198IdemitsuPetroleumNorgeAS3,788.337Description:Withaturnoverofroughly64.4billionNorwegiankroner,EquinorASAwastheleadingcrud