全球石油工业市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.4

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MARKETSOilindustryworldwideCHAPTER

01OverviewProvedcrudeoilreservesworldwideinselectyearsfrom1960to2022(inbillionbarrels)Globalcrudeoilreserves1960-20221,8001,6001,4001,2001,00080060040020001960

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20224Description:Theworldholdsaround1.56trillionbarrelsinprovedcrudeoilreservesasof2022.Thisisexcludingoilsands.Since1960,therehasbeenamarkedincreaseinoilreserves,especiallyinthedecadebetween1960and1970.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1960to2022Source(s):OPECOilproductionworldwidefrom1998to2022(inmillionmetrictons)Globaloilproduction1998-20225,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050001998

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20225/statistics/265229/global-oil-production-in-million-metric-tonsGlobaloilproductionhasbeenslowlyincreasingsince1998.In2022,globalcrudeoilproductionamountedtoapproximately4.4billionmetrictons.Figurepeakedin2018,whentheoilproductionworldwidenearlyreached4.5billionmetrictons.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1998to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGDemandforcrudeoilworldwidefrom2005to2022,withaforecastfor2023(inmillionbarrelsperday)Globalcrudeoildemand2005-2023120100806040200200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

2023*6Description:Theglobaldemandforcrudeoil(includingbiofuels)in2022amountedto99.57millionbarrelsperdayanditisprojectedtoincreaseto101.89millionbarrelsperdayin2023.Thedecreasein2020wasduetotheeconomicandmobilityimpactsofthecoronaviruspandemic,includingwidespreadshutdownsacrosstheworld.Whencomparedtothedailyoildemandof84.8millionbarrelsin2010,theincreasingdemandtrajectorythatoccurredinthepastdecadeisneverthelessstillclear.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2005to2022;*Forecast.ThisstatisticwasassembledfromseveraleditionsoftheOPECmonthlyandannualreports.Allfiguresareannualaveragesandincludebiofuels.

ReadmoreSource(s):OPECReturnrateoncrudeoilinvestmentsworldwidefrom2010to2023Globalcrudeoilinvestmentreturns2010-202380%55.01%60%40%20%0%45.03%34.46%15.15%12.47%8.15%7.19%6.71%-7.09%-10.73%-20.54%2020-24.84%2018-20%-40%-60%-30.47%2015-45.58%201420102011201220132016201720192021202220237Description:Crudeoilisavolatilecommodity.Between2010and2022,thereturnrateonoilinvestmentsjumpedbetweenlossesofover45percentandgainsof55percent.In2022,crudeoilrateoflossamountedto10.73percent.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2023Source(s):Bloomberg;VisualCapitalistCHAPTER

02Reserves&productionVolumeofcrudeoilandnaturalgasdiscoveriesworldwidefrom2015to2023(inbillionbarrelsofoilequivalent)Globaloilandgasdiscoveries2015-20232520.32015.81512.512.19.91057.954.702015201620172018201920202021*20239Description:Globaloilandgasdiscoveriesamountedtofivebillionbarrelsofoilequivalentin2023.Thiswasnotablylowerthanthediscoveryvolumereportedintheperiodbetween2015and2020,butslightlymorethantheamountreportedforthe11-monthperiodbetweenJanuaryandNovember2021.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2015to2023Source(s):RystadEnergyDistributionofprovedcrudeoilreservesworldwideinselectyearsin1960and2022,byregionGlobalcrudeoilreservessharebycountry1960-2022Shareofglobalreserves202230%19600%10%20%40%50%60%70%55.71%MiddleEastLatinAmericaAfrica62.87%21.17%7.8%7.61%2.75%5.11%Russia8.1%4.2%2.48%1.73%OECDAmericasOtherEurasia*China13.39%0.17%0.8%OtherAsia3.6%0.72%OECDEuropeIndia0.57%0.28%0.25%0.12%OECDAsiaPacificOtherEurope0.02%0.06%0.48%10Description:TheMiddleEastaccountsforthegreatestshareofprovedoilreservesofanyregionintheworld.Asof2022,theMiddleEasthousedsome56percentofknownoilreserves.Inthepastthreedecades,theMiddleEast’sshareofglobaloilreservesdroppedfromnearly63percentin1960tolessthan56percentin2020.ThiswasmainlyduetogreaterreservesdiscoveredintheAmericasandby2022LatinAmerica’ssharehadalmosttripled.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1960to2022Source(s):OPECDistributionofprovedoilreservesworldwidein1960and2022,bycountryGlobaloilreservesbreakdownbycountry1960-2022Shareofglobaloilreserves202210%19600%5%15%20%25%19.38%VenezuelaSaudiArabiaIran6.35%17.08%18.2%13.33%12.02%9.27%Iraq9.27%7.22%6.49%UnitedArabEmiratesKuwait0.09%22.32%5.11%Russia8.1%3.53%3.09%2.36%UnitedStatesLibya10.86%0.69%0.05%Nigeria11Description:Venezuelaaccountsforthegreatestshareofglobaloilreserves.Asof2022,19.38percentofallknownoilreserveswerefoundintheSouthAmericancountry.SaudiArabiafollowed,atsome17percent.ThemajorityofVenezuela'soilreservesareheldintheformofoilsandsandotherveryheavyoiltypesthathaveonlybecomeaccessiblethroughtechnologicaladvancesmadeinthelate2000'sandearly2010's.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1960and2022Source(s):OPECLeadingoil-producingcountriesworldwidein2022(in1,000barrelsperday)Globaloilproduction2022,bycountryProductioninthousandbarrelsperday02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000UnitedStatesSaudiArabiaRussia17,77012,13611,202Canada5,576IraqChinaUnitedArabEmiratesIran4,5204,1114,0203,822BrazilKuwait3,1073,028MexicoNorwayKazakhstanQatar1,9441,9011,7691,768Algeria1,47412Description:TheUnitedStatesproducedthemostoilintheworldin2022,ataround17.7millionbarrelsofoilperdayonaverage.SaudiArabiaandRussiafollowedasthesecondandthirdlargestproducers,andalsorankamongstthetopcountrieswithhighestoilexports.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGCHAPTER

03Trade&pricesTransportvolumeofcrudeoilinseabornetradeworldwidefrom2010to2022(inmillionmetrictons)Globalseabornetradevolumeofcrudeoil2010-20222,5002,0612,0192,0171,9551,9512,0001,5001,0005001,9061,8671,8571,8721,8631,8591,8361,80302010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022*14Description:Globally,around1.95billionmetrictonsofcrudeoilwastransportedbyseain2022.Thiswasstilllowerthanthevolumesreportedpre-pandemic,withglobaloilproductionalsofallingshortofthoselevels.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2022;*Preliminary.Prioryearfiguresweretakenfrompreviouseditionsofthereport.ReadmoreSource(s):ClarksonResearchServices;ISL;VSMLeadingcrudeoilandoilproductsexportersworldwidein2022,byregionorcountry(in1,000barrelsperday)Globaloilexporters2022,byregionExportsinthousandbarrelsperday6,000

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10,00002,0004,00012,00014,00016,00018,000MiddleEast*SaudiArabiaUnitedStatesRussia15,3878,8748,7617,948AsiaPacific**Canada6,5484,699WestAfrica3,557SouthandCentralAmericaEurope2,9592,6842,177RestoftheWorldNorthAfrica2,0731,976OtherCIS***Mexico1,17215Description:Asaregion,theMiddleEastisthelargestexporterofoilintheworld,atapproximately15.4millionbarrelsperdayin2022.TheAsia-Pacificregionexportedthesecondlargestamountofoil,thoughroughlyhalfasmuchastheMiddleEast.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGCountrieswithhighestvalueofcrudeoilexportsworldwidein2022(inbillionU.S.dollars)Globalcrudeoilexportvaluebycountry2022ExportsinbillionU.S.dollars1000SaudiArabiaCanada50150200250224.8120.5Russia119.5UnitedStatesUnitedArabEmiratesIraq117112.782.3Norway57.854.349.942.7KuwaitNigeriaBrazil16Description:SaudiArabia’scrudeoilexportsin2022hadavalueof224.8billionU.S.dollars.Thiswasthehighestamountmadebyanycrudeoilexportingcountrythatyearandcorrespondedtoa16.7percentshareofglobalcrudeexportsbasedonvalue.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):CIA(WorldFactbook);Forbes;InternationalTradeCentre;WTExLeadingcrudeoilimportersworldwidein2022(in1,000barrelsperday)Largestglobalcrudeoilimporters2022ImportsinthousandbarrelsperdayCrudeoil6,000Oilproducts8,00002,0004,00010,00012,00014,00016,000EuropeChinaUnitedStatesIndiaJapanSouthandCentralAmericaSingaporeEastandSouthernAfricaMexicoAustralasiaWestAfricaCanada17Description:In2022,Europeimportedmoreoilanditsproductsthananyotherregionacrosstheglobe,atroughly14.4millionbarrelsperday.Chinafollowedcloselyasthesecond-largestimporter,with12.2milliondailybarrels.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGAverageannualBrentcrudeoilpricefrom1976to2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)Brentcrudeoilpriceannually1976-202412010080604020018Description:TheaverageannualpriceofBrentcrudeoilstoodat81.8U.S.dollarsperbarrelin2024.ThisisaccordingtopreliminarydatafromFebruary.Thisisnearly20U.S.dollarslowerthanthe2022annualaverage,whenanenergysupplyshortageandconcernsoverfalloutfromtheRussia-Ukrainewarsawpricessurge.Brentistheworld'sleadingpricebenchmarkforAtlanticbasincrudeoils.Crudeoilisoneofthemostcloselyobservedcommoditypricesasitinfluencescostsacrossallstagesof[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1976to2024;*AsofFebruary.ReadmoreSource(s):EIA;en2xAverageannualWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilpricefrom1976to2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)WestTexasIntermediateannualaverageoilprice1976-202412010080604020019Description:AsofFebruary2024,theaverageannualpriceofWestTexasIntermediatecrudeoilreached74.15U.S.dollarsperbarrel.Thiswasanotabledecreasecomparedtothe2022average,whichstoodat94.9U.Sdollarswhenoilpricesrosefollowinganenergysupplyshortageinthefall/winterof2021/22.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1976to2024;*AsofFebruary2024.ReadmoreSource(s):EIA;en2xAverageannualOPECcrudeoilpricefrom1960to2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)OPECoilpriceannually1960-202412010080604020020Description:Thepreliminary2024OPECoilpricestoodat80.6U.S.dollarsperbarrels,asofFebruary.Thiswouldbelowerthanthe2023average,whichamountedto82.95U.S.dollars.TheabbreviationOPECstandsforOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountriesandincludesAlgeria,Angola,Congo,EquatorialGuinea,Gabon,Iraq,Iran,Kuwait,Libya,Nigeria,SaudiArabia,Venezuela,andtheUnitedArabEmirates.TheaimoftheOPECistocoordinatetheoilpoliciesofitsmemberstates.Itwas[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1960to2024Source(s):en2x;OPECCHAPTER

04ConsumptionOilconsumptionworldwidefrom1970to2022(inmillionmetrictons)Globaloilconsumption1970-20225,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000197019801990199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202222Description:Globalconsumptionofoilhassteadilyincreasedoverthelastthreedecades,totaling4.39billionmetrictonsin2022,comparedto4.26billionmetrictonsconsumedthepreviousyear.Theonlydeclineduringthisperiodwasobservedaroundthe2008-2009financialcrisisandaroundthe2020coronaviruspandemic.Inrecentyears,crudeoilpriceshavebeenonacontinualannualincrease.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1970to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGOilconsumptionshareworldwidein2010and2022,byregionGlobaloilconsumptionshare2010&2022,byregionGlobalconsumptionshare202215%20100%5%10%20%25%30%35%40%36.3%AsiaPacificNorthAmerica31.5%24.2%25.8%19.3%EuropeandCIS*MiddleEast22.9%9.7%8.9%6.3%6.33%CentralandSouthAmericaAfrica4.3%3.48%23Description:AsiaPacificisthegreatestconsumerofoilandoilproductsintheworld.In2022,theregionaccountedforaround36percentoftotaloildemandworldwide.Thiswasupfrom31.5percentin2010andlargelybuoyedbygreaterChineseoilconsumption.OilconsumptioninCentralandSouthAmerica,aswellasinEurope,experiencedadeclineinthesametimeperiod.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010and2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGLeadingoil-consumingcountriesworldwidein2022(in1,000barrelsperday)Globaloilconsumption2022,bycountryConsumptioninthousandbarrelsperday10,000

15,00005,00020,00025,000UnitedStatesChina19,14014,295India5,185SaudiArabiaRussiaJapanSouthKoreaBrazil3,8763,5703,3372,8582,5122,288CanadaMexicoGermanyIran2,0982,0751,912Indonesia1,58524Description:TheUnitedStatesandChinaarethetoplargestconsumersofoilintheworld,totaling19.1millionand14.3millionbarrelsperday,respectively.Inthelastdecade,theshareofglobaloilconsumptionfromEuropeandNorthAmericahavebeguntodecline,whereasconsumptionlevelsfromAsiaPacificandotherregionshaverisen.Asothersourcesofenergybecomemorecosteffectiveandduetotheprominenceofnewtransportationtechnologies,oilconsumptionworldwideisexpectedto[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGDistributionofoildemandintheOECDin2022,bysectorOildemandshareintheOECD2022bysectorShareofdemand0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%RoadPetrochemicals49.24%12.12%Otherindustry10.89%Residential/commercial/agriculturalAviation8.5%7.41%Marinebunkers3.27%3.05%ElectricitygenerationRail&domesticwaterways1.53%25Description:RoadtransportationisthegreatestoildemandingsectorinOECD(OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment)memberstates.In2022,49.24percentofalloilconsumedintheOECDwasrelatedtomotorvehicleusage.Bycomparison,thepetrochemicalsectorwhichmanufacturesplastics,resins,andotherpetroleum-basedproducts,onlymadeupaboutaneighthoftotaldemand.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):OPECCHAPTER

05CompaniesLeadingoilandgascompaniesworldwidebasedonrevenueasof2023(inbillionU.S.dollars)Leadingglobaloilandgasproducersbasedonrevenue2023RevenueinbillionU.S.dollars050100150200250300350400Sinopec,China*PetroChina,ChinaExxonMobil,U.S.ShellPLC,UK372.52357.01313.9305.57TotalEnergies,FranceBP,UK204.96197.56184.75Chevron,U.S.MarathonPetroleum,U.S.Valero,U.S.139.66138.64Phillips66,U.S.133.81Equinor,NorwayEniSpA.,Italy113.08109.06Petrobras,BrazilIndianOilCorporationLtd,IndiaLukoil,Russia104.1391.890.7427Description:Sinopec(ChinaPetroleum&ChemicalCorporation)istheleadingglobaloilandgascompanybyrevenuesgenerated.Inits2022fiscalyear,theChinesestate-ownedenterprisegenerated372.5billionU.S.dollarsinrevenues.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):ThomsonReuters;Varioussources(companydata)LeadingoilandgascompaniesworldwidebasedonmarketcapitalizationasofDecember2023(inbillionU.S.dollars)LeadingglobaloilandgasproducersbasedonmarketcapDecember2023MarketcapitalizationinbillionU.S.dollars050100150200250300350ExxonMobil,U.S.Chevron,U.S.309.75212.87RoyalDutchShell,UKRelianceIndustries,IndiaPetroChina,China162.29158.39132.36125.11TotalEnergies,FranceConocoPhillips,U.S.104.53BP,UKPetrobras,BrazilEquinor,Norway77.772.9372.35ChinaPetroleum&ChemicalCorp.(Sinopec),ChinaChinaShenhua,ChinaCNOOC,China66.3964.562.98EnbridgeIncSchlumberger,U.S.58.7554.9728Description:ExxonMobilhasthehighestmarketcapitalizationofanyoilandgasproducerworldwide.AsofDecember8,2023,theUnitedStates-basedcompanyhadamarketcapof309.75billionU.S.dollars.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;asofDecember8,2023Source(s):ThomsonReuters;Varioussources(companydata)OperatingrevenueofBPfrom2005to2022(inmillionU.S.dollars)BP'soperatingrevenue2005-2022400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

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2021202229Description:BPgeneratedanoperatingrevenueof241.4billionU.S.dollarsin2022,upbynearly53percentfromthepreviousyear.BPisagloballyoperatingoilandgascompanyandcountedamongtheoilsupermajorsorBigOilcompanies-thelargestpubliccompanieswithintheindustry.ItisheadquarteredinLondon,UnitedKingdom.Operatingasaverticallyintegratedcompany,BPisactiveinallareasoftheoilandgassupplychain,fromexplorationtorefining,marketing,andpowergeneration.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2005to2022;includessalesandotheroperatingrevenues.;*Figuresfor2019and2020wererestatedduetoaccountingpolicychanges.Thisstatisticwasassembledusingseveraleditionsofthereport.

ReadmoreSource(s):BPOperatingrevenueofExxonMobilfrom2001to2022(inmillionU.S.dollars)ExxonMobil'soperatingrevenue2001-2022500,000450,000400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,00002001

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202230Description:ExxonMobil'soperatingrevenueamountedtoapproximately413.7billionU.S.dollarsin2022.ExxonMobilisaUnitedStates-basedmultinationaloilandgascorporationandhasconsistentlybeenrankedamongthelargestcompaniesworldwidebasedonrevenue.Someofitsmaincompetitorsarefellowpublicly-tradedsupermajorssuchasShellandBP,aswellasstate-ownedgiantslikeSinopecandSaudiAramco.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2001to2022Source(s):ExxonMobilRevenueofShellfrom2010to2023(inbillionU.S.dollars)Shell'srevenue2010-2023500470.17467.15451.2445040035030025020015010050421.11388.38381.3368.06344.88316.62305.18264.96261.5233.59180.5402010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202331Description:Shell,formerlyRoyalDutchShell,reportedatotalrevenueof316.62billionU.S.dollarsin2023.Thiswasanotabledecreasecomparedtothepreviousyear,whenthecompanyprofitedfromdecade-highgasandoilprices.Asoneofthelargestoilandgascompaniesintheworld,thecompanyreporteditsgreatestprofitsduringyearswhentheaveragebenchmarkoilprices,suchastheBrentcrude,wereparticularlyhigh.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2023Source(s):ShellValueofrevenueofSaudiAramcofrom2017to2022(inbillionU.S.dollars)ValueofrevenueofSaudiAramco2017-2022600500400535.19359.18318.5294.85300224.13204.83200100020172018201920202021202232Description:SaudiAramcohadarevenueofabout535.18billionU.S.dollarsintheyear2022.Thiswasanincreasefromabout359.18billionU.S.dollarsinthepreviousyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):SaudiArabia;2017to2022Source(s):AramcoOperatingrevenueofChinaPetroleumandChemicalCorporation(Sinopec)from2010to2022(inbillionyuan)Sinopec'soperatingrevenue20223,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202233Description:Sinopecgeneratedroughly3.32trillionyuanworthofoperatingrevenuesin2022,representinganitsalltimehigh.Comparedtothepreviousyear,operatingrevenuesincreasedby21percent.

ReadmoreNote(s):China;2010to2022Source(s):SinopecCHAPTER

06EmploymentNumberofemployeesintheoilandgassupplysectorworldwidein2022,bykeyregion(in1,000s)Globaloilandgassupplyindustryemployment2022,byregionNumberofjobsinthousands1,000

1,50005002,0002,5003,000MiddleEast2,800NorthAmerica1,700Eurasia1,3001,300AfricaChina1,1001,100OtherAsiaPacificCentralandSouthAmericaIndia1,000800Europe70035Description:TheMiddleEastistheregionwiththehighestnumberofoilandgasindustryjobs.Asof2022,some2.8millionpeoplewereemployedintheoilandgassupplysectorthere.Muchoftheworld'sknownoilreservesareconcentratedintheMiddleEast,whichincludessomeofthelargestproducers,suchasSaudiArabiaandIran.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):IEANumberofemployeesintheoilandnaturalgasindustryworldwidein2022,bycommoditytype(inmillions)Globaloilandgasindustryemployment2022,bycommoditytype8765432107.64.10.56OilNaturalgasLNG(incl.innaturalgastotal)36Description:Themajorityofemployeesintheglobaloilandgasindustryareworkingspecificallyintheoilsector.Around7.6millionpeoplewereemployedacrosstheoilsupplychainworldwidein2022.Thisisoutofatotalofmorethan11.5millionjobsrecordedfortheoilandnaturalgasindustryoverall.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):IEADistributionofemployeesintheoilindustryworldwidein2022,bysubsectorGlobaloilindustryemploymentbreakdown2022,bysubsectorMidstream17%Refining18%Upstream65%37Description:Theupstreamsubsectorisresponsibleforaround65percentoftotalemploymentintheoilindustry.Asof2022,theextractionandproductionofthishydrocarbonfuelemployedmorepeoplethananyothersubsector.Overalloilindustryemploymentreached7.6millionthatsameyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):IEACHAPTER

07OutlookForecastnumberofindustry-relevantoilandgaswellstobedrilledworldwidein2024,byregionGlobalnumberofnewhigh-impactoilandgaswells2024,byregionNumberofwells60248101214AfricaLatinAmericaAsia13106NorthAmericaMiddleEastEurope222Oceania139Description:Africaisexpectedtoaccountforthehighestnumberofsignificantoilandgasdrillingin2024.Accordingtoaforecast,some13newoilandgaswellsdeemedas"high-impact",meaningtheycouldhavenotableimpactbyunlockingnewplaysorimplicatingprospectsofrespectiveoperators,couldbedrilledonthecontinent.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2024Source(s):RystadEnergyMonthlypetroleumandotherliquidsconsumptionworldwidefromJanuary2022toJanuary2024,withaforecastuntilDecember2024(inmillionbarrelsperday)Monthlygloballiquidfuelsconsumption2022-2024105.0104.0103.0102.0101.0100.099.098.097.096.0Jan

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