市场调查方法第九章课件

2024/5/13市场调查方法第九章LEARNINGOUTCOMESCreateanexperimental,independentvariablethroughavalidexperimentalmanipulationofitsvalueUnderstandandminimizethesystematicexperimentalerrorKnowwaysofminimizingexperimentaldemandcharacteristicsAvoidunethicalexperimentalpracticesWeighthetrade-offbetweeninternalandexternalvalidityRecognizetheappropriateusesoftestmarketingAfterstudyingthischapter,youshouldbeableto©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.TheNatureofExperimentsExperimentDefinedAresearchinvestigationinwhichconditionsarecontrolled.ExperimentalResearchAllowsaresearchertocontroltheresearchsituationsothatcausalrelationshipsamongvariablesmaybeevaluated.Independentvariablesareexpectedtodeterminetheoutcomesofinterest.Dependentvariablesaretheoutcomesofinteresttotheresearcherandthedecisionmakers.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.BasicIssuesinExperimentalDesignManipulationoftheindependentvariableSelectionandassignmentofexperimentalsubjectsControloverextraneousvariablesSelectionandmeasurementofthedependentvariableExperimentalDesign©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.IssuesinExperimentalDesignManipulationoftheIndependentVariableIndependentvariable:avariablewithvaluesthatcanbemanipulated,oraltered,independentlyofanyothervariable.ExperimentalTreatmentThetermreferringtothewayanexperimentalvariableismanipulated.Experimentalgroup:agroupofsubjectstowhomanexperimentaltreatmentisadministered.Controlgroup:agroupofsubjectstowhomnoexperimentaltreatmentisadministered.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.ExperimentalDesign(cont’d)SelectionandMeasurementoftheDependentVariableDependentvariable:thecriterionbywhichtheresultsofanexperimentarejudged;avariableexpectedtobedependentontheexperimenter’smanipulationoftheindependentvariable.Selectingdependentvariablesthatarerelevantandtrulyrepresentanoutcomeofinterestiscrucial.Choosingtherightdependentvariableispartoftheproblemdefinitionprocess—thoroughproblemdefinitionwillhelptheresearcherselectthemostimportantdependentvariable(s)whoseresultswillhelpmanagersindecisionmaking.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.ExperimentalDesign(cont’d)SelectionandAssignmentofTestUnitsTestunits:thesubjectsorentitieswhoseresponsestotreatmentaremeasuredorobserved.SampleSelectionAndRandomSamplingErrorsSystematicornonsamplingerrorSubjectselection,experimentaldesign,andunrecognizedextraneousvariablesOvercomingsamplingerrorsRandomizationMatchingRepeatedmeasuresControloverextraneousvariables©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.ExperimentalDesign(cont’d)SamplingErrors(cont’d)ExperimentalConfoundWhenthereisanalternativeexplanationbeyondtheexperimentalvariablesforanyobserveddifferencesinthedependentvariable.Onceapotentialconfoundisidentified,thevalidityoftheexperimentisseverelyquestioned.Sources:SamplingerrorSystematicerrorLater-identifiedextraneousvariablesCarefulexperimentaldesigncanreducethelikelihoodofconfounds.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.DemandCharacteristicsDemandCharacteristicAnexperimentaldesignelementorprocedurethatunintentionallyprovidessubjectswithhintsabouttheresearchhypothesis.DemandEffectOccurswhendemandcharacteristicsactuallyaffectthedependentvariable.ExperimenterBiasTheinfluenceofthepresence,actions,orcommentsofanexperimenteronsubjects’behavior.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.DemandCharacteristics(cont’d)ReducingDemandCharacteristicsUseanexperimentaldisguise.Isolateexperimentalsubjects.Usea“blind”experimentaladministrator.Administeronlyonetreatmentleveltoeachsubject.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.EXHIBIT9.1

BySmilingorLookingSolemn,ExperimentersCanModifySubjects’Behavior©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.EstablishingControlConstancyofConditionsSubjectsinallexperimentalgroupsareexposedtoidenticalconditionsexceptforthedifferingexperimentaltreatments.CounterbalancingAttemptstoeliminatetheconfoundingeffectsoforderofpresentationbyvaryingtheorderofpresentation(exposure)oftreatmentstosubjectgroups.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.EthicalIssuesinExperimentationDebriefingexperimentalsubjectsCommunicatingthepurposeoftheexperimentExplainingtheresearcher’shypothesesaboutthenatureofconsumerbehaviorAttemptstointerferewithacompetitor’stest-marketingeffortsSuchactsaschangingpricesorincreasingadvertisingtoinfluence(confound)competitors’test-marketingresultsareethicallyquestionable.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.FundamentalQuestionsinExperimentationLaboratoryExperimentAsituationinwhichtheresearcherhasmorecompletecontrolovertheresearchsettingandextraneousvariables.FieldExperimentsResearchprojectsinvolvingexperimentalmanipulationsthatareimplementedinanaturalenvironment.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.EXHIBIT9.5

TheArtificialityofLaboratoryversusFieldExperiments©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.IssuesofExperimentalValidityInternalValidityTheextentthatanexperimentalvariableistrulyresponsibleforanyvarianceinthedependentvariable.Didtheexperimentanswerthequestionofcausaleffect?Didthemanipulationdowhatitwassupposed(predicted)todo?ManipulationChecksAvaliditytestofanexperimentalmanipulationtomakesurethatthemanipulationdoesproducedifferencesintheindependentvariable.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.ExtraneousVariablesAffectingInternalValidityInternalValidityMaturationTestingInstrumentationSelectionMortalityHistory©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.EffectsofExtraneousVariablesonValidityHistoryEffectOccurswhensomechangeotherthantheexperimentaltreatmentoccursduringthecourseofanexperimentthataffectsthedependentvariable.CohortEffectAchangeinthedependentvariablethatoccursbecausemembersofoneexperimentalgroupexperienceddifferenthistoricalsituationsthanmembersofotherexperimentalgroups.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.EffectsofExtraneousVariables…(cont’d)MaturationEffectsEffectsthatareafunctionoftimeandthenaturallyoccurringeventsthatcoincidewithgrowthandexperience.TestingEffectsAnuisanceeffectoccurringwhentheinitialmeasurementortestalertsorprimessubjectsinawaythataffectstheirresponsetotheexperimentaltreatments.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.EffectsofExtraneousVariables…(cont’d)InstrumentationEffectAchangeinthewordingofquestions,achangeininterviewers,orachangeinotherprocedurescausesachangeinthedependentvariable.SelectionEffectSamplebiasthatresultsfromdifferentialselectionofrespondentsforthecomparisongroups,orasampleselectionerror.MortalityEffect(SampleAttrition)Occurswhensomesubjectswithdrawfromtheexperimentbeforeitiscompleted.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.IssuesofExperimentalValidity(cont’d)ExternalValidityTheaccuracywithwhichexperimentalresultscanbegeneralizedbeyondtheexperimentalsubjects.Studentsurrogates:Atypical?Trade-OffsBetweenInternalandExternalValidityArtificiallaboratoryexperimentsusuallyarehighininternalvalidity,whilenaturalisticfieldexperimentsgenerallyhavelessinternalvalidity,butgreaterexternalvalidity.©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.ClassificationofExperimentalDesignsBasicExperimentalDesignAnexperimentaldesigninwhichonlyonevariableismanipulated.DiagrammingExperimentalDesigns:Symbols©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.ExamplesofQuasi-ExperimentalDesignsQuasi-experimentalDesignsExperimentaldesignsthatdonotinvolverandomallocationofsubjectstotreatmentcombinations.OneShotDesign(AfterOnly): X O1OneGroupPretest–Posttest: O1 X O2StaticGroupDesign: Experimental X O1

Control O2©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.AlternativeExperimentalDesignsPretest–PosttestControlGroupDesign

(Before–AfterwithControl)Experimental RO1XO2Control RO3XO4

PosttestOnlyControlGroup

(After-OnlywithControl)Experimental RXO1Control RO2CompromiseDesigns©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.EXHIBIT9.3

ProductPreferenceMeasureinanExperiment©2007Thomson/South-Western.Allrightsreserved.Test-MarketingTestMarketingAnexperimentalprocedurethatprovidesanopportunitytotestanewproductoranewmarketingplanunderrealisticmarketconditionstomeasuresalesorprofitpotential.ControlledExperimentationNotjusttryingsomethingou