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实验结论

Inthisargument,thearguerconcludesthat…doing…willleadto…Tosupporttheconclusion,thearguerpointsoutthat…Inaddition,thearguerreasonsthat…

Theargumentsuffersfromseveralcriticalfallacies.

自己应该干吗根据观察和现象

自己改正根据因果

Inthisargument,thearguerrecommendsthat…shouldadvise…to…Tojustifythisclaim,thearguerprovidestheevidencethat…Thus…shouldfollowthestudy’srecommendationand…inorderto…

自己尝试新方法根据预测和假想

Theconclusioninthisargumentisthat…canexpectto…bydoing…Insupportofthisprediction,thearguerclaimsthat…Moreover,thearguerassumesthatthisattempthas…benefits:1)to;2)to;3)to;Thisargumentisfraughtwithvague,oversimplified,andunwarrantedassumptions.

换一个供应商

Inthisargument,theargueradvocatesthat…should…Thisrecommendationisbasedontheobservationthat…Meanwhile,thearguerassumes…tobeabetterchoice…because…Thisargumentisproblematicfor…reasons.

自己应该干吗根据其他州的情况

Inthisanalysis,thearguerclaimsthat…should…Tosubstantiatetheconclusion,thearguercitestheexampleof…where…Inaddition,thearguerassumesthat…Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralcriticalflaws.

正文:

Themajorproblemwiththisargumentisthat…

Anotherflawthatweakensthisargumentisthat.…

Inaddition,thearguerignoresseveralfactorsthatmightunderminetheargument.

…thearguerfailstoconsiderseveralotherrelevantfactorsthatmightinfluence…

Forinstance…since…what’smore…etc.

样本的问题:

Whensamplesareusedtomakegeneralclaimsaboutaparticulargroup,thesamplesshouldbecloseenoughintimetothegenerationtheyareusedtosupport,sothathistoricalchangeswillnotinvalidatethegeneralization

调查survey的问题:

Thesampleofthesurveyconductedbythe…isvague.

Butwearetoldnothingaboutthewaythepollwasconductedandhowwellitrepresentedthepublicopinions..(民意测验)

Howmanypeopleparticipated?

Thesampleofthesurveyisnotrepresentative.

数据的问题:

(平均值)Thestudyrevealed,onaverage,onlyasmallstatisticalcorrelationbetween

(实验的数据不可靠)thedataoftheresearchisunconvincing(样本太小)

thesampleistoosmallto...(光数字没比例)

theratiooffourtosix

thereisonlyfiguresbutnoproportionofthesurvey还是ratio?

InsufficientSample

Ifthe[respondents]onlystandforatinyproportionofthewhole[group],weshouldnotbesosureabouttheconclusionthat[thewholegroup…]

Thearguercommitsafallacyofhastygeneralization.

ItwasonlycarriedoutinSunCity,butthearguerappliesitsresulttoallthecompany’smarketswhiledoesn’tshowuswhetherSunCityisarepresentativemarketofthewholemarkets.

实验组的人:性别,年龄,生理特征

副作用有的病人会对抗生素过敏

错误的类比:

Buttheproblemisthatthetwosituationsarenotsimilarenoughtojustifytheanalogicaldeduction.

错误的比较:

Thecomparisoninthisargumentisincompleteandselective.Thearguerdiscoversthat…

However,thearguerfailstoprovideanyinformationregarding…respectively…

别的因素:

Furthermorethearguerignoresthepossibilitythat…may…Unlesstheargueralsotakesthisfactorintoconsideration,thecomparisonisunconvincing.

Itisverylikelythat…andhence…variessignificantly.

没有因果:

Confusingcausalrelationwithcorrelation

thearguercommitsafallacyofhastygeneralization.EvenifthemaintenanceoftheairlinehasbeenimprovedasaresultofsendingitsmechanicstotheSeminar,whichis,ofcourse,anunwarrantedassumption,itdoesnotfollowthat就算怎样,也不怎样

Finally,thearguerhintsthat…buthefailstoanalyzethecauses.Isitbecause…orbecause…?

-----------------------------------------------------------

其他:

Thefactthat…doesnotnecessarilyimplythat…

Firstofall,theargumentisbasedonahastygeneralization.Accordingtothecitedstudies…whichisunderstandable.

Itisverylikelythat…andhence…variessignificantly.

分析常用:

theactualamountoftimefordoing…respectively…

Thesurveyisbasedontwoisolatedexamples.Thearguershouldsurveymorehospitalsofbothtypes.

Howlargewasthesample

Howmanypeopleparticipated?

Whatextentdothisparticipatorsimprovetheir…speed?

ThearguerfailstoindicatetheattitudeoftheresidentstotheABC'sperformance.

循环假设

Thearguercommitsafallacyofbeggingthequestioninassumingthat…

-------------------------------------------------------------

结尾:

Tosumup,theconclusionlackscredibilitybecausetheevidencecitedintheanalysisdoesnotlendstrongsupporttowhatthearguermaintains.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovidemoreevidenceconcerningthepercentageoftheaffectedfamiliesandtheirgeographicaldistribution.

Insummary,theconclusionreachedinthisargumentisinvalidandmisleading.

Inconclusion,thearguerfailstoestablishacausalrelationshipbetween…Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovideevidencethat…Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationabout…

Asitstands,theargumentisnotwellreasoned.Tomakeitlogicallyacceptable,thearguerwouldhavetodemonstratethat…istheonlyconditionthat…Additionally,thearguermustprovideevidencetoruleoutotherpossiblecausesofthe…

Toconclude,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitstands.范文观摩呀!

Argument37ThefollowingisamemorandumfromthedirectorofpersonneltothepresidentofGet-AwayAirlines.

"Sinceourmechanicsareresponsibleforinspectingandmaintainingouraircraft,Get-AwayAirlinesshouldpaytosendthemtotheQuality-CareSeminar,atwo-weekseminaronpropermaintenanceprocedures.Irecommendthisseminarbecauseitislikelytobeawiseinvestment,giventhattheautomobileracingindustryrecentlyreportedthattheperformanceofitsmaintenancecrewsimprovedmarkedlyaftertheircrewshadattendedtheseminar.Thesemaintenancecrewsperformmanyofthesamefunctionsasdoourmechanics,includingrefuelingandrepairingengines.Themoneywespendonsendingourstafftotheseminarwillinevitablyleadtoimprovedmaintenanceandthustogreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofitsforourairline."[建议,看别人好自己也要]

Inthisargument,thearguerconcludesthatsendingthemechanicsofGet-AwayAirlinestoatwo-weekQuality-CareSeminaronpropermaintenanceprocedureswillautomaticallyleadtoimprovedmaintenanceandtogreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofitsfortheairline.Tosupporttheconclusion,thearguerpointsoutthattheperformanceofthemaintenancecrewsintheautomobileracingindustryimprovedmarkedlyaftertheircrewshadattendedtheseminar.Inaddition,thearguerreasonsthatsincethemaintenancecrewsoftheautomobileracingindustryandthemechanicsofGet-AwayAirlinesperformmanyofthesamefunctions,theairlineswillgainsimilarbenefitsfromthetrainingprogram.Thisargumentsuffersfromseveralcriticalfallacies.

First,theargumentIsbasedonafalseanalogy.Thearguersimplyassumesthatairplanemechanicsandautomobilemaintenancecrewsperformmanysimilarfunctions,buthedoesnotprovideanyevidencethattheirfunctionsareindeedcomparable.Asweknow,thestructure,operationandfunctionofairplanesandthoseofautomobilesdifferconspicuously.Itistruethatboththeairplaneandtheautomobileneedrefuelingandenginemaintenance,butevenherethereexistfundamentaldifferences:thestructureandthebuildingmaterialsofeachother'senginesaredifferent,soistheoiltheyuse.Therefore,eventhoughthetwo-weekQuality-CareSeminarprovedeffectiveinimprovingtheperformanceofthemaintenancecrewsintheautomobileracingindustry,thereisnoguaranteethatitwillworkjustaswellforairplanemechanics.

Second,thearguercommitsafallacyofhastygeneralization.EvenifthemaintenanceoftheairlinehasbeenimprovedasaresultofsendingitsmechanicstotheSeminar,whichis,ofcourse,anunwarrantedassumption,itdoesnotfollowthattherewillbegreaterprofitsaswellasgreatercustomersatisfactionfortheairline.Asweknow,customersatisfactiondependsonseveralmajorfactorsotherthangoodmaintenanceoftheairplane.Forinstance,customersaregenerallyconcernedaboutthepunctuality,theon-boardservice,theticketprice,theluggagehandlingprocedureandeventhediscount,allofwhichareignoredbythearguer.Besides,thearguerdoesnotprovideanysolidinformationconcerninghowtheairplanecanimproveitsprofits.UnlessGet-AwayAirlinescansignificantlyincreaseitscustomersorpassengersandatthesametimecutdownitscosts,bothofwhichareunknownfromthisargument,thereisnoguaranteethatitwill"inevitably"harvestgreaterprofits.Actually,thearguer'srecommendationofinvestinginthistrainingprogramastheonlywaytoincreasecustomersatisfactionandprofitswouldmostprobablyturnouttobeineffectiveandmisleading.

Inconclusion,thearguerfailstoestablishacausalrelationshipbetweensendingGet-Away'smechanicstotheQuality-CareSeminarandimprovedmaintenance,greatercustomersatisfactionandgreaterprofitsfortheairline.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatautomobilemaintenanceandairplanemaintenancearesimilarineveryaspect.Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationabouttherelationshipbetweenimprovedmaintenanceandgreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofits.Argument47:ThenationofClariacoversavastphysicalarea.Butdespitewidegeographicdifferences,manycitizensareexperiencingrisingcostsofelectricity.ArecentstudyofhouseholdelectriccostsinClariafoundthatfamilieswhocooledtheirhouseswithfansalonespentmoreonelectricitythandidfamiliesusingairconditionersaloneforcooling.However,thosehouseholdsthatreportedusingbothfansandairconditionersspentlessonelectricitythanthosehouseholdsthatusedeitherfansorairconditionersalone.Thus,thecitizensofClariashouldfollowthestudy'srecommendationandusebothairconditionersandfansinordertosavemoneyonelectricity.[建议,根据不科学调查]

Inthisargument,thearguerrecommendsthatClariashouldadviseitscitizenstoinstallbothairconditionersandfansforcoolinginordertoreducethecostofelectricity.Tojustifythisclaim,thearguerprovidestheevidencethatmanycitizensofClariasufferfromtherisingcostsofelectricity.Inaddition,hecitestheresultofarecentstudythatusingfansalonecostsmorethanusingairconditionersalone,andthatusingbothairconditionersandfanscostslessthaneitherusingfansorairconditionersalone.Acarefulexaminationofthisargumentwouldrevealhowgroundlesstheconclusionis.

Inthefirstplace,thearguerfailstotakeintoaccountthegeographicalfactorsintheanalysis.WhileweareinformedthattherearewidegeographicaldifferencesinthenationofClaria,andthatmanycitizensareexperiencingrisingcostsofelectricity,thearguerfailstomakecleartheexactnumberofthosecitizensortheirpercentageinthenationalpopulation,aswellasthegeographicaldistributionofthesecitizens.Ifonlyasmallportionofthewholepopulationareexperiencingtherisingcostsofelectricitywhilemostfamiliesdonothavesimilarexperience,thenthereasonmightbethattheformerdonotuseelectricitysparingly.Inthiscase,therisingcostsofthosefamilieshavenothingtodowithwhatkindofelectricappliancetheyusetocooltheirhouses.Orifonlyfamilieslivinginhotareasarespendingmoremoneyoncooling,thenitisunwisetorequirecitizenslivingintemperateandfrigidzonestoinstallbothfansandairconditioners.Intheabsenceofallthisinformation,itisimpossibleforustoevaluatetherecommendedpolicythatisintendedtohelpeveryhouseholdnationwidetoreducetheirelectricitycost.

Inthesecondplace,thecomparisoninthisargumentisincompleteandselective.Thearguerdiscoversthatusingfansaloneismorecosteffectivethanusingairconditionersalone,andthatusingbothfansandairconditionersaretheleastexpensivewayofcooling.However,thearguerfailstoprovideanyinformationregardingtheactualamountoftimeforusing,respectively,fansalone,airconditionersalone,andbothfansandairconditionersinthosethreegroupsofsurveyedfamilies.ItisverylikelythatthesethreegroupsoffamiliesarelocatedinthreeverydifferentclimaticregionsofClaria,andhencetheamountofdaysoftheyearduringwhichtheyneedtocooltheirhousesvariessignificantly.Familieslivingincoolerareasofthenationcertainlycooltheirhousesforfewerhoursandhenceuselesselectricitythanfamilieslivinginhotareas,nomatterwhatcoolingappliancetheyuse.Unlesswearecertainthatthesurveyedfamiliesliveinthesameclimaticregion,orthattheyneedtocooltheirhousesforthesameamountofhoursinthesameyearalthoughtheyliveindifferentregions,whichisveryunlikely,wehaveeveryreasontodoubtthetrustworthinessofthiscomparativestudy.Furthermore,thearguerignoresthepossibilitythatthefamilieswhoarespendingmoreonelectricitymaybeusingmoreelectricityforpurposesother-thancooling.Unlesstheargueralsotakesthisfactorintoconsideration,thecomparisonisunconvincing.

Tosumup,theconclusionlackscredibilitybecausetheevidencecitedintheanalysisdoesnotlendstrongsupporttowhatthearguermaintains.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovidemoreevidenceconcerningthepercentageoftheaffectedfamiliesandtheirgeographicaldistribution.Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationregardingtheelectricexpenserelevanttotheactualamountoftimeforcoolingamong,respectively,thethreegroupsofhouseholdsandtheamountofelectricityusedforotherpurposesinallthreegroupsoffamiliesundersurvey.Argument57:ThefollowingappearedinaletterfromadepartmentchairpersontothepresidentofPierceUniversity.

"SomestudiesconductedbyBronstonCollege,whichisalsolocatedinasmalltown,revealthatbothmateandfemaleprofessorsarehappierlivinginsmalltownswhentheirspousesarealsoemployedinthesamegeographicarea.Therefore,intheinterestofattractingthemostgiftedteachersandresearcherstoourfacultyandimprovingthemoraleofourentirestaff,weatPierceUniversityshouldofferemploymenttothespouseofeachnewfacultymemberwehire.Althoughwecannotexpectallofferstobeacceptedortobeviewedasanidealjoboffer,themoneyinvestedinthiseffortwillclearlybewellspentbecause,iftheirspouseshaveachanceofemployment,newprofessorswillbemorelikelytoacceptouroffers."[建议,看人家好自己也要]

Inthisanalysis,thearguerclaimsthatPierceUniversityshouldofferemploymenttothespouseofeachnewfacultymemberthattheyhire.Tosubstantiatetheconclusion,thearguercitestheexampleofBronstonCollegewhereprofessorsprefertohavetheirspouseemployedinthesamegeographicalarea.Inaddition,thearguerassumesthatthisofferofapossiblejobfortheirspouseonthecampus,nomatterwhetheritwillbeaccepted,istheonlyfactorthatnewprofessorsconsiderindecidingwhethertoacceptauniversityposition.Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralcriticalflaws.

Firstofall,theargumentisbasedonahastygeneralization.Accordingtothecitedstudies,professorsatBronstonCollegearehappierlivinginsmalltownswhentheirspousesarealsoemployedinthelocalareathanwhentheirspousesworkindistantareas,whichisunderstandable.Thisfacttellsverylittleaboutwhatactualconditionstheprofessorsoftenconsiderasimportantwhentheychoosewheretowork.Evenifweacceptthearguer'sassumptionthatwhethertheirspousecanfindajobinthelocalareaistheonlyimportantquestionthatnewprofessorsconsiderwhentheydecidewhethertoacceptanofferinauniversitysituatedinasmalltown,thearguer'srecommendationisstillunconvincing.Onlywhentheofferofemploymenttothespouseisregardedasanidealoneandthereforeacceptedisitlikelythattheprofessorwillconsideracceptingtheuniversity'soffer.Consequently,itisunwarrantedtoassumethatnewprofessorswillacceptPierce'sofferwhethertheirspousecanfindsatisfactoryemploymentinthelocalarea.

Inaddition,thearguerfailstoconsiderseveralotherrelevantfactorsthatmayinfluencenewprofessors'decision.Forinstance,sincePierce'slocationisnotideal,thepayitoffersshouldbehighenoughtobeattractive.Newgiftedprofessorsarealsoconcernedaboutthepositiontheycanhaveandthecoursestheyaresupposedtoteachinthenewuniversity.What'smore,whatresearcherscaremostaboutmightbetheuniversity'sresearchconditionssuchaslaboratoryequipments,adequateresearchfunds,etc.

Finally,thearguerhintsthatthemoraleofPierce'sentirestaffislow,buthefailstoanalyzethecauses.Isitbecausethemanagementoftheuniversityispoor,orbecausethepayistoolow,orbecausethelocalareasuffersfromeconomicdepression,orbecausethelocalenvironmentisseverelydamagedbyindustrialpollution?Underthesecircumstances,offeringemploymenttothespousewouldbeineffectiveatallforthepurposeofattractingmorenewprofessors.Furthermore,iftheseproblemsdoexist,evenifPiercesucceedsinhiringmanyofthemostgiftedteachersandresearchersofthecountry,thegeneralmoraleofthewholefacultywouldremainlow.

Asitstands,theargumentisnotwellreasoned.Tomakeitlogicallyacceptable,thearguerwouldhavetodemonstratethatanofferofemploymenttothespouseistheonlyconditionthatnewprofessorsconsideronacceptingPierce'soffer.Additionally,thearguermustprovideevidencetoruleoutotherpossiblecausesofthelowstaffmoraleattheuniversity.Argument67:ThefollowingisamemorandumwrittenbythedirectorofpersonneltothepresidentoftheCedarCorporation.

"ItwouldbeamistaketorehiretheGood-TasteCompanytosupplythefoodinouremployeecafeterianextyear.Itisthesecondmostexpensivecatererinthecity.Inaddition,itspriceshaverisenineachofthelastthreeyears,anditrefusestoprovidemealsforpeopleonspecialdiets.Justlastmonththreeemployeescomplainedtomethattheynolongereatinthecafeteriabecausetheyfindtheexperienceunbearable.OurcompanyshouldinsteadhireDiscountFoods.Discountisafamily-ownedlocalcompanyanditoffersavariedmenuoffishandpoultry.IrecentlytastedasamplelunchatoneofthemanycompaniesthatDiscountservesanditwasdelicious—anindicationthathiringDiscountwillleadtoimprovedemployeesatisfaction."[建议,更换供应商]

Inthisargument,theargueradvocatesthattheCedarCorporationshouldhireDiscountFoods,afamily-ownedlocalcompanythatoffersavariedmenuoffishandpoultry,insteadoftheGood-TasteCompany,thepresentsupplieroffoodinCedar'semployeecafeteria.ThisrecommendationisbasedontheobservationthattheGood-Tasteisexpensive,thatitspriceshavekeptrising,thatitdoesnotservespecialdiets,andthatthreeemployeescomplainedaboutit.Meanwhile,thearguerassumesDiscounttobeabetterchoiceforCedarbecauseasamplelunchofthiscompanythatthearguerhappenedtotastewasdelicious.Thisargumentisproblematicfortworeasons.

ThemajorproblemwiththisargumentisthatthearguerfailstoconvinceusthatCedar'spresentsuppliertheGood-Tasteshouldbefired.First,thefactthattheGood-Tasteisthesecondmostexpensivecatererinthecitymaybeduetoitsbetterfoods,qualityserviceandhighreputationinthisindustry.Second,thefactthatitspriceshavebeenrisingforthelastthreeyearsmaybeduetonationwideinflationortherisingcostinthefoodindustry.Third,thefactthatGood-TasterefusestoservespecialdietsdoesnotindicatethatitcannotmeettheneedsofCedarCorporationunlessthearguercandemonstratethatGood-Tasteservedspecialdietsatfirstandnowitrefusestodoso,hencedisappointingCedar'semployees,andthatmanyormostofCedar'semployeesareonspecialdiets.Finally,thearguerfailstoexplainwhythreeemployeescomplained,whichmakesitimpossibleforustoevaluatetheoverallserviceofGood-Taste.Maybethesethreepeoplearethosefewonspecialdiets.Eveniftheyhaveeveryreasontocomplainaboutthefoodsorserviceofthesupplieronacertainday,thesethreepeople'sopinionlacksthenecessaryrepresentativenessbasedonwhichwecanmakeanygeneraljudgmentconcerningtheoverallperformanceofGood-Taste.

Anotherpointworthconsideringisthearguer'shastygeneralization.WeareinformedthatDiscountservesfishandpoultry,butwedonotknowwhetherCedar'semployeesallpreferthislimitedmenu.Wecanbelievethatonesamplelunchthatthearguerhappenedtotastewasindeeddelicious,butbasedonthissliminformation,wecanneverevaluatetheoverallperformanceofDiscount.

Toconclude,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitstands.Beforeweaccepttheconclusion,thearguermustpresentmorefactsthatGood-TastehasindeedfailedtomeettherequirementsofCedarCorporation.Tosolidifytheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoproducemoreevidenceconcerningthefoodsandserviceofDiscountandhowtheycanbettermeettheneedsofCedar'semployees.Argument77:ThefollowingisarecommendationfromthedeanatFoleyCollege,asmallliberalartscollege,tothepresidentofthecollege.

"Sincecollege-boundstudentsareincreasinglyconcernedaboutjobprospectsaftergraduation,Foley[建议,根据不科学假想]

Theconclusionin

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