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开头
实验结论
Inthisargument,thearguerconcludesthat…doing…willleadto…Tosupporttheconclusion,thearguerpointsoutthat…Inaddition,thearguerreasonsthat…
Theargumentsuffersfromseveralcriticalfallacies.
自己应该干吗根据观察和现象
自己改正根据因果
Inthisargument,thearguerrecommendsthat…shouldadvise…to…Tojustifythisclaim,thearguerprovidestheevidencethat…Thus…shouldfollowthestudy’srecommendationand…inorderto…
自己尝试新方法根据预测和假想
Theconclusioninthisargumentisthat…canexpectto…bydoing…Insupportofthisprediction,thearguerclaimsthat…Moreover,thearguerassumesthatthisattempthas…benefits:1)to;2)to;3)to;Thisargumentisfraughtwithvague,oversimplified,andunwarrantedassumptions.
换一个供应商
Inthisargument,theargueradvocatesthat…should…Thisrecommendationisbasedontheobservationthat…Meanwhile,thearguerassumes…tobeabetterchoice…because…Thisargumentisproblematicfor…reasons.
自己应该干吗根据其他州的情况
Inthisanalysis,thearguerclaimsthat…should…Tosubstantiatetheconclusion,thearguercitestheexampleof…where…Inaddition,thearguerassumesthat…Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralcriticalflaws.
正文:
Themajorproblemwiththisargumentisthat…
Anotherflawthatweakensthisargumentisthat.…
Inaddition,thearguerignoresseveralfactorsthatmightunderminetheargument.
…thearguerfailstoconsiderseveralotherrelevantfactorsthatmightinfluence…
Forinstance…since…what’smore…etc.
样本的问题:
Whensamplesareusedtomakegeneralclaimsaboutaparticulargroup,thesamplesshouldbecloseenoughintimetothegenerationtheyareusedtosupport,sothathistoricalchangeswillnotinvalidatethegeneralization
调查survey的问题:
Thesampleofthesurveyconductedbythe…isvague.
Butwearetoldnothingaboutthewaythepollwasconductedandhowwellitrepresentedthepublicopinions..(民意测验)
Howmanypeopleparticipated?
Thesampleofthesurveyisnotrepresentative.
数据的问题:
(平均值)Thestudyrevealed,onaverage,onlyasmallstatisticalcorrelationbetween
(实验的数据不可靠)thedataoftheresearchisunconvincing(样本太小)
thesampleistoosmallto...(光数字没比例)
theratiooffourtosix
thereisonlyfiguresbutnoproportionofthesurvey还是ratio?
InsufficientSample
Ifthe[respondents]onlystandforatinyproportionofthewhole[group],weshouldnotbesosureabouttheconclusionthat[thewholegroup…]
Thearguercommitsafallacyofhastygeneralization.
ItwasonlycarriedoutinSunCity,butthearguerappliesitsresulttoallthecompany’smarketswhiledoesn’tshowuswhetherSunCityisarepresentativemarketofthewholemarkets.
实验组的人:性别,年龄,生理特征
副作用有的病人会对抗生素过敏
错误的类比:
Buttheproblemisthatthetwosituationsarenotsimilarenoughtojustifytheanalogicaldeduction.
错误的比较:
Thecomparisoninthisargumentisincompleteandselective.Thearguerdiscoversthat…
However,thearguerfailstoprovideanyinformationregarding…respectively…
别的因素:
Furthermorethearguerignoresthepossibilitythat…may…Unlesstheargueralsotakesthisfactorintoconsideration,thecomparisonisunconvincing.
Itisverylikelythat…andhence…variessignificantly.
没有因果:
Confusingcausalrelationwithcorrelation
thearguercommitsafallacyofhastygeneralization.EvenifthemaintenanceoftheairlinehasbeenimprovedasaresultofsendingitsmechanicstotheSeminar,whichis,ofcourse,anunwarrantedassumption,itdoesnotfollowthat就算怎样,也不怎样
Finally,thearguerhintsthat…buthefailstoanalyzethecauses.Isitbecause…orbecause…?
-----------------------------------------------------------
其他:
Thefactthat…doesnotnecessarilyimplythat…
Firstofall,theargumentisbasedonahastygeneralization.Accordingtothecitedstudies…whichisunderstandable.
Itisverylikelythat…andhence…variessignificantly.
分析常用:
theactualamountoftimefordoing…respectively…
Thesurveyisbasedontwoisolatedexamples.Thearguershouldsurveymorehospitalsofbothtypes.
Howlargewasthesample
Howmanypeopleparticipated?
Whatextentdothisparticipatorsimprovetheir…speed?
ThearguerfailstoindicatetheattitudeoftheresidentstotheABC'sperformance.
循环假设
Thearguercommitsafallacyofbeggingthequestioninassumingthat…
-------------------------------------------------------------
结尾:
Tosumup,theconclusionlackscredibilitybecausetheevidencecitedintheanalysisdoesnotlendstrongsupporttowhatthearguermaintains.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovidemoreevidenceconcerningthepercentageoftheaffectedfamiliesandtheirgeographicaldistribution.
Insummary,theconclusionreachedinthisargumentisinvalidandmisleading.
Inconclusion,thearguerfailstoestablishacausalrelationshipbetween…Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovideevidencethat…Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationabout…
Asitstands,theargumentisnotwellreasoned.Tomakeitlogicallyacceptable,thearguerwouldhavetodemonstratethat…istheonlyconditionthat…Additionally,thearguermustprovideevidencetoruleoutotherpossiblecausesofthe…
Toconclude,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitstands.范文观摩呀!
Argument37ThefollowingisamemorandumfromthedirectorofpersonneltothepresidentofGet-AwayAirlines.
"Sinceourmechanicsareresponsibleforinspectingandmaintainingouraircraft,Get-AwayAirlinesshouldpaytosendthemtotheQuality-CareSeminar,atwo-weekseminaronpropermaintenanceprocedures.Irecommendthisseminarbecauseitislikelytobeawiseinvestment,giventhattheautomobileracingindustryrecentlyreportedthattheperformanceofitsmaintenancecrewsimprovedmarkedlyaftertheircrewshadattendedtheseminar.Thesemaintenancecrewsperformmanyofthesamefunctionsasdoourmechanics,includingrefuelingandrepairingengines.Themoneywespendonsendingourstafftotheseminarwillinevitablyleadtoimprovedmaintenanceandthustogreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofitsforourairline."[建议,看别人好自己也要]
Inthisargument,thearguerconcludesthatsendingthemechanicsofGet-AwayAirlinestoatwo-weekQuality-CareSeminaronpropermaintenanceprocedureswillautomaticallyleadtoimprovedmaintenanceandtogreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofitsfortheairline.Tosupporttheconclusion,thearguerpointsoutthattheperformanceofthemaintenancecrewsintheautomobileracingindustryimprovedmarkedlyaftertheircrewshadattendedtheseminar.Inaddition,thearguerreasonsthatsincethemaintenancecrewsoftheautomobileracingindustryandthemechanicsofGet-AwayAirlinesperformmanyofthesamefunctions,theairlineswillgainsimilarbenefitsfromthetrainingprogram.Thisargumentsuffersfromseveralcriticalfallacies.
First,theargumentIsbasedonafalseanalogy.Thearguersimplyassumesthatairplanemechanicsandautomobilemaintenancecrewsperformmanysimilarfunctions,buthedoesnotprovideanyevidencethattheirfunctionsareindeedcomparable.Asweknow,thestructure,operationandfunctionofairplanesandthoseofautomobilesdifferconspicuously.Itistruethatboththeairplaneandtheautomobileneedrefuelingandenginemaintenance,butevenherethereexistfundamentaldifferences:thestructureandthebuildingmaterialsofeachother'senginesaredifferent,soistheoiltheyuse.Therefore,eventhoughthetwo-weekQuality-CareSeminarprovedeffectiveinimprovingtheperformanceofthemaintenancecrewsintheautomobileracingindustry,thereisnoguaranteethatitwillworkjustaswellforairplanemechanics.
Second,thearguercommitsafallacyofhastygeneralization.EvenifthemaintenanceoftheairlinehasbeenimprovedasaresultofsendingitsmechanicstotheSeminar,whichis,ofcourse,anunwarrantedassumption,itdoesnotfollowthattherewillbegreaterprofitsaswellasgreatercustomersatisfactionfortheairline.Asweknow,customersatisfactiondependsonseveralmajorfactorsotherthangoodmaintenanceoftheairplane.Forinstance,customersaregenerallyconcernedaboutthepunctuality,theon-boardservice,theticketprice,theluggagehandlingprocedureandeventhediscount,allofwhichareignoredbythearguer.Besides,thearguerdoesnotprovideanysolidinformationconcerninghowtheairplanecanimproveitsprofits.UnlessGet-AwayAirlinescansignificantlyincreaseitscustomersorpassengersandatthesametimecutdownitscosts,bothofwhichareunknownfromthisargument,thereisnoguaranteethatitwill"inevitably"harvestgreaterprofits.Actually,thearguer'srecommendationofinvestinginthistrainingprogramastheonlywaytoincreasecustomersatisfactionandprofitswouldmostprobablyturnouttobeineffectiveandmisleading.
Inconclusion,thearguerfailstoestablishacausalrelationshipbetweensendingGet-Away'smechanicstotheQuality-CareSeminarandimprovedmaintenance,greatercustomersatisfactionandgreaterprofitsfortheairline.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatautomobilemaintenanceandairplanemaintenancearesimilarineveryaspect.Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationabouttherelationshipbetweenimprovedmaintenanceandgreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofits.Argument47:ThenationofClariacoversavastphysicalarea.Butdespitewidegeographicdifferences,manycitizensareexperiencingrisingcostsofelectricity.ArecentstudyofhouseholdelectriccostsinClariafoundthatfamilieswhocooledtheirhouseswithfansalonespentmoreonelectricitythandidfamiliesusingairconditionersaloneforcooling.However,thosehouseholdsthatreportedusingbothfansandairconditionersspentlessonelectricitythanthosehouseholdsthatusedeitherfansorairconditionersalone.Thus,thecitizensofClariashouldfollowthestudy'srecommendationandusebothairconditionersandfansinordertosavemoneyonelectricity.[建议,根据不科学调查]
Inthisargument,thearguerrecommendsthatClariashouldadviseitscitizenstoinstallbothairconditionersandfansforcoolinginordertoreducethecostofelectricity.Tojustifythisclaim,thearguerprovidestheevidencethatmanycitizensofClariasufferfromtherisingcostsofelectricity.Inaddition,hecitestheresultofarecentstudythatusingfansalonecostsmorethanusingairconditionersalone,andthatusingbothairconditionersandfanscostslessthaneitherusingfansorairconditionersalone.Acarefulexaminationofthisargumentwouldrevealhowgroundlesstheconclusionis.
Inthefirstplace,thearguerfailstotakeintoaccountthegeographicalfactorsintheanalysis.WhileweareinformedthattherearewidegeographicaldifferencesinthenationofClaria,andthatmanycitizensareexperiencingrisingcostsofelectricity,thearguerfailstomakecleartheexactnumberofthosecitizensortheirpercentageinthenationalpopulation,aswellasthegeographicaldistributionofthesecitizens.Ifonlyasmallportionofthewholepopulationareexperiencingtherisingcostsofelectricitywhilemostfamiliesdonothavesimilarexperience,thenthereasonmightbethattheformerdonotuseelectricitysparingly.Inthiscase,therisingcostsofthosefamilieshavenothingtodowithwhatkindofelectricappliancetheyusetocooltheirhouses.Orifonlyfamilieslivinginhotareasarespendingmoremoneyoncooling,thenitisunwisetorequirecitizenslivingintemperateandfrigidzonestoinstallbothfansandairconditioners.Intheabsenceofallthisinformation,itisimpossibleforustoevaluatetherecommendedpolicythatisintendedtohelpeveryhouseholdnationwidetoreducetheirelectricitycost.
Inthesecondplace,thecomparisoninthisargumentisincompleteandselective.Thearguerdiscoversthatusingfansaloneismorecosteffectivethanusingairconditionersalone,andthatusingbothfansandairconditionersaretheleastexpensivewayofcooling.However,thearguerfailstoprovideanyinformationregardingtheactualamountoftimeforusing,respectively,fansalone,airconditionersalone,andbothfansandairconditionersinthosethreegroupsofsurveyedfamilies.ItisverylikelythatthesethreegroupsoffamiliesarelocatedinthreeverydifferentclimaticregionsofClaria,andhencetheamountofdaysoftheyearduringwhichtheyneedtocooltheirhousesvariessignificantly.Familieslivingincoolerareasofthenationcertainlycooltheirhousesforfewerhoursandhenceuselesselectricitythanfamilieslivinginhotareas,nomatterwhatcoolingappliancetheyuse.Unlesswearecertainthatthesurveyedfamiliesliveinthesameclimaticregion,orthattheyneedtocooltheirhousesforthesameamountofhoursinthesameyearalthoughtheyliveindifferentregions,whichisveryunlikely,wehaveeveryreasontodoubtthetrustworthinessofthiscomparativestudy.Furthermore,thearguerignoresthepossibilitythatthefamilieswhoarespendingmoreonelectricitymaybeusingmoreelectricityforpurposesother-thancooling.Unlesstheargueralsotakesthisfactorintoconsideration,thecomparisonisunconvincing.
Tosumup,theconclusionlackscredibilitybecausetheevidencecitedintheanalysisdoesnotlendstrongsupporttowhatthearguermaintains.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovidemoreevidenceconcerningthepercentageoftheaffectedfamiliesandtheirgeographicaldistribution.Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationregardingtheelectricexpenserelevanttotheactualamountoftimeforcoolingamong,respectively,thethreegroupsofhouseholdsandtheamountofelectricityusedforotherpurposesinallthreegroupsoffamiliesundersurvey.Argument57:ThefollowingappearedinaletterfromadepartmentchairpersontothepresidentofPierceUniversity.
"SomestudiesconductedbyBronstonCollege,whichisalsolocatedinasmalltown,revealthatbothmateandfemaleprofessorsarehappierlivinginsmalltownswhentheirspousesarealsoemployedinthesamegeographicarea.Therefore,intheinterestofattractingthemostgiftedteachersandresearcherstoourfacultyandimprovingthemoraleofourentirestaff,weatPierceUniversityshouldofferemploymenttothespouseofeachnewfacultymemberwehire.Althoughwecannotexpectallofferstobeacceptedortobeviewedasanidealjoboffer,themoneyinvestedinthiseffortwillclearlybewellspentbecause,iftheirspouseshaveachanceofemployment,newprofessorswillbemorelikelytoacceptouroffers."[建议,看人家好自己也要]
Inthisanalysis,thearguerclaimsthatPierceUniversityshouldofferemploymenttothespouseofeachnewfacultymemberthattheyhire.Tosubstantiatetheconclusion,thearguercitestheexampleofBronstonCollegewhereprofessorsprefertohavetheirspouseemployedinthesamegeographicalarea.Inaddition,thearguerassumesthatthisofferofapossiblejobfortheirspouseonthecampus,nomatterwhetheritwillbeaccepted,istheonlyfactorthatnewprofessorsconsiderindecidingwhethertoacceptauniversityposition.Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralcriticalflaws.
Firstofall,theargumentisbasedonahastygeneralization.Accordingtothecitedstudies,professorsatBronstonCollegearehappierlivinginsmalltownswhentheirspousesarealsoemployedinthelocalareathanwhentheirspousesworkindistantareas,whichisunderstandable.Thisfacttellsverylittleaboutwhatactualconditionstheprofessorsoftenconsiderasimportantwhentheychoosewheretowork.Evenifweacceptthearguer'sassumptionthatwhethertheirspousecanfindajobinthelocalareaistheonlyimportantquestionthatnewprofessorsconsiderwhentheydecidewhethertoacceptanofferinauniversitysituatedinasmalltown,thearguer'srecommendationisstillunconvincing.Onlywhentheofferofemploymenttothespouseisregardedasanidealoneandthereforeacceptedisitlikelythattheprofessorwillconsideracceptingtheuniversity'soffer.Consequently,itisunwarrantedtoassumethatnewprofessorswillacceptPierce'sofferwhethertheirspousecanfindsatisfactoryemploymentinthelocalarea.
Inaddition,thearguerfailstoconsiderseveralotherrelevantfactorsthatmayinfluencenewprofessors'decision.Forinstance,sincePierce'slocationisnotideal,thepayitoffersshouldbehighenoughtobeattractive.Newgiftedprofessorsarealsoconcernedaboutthepositiontheycanhaveandthecoursestheyaresupposedtoteachinthenewuniversity.What'smore,whatresearcherscaremostaboutmightbetheuniversity'sresearchconditionssuchaslaboratoryequipments,adequateresearchfunds,etc.
Finally,thearguerhintsthatthemoraleofPierce'sentirestaffislow,buthefailstoanalyzethecauses.Isitbecausethemanagementoftheuniversityispoor,orbecausethepayistoolow,orbecausethelocalareasuffersfromeconomicdepression,orbecausethelocalenvironmentisseverelydamagedbyindustrialpollution?Underthesecircumstances,offeringemploymenttothespousewouldbeineffectiveatallforthepurposeofattractingmorenewprofessors.Furthermore,iftheseproblemsdoexist,evenifPiercesucceedsinhiringmanyofthemostgiftedteachersandresearchersofthecountry,thegeneralmoraleofthewholefacultywouldremainlow.
Asitstands,theargumentisnotwellreasoned.Tomakeitlogicallyacceptable,thearguerwouldhavetodemonstratethatanofferofemploymenttothespouseistheonlyconditionthatnewprofessorsconsideronacceptingPierce'soffer.Additionally,thearguermustprovideevidencetoruleoutotherpossiblecausesofthelowstaffmoraleattheuniversity.Argument67:ThefollowingisamemorandumwrittenbythedirectorofpersonneltothepresidentoftheCedarCorporation.
"ItwouldbeamistaketorehiretheGood-TasteCompanytosupplythefoodinouremployeecafeterianextyear.Itisthesecondmostexpensivecatererinthecity.Inaddition,itspriceshaverisenineachofthelastthreeyears,anditrefusestoprovidemealsforpeopleonspecialdiets.Justlastmonththreeemployeescomplainedtomethattheynolongereatinthecafeteriabecausetheyfindtheexperienceunbearable.OurcompanyshouldinsteadhireDiscountFoods.Discountisafamily-ownedlocalcompanyanditoffersavariedmenuoffishandpoultry.IrecentlytastedasamplelunchatoneofthemanycompaniesthatDiscountservesanditwasdelicious—anindicationthathiringDiscountwillleadtoimprovedemployeesatisfaction."[建议,更换供应商]
Inthisargument,theargueradvocatesthattheCedarCorporationshouldhireDiscountFoods,afamily-ownedlocalcompanythatoffersavariedmenuoffishandpoultry,insteadoftheGood-TasteCompany,thepresentsupplieroffoodinCedar'semployeecafeteria.ThisrecommendationisbasedontheobservationthattheGood-Tasteisexpensive,thatitspriceshavekeptrising,thatitdoesnotservespecialdiets,andthatthreeemployeescomplainedaboutit.Meanwhile,thearguerassumesDiscounttobeabetterchoiceforCedarbecauseasamplelunchofthiscompanythatthearguerhappenedtotastewasdelicious.Thisargumentisproblematicfortworeasons.
ThemajorproblemwiththisargumentisthatthearguerfailstoconvinceusthatCedar'spresentsuppliertheGood-Tasteshouldbefired.First,thefactthattheGood-Tasteisthesecondmostexpensivecatererinthecitymaybeduetoitsbetterfoods,qualityserviceandhighreputationinthisindustry.Second,thefactthatitspriceshavebeenrisingforthelastthreeyearsmaybeduetonationwideinflationortherisingcostinthefoodindustry.Third,thefactthatGood-TasterefusestoservespecialdietsdoesnotindicatethatitcannotmeettheneedsofCedarCorporationunlessthearguercandemonstratethatGood-Tasteservedspecialdietsatfirstandnowitrefusestodoso,hencedisappointingCedar'semployees,andthatmanyormostofCedar'semployeesareonspecialdiets.Finally,thearguerfailstoexplainwhythreeemployeescomplained,whichmakesitimpossibleforustoevaluatetheoverallserviceofGood-Taste.Maybethesethreepeoplearethosefewonspecialdiets.Eveniftheyhaveeveryreasontocomplainaboutthefoodsorserviceofthesupplieronacertainday,thesethreepeople'sopinionlacksthenecessaryrepresentativenessbasedonwhichwecanmakeanygeneraljudgmentconcerningtheoverallperformanceofGood-Taste.
Anotherpointworthconsideringisthearguer'shastygeneralization.WeareinformedthatDiscountservesfishandpoultry,butwedonotknowwhetherCedar'semployeesallpreferthislimitedmenu.Wecanbelievethatonesamplelunchthatthearguerhappenedtotastewasindeeddelicious,butbasedonthissliminformation,wecanneverevaluatetheoverallperformanceofDiscount.
Toconclude,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitstands.Beforeweaccepttheconclusion,thearguermustpresentmorefactsthatGood-TastehasindeedfailedtomeettherequirementsofCedarCorporation.Tosolidifytheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoproducemoreevidenceconcerningthefoodsandserviceofDiscountandhowtheycanbettermeettheneedsofCedar'semployees.Argument77:ThefollowingisarecommendationfromthedeanatFoleyCollege,asmallliberalartscollege,tothepresidentofthecollege.
"Sincecollege-boundstudentsareincreasinglyconcernedaboutjobprospectsaftergraduation,Foley[建议,根据不科学假想]
Theconclusionin
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